1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: We're going to get Ben Ben Thomas is not answering 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: the phone to talk about the pole. If you know 3 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: Ben Thomas, can you get Ben Thomas to because it's 4 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 1: not a surprise, not a surprise really and at all. 5 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:11,000 Speaker 1: If you could get Ben Thomas to answer the phone, 6 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: that'll be fantastic. In the meantime, I'm going to run 7 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: you through the results of the pole if you haven't 8 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: already heard it. This is the Taxpayer Union Curier poll. 9 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: Nats are, unfortunately, for the first time in the two's 10 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 1: twenty nine points six down three and a half points. 11 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: New Zealand First has gained a lot of that. They're 12 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: up to and a half points. They're sitting it close 13 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: to eleven acts, down ever so slightly just under seven. 14 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: Labor is now the biggest party on thirty one, Green's 15 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: are on twelve, Malordi parties on four and a half. 16 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: Former National Party staffer Ben Thomas has answered the phone 17 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: and is with us. Hello, Ben Chiota here, What are 18 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: you putting this down to? Is this just reacting to 19 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: the GDP shock. 20 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 2: Well, I don't think it's the GDP shock, you know, 21 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 2: in terms of the release of a statistic. I think 22 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 2: it's just the continuation of really tough economic times that 23 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 2: there hasn't been a lot of let up for voters 24 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 2: since this government came into power two years ago. 25 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 1: Does this if you believe that, then do you think 26 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: it turns around when the economy picks up. 27 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 2: I mean, you would have to expect that there would 28 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 2: be some kind of bump, you know, when touching would 29 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 2: we're going to say when the economy picks up. You know, Look, 30 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 2: there is a problem in the sense that I guess 31 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 2: the National Party leadership, which is the part of the 32 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 2: government that's most identified with the economy for its reasons, 33 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 2: the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister have been sort 34 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 2: of almost doing the opposite of the chicken little thing, saying, 35 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 2: you know, the economy is recovering, the economies are recovering. 36 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 2: People have not tended to see it happening, and so 37 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 2: that kind of erodes credibility and leadership and reputations for 38 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 2: economic management and those sorts of things that you see 39 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 2: at other surveys and polls and so, Look, I think 40 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 2: it does have, you know, a long term wearing effect 41 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 2: probably as well. But I think that once the economy 42 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 2: starts going, things would have to start looking up for 43 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 2: the government. 44 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: Do you think Luxon's in trouble on these numbers? 45 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 2: Look, as a prime minister, you wouldn't want to see 46 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 2: many polls where your party was in the twenties, you know, 47 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 2: even just barely dipping under. Now, you know that is 48 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 2: a sort of psychological threshold. 49 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 1: Well, because also been I mean Simon Bridges, not a 50 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 1: prime minister, but the leader. Simon Bridges was rolled on 51 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:24,519 Speaker 1: twenty nine. 52 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 2: Simon Bridges I think was rolled on thirty nine twenty. 53 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 1: Nine on the One News Colma Brunton Pole. 54 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 2: Oh was it okay? Yeah, I mean we used to 55 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 2: be sort of you know, thinking that anything in the 56 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 2: you know, in the middle low thirties was a disaster 57 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 2: for a National Party leader. Look, the thing is that 58 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 2: at this point, although the prend is certainly going against 59 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 2: the government and the National Party in particular, when you 60 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 2: look at the raw numbers, when you look at the 61 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 2: likely election results, it's still very much a toss up. 62 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 2: You would say, this upside coming when if the economic 63 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 2: recovery really kicks in, and so there is a lot 64 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 2: of risk if you were going to change a leader, 65 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 2: you know, if you were starting from scratch, if there 66 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 2: was a terrible accident that wiped out the entire caucus 67 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 2: or something like that, you know, would Christopher Luxen be 68 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 2: the person that you would choose. Probably not at this point. 69 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 2: On the other hand, there's a lot of risk attendant. 70 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 2: You know, you might get just Cinder Dun, you might 71 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 2: get Todd Muller. It is hard to tell how people 72 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 2: will perform in those roles or how the public will 73 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 2: perceive sort of you know, the perception of instability. And 74 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 2: so right now you see and it's not just National 75 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 2: Labor as well. It's hardly performing at historic or heroic eyes. 76 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 2: They're in the low low thirties, and so it's almost 77 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 2: a bit of a race to the bottom. But again 78 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 2: same issue, probably a fifty to fifty chance if an 79 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 2: election was held yet tomorrow, that they would in that 80 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 2: form of government. And so it's it's almost what you know, 81 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 2: if you're a physicist, you could call a very very 82 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 2: non dynamic equilibrium where the risks could be you are 83 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 2: perceived to probably outweigh the upside of any kind of 84 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 2: big change or gamble. 85 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: Ben thank you, has always appreciate it. Ben Thomas, former 86 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 1: National Party staff. But by the way, here is Chris Luxen. 87 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: It's been, no doubt about it. At a tough time, 88 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: New Zealanders voted me and our government to fix the 89 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: economy and. 90 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 2: Get it growing. Work incredibly hard to do it. 91 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 1: I don't deny it's been difficult and it's still tough, Heather. 92 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: Remember John Keith. This is just on the Reserve Bank. 93 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: Remember John Key got pilloried because he said the Reserve 94 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 1: Bank should drop the rate by one percent. Yeah, we 95 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: all looked at that and went, oh that's bold. Well 96 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: I think actually since then they have dropped the rate 97 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: by as you said, one percent. 98 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 99 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:50,839 Speaker 2: news Talks. 100 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 1: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast 101 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.