WEBVTT - Labour's David Parker on the state of foreign affairs 0:00:06.160 --> 0:00:08.240 Hello, and welcome to on the Tiles. I'm your host 0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:12.079 Thomas Coglin. This week, We've got an interesting episode a 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:15.840 little while ago. Last week in fact, Diplosphere, who run 0:00:15.880 --> 0:00:17.880 a lot of foreign policy events in Wellington. You can 0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:21.279 sign up on their website and and get notifications for 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:26.120 their events, they invited me to host David Parker speech late. 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:29.120 David Parkers obviously the foreign feer spokesperson for the Labor Party. 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:33.680 In the Foreign and Feast portfolio, you techinically do a 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.920 few big speeches every year which set out your views 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:39.680 on foreign policy where you position yourself. It's a much 0:00:39.720 --> 0:00:43.640 more speech heavy portfolio than other portfolios. You invite members 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:46.760 of the Diplomatic Corps and and and they kind of 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:52.920 analyze your speech for for for hints at where you're 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:56.560 positioning yourself in the foreign policy world. So this was 0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:00.680 was one of David Parker's big foreign policy speeches. It 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:05.120 sets out a lot of his David Parker thought on 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:10.840 tax on inequality, on social media, interestingly, and it packages 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:13.280 that into a sort of foreign policy framework, which I 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:17.039 think is very interesting because obviously inequality and social media 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:20.840 don't necessarily fit within the Foreign appears portfolio. But David 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:24.200 Park clearly thinks that they do. So after the speech 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:28.480 you will hear me giving an interviewing David doing a 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:31.320 quick Q and A, and then we take some questions 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:35.919 from the audience. Thanks to Diplosphere for hosting the event, 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:39.400 and thanks to David for a really interesting speech and 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:43.200 a great Q and A. I thought next week we'll 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:45.679 be back with a more conventional episode, but we thought 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:48.200 we'd put this on the feed this week for your enjoyment. 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:49.440 Thanks for listening. 0:01:54.600 --> 0:01:58.360 Welcome to members of the Diplomatic Corps, fellow members of Parliament, 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:03.600 the for the State, foreign Affairs experts, experts, trade tragics, 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:07.920 ladies and gentlemen. Special thanks to diplas Fair for helping 0:02:08.000 --> 0:02:14.000 organize this event. Jenegoto gatoa Mexican poet Omeilo Aichis, wrote, 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:17.840 there are centuries in which nothing happens, and years in 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:23.680 which centuries pass. Feels like that now, large swaths of 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:27.880 the eighty year old world Sorry, large swaths of the 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:31.400 eighty year old rules based world order developed after World 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:35.480 War II are in tatus. The dramatic withdrawal of the 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:38.720 United States of America from the Paris Agreement, the World 0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:42.960 Health Organization the wholting of the most usaid programs are 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:47.079 to say the least significant, the ineffective installed OECD work 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:51.240 on the minimum taxation of multinational companies. The whirlwind of 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.360 tariffs and counter tariffs which change almost daily. The war 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:59.960 of words between neighbors in North America is unprecedented. Speed 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:03.240 of the recent withdrawal of US support for institutions the 0:03:03.320 --> 0:03:08.560 US was pivotal in creating has shocked many. Europe already 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:12.520 reeling from war in Ukraine and wider instability, is now 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:16.639 deeply unsettled by recent statements and positions from the new 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:23.960 US administration. The withdrawal of the US security Guarantee changed 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:28.760 not just Europe, but geopolitics everywhere, including Asia and the Pacific. 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:34.000 Tectonic shifts are rocking the world, which is markedly different 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:38.480 from a decade ago. Multi letteral institutions have diminished an 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:41.920 authority and effect. The slide of the United Nations and 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:45.320 other important institutions like the World Trade Organization is obvious. 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:49.880 The overuse of the UN's Security Council VETO and inconsistent 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:56.640 application of international law has undermined the United Nations. Ineffectiveness 0:03:56.640 --> 0:04:02.240 feeds a cynicism and embolds disregard for international laws, treaties 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:07.480 and institutions. The UN Secretary General was declared persona non 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:12.760 grata in Israel. Many countries we identify with, like Canadian 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:16.960 and European democracies, which relied on security alliances with one 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:22.320 great power, are obviously rethinking their strategy. In stark contrast, 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:25.720 the New Zealand government has spent the last eighteen months 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:30.560 seeking closer alignment to the US, increasingly positioning New Zealand 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:34.799 as being an opposition to China. We did not consider 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:37.920 this a wise approach, but in any case, the shifting 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:42.520 global landscape has rendered it unsound. The world is in 0:04:42.560 --> 0:04:46.200 a transition to a multi polar world, with heightened rivalry 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:49.000 between the great powers. We could be in for a 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:52.359 rough ride. What would a labor government do if we 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:55.560 held the reins? How should New Zealand navigate the new 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:59.000 world order? When should we speak out? What should when 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.880 should we stay side so as not to provoke a response. 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:04.880 I'll set out my thoughts on New Zealand's foreign affairs 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:09.719 and defense and trade responses. How New Zealand would steer. 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:14.599 New Zealand's independent foreign policy both transationally and I think 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:19.359 importantly holistically. You will have seen that we share common 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:21.599 views with the government on the likes of the Cook Islands, 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:24.800 the militarization of the Pacific, and on Ukraine, but we 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:29.120 differ strongly on Orcas and Gaza. This should not surprise 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:32.560 given Labour's record, which we're proud to stand by. The 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:35.479 Labour led government stayed out of the illegal invasion of 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:39.840 Iraq after Ewan inspector hahns Blix found no evidence of 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:43.680 weapons of mass destruction. National said New Zealand should have 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:46.360 joined that war, which made the Middle East less secure 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:50.640 and undermine the rules based order. An earlier Labor government 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:55.640 established New Zealand's nuclear free status, which National opposed. Labour 0:05:55.640 --> 0:06:00.720 sent peacekeeping reconstruction forces to Teamo Leste in Afghanistan. We 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:04.000 provided money for arms to Ukraine via the NATO Fund, 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:08.960 humanitarian aid, air transport in Europe, and New Zealand personnel 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:13.200 to help train Ukrainian soldiers in the UK. These are 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:16.800 all examples of the New Zealand Labor Party and Government 0:06:16.960 --> 0:06:21.320 applying our independent foreign policy making decisions according to our 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:26.320 assessment of New Zealand's long term national interests. New Zealand 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:30.120 is not non aligned and works closely with local minded 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:33.840 countries which share our values. Australia is by far our 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:39.599 most important relationship. We are internationalists, not isolationists, and a 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:45.840 reliable supporter of international institutions. We understand communication between nations 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:50.600 on sensitive issues benefits from diplomacy, whether via the United 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:56.039 Nations or other multilateral for or bilaterally. We must be 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:59.360 able to talk our differences. Sorry, we must be able 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.160 to talk about it, differences between our country and others. 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:06.400 Hegemony is taken too far if we cannot not. All 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:10.840 statements can be in public, but some should be Sometimes, 0:07:10.840 --> 0:07:13.200 as now, there is a desire not to offend for 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:18.080 fear of retaliation at times of sensitivity. The wisdom of 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:20.960 former prime ministers on both sides of the Tasman can 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:24.000 be helpful. They can say what needs to be said. 0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:28.640 Paul Keating is well known for his pithy comments. He 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:32.320 recently described the fairer attributes of Australian society compare with 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:36.560 US societal settings. He listed cradle to the grave healthcare 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:42.240 for everyone, a sustainable retirement savings and superannuation system, an 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:46.240 Australian economy which delivers substantial income increases for working people, 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:51.600 high rates of Australian participation in education and effective gun control. 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:56.400 Keating's purpose was to emphasize that we shouldn't be subservient 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:01.800 nor sed moral authority to others, including the US, when 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:06.920 choosing our approach to the world. Malcolm Turnbull has spoken 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:10.040 out against US tariffs, noting their random use against Australia 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:13.920 is not justified by a trade and balance. John Key 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:17.320 has quietly but importantly emphasized that we should be careful 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:22.000 not to ruin our relationship with China. Helen Clark described 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:25.160 the pitfalls of aucust Pillar two and has been critical 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:29.400 of loose language, resurrecting the defunct Ansis Pact, or using 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:32.760 the Five Eyes Intelligent Network as a foreign affairs construct. 0:08:33.640 --> 0:08:37.760 She put it succinctly and well. New Zealand needs a 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:42.520 clear eyed vision for courteous relationships with the US and China, 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:47.680 close dialogue with the Pacific Rim, Pacific Island and European friends. 0:08:49.800 --> 0:08:52.839 Just because great power politics has shifted does not mean 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:57.280 aye Tero should drop our long standing commitment to human rights, 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:03.800 open trade, multi letteral institutions and the rights of small states. Obviously, 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:07.240 we understand diplomacy is required, but that should not silence 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:10.680 our ability to speak up and advocate what we believe in. 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:14.840 We raise concerns about freedom and expression and the treatment 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:18.920 of minorities in China, and about foreign interference. Some of 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:21.959 this is behind closed doors, but some are very public. 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:26.199 When the Chinese government, via its New Zealand embassy, criticized 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:30.240 New Zealand media for reports alleging foreign interference in labour, 0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:33.640 we quickly and publicly stood up for the rights of 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:38.560 the New Zealand media and criticized the Chinese intervention. The 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:40.760 New Zealand Labour parties view is that if we don't 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:43.480 stand up for what we believe in, we undermine our 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:46.839 ability to do so in future. We also undermine our 0:09:46.880 --> 0:09:50.480 reputation for fairness and foreign affairs, built up over decades, 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:55.160 which in turn undermines our influence. The same principles apply 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:58.920 to our relationship with the US. We have acknowledged that 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:02.640 the current govern it's desire not to unnecessarily provoke a 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:05.960 response from the US when things are so volatile, but 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:09.920 the government's seeming unwillingness to criticize anything pertaining to the 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:13.360 US concerns US. Even when the US went so far 0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:19.360 as to sanction others for participation in international institutions we support. 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:22.800 For example, New Zealand is a member of the International 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:26.040 Criminal Court the US is not. That is their right, 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:29.559 but for the US to sanction those assisting the ICC 0:10:29.800 --> 0:10:33.600 is wrong. Yet the current government chose not to stand 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:40.040 with sixty nine other countries, including Switzerland, France, Canada, UK, Germany, Sweden, 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:44.040 countries we share values with. This was an unfortunate break 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:47.320 with New Zealand's proud tradition and independently standing for what 0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:51.760 we believe in. If we want countries to support the 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:55.840 international rule of law, we should apply it consistently. Many 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:59.160 countries think the West is inconsistent in its application of 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:03.480 international law. In the Middle East, the sympathy most New 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:06.760 Zealand has felt for Israel and those who settled there 0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:11.480 following the Holocaust has severely eroded. We condemned the killings 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:15.760 and hostage taking by Hamas on seventeen October twenty twenty three, 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:20.200 but seventy years after the nineteen sixty seven war, the 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:24.920 blatant lack of rights of Palestinian people, the endless death 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:28.560 and carnage in Gaza, and the lack of progress towards 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:32.400 a two state solution or a single state alternative is intolerable. 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:35.440 That's why we have said New Zealand should be assisting 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:39.120 the International Court of Justice when considering whether the State 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:42.160 of Israel is acting illegally, as we did in respect 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:45.920 of Rwanda and Ukraine, and be clear that individuals and 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:49.600 breach of international law should face consequences in the International 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:54.640 Criminal Court and via in New Zealand sanctions regime. We 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.439 have limited power and we can't always get our way. 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:00.800 We try to use our values and reap mutation to 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:05.720 influence better outcomes. We get the real politic of superpower. 0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:10.000 We are long term observers of superpower behavior. We are 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:13.480 not surprised China has become more assertive as it has 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:17.520 become a superpower. The UK used to be so with 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:21.040 France and Spain and Esli back in the day. The 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:23.880 USA has long used its power in Central America and 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:28.240 beyond to influence outcomes, and is currently pressuring Panama to 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:33.720 limit Chinese influence. Russia's mister Putin has a history of 0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:38.720 invading and destabilizing other countries. He's unlikely to stop, in 0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:43.200 part because his internal political position, including his life and 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:48.120 retention of his billions may rely on continued international aggression. 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.800 This is why we support consideration by the New Zealand 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:58.000 government of support for multinational peacekeeping efforts in Ukraine AUCUST 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:02.400 Pillar two. The New Zealand Labor Party does not support 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:07.280 joining AUCUST Pillar two, which the prior US administration described 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:11.000 as a China containment strategy. There was a change of 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:13.640 language from the New Zealand government after the twenty twenty 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:17.360 three election. New Zealand was described as a force multiplier 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:23.280 for the US. Long redundant US language was resurrected. The 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.240 government said there were strong reasons in favor of Pillar two. 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:29.760 It appeared to us in Labour that the public were 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:33.360 being softened up to join. We engage the public in 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:38.280 a debate. This include well attended public events. Voices four 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.680 and AUCUST Pillar two were active. The media delved into 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:47.040 the issue. Neither interoperability nor access to technology rely upon ORCUS, 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:51.080 two of the main arguments put in its favor. Cooperation 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:55.000 with other countries in Asia like Japan, Indonesia, Singapore or 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:58.480 South Korea does not rely upon ORCUS and could be 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:01.640 hindered if these countries do not like the anti China 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:05.640 ORCUST positioning. We concluded that Aucust Pilar two is not 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:09.560 in New Zealand's interests. Our decision was not influenced by 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:12.880 the election outcome or the new administration in the US, 0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:17.920 although for some this will be relevant. It's pleasing that senior, 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:23.120 former National and act politicians have voiced their opposition to Interestingly, 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:26.280 the rhetoric from the government has toned down on orcus 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:30.840 that said language in India last week, instead of emphasizing 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:34.920 the need to navigate a multi polar world, clumsily positioned 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:38.760 in New Zealand is making binary choices between India and China. 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:44.040 Being unsurprised that arising China is more assertive in its 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:47.240 nearby region does not mean we are comfortable with all 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:51.040 steps in the Pacific. Being situated at the bottom of 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:56.640 the Pacific Ocean, distant from neighbours has trade in other disadvantages, 0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:00.520 but that physical isolation and low levels of militarization in 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:05.520 the vast Pacific are our greatest defensive attributes. Changes to 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:09.600 that status quo concern us. We are perturbed by the 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:14.360 recent agreements between the Cook Islands and China, labeled as 0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:18.640 a comprehensive strategic partnership. The agreement commits the Cook Islands 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:23.080 to supporting China in multilateral forums, to support candidates during 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:26.760 elections of various boards and committees. We agree with the 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:30.400 current New Zealand government the process which preceded these commitments 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:35.400 and their substance breach arrangements with the Cook Islands operate, 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:38.400 which referred to in the Joint Centennial Declaration of two 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:41.400 thousand and one. The Cook Islands are part of the 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:45.520 realm of New Zealand. Cook Islanders carry New Zealand passports. 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:50.480 The advantages this carries are the primary reason Cook Island's 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:54.440 per capita GDP is a remarkable four times that of 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:59.440 Fiji and fine times that of Togga and Samoa. Advantages 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:02.240 include the ability to work in New Zealand and through 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:06.360 New Zealand Australia, access to New Zealand health care and education, 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:12.440 and superannuation portability Consultation. Obligations are not some perfunctory commitment 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.680 of little importance. They are to ensure the Cook Island's 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:21.520 government neither deliberately nor unwittingly takes foreign affairs steps deleterious 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:24.200 to the Cook Islands or to New Zealand and to 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:28.000 our relationship. It is of course open to Cook Islanders 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:30.040 to change their relationship with New Zealand and give up 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:33.480 their New Zealand passports. I doubt this will occur, as 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:38.640 Cook Islanders know their standard of living would slump. Security 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.760 issues for the Cook Islands could deteriorate over time too, 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:45.560 in terms of seabed mining. It is within the sovereign 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:48.400 power of the Cook Islands to pursue this if their 0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:52.240 government desires. New Zealand's experience with hundreds of millions of 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:55.520 dollars of clean up costs left behind by overseas oil 0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:59.640 companies makes us very weary. Nevertheless, if the Cook Islands 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.440 so well, New Zealand should assist them to manage the 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:08.639 opportunities and risks, including with international participants. The prosperity and 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.840 peacefulness of the Pacific Islands is of fundamental importance to 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.960 New Zealand. The withdrawal of USA does not help New 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:19.800 Zealand with partners like Australia must step up. We need 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:23.359 to do more to help Pacific countries with affordable banking services, 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:31.040 digital telecommunications, renewable electricity, sustainable resource utilization, especially them helping 0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:35.280 them maximize value from their eased fisheries and climate adaptation, 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:41.160 better educational health and civil society outcomes are good for us. 0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:45.560 All labor mobility can also help, although care is needed 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:49.920 given sensitivities for some about depopulation. New Zealand can help 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:55.040 Pacific populations displaced by sea level rise. Reciprocity is the 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:59.879 key to prosperity and the shared desire to avoid militarizer 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:05.240 of the Pacific. What should we do next? Labour would 0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:08.320 like to discuss a Pacific peace zone with other Pacific 0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:13.800 island countries and surrounding superpowers. Phil Tweford will detail how 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:18.200 this measures with our historic commitments to denuclearization and peace 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:22.080 on another day. We are continuing to work on our 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:25.240 labor on our Pacific priorities within LABOUR, but one thing 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:29.280 is already clear. The decline in New Zealand government spending 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:33.840 on soft and hard power must be reversed. The split 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:37.840 between hard power expenditure on military personnel and hardware and 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:41.960 soft power spending and development assistance and diplomacy will need 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:44.960 to be worked through, but in our view increases to 0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:48.440 both are needed. A good principle to start with would 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:52.160 be that every extra dollar spent on the military will 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:55.840 be matched with an equivalent lift in our development aid 0:18:55.960 --> 0:19:01.400 to the Pacific. Today's not the day to defense procurement plan, 0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:07.000 but some high level statements are appropriate. I make three points. One, 0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:09.560 I should say one to wake people up, it's been 0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:13.920 a bit long one and coalition with others. Labour recently 0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:17.879 replaced the rions with pights and replace the Hercules and 0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:21.040 earlier Labor Government bought the current frigates which are now 0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:25.720 ending our near ending of near end of life. While 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:28.720 will never be a substantial military power, we need naval 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:31.280 vessels to respond to disasters in the Pacific and it 0:19:31.320 --> 0:19:34.199 is reasonable for our partners to expect they will have 0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:38.760 military capabilities. Right Honorable Chris Hipkins has acknowledged this requires 0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:43.960 cooperation across governments and election cycles. Two. Our most effective 0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:47.639 fighting force is our sas they should be well paid 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:51.199 and well equipped. They like to deploy their and to 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:55.520 polish their renowned skills. Consideration should be given to their 0:19:55.560 --> 0:20:00.520 deployment in Ukraine and supportive peace. Three. The war in 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:05.840 Ukraine has proven quantities of small drones are important. Ukrainian 0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:10.679 drones have effectively controlled the Black Sea against an invading 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:15.520 nuclear power. They are affordable. We are home to rocket 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:20.959 Lab Hamilton Jet and very sophisticated drone companies delivering leading 0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:26.080 edge services to our world leading agricultural sector. Australia has 0:20:26.160 --> 0:20:29.440 drone capabilities and is ahead of US in some areas 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:33.160 to use Sam Rogobin's analogy, and has booked the Echidneys strategy. 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.719 In defense, we should be a prickly adversary. New Zealand 0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:40.240 should prioritize working with Australia on defensive marine and air 0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:44.159 drones and commit significant resources to the task. Our defense 0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:48.080 spokesperson Penn Hennada is engaged in these issues. On our 0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:52.040 turn to trade, A lack of cooperation and compromises block 0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:55.600 progress at the WOD over many years. This is not 0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:59.040 a dig at the US. Many US complaints about trade 0:20:59.040 --> 0:21:02.760 and balance has caused by existing tariff's, non trade barriers, states, 0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:07.960 subsidized over capacity, and dumping are valid. That said, other 0:21:08.040 --> 0:21:13.760 distortions and unfairness caused by tax arbitrage substantially benefit the US, 0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:18.040 especially in services like e commerce. So does the US 0:21:18.119 --> 0:21:21.440 dollar reserve currency status, which in effect outsources much of 0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:25.800 the cost of US government deficits and debts. Clearly, these 0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:29.920 are complex issues. As Trade minister during the last Trump administration. 0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:33.199 I had frequent dealings with then U S Trade representative 0:21:33.280 --> 0:21:34.080 Robert Letheiser. 0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:34.640 I liked them. 0:21:35.400 --> 0:21:41.040 He criticized private equity purchases of US manufacturing, outsourcing manufacturing 0:21:41.080 --> 0:21:44.240 to labour cost countries to shave off the last few 0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:48.439 percent of labor costs the owner's banked increases in capital 0:21:48.520 --> 0:21:52.600 values at the cost of US workers. He wrote about 0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:55.520 this in his book. He understood that the standards of 0:21:55.600 --> 0:21:59.280 living of working New Zealand working middle class citizens were 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:02.800 essential to depending both the long term health of the 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:07.919 US economy and democracy. Without a strong middle class, working, producing, saving, 0:22:08.040 --> 0:22:13.000 and consuming, the economy and society weakens. There are ironies 0:22:13.920 --> 0:22:16.600 the current system has worked for the US in terms 0:22:16.600 --> 0:22:19.600 of its GDP per capita, which is amongst the highest 0:22:19.680 --> 0:22:23.040 in the world. The fact is referred to by Paul Keating, 0:22:23.560 --> 0:22:27.080 together with the parallel concentration of wealth at the very top, 0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:31.240 are not primarily caused by other countries, but rather by 0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:37.679 the USA's internal settings. Unfairness in trade settings is not 0:22:37.800 --> 0:22:42.240 new for New Zealand. New Zealand and Australia both play 0:22:42.359 --> 0:22:45.280 much fairer in global trade than most other countries, but 0:22:45.320 --> 0:22:48.679 are still caught up in the Maelstrom. Sitting as we 0:22:48.760 --> 0:22:51.240 do at the bottom of the Pacific. New Zealand responded 0:22:51.280 --> 0:22:55.360 to protectionist measures in Europe and the Americas by building 0:22:55.440 --> 0:22:59.520 trade and foreign affairs relationships in Asia. Some of those 0:22:59.560 --> 0:23:03.399 strategies have been phenomenally successful for a little country the 0:23:03.520 --> 0:23:09.960 China FTA Ansfitter CPTPP, which includes Japan, Canada, Mexico and Chillery. 0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:13.159 Then we circled back to the UK and Europe. The 0:23:13.200 --> 0:23:15.919 current government has closed the golf deal in pursuing India. 0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:21.400 Labour's record in trade is second to none, So how 0:23:21.440 --> 0:23:25.240 do we protect our trade interests? Now? We're as well 0:23:25.280 --> 0:23:30.080 placed as any distant small country can be. Our diversity 0:23:30.080 --> 0:23:33.080 of sales channels will help us to minimize the first 0:23:33.160 --> 0:23:36.639 round effects of the trade war. Risks to compliance with 0:23:36.680 --> 0:23:39.359 trade agreements, and the second round effects in terms of 0:23:39.760 --> 0:23:44.000 the risks of an international economic slowdown are impossible to 0:23:44.040 --> 0:23:48.600 model accurately. I certainly do not recommend tit for tat tariffs. 0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:54.200 Where might a new order emerge? I'll mention one idea. 0:23:54.320 --> 0:23:57.560 Damon O'Connor and I have discussed it's at least possible 0:23:57.600 --> 0:24:00.040 that some of the barriers to trade between Europe and 0:24:00.160 --> 0:24:03.520 the US will soon be reduced for both security and 0:24:03.600 --> 0:24:08.520 economic reasons. I hope they are. What happens, then maybe 0:24:08.520 --> 0:24:13.119 CPTPP could then be a sensible choice for Europe. The 0:24:13.240 --> 0:24:17.920 UK is already in it. If this happens, CPTPP, which 0:24:17.920 --> 0:24:22.159 has already overtaken the stagnant WTO, could become the de 0:24:22.240 --> 0:24:27.080 facto international standard for trade. This possibility should be pursued 0:24:27.119 --> 0:24:31.480 by our excellent trade officials. I want to end by 0:24:31.480 --> 0:24:36.160 lifting our thoughts to the underlying drivers of polarization afflicting 0:24:36.200 --> 0:24:41.399 the world. Polarization has increased between and within countries. There 0:24:41.400 --> 0:24:46.359 are many causes. Some are geopolitical, some economic, and some technological, 0:24:46.880 --> 0:24:51.080 Like the role social media plays and carrying lies misinformation, 0:24:51.720 --> 0:24:56.879 violence and death threats without consequence for those lying or 0:24:56.960 --> 0:25:01.800 those profiting from them. People feel less secure. Whatever the cause, 0:25:01.960 --> 0:25:07.119 this has political, economic, social, and security implications. Many foreign 0:25:07.160 --> 0:25:11.879 affairs responses are transactional, but the big shifts post World 0:25:11.880 --> 0:25:15.520 War II were holistic. There was a broad acceptance that 0:25:15.600 --> 0:25:20.439 the extremes of fascism, revolution and wars had been caused 0:25:20.440 --> 0:25:26.080 by depressions and inequality, in turn partly caused by unaffordable reparations. 0:25:27.480 --> 0:25:31.359 The New World Order after World War II was intended 0:25:31.359 --> 0:25:36.359 to enable all countries to succeed by encouraging international trade, 0:25:36.800 --> 0:25:42.400 access to resources, better health, and international cooperation. The decades 0:25:42.440 --> 0:25:45.720 that followed saw enormous progress in most parts of the world, 0:25:46.240 --> 0:25:50.560 with complementary progressive measures within countries assisting to lift outcomes 0:25:50.760 --> 0:25:55.320 for billions of people. Now the underlying consensus has frayed 0:25:55.359 --> 0:25:59.200 to the point of dysfunction. I believe the current turmoil 0:25:59.400 --> 0:26:02.480 will need a holistic response, and for that to be 0:26:02.560 --> 0:26:07.400 agreed a substantial subset of the international community. We'll need 0:26:07.440 --> 0:26:11.399 to find common ground about the main underlying causes of 0:26:11.480 --> 0:26:16.480 current worrisome trends. I've reached the stage of career that 0:26:16.560 --> 0:26:19.760 I know what I believe to be important, and for me, 0:26:19.880 --> 0:26:24.760 there are two main themes. First I've already touched on 0:26:25.359 --> 0:26:30.600 is gross wealth inequality, especially when this becomes intergenerational and 0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:35.760 sections of the population stagnate. This drives instability. I won't 0:26:35.800 --> 0:26:38.200 say more about that in this speech, but history shows 0:26:38.280 --> 0:26:42.840 time and again that gross inequality ends in tears. The 0:26:42.880 --> 0:26:46.639 second is the breakdown of trust, which happens when lies 0:26:46.720 --> 0:26:52.080 and misinformation prevail over facts. A cornerstone of the emergence 0:26:52.160 --> 0:26:55.840 of the nation state and the spread of liberal democracy 0:26:56.040 --> 0:27:00.960 was the Enlightenment. There are rational facts, there are truths 0:27:01.760 --> 0:27:08.480 and untruths. The scourge of irresponsible social media, megular maniacal 0:27:08.680 --> 0:27:14.520 tax avoiding tech barons and irresponsible Internet service providers is 0:27:14.600 --> 0:27:18.080 on my list of the importance. I have a view 0:27:18.200 --> 0:27:20.680 that we in the West have made a fundamental error 0:27:21.160 --> 0:27:24.400 in providing what is in effect and exclusion of liability 0:27:24.400 --> 0:27:27.639 for third party content. We have wrongly taken upon the 0:27:27.680 --> 0:27:32.200 shoulders of government the burden of regulating against what is harmful. 0:27:32.880 --> 0:27:35.920 I doubt this will ever work in practice. It also 0:27:36.000 --> 0:27:39.680 puts the burden on the harm citizen or government agencies 0:27:40.040 --> 0:27:44.560 to respond after harm is cause. The exclusion of liability 0:27:44.640 --> 0:27:47.760