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Speaker 1: Shane solely from Harbor Asset Management is with us this

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Speaker 1: evening go out of Shane. Let's take a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a look at the markets and are we at

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Speaker 1: maximum Trump government policy uncertainty for the capital markets now?

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Speaker 1: Have the capital markets reacted to recent US policy announcements?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think the quick quick statement is we're not sure.

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Speaker 2: We haven't seen anything that could come down the line.

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Speaker 2: But what we're seeing is President elect Trump as policy announced.

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Speaker 2: They're certainly causing some choppiness and capital markets, but the

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Speaker 2: trend has actually been more positive in the headlines. We

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Speaker 2: actually saw the US shear market, for example, up just

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Speaker 2: under six percent of November. And one of the things

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Speaker 2: that happened in the later in the month was mister

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Speaker 2: Trump picked a guy called Scott percent to be Treasury Secretary,

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Speaker 2: and he was taken as being a sort of a

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Speaker 2: seasoned choice that might could stabilize markets and be a

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Speaker 2: little more considered on terms of terrifs and text cuts.

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Speaker 2: He actually saw long term bond yards fall, shear marker

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Speaker 2: go up. But then of course mister Trump doubled down

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Speaker 2: with his discussion about putting Tarraf's additional terrorists in China,

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Speaker 2: which we had already thought about, but then slipping under

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and that

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Speaker 2: really got people excited. And obviously he's targeting migrants and

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Speaker 2: legal drugs came across the borders. That that Bush to

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Speaker 2: add tariffs on to Canada and Mexico, it has implications

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Speaker 2: for supply chains, even for companies like Fisher and piperarcare

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Speaker 2: that manufacture O of Mexico. So yeah, it's we're in

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Speaker 2: for a few more weeks of policy announcements that could

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Speaker 2: surprise investors. A good example is, you know, whether Robert

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Speaker 2: IF Kennedy Junior gets confirmed as the Department of Health

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Speaker 2: and Human Services, and that would cause a little bit

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Speaker 2: of uncertainty for investors. And I think probably that we've

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Speaker 2: got to keep watching our Trump media truths social media

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Speaker 2: platform to find out what mister Trump's going to be next.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, back home, Shane, are you seeing signs that the

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Speaker 1: New Zealand economy might just be reawakening from its slumber

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Speaker 1: a recent reserve bank rate cuts driving more consumer and

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Speaker 1: business confidence.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I think you know it's a good point

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Speaker 2: you raised, Jack, that we have sort of weathered one

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Speaker 2: of the Central Bank interest rate increased cycles globally, when

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Speaker 2: we look around the world, we really took a better medicine.

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Speaker 2: But more recently we've seen business and consumer confidence bounced

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Speaker 2: back in the last few weeks. That is certainly reserved

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Speaker 2: Bank cutting official rates that reduces the interest costs for borrowers,

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Speaker 2: but there might be a couple of other factors giving

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Speaker 2: us a bit of a boost as well. Diairy pretty

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Speaker 2: solid dairy season, an unusual combination of high volume production

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Speaker 2: and good firm pricing. And yes, the dairy farmers out

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Speaker 2: there will be telling me the cost of producing a

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Speaker 2: gone up, but it's still a benefit and that may

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Speaker 2: trickle down. We are seeing some signs of recovery in

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Speaker 2: China's economic activity. It's not huge yet, but even over

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Speaker 2: the weekend we saw these lead indicators. There's purchasing manager

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Speaker 2: and this is they were up above fifty, which suggests

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Speaker 2: the economies at least expanding again after some stimulus that's announced.

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Speaker 2: And then finally we've had a bit of a next

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Speaker 2: lot of data on construction activity in New Zealand. We

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Speaker 2: saw October building permits down five point two percent of

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Speaker 2: the month down to almost sixteen percent for the twelve

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Speaker 2: months of October to thirty two thousand starts here in

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Speaker 2: New Zealand of homes. But against that, we've also seen

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Speaker 2: a reserve bank he's Marge Landing starting to pick up,

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Speaker 2: which you saw a thirty percent increase in October in

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Speaker 2: the same month in twenty twenty three, with investors actually

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Speaker 2: shown a bit of spy. So it's mixed, but we

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Speaker 2: are seeing the some green shoots coming through and now

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Speaker 2: shipmaker here not as exciting as the US market was

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Speaker 2: actually up three point four percent over the month of November,

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Speaker 2: so the market looks forward.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So what announcements are you keeping an eye on

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Speaker 1: this week?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, it's going to be another week where we

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Speaker 2: watch what happens to the US data, particularly job opening

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Speaker 2: data out tomorrow and on Friday, business and called the

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Speaker 2: payroll data. And this is all about getting some medications

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Speaker 2: for what the US Vigul Reserve, which is the US

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Speaker 2: Central Bank might do with official rates on the eighteenth

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Speaker 2: of December, and the market sort of unwound expectations of

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Speaker 2: big cuts. It's only about twenty or point two of

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Speaker 2: a percent cut in priced in now, so that'll be interesting. Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: we've got secret you can make data out of Australia

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Speaker 2: and China, obviously two key trade partners for New Zealand.

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Speaker 2: We've also got some company yes, similarly the dairy producer

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Speaker 2: which is seen a little bit of financial pressure recently.

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Speaker 2: Then due to report to the annual Shield to meet

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday. We're also going to invest to day from Somerset,

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Speaker 2: the retirement village operated on Wednesday and again that might

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Speaker 2: get a bit of insight into their future. Friday we

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Speaker 2: wrap up with doesn't sound very exciting, but it's actually

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Speaker 2: quite important. Is the Australian S and p A six

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Speaker 2: two hundred index, which is the main benchmark Australian investors

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Speaker 2: used to decide what she is to invest in. And

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Speaker 2: there's some suggestion that Fletcher Building Spark could be removed

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Speaker 2: from that, which may actually see some more selling than

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Speaker 2: those two stocks from Australian investors. So yeah, busy week, Jack.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, very good. Hey, thanks Shane, appreciate it. Shane solid

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Speaker 1: there from Harbor Asset Management. For more from Heather Duplessy

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Speaker 1: Ellen Drive and Live to News Talks, it'd be from

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