1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: Headline was zero point two percent to the good and 2 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 1: we're officially out of recession, but it an't over, of course, 3 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: and that's the real story. With the current court, are 4 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,239 Speaker 1: widely expected to be back down again. So where does 5 00:00:09,280 --> 00:00:12,320 Speaker 1: all this lebar Beleaguet Economy Info Metric CEO Brad Olsenbacher. 6 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: This Brad, very good morning to you. Good morning, and 7 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: I think congratulations and order. I think last time we talked, 8 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: you saw growth growth, it was what do you see 9 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: for Q two? 10 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 2: Well, you're right, I mean, numbers at the moment don't 11 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 2: look all that good for Q two. And I think also, 12 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 2: I mean, yes, it was growth, but it was sort 13 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 2: of hiding the hurt that everyone's feeling out there. Per 14 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 2: capita growth was still down twenty three percent. That was 15 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 2: six consecutive quarters, one and a half years of activity, 16 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 2: where per person that's going down, so people are getting 17 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 2: smaller slice of the economic pie. I fuel then looking 18 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 2: at some of those industry results as well, I guess 19 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 2: the worry that we had it's looking for that Q 20 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 2: one data was that it was some of the important 21 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 2: pieces of the business economy that haven't been doing as well. 22 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 2: Construction is down, non food men, mafacturing is down, professional 23 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 2: services and similar are all down. That doesn't bode well 24 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 2: for general weeking like momentum, and you look at some 25 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 2: of the spending figures and similar coming out and it 26 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 2: does seem like again, really the kindly is not going 27 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 2: anywhere fast. I think the biggest thing is looking at 28 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 2: both the first figure that we got yesterday thinking about 29 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 2: the second quarter of the year that we're in. At 30 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 2: the moment, the Reserve Bank, it probably doesn't change their 31 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 2: view too much in either direction. It's not enough to 32 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 2: make them think they can cut earlier, but it shouldn't 33 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 2: be enough to make them push out any expectations any further. 34 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 1: Well, what they're saying is next year for a cut. 35 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: So if they're on track and they'll run there, this 36 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,759 Speaker 1: is going to plan line. So all the people who 37 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: think somehow we're getting there this year, they're wrong. 38 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 2: Well, at the moment, I'd find it very hard to 39 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 2: believe that there'd be enough evidence for the Reserve Bank 40 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 2: to go they think they can cutch this year. I 41 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: mean in a sense I think you can make a 42 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: convincing argument, you and me, and then lots of other 43 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 2: people will probably say that there would be enough station. 44 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 2: But the bank that they are worried. They've sort of said, look, 45 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 2: we haven't met our target. We're still worried about the 46 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 2: persistence of inflation. We're worried about how sticky some of 47 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 2: that core, particularly domestically based pressures are, And I think 48 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 2: that's the sort of thing where we looked at some 49 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 2: of the numbers yesterday and satsan Z said, look, we're 50 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 2: not one hundred percent sure we're splitting up the like 51 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,519 Speaker 2: tourism spending versus you know, residents spending all that well, 52 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 2: but overall spending in the economy, and this one is 53 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: actually easy to measure. Spending in the economy was uper 54 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 2: point eight percent in the first three months of the year. 55 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,959 Speaker 2: That says that there is some parts of society, not everyone, 56 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 2: but some parts that are going all right. They're probably 57 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: not talking about it all that much, all of the 58 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 2: hurt and pain. But if that's the case in the 59 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 2: Reserve Bank, that they are worried that they will not 60 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 2: hit their target, and they will be wanting to wait 61 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 2: and worry quite a while longer. 62 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: But that's their conundrum, isn't it. Because there are if 63 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 1: you don't have debt, bread and you've seen the travel 64 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,239 Speaker 1: things and stuff, and you're after Europe for summer in July, 65 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: then that those are the people are doing well and 66 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: there's no shortage of those are they not well? 67 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 2: And the thing is you've got about a third of 68 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 2: the population that renters that are being hit with you know, 69 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 2: high cost generally and also some of the fastest rental increases. 70 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 2: Are you going back to the nineties. You've got mortgage 71 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 2: holders of course, are being hit very very hard and 72 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 2: facing all the other general inflation, the last dirt the economy. 73 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 2: Don't got their houses freehot, they're not paying any more 74 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 2: good rates. The only thing that's really dictating what happens 75 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:26,679 Speaker 2: to them is if they're putting their money into a 76 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 2: term deposit and so they've got that sort of money, 77 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 2: then yeah, maybe sure they're doing a bit of that, 78 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 2: but like you say, they're also spending. And that sort 79 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 2: of area where there seems to be enough businesses that 80 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 2: are still able to put up prices. I mean, I 81 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 2: saw one again the other day, one of the talent 82 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 2: communications companies putting up their prices again at a time 83 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 2: when we're all being told to pull back. So it's 84 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 2: still happening out there, and it's happening enough that it's 85 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 2: causing that worry. 86 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: You're a good man, you have a good weekend. We'll 87 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:52,839 Speaker 1: catch up, so appreciate it very much. Brad Olson, who 88 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: is the Informetric's chief executive with us this morning, of course. 89 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 2: For more from News Talks d B, listen live on 90 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 2: air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever 91 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio.