1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,960 Speaker 1: New economic forecast to have a look at comes from 2 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Business New Zealand. They're calling a GDP number of just 3 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 1: under three percent by the end of twenty seven. They 4 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:10,720 Speaker 1: see momentum coming in manufacturing, construction, tourism. They talk of 5 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: asset sales, which is interesting. John Paska is the Business 6 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: New Zealand chief economist and is well, there's John, morning 7 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: to you. 8 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 2: Good morning. 9 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: Having had a good look at this report this morning. 10 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: Year in the retirement healthcare camp of people who say 11 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: this is all going to be unaffordable and we're going 12 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: to need to make some fairly serious decisions, do you 13 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: reckon we're up for it? 14 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:33,199 Speaker 2: Well, I think that it's the success the governments are 15 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 2: ready sort of kick this can down down the road. 16 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 2: But I think there's more and more public debate now 17 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 2: that not only from you know, Treasury, but even healthcare 18 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 2: organizations and age care that they realize that this is 19 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 2: going to have to be addressed, and sooner rather than 20 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 2: later would be desirable. 21 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,639 Speaker 1: And what about the government idea around debt. I mean, 22 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: I'm so glad people are starting to talk about debt. 23 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: I mean, the debt is just a problem. I mean, 24 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,279 Speaker 1: we're not even getting back to surplus until twenty eight 25 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: twenty nine, and even then it's touch and go. Do 26 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: you think people get that bit. 27 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 2: Well, I think it's been We went through obviously difficult 28 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: years under COVID, but I think there was almost like 29 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 2: an impression that, you know, we had low levels of 30 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 2: debt and it wasn't a problem of the sort of 31 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 2: government borrowing up the eyeballs and you consider it buying 32 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 2: the government to bail you out. And I you know, 33 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 2: once you start dealing with really really big numbers, people 34 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 2: know the price of the copper coffee, but when you 35 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 2: start talking about you know, fifty or one hundred billion dollars, 36 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 2: there's their eyes glaze over and they can't really get 37 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 2: in that space. So I think unless you actually sort 38 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 2: of try and simplify it and sort of say, look, 39 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 2: you know, your average household is basically in debt of 40 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 2: you know, a couple hundred thousand or whatever, then that 41 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 2: sort of gets a bit of reality into the process, 42 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:45,119 Speaker 2: as it were. 43 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: Are you for rasset sales or the regeneration of income 44 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 1: from assets? 45 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: Well, I think you have to look at everything and 46 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 2: it's in its own merits. It's not a case of 47 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: you know, just simply selling off the family silver. But 48 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 2: you've got to sort of really question, you know, why 49 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: do we have stay owned farms, you know, potentially state 50 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 2: owned electricity generation and so on. So and it's not 51 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 2: only that, but it's actually getting more efficient use of 52 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 2: resources and also potentially opening up areas of government monopolies 53 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 2: to competition. So you know, private sector generally has greater 54 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 2: incentives than the public sector and are not not prone 55 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 2: to political motivations. So generally the private sector does better 56 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 2: overall and over time in terms of managing assets. 57 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: Regrowth GDP is next year real, it's going to happen. 58 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no, no, it's I think if you're looking 59 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 2: at you know, there's a lot of indicators coming out, 60 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 2: both both official from stats but forward looking indicators that 61 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 2: show really across the board, things are hanging a lot 62 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 2: more positive positive. So you know, obviously it starts with 63 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 2: business confidence and consumer confidence. Business confidence is high. You know, 64 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 2: I've always taken some of these confidence surveys with a 65 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 2: grain of salt because people can you know, it depends 66 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 2: with the all blacks one or not, and that can 67 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 2: determine whether I feel positive. But it's actually the data 68 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 2: what's sexually happening at the individual enterprise level. That's the 69 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 2: important stuff and that's sexually improving. 70 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 1: Good to hear, John, Well done. John Pascu is the 71 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: Business New Zealand Chief Economist. 72 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 2: For more from the My Asking Breakfast, listen live to 73 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 2: news talks that'd be from six am weekdays, or follow 74 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.