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Speaker 1: Ten past five here they do for CELA. There are

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Speaker 1: warnings the US may strike Iran as soon as this weekend,

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Speaker 1: with one anonymous source telling international media there is now

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Speaker 1: a ninety percent chance of war in the coming weeks.

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Speaker 1: Ol Gillespie is a law professor at the University of

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Speaker 1: way Kathawa and an international law expert in with us

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Speaker 1: hi Alither does ninety percent sound real to you?

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Speaker 2: I think it's a bit high. It will depend on negotiations,

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Speaker 2: but it's certainly quite possible.

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Speaker 1: What would they have to give Trump in negotiations to

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Speaker 1: get out of this.

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Speaker 2: There's three things that they're looking at that The first

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Speaker 2: one is removing their nuclear ability, which I think you

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Speaker 2: can easily negotiate that. The second thing is removing their

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Speaker 2: ballistic missile ability, which I think it's possible but difficult.

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Speaker 2: The third one is maybe letting them have the right

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Speaker 2: to protest, which they will never allow, in.

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Speaker 1: Which case here there's a strike right.

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Speaker 2: It is quite possible that The problem is is that

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Speaker 2: if you go into the situation like this, everyone's thinking Venezuela,

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Speaker 2: like you cut the head off the snake, but here

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Speaker 2: it's a very big snake, and it's if you remove

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Speaker 2: the Aatol that you were likely to have a problem

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Speaker 2: with the Revolutionary Guard taking power. That could turn into

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Speaker 2: a civil war, and it could make the Arab Spring

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Speaker 2: look like a beginning party.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So if he does decide to do it, there

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Speaker 1: are a few problems because he's got a few things

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Speaker 1: on the calendar. Right We've got the Winter Olympics, and

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Speaker 1: generally you don't strike during winter. Olympics ends on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: but then you've got Ramadan starting on Wednesday. So that's

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Speaker 1: a very small window, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: So it's quite possible it could be sooner rather than later.

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Speaker 2: And he's also someone who's got to show strengths right

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Speaker 2: now because he's got a lot of other countries he's

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Speaker 2: trying to make do certain things. You can think Venezuela,

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Speaker 2: you can think Cuba. He's a man not to be

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Speaker 2: messed with, so he will want to have a projection

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Speaker 2: of power.

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Speaker 1: What do you think is a global impact if he

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Speaker 1: does go in there.

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Speaker 2: I think there's nothing an international law which says you

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Speaker 2: can force people to negotiate under threat or bomb them

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Speaker 2: if they don't agree with you. I think it's another

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Speaker 2: aspect of the lawless world that we're engaging, and the

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Speaker 2: problem isn't just what when America does in China and

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Speaker 2: Russia follow suit.

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Speaker 1: All right, thank you for that. I'll appreciate it. Al Gillespie,

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Speaker 1: Waikatol University law professor, so has been What is certainly

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Speaker 1: adding credibility to this ninety percent thing is just the

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Speaker 1: number of aircraft that are going into the Middle East

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Speaker 1: at the moment it's been tracked. On Monday, there are

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Speaker 1: at least six flights of the Strato tankers heading towards

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, then another eight recorded on Tuesday. On

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Speaker 1: Monday twenty USF thirty five combat aircraft took off from Suffolk.

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Speaker 1: On Tuesday twenty five, F sixteen jets flew to the US.

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Speaker 1: From the US to the Middle East, they landed in

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Speaker 1: southern Israel, also Jordan and Crete. For more from Heather

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Speaker 1: Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks. It'd be

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Speaker 1: from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.