1 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: Cureda and welcome to this episode of Shared Lunch, where 2 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: we briefly touch upon everyone's favorite subject, interest rates. As 3 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 1: you may have heard, the Reserve Bank has decided to 4 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: again hold the official cash rate at five and a 5 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:20,479 Speaker 1: half percent. But why does this matter? Well, this is 6 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: what sets the rates we all pay on our mortgages, 7 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:25,959 Speaker 1: loans and what we receive when our deposits. My name's 8 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: Laton Robertson, the co founder and co COO at Chazy's. 9 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: And to understand the impact of this, we're joined by 10 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: Inframetrics principal economist Brad Olsen. 11 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 2: Investing involves risk you might lose the money you start with. 12 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 2: We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. We also 13 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 2: recommend reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Everything 14 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 2: you're about to see and hear is current at the 15 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 2: time of recording. 16 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 1: Hey Brad, thanks so much for joining us. You're in Geneva, 17 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: but obviously news travels very fast. How you going on? 18 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 3: Well, thanks, you know, it's pretty hot over here, but 19 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 3: thank you everyone backing. New Zealand is pretty hot under 20 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 3: the cholera. As to what's happening with interest rates, so 21 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 3: a lot of interest a lot of intrigue still going 22 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 3: on about what the Reserve Bank thinks and importantly what 23 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 3: they'll do and when. 24 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, completely, So you've had a bit of a chance 25 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:14,759 Speaker 1: to read the statement and what time is it. 26 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 3: Over there by the way, at about six am? 27 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: Oh, good on you. Hey, Well, look, the consensus from 28 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 1: what we're reading so far seems well that was that 29 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: there's going to be no change and that's what's happens. 30 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 1: But specifically there was a lot of talk about with 31 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 1: regards to inflation in this one and when rates are 32 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 1: going to be about to be cut. So what's your 33 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 1: take from what they put out today? 34 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, actually quite a flip flop really from the 35 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 3: Reserve Bank in their view. Remember back in May they 36 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 3: were talking about how they considered increasing the official cash rate. 37 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 3: Now they're talking and saying that they're confident that inflation 38 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 3: will be back within the target band of one to 39 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 3: three percent by the end of this year. They're talking 40 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 3: about how interest rates have to remain restrictive, but that'll 41 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 3: be tempered over time depending on how inflation actually goes. 42 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 3: So really they've gone from sort of talking about a 43 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 3: hike three weeks six weeks ago to effectively opening the 44 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 3: door to an interest rate cut. Now it's not going 45 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 3: to come immediately, but it does start to bend your 46 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 3: air a little bit towards maybe November this year is 47 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 3: actually likely for the Reserve Bank. A little bit hard 48 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 3: to understand how they got there, but I think this 49 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 3: is probably the right flip flop. Because all of the 50 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 3: data we have been seeing recently is showing the economy 51 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 3: slow down, showing less inflationary pressure. It should open that door, 52 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 3: and I think the Reserve Bank has just put a 53 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 3: little bit of a crack in that door and opened 54 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 3: up the opportunity. 55 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is a flip. I think the assessment 56 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 1: last time was more hawkish than expected, this time more dubvish. 57 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: So for listeners, the hawks normally asking for a more 58 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: aggressive stance and wanting its straits to increase normally, and 59 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: then data's being the opposite. So looking for Laurence Trase, 60 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: which it's very much the read of how this one's 61 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 1: coming out. So you mentioned November, would you say that's 62 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: your pack at the moment as well? 63 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 3: Well? The question here really is that do we think 64 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank is going to stick to its message? 65 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 3: Because again it's completely one eighty in the last six weeks. 66 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 3: Who knows what they'll come out with in six weeks 67 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 3: time again. Gosh, they could be back up to a 68 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 3: fifty basis point i'd given how they sort of go 69 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:22,799 Speaker 3: between one or the other. Now, I don't think that's 70 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 3: actually seriously what's going to happen. But I guess I'm 71 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 3: a little bit worried that we seem to sort of 72 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 3: be jumping at every single shadow of every data point 73 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 3: that comes out. You look at the bank last time, 74 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 3: they were looking at inflation that had come in at 75 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 3: a headline level, better, at a non tradable level, worse 76 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 3: than i'd expected. You look though, at sort of a 77 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 3: week or so ago, you've got the latest quarterly survey 78 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 3: of business opinion from NZII looked a lot better in 79 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 3: terms of inflationary pressures pulling back and similar. I guess 80 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 3: I'd hate for inflation to come out next week in 81 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 3: the bank to go well, all of a sudden, it's worse, 82 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 3: and therefore we're back to our hawkish stant So I 83 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 3: just don't think they have enough confidence in the Reserve 84 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 3: Bank's ability to get out of the same bed every 85 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 3: morning at the moment to say what it is. Here's 86 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 3: I think the frustration infametrics we were at November twenty 87 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 3: twenty four being the first cut. If you go back 88 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 3: a couple of months after the last statement from the 89 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 3: Reserve Bank where they're like, oh, geez, we need to 90 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 3: hike it up, we actually pushed it out till February. Now, 91 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 3: I'd hate for us to also flip flop and go 92 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 3: straight back to November, but I guess what we're sort 93 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 3: of seeing is that we were pretty convinced that there's 94 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 3: enough information that will come through by November to cut. 95 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 3: We just didn't think the Reserve Bank would have that 96 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 3: much gumption because of how strong their talk was so 97 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,039 Speaker 3: between November and February. I think is a very live possibility. 98 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 3: I don't know if i'd put money either way on it, 99 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 3: because I don't know if the Reserve Bank is particularly 100 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 3: consistent on their view. But given everything we've seen so far, 101 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 3: given that weaker data coming through, it does seem to 102 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 3: be consistent that if you can get inflation below three 103 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 3: percent by the end of this year, that should open 104 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 3: the doors for the Reserve Bank to go Yep, we're 105 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 3: definitely on the right pathway now. Is the right time 106 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 3: to ease, because it's going to take at a time 107 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 3: for any of their decisions to actually fully hit the economy. 108 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: Yeah. Interesting, and there's a few changes still to flow 109 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: from here. 110 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:07,039 Speaker 3: You know. 111 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 1: One of the things that the statement today will do, 112 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: I'm sure is well, swap breaks will adjust over the 113 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: next few days, and swapbrates are where the mortgages are priced, 114 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: and I do expect we might see a bit of 115 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 1: home loan rate easy and off the back of this 116 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 1: that will have an impact. And then of course we'll 117 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: have the new changes from the government with tax relief 118 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: coming in over the next month. So I very much 119 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 1: agree there's a lot of movements still to happen. But 120 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: if we just bring it back to sentiment in New 121 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 1: Zealand at the moment, it feels like there's a bit 122 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: of pain now, you know, really in the households and 123 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:38,599 Speaker 1: businesses alike. And I think that's not so flip floppy. 124 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: I would say that's feeling reasonably embedded. So you know, 125 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: what do you think if we had enough pain? 126 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 3: I think that you're right. I mean that pain is 127 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 3: quite clearly hitting now. You see that in all of 128 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 3: the indicators. What is interesting is andcdotally going around the country, 129 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 3: I've been hearing from a lot of people that sort 130 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 3: of said, look, the first three months of twenty four 131 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 3: were hard, but not sort of you know that they 132 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 3: were manageably hard. From April on, it feels like things 133 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 3: have gotten a lot darker, and I think again, you're 134 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 3: starting to see that through in a number of different indicators, 135 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 3: which are effectively saying, look, I'm finding it tough as 136 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 3: a business to just get sales. Households are fighting it 137 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 3: tough to find the money to go out and spend, 138 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 3: and so all of that does imply and you see 139 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 3: that in the business surveys people saying look, it's tougher 140 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 3: at the moment to get that sort of economic activity. 141 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 3: I'm not wanting to put up prices quite as much, 142 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 3: people who are saying, look, I don't think that my 143 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 3: job security is all that good anymore. Therefore I'm probably 144 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 3: not asking for the pay rises like I might have 145 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 3: been before. All of that, I think you're right, is 146 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 3: consistent with that view that the hits come through, that 147 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 3: inflation should fall back, that the Reserve Bank's got enough evidence, 148 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 3: and I think probably the two things we're looking out 149 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 3: for in the short term, You've got inflation data out 150 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 3: next week. You've got labor market data out in a 151 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 3: couple of weeks time after that. If both of those 152 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 3: continue to show that softening, and we expect they will, 153 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 3: then I think that really does add that weight of 154 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 3: evidence behind the Reserve Bank being confident and then did confidently. 155 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. Interesting, The labor market has sort of been the savior, 156 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 1: hasn't it with regards to the economic or the positive 157 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: story out a lot of these lately. But that data 158 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 1: will be interesting because it feels like that is most 159 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: likely turning. One of the interesting things, just as a 160 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:22,559 Speaker 1: point is, we've just done the investor survey that Cheesy 161 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: does as well out index and investor sentment has turned. 162 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: Sentiment has turned back to a balanced view, which you know, 163 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: one of the things that may be is people expecting 164 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,559 Speaker 1: to see interest rates start to cut, and as interest 165 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 1: rates change or go down, and then people do look 166 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: down the asset classes like equity. Sort of interesting to 167 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: see how that plays out. Anyway. What's your key takeaway 168 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: from the from the MPUs to the monetary policy statement? 169 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 1: Was it an EP sectually? I don't think it was 170 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:49,679 Speaker 1: today was it? 171 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 3: But it's just just a monetary policy review. Yes, look, yeah, 172 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 3: the main message here, I think is that, look, rates 173 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 3: cats are sort of more live, more on the table 174 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 3: than before. It's going to be interesting to see how 175 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank squares this up in a couple of 176 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 3: weeks when they release their next actual monetary policy statement 177 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 3: in their forecast. You remember, you know again, six weeks 178 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 3: ago they were picking an increase and no real cut 179 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 3: until August September next year. If they're going to be 180 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 3: realistic on the talk that we've just had today, they'd 181 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 3: have to bring their pick forward like ten months. That 182 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 3: would be pretty substantial and would require some pretty serious explaining. 183 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 3: But I think you're right that sort of this is 184 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 3: a bit of a sentiment shift as well, and that 185 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 3: people are feeling quite challenged at the moment, but also 186 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 3: a feeling of some of those greenish shoots maybe emerging 187 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 3: next year. You know, people have been taking out shorter 188 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 3: and shorter home loans because they're expecting those interest rate cuts. 189 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 3: You noted that sort of shift and sentiment from the 190 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 3: Shears's index. You're seeing, you know, consumer confidence not good 191 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 3: at the moment, but expectations for next year look better. 192 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 3: It does seem to be that sort of still survived 193 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 3: till twenty five story, but maybe a slightly earlier pitch 194 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 3: for their interest rate relief. It's not going to be huge, 195 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 3: but it will make a difference when it comes, and 196 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank seems more open to it now than 197 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 3: certainly what they were six weeks ago. 198 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, nice, great brand. I've heard a bit of that 199 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: survived twenty five, Like I saw someone else right about 200 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: thrive to twenty five the other day, which I thought 201 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: was a great mantra for us to carry forward forward. 202 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: And certainly what I got out of my experience in 203 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: the US a few weeks ago was people taking more 204 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: of that view. But certainly a lot of complexity out 205 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 1: there in the market still in interest rates, adding to 206 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 1: that with regards to challenge. So I'm personally of the 207 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 1: view that i'd like to see them drop sooner rather later, 208 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: but completely understand the pressures and I wouldn't want to 209 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: be sitting in that room making the decision myself. So 210 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,199 Speaker 1: one last question for you, what do you think the 211 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: risks are of them having gone too far and it's 212 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 1: been harder to pull back into a growth cycle because 213 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: of holding it straights too long. 214 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 3: I think that sort of the longer we leave it, 215 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 3: and certainly almost every passing day it feels like they're 216 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,599 Speaker 3: at that risk grows greater and greater. They almost have 217 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 3: certainly overcooked it a touch. It's just do they bring 218 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 3: it back by moving by the end of this year 219 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 3: or do they sort of leave that just that extra 220 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 3: three months over summer, you know, sort of starts the 221 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 3: year off with a slower start. I think that might 222 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 3: well be a mistake. I'm just not sure if they're 223 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 3: sort of going to stick with that view that they hold, 224 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 3: if they were going to move sooner, I think they've 225 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,719 Speaker 3: opened the door and so that that might signore a 226 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 3: bit of a shift. But like I say, we've been 227 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 3: here before, we've seen these changes come through, and I'm 228 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 3: never quite sure if I back it. I want to 229 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 3: see a little bit more data and certainly a few 230 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:25,440 Speaker 3: more resounding words from the bank to really lock in 231 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:26,239 Speaker 3: that expectation. 232 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, do you think we'll be first to go? Like 233 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 1: us haven't gone yet, Australia still talk of higher inst rate. Still, 234 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: do you think we'll be the first to start cutting? 235 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 3: I don't know if we'll be the first. I'd still 236 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 3: expect probably the THEED will go in the next month 237 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 3: or two, maybe three months. I do think though, that 238 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 3: OZ is a real life possibility of having to type further. 239 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 3: I mean, their inflation has actually been reaccelerating at least 240 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 3: we don't have that. Sure ours isn't going down as 241 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 3: fast as we might like, but at least it's not 242 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 3: going up. So I think, you know, definitely a different 243 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,319 Speaker 3: risk profile depending on where you are in the world. 244 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, hey, great, thanks for joining us Brad and Geneva 245 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: the morning with a hot day of your head of 246 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: you really appreciate it. Thank you, and thanks also to 247 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 1: everyone for tuning in for this short episode of Shared Lunch. 248 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: You can watch Shared Lunch on YouTube or wherever you 249 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: get your podcasts.