1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,880 Speaker 1: Apparently, because you can never tell with the White House 2 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: the rest of the world, which is us going to 3 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: get the final tariff number sometime between down four o'clock 4 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: this afternoon. Numbers have flown all week, of course, fifty 5 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: for Brazil, twenty five for India, nineteen for Indonesia, fifteen 6 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: to the EU. Todd McLay Trade Minister's with us, good morning. 7 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 2: Make good morning. 8 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: As you sit here this Friday morning, do you know 9 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: what tomorrow's number for US is? 10 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 2: No, No, we don't at all. I mean, the only 11 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 2: real information we have is the same as everyone else 12 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 2: in New Zealand, what's filtering through the world's news media. 13 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 2: I wake up this morning and see that they may 14 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 2: have done something else quite punitive against Canada. So unfortunately 15 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 2: it's a bit of a wait and see. But indications 16 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: are that there could be fifteen percent coming across the 17 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 2: board for everybody in the world. That's a minimum. But 18 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 2: you know, it's an anxious time for some of our exporters. 19 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 2: I guess there's so much uncertainty. 20 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: Indeed, there is also an indication it could be twenty 21 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: Do you rule that out? 22 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: Well, well, we don't know, I was saying to some 23 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 2: of the media yesterday that you know, we've been engaging. 24 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 2: There's ongoing conversations, you know, me at my level with 25 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 2: my counterpart there, it's been extremely constructive. Our embassy is 26 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 2: talking all the time. But you know, it's not sure. 27 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 2: I think, you know, you think about Australia. They've got 28 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 2: a trade deal with America and there I understand it 29 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 2: exactly the same position where I guess it will unfold 30 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: through the media once again. 31 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 1: Yeah, But the problem is that David Seymour we had 32 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: on the program earlier this week, he seemed to take 33 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 1: the look it is, it is what it is. They're 34 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 1: the government of America. They can do whatever they want. 35 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: Is that true? And if it is, how do you 36 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 1: debtail that with what Luxon said, and that is we 37 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 1: don't want to be materially worse off than anyone else, 38 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: which we may well be. 39 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 2: Well, we'll only be materially worse off if others have 40 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 2: a lower tariff. Right, So at the moment we said 41 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 2: at ten percent, which is the floor. In my meeting 42 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: with jameson Grea, who's my counterpart, he said, that's the 43 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 2: new floor. If that floor goes up, but it's just 44 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 2: going to be harmful for New Zealand because tariffs are 45 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: not good. But we're no less competitive than anybody else. 46 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: If others are below that, ever the new rates, then 47 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 2: it would be hard. What we are seeing from our 48 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 2: exporters is in some cases more demand. They're selling more. 49 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: Many have just passed that tariff on, so it means 50 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 2: higher prices for the US. Others are actually saying, well, 51 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 2: I think Europe's a better market. There's more certainly, and 52 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 2: we're getting better prices, so they are adjusting. But might 53 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 2: I want to be clear, you know, tariff rates and 54 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 2: escalation is not good for the world's anonomy, and ultimately 55 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 2: it's not good for consuming And. 56 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 1: The reason I asked the question though, if it's twenty 57 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 1: there are countries who are materially better. There are countries 58 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: with fifteens and nineteens, we lose. What do you do 59 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: about that that's the case. 60 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, Well, we will engage and I'll get 61 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 2: up there fairly quickly. Jermas and Grera invited me up, 62 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 2: but he did say come up later in the year. 63 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 2: He said, we've got a lot of negotiations with countries 64 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 2: who we're going to we have higher tariff rates twenty 65 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 2: thirty forty percent, and we're moving through those. I guess 66 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 2: we're starting to see deals announced, but there's just not 67 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: a lot of detail. I mean, you take the European 68 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 2: Union one, where you know they've said the US has 69 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 2: said it's fifteen percent going in and they've got zero 70 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 2: going to the European Union. Well, the US come out 71 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 2: and said no, that's not the case a deal at all. 72 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 2: So unfortunately for our exports, in fact it's the world exporters, 73 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 2: it's going to remain some uncertainty. However, there's a couple 74 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 2: of bright spots we're seeing in Chris de Mahn for 75 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 2: a lot of these products out of Southeast Asia, certainly China. 76 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 2: Our exports to the EU went up a billion dollars 77 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 2: last year. This is a product that we would normally 78 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:28,079 Speaker 2: put into the EU. So you know, whilst there's uncertaintly 79 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 2: there in the US, and I think that's going to 80 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 2: go on for some time, we are thing strong demand 81 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 2: and certainly in other markets and now our exporters and 82 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 2: nimble they are adjusting, all. 83 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: Right, Todd go well, Todd McClay, Trade Minister this morning, 84 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: Mike likely to see exports of the US subject of fifteen, 85 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: I think fifteen. I think fifteen's about it. Maybe twenty 86 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 1: five for steel and other metals. That's not a major 87 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 1: because we don't do a lot of that. Fifteen, Mike, 88 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 1: would be the reciprocal for the fifteen percent GST probably 89 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: the best we can expect. That would be taken into 90 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: account by the US Balance of trade. Also, of course, anyway, 91 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: why is New Zealand waiting? We should have negotiated our 92 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: trade deal. Well, the answer to that is, no one 93 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: in America gives the monkeys about US. I don't know 94 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: if you realize about that. I doubt that Trump knows 95 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: anything about New Zealand and beyond Lydia Co and Bob Charles, 96 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: they're not interested in cutting a deal with a country 97 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 1: like US specifically, and that's why they blumped us and 98 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 1: with the rest of the world. I mean, hell, Australia 99 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 1: doesn't even have a deal with. 100 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 2: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 101 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow 102 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.