WEBVTT - Leighton Smith Podcast #249 - July 31st 2024 - Patrick Basham & Ramesh Thakur 0:00:09.133 --> 0:00:12.733 You're listening to a podcast from News talkst B. Follow 0:00:12.813 --> 0:00:16.173 this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio. 0:00:16.813 --> 0:00:19.813 It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all 0:00:19.853 --> 0:00:24.933 the information, all the debates of us, now the Leighton 0:00:25.053 --> 0:00:27.733 Smith Podcast powered by News Talks B. 0:00:28.133 --> 0:00:30.613 Welcome to podcast two hundred and forty nine for July 0:00:30.733 --> 0:00:35.253 thirty one, twenty twenty four. Patrick Masham returns after an 0:00:35.253 --> 0:00:40.493 extended but unintended absence I think about ten months. Patrick 0:00:40.533 --> 0:00:44.213 founded the Democracy Institute in Washington, d C. And London 0:00:44.693 --> 0:00:47.773 and his organization does regular polling for the London Daily 0:00:47.813 --> 0:00:51.773 Express and more, and his polling method has proven pretty 0:00:51.773 --> 0:00:56.653 accurate to date. And part two of the eighty minute 0:00:56.733 --> 0:01:01.293 interview that we did with Ramesh thecur on important matters 0:01:01.333 --> 0:01:05.133 such as the dangers of a cash free society, and 0:01:05.173 --> 0:01:09.373 there are plenty diversity in equity and inclusion, etc. And 0:01:09.453 --> 0:01:13.653 we also cover Julian Massage the rights and wrongs as 0:01:13.693 --> 0:01:15.973 we see it, and we have a bit of variation, 0:01:16.813 --> 0:01:20.813 and there are other matters as well. Now, something that 0:01:20.853 --> 0:01:24.533 I'm adverse to doing is predicting the next week's content 0:01:25.093 --> 0:01:29.533 of a podcast, because things tend to happen but the 0:01:29.653 --> 0:01:33.293 announcement today by in New Zealand regarding the company's green 0:01:33.373 --> 0:01:36.733 agenda has well, I've got to say it's amused me. 0:01:37.533 --> 0:01:42.053 Reading comments this morning also frustrated me. So there are 0:01:42.173 --> 0:01:46.333 issues to address, but they will have to wait in 0:01:46.373 --> 0:02:05.013 a moment. Patrick Basham Patrick Bajem is well known to 0:02:05.093 --> 0:02:08.933 the majority of listeners to this podcast because he has 0:02:08.973 --> 0:02:12.493 appeared on numerous occasions over a number of years. In fact, 0:02:12.533 --> 0:02:16.013 we first met I think it was twenty thirteen when 0:02:16.053 --> 0:02:19.613 he was actually in New Zealand. He is the founding 0:02:19.653 --> 0:02:22.973 director of the Democracy Institute, which is based in Washington 0:02:23.493 --> 0:02:27.373 and London. It's a research organization and Patrick does a 0:02:27.413 --> 0:02:30.453 lot of research. In fact, you are doing a great 0:02:30.493 --> 0:02:32.813 deal of research at the moment. Patrick, It's great to 0:02:32.853 --> 0:02:36.253 have you back on the podcast. The Laily Express is 0:02:36.333 --> 0:02:37.453 exploiting your work. 0:02:40.333 --> 0:02:44.173 Yes, indeed, high lighton. Wonderful to be back with you 0:02:44.333 --> 0:02:47.053 and with your final audience. Alwas appreciating the invitation, the 0:02:47.093 --> 0:02:50.893 opportunity to have a conversation with you about important things. Yes, 0:02:51.173 --> 0:02:54.733 we do a lot of public and private polling, and 0:02:55.133 --> 0:02:58.533 most of our public polling in terms of American politics 0:02:59.133 --> 0:03:02.533 is for The Daily Express Family of newspapers out of 0:03:02.573 --> 0:03:05.973 the UK, and so we always do at least a 0:03:05.973 --> 0:03:10.133 monthly poll for them, but we also do more real 0:03:10.213 --> 0:03:15.413 time timely polls when news merits, and there's been a 0:03:15.413 --> 0:03:18.573 lot of that lately. So we continue to pump out 0:03:18.573 --> 0:03:23.013 the numbers. They continue to please some and irritate others, 0:03:23.013 --> 0:03:26.573 but that probably means that we're maybe getting it close 0:03:26.613 --> 0:03:27.093 to the mark. 0:03:27.653 --> 0:03:30.213 Indeed, is it difficult to keep up at the moment. 0:03:31.173 --> 0:03:31.613 It is. 0:03:32.413 --> 0:03:36.373 One of the things that's always difficult with polling is 0:03:36.373 --> 0:03:39.693 is to figure out just what it is that people 0:03:39.733 --> 0:03:41.733 are focused on. You know, you're always asking what most 0:03:41.773 --> 0:03:45.733 important issue is that type of question that your audience 0:03:45.773 --> 0:03:49.293 will be very familiar with, and where in the normal 0:03:49.373 --> 0:03:54.373 course of events that ebbs and flows. But there are 0:03:54.413 --> 0:04:00.413 only occasional events that and it sort of interventions that 0:04:00.613 --> 0:04:03.893 really can in the short, medium or long term really 0:04:03.893 --> 0:04:06.493 sort of upset those particular apple carts or really sort 0:04:06.493 --> 0:04:09.813 of change the nature of the public debate. But in 0:04:09.853 --> 0:04:12.813 the US context, of course, over the last several weeks, 0:04:12.973 --> 0:04:15.533 you know, we had the first we don't have with 0:04:15.573 --> 0:04:18.773 the last to the last Biden Trump debate, Then we 0:04:18.813 --> 0:04:21.093 had the assassination attempt on Trump. Then we had the 0:04:21.133 --> 0:04:24.773 Republican Convention, Then we had Biden quitting the race. Now 0:04:24.813 --> 0:04:28.093 we have you know, Harris against Trump. Apparently, So all 0:04:28.133 --> 0:04:30.773 of this happened within a number of weeks, and most 0:04:30.813 --> 0:04:34.093 of it within there's a couple of weeks at the outside, 0:04:34.533 --> 0:04:37.453 and you're pulling all the time during that and trying 0:04:37.493 --> 0:04:41.973 to catch trying to catch people's while they're paying attention 0:04:42.093 --> 0:04:43.453 to this. 0:04:42.853 --> 0:04:43.853 This new issue. 0:04:44.373 --> 0:04:47.653 Figure out how much change that is creating in voters' 0:04:47.653 --> 0:04:51.613 minds and consequently perhaps their decision making itself and their 0:04:51.613 --> 0:04:54.973 actual voting. But then something else comes along, either while 0:04:55.013 --> 0:04:58.453 you're pulling, right after you've pulled, that doesn't blow it up, 0:04:58.773 --> 0:05:01.173 but just throws up potentially throws a lot of sparing 0:05:01.173 --> 0:05:03.133 of the works in the sense of how do you 0:05:03.213 --> 0:05:06.933 disentangle it all and figure out, Okay, what's happened. The 0:05:07.013 --> 0:05:09.613 change we're seeing is mostly because the assassination attemptor it's 0:05:09.613 --> 0:05:12.573 mostly because Trump's convention speech, where it's mostly because Biden 0:05:12.613 --> 0:05:14.573 got out of the race, it's mostly because of Harris, right, 0:05:14.973 --> 0:05:18.013 and so all of us on the polling side, if 0:05:18.053 --> 0:05:19.893 you know, if we're honest with ourselves and with others, 0:05:20.813 --> 0:05:22.533 you know, it's it's an art. It's art more than 0:05:22.573 --> 0:05:25.973 science when it comes to this stuff, and often people 0:05:25.973 --> 0:05:27.373 say the same. The things to do is just sort 0:05:27.373 --> 0:05:30.013 of let let it all out and just let time 0:05:30.173 --> 0:05:34.373 pass and things will become more obvious with the passage 0:05:34.373 --> 0:05:34.733 of time. 0:05:34.893 --> 0:05:35.773 That's a huge of. 0:05:35.733 --> 0:05:39.613 Course, that we don't have any more of these unexpected 0:05:39.733 --> 0:05:43.493 events happening over the next few weeks and months. 0:05:43.653 --> 0:05:45.853 I've got to I've got to mention my favorite question 0:05:46.213 --> 0:05:47.933 in one of the two polls you've done in the 0:05:47.973 --> 0:05:50.013 last couple of weeks. See if you can guess what 0:05:50.093 --> 0:05:53.733 it is? Yeah, the the so we've got a yes, no, 0:05:54.013 --> 0:05:57.133 and don't know what answers. Thirteen is my lucky number, 0:05:57.813 --> 0:05:59.933 and yes is thirteen. 0:06:03.093 --> 0:06:05.133 Oh it's the Is it the hunt of Biden? 0:06:05.733 --> 0:06:11.893 You got it? Sure, good hunter Biden seek Democratic presidential nomination. 0:06:12.413 --> 0:06:14.613 And it just stunned me that there were actually thirteen 0:06:14.653 --> 0:06:17.493 percent of respondents who said yes. Do you think they 0:06:17.493 --> 0:06:19.613 had any idea what they were talking about? What the 0:06:19.693 --> 0:06:20.133 question was? 0:06:20.973 --> 0:06:22.093 I think so? Would you see? 0:06:22.133 --> 0:06:27.653 That means that about a third a third of Democratic 0:06:27.733 --> 0:06:32.373 voters are saying yes to that, and they are the 0:06:32.453 --> 0:06:36.893 folks who think that Joe Biden is just a wonderful father. 0:06:37.613 --> 0:06:41.573 His son has just had some bad luck and has 0:06:41.613 --> 0:06:45.573 been maligned by the media and the Republicans. And what 0:06:45.893 --> 0:06:48.813 Hunter has been doing, it was doing, you know, well, 0:06:49.013 --> 0:06:50.933 arguably it's still doing, but certainly was doing up to 0:06:51.173 --> 0:06:55.893 Joe Biden's departure from the presidential race, was counseling his father, 0:06:56.173 --> 0:06:58.893 being a good son, trying to run the country as 0:06:58.893 --> 0:07:06.533 best he could in his father's literal absence. And they just, 0:07:06.973 --> 0:07:10.213 you know, they think that thing critical is a lie, 0:07:11.373 --> 0:07:14.133 and they will say they will support anything that Biden 0:07:14.533 --> 0:07:17.253 did or does. They will support anything that anything the 0:07:17.333 --> 0:07:18.613 Hunter does or says. 0:07:19.533 --> 0:07:21.773 You know, it's it's a reflexive default position. 0:07:22.813 --> 0:07:26.693 And but apart from those folks, those find people, everybody 0:07:26.693 --> 0:07:30.533 else pretty much understands that you wouldn't you know, you 0:07:30.573 --> 0:07:34.573 wouldn't want to hunt Biden though within within striking distance 0:07:34.573 --> 0:07:35.213 of running. 0:07:34.933 --> 0:07:38.293 A fish and chip shop, let alone the presidency. 0:07:39.293 --> 0:07:44.493 Well at least you'd have access to his supply. 0:07:43.053 --> 0:07:48.733 The the no figure was absolutely you, yes, there was 0:07:48.773 --> 0:07:51.493 a madness to there was a method to his madness. 0:07:51.093 --> 0:07:55.293 Perhaps, yes, So the no vote was eighty four percent 0:07:55.333 --> 0:07:57.773 and don't know, three percent you can forgive that. Don't 0:07:57.813 --> 0:08:01.253 know it's because there's always a bunch of them. But 0:08:02.653 --> 0:08:09.373 the pulling that you've done throughout some throughout numbers and attitudes, 0:08:10.213 --> 0:08:14.253 and for instance, let me go back to the very basics, 0:08:14.933 --> 0:08:18.253 should Biden resign the presidency. So this is out of date, 0:08:18.893 --> 0:08:22.373 but the yes vote was sixty three percent, twenty eight 0:08:22.413 --> 0:08:25.973 and don't know nine, So that is now that has 0:08:26.053 --> 0:08:32.893 now happened, and we transit to missus Harris, and she's 0:08:32.973 --> 0:08:36.573 doing pretty well at the moment. How would how would 0:08:36.893 --> 0:08:38.933 I don't think you've done anything on her just yet, 0:08:39.133 --> 0:08:42.693 but how would she be performing now in your polling? 0:08:42.733 --> 0:08:43.253 Do you think? 0:08:44.333 --> 0:08:46.733 Well, we actually did our most recent poll that came 0:08:46.773 --> 0:08:50.013 out over last week, just a few days ago. It's 0:08:50.053 --> 0:08:53.173 the first poll that we have had her up against 0:08:53.173 --> 0:08:56.773 Trump as the presumptive nominee. We've been polling Trump against 0:08:56.813 --> 0:09:01.013 Harris for quite some time as a possibility if if 0:09:01.013 --> 0:09:04.613 Biden jumped or was pushed. But so we do have 0:09:04.693 --> 0:09:08.413 one since she since Biden left the president that the 0:09:09.333 --> 0:09:14.133 election scene, and since she jumped in and was anointed 0:09:14.133 --> 0:09:16.173 by all the important people in the Democratic Party, we 0:09:16.253 --> 0:09:20.533 do have one one poll on this and so I 0:09:20.573 --> 0:09:23.493 would say in answering, in answering your question about what 0:09:23.493 --> 0:09:26.773 do we think is also pushing back a little against 0:09:26.853 --> 0:09:30.813 your sort of introduction to this, in that I would 0:09:30.813 --> 0:09:35.173 say that Harris isn't doing particularly well, and that the 0:09:36.133 --> 0:09:40.133 narrative that in the last several days everything has changed 0:09:40.813 --> 0:09:44.933 and this is now an uber competitive race where Harris 0:09:45.413 --> 0:09:47.493 is really sort of neck and neck with Trump is 0:09:47.773 --> 0:09:51.013 to this point sort of without foundation, and I can 0:09:51.573 --> 0:09:53.493 I can risk boring you in your audience. 0:09:53.133 --> 0:09:55.013 By sort of fletting that out a little. If you'd 0:09:55.053 --> 0:09:57.573 like it, go for it. 0:09:57.613 --> 0:10:01.573 Well, Okay, So first of all, this the context of 0:10:02.493 --> 0:10:08.253 the media narrative in America pre debate with Biden was 0:10:08.453 --> 0:10:12.493 that is a very competitive close race, right, and the 0:10:12.733 --> 0:10:16.293 criticisms of Biden from the Republicans weren't sticking because they 0:10:16.293 --> 0:10:20.173 were so manufactured and the things in the country were 0:10:20.173 --> 0:10:22.933 pretty good. Just that Biden wasn't getting enough credit. So 0:10:22.973 --> 0:10:25.613 therefore it was a competitive race, otherwise he would have 0:10:25.653 --> 0:10:28.293 won it to be winning easily. Then the debate comes 0:10:28.333 --> 0:10:31.453 along and everybody sees what the other side has been 0:10:31.493 --> 0:10:33.853 saying for years, which is Biden can't do the job. 0:10:34.613 --> 0:10:39.093 Everybody pretty much agrees, and then Biden started to lose 0:10:39.133 --> 0:10:42.653 support apparently, which was true. He lost more support. Then 0:10:42.693 --> 0:10:45.693 the assassination attempt comes on Trump, build sympathy for Trump. 0:10:46.333 --> 0:10:51.013 Then the Republican invention happens, good, you know, positive vibes 0:10:51.373 --> 0:10:53.333 for Trump and the Republicans. So at the end of 0:10:53.333 --> 0:10:58.093 that process, everyone's agreeing that Trump is a shoe in 0:10:58.453 --> 0:11:01.613 to win. But what I would argue is that for 0:11:01.693 --> 0:11:04.973 a year Trump was in a very strong position. Weren't 0:11:04.973 --> 0:11:08.093 guaranteed to win, but pre debate he was a heavy favorite. 0:11:08.373 --> 0:11:10.853 Everything that happened, the debate, the assassination attempt, the convention 0:11:11.293 --> 0:11:16.813 made it going from quite probable to almost guarantee. 0:11:17.173 --> 0:11:20.573 So I sail this because the media. 0:11:20.413 --> 0:11:24.133 And the Democrats publicly at least refused to acknowledge the 0:11:24.173 --> 0:11:26.973 fact that Trump was in such a strong position. They've 0:11:26.973 --> 0:11:30.293 always they've argued the problem was Biden has simply become 0:11:30.373 --> 0:11:33.693 too old and appeared not up to the job anymore 0:11:33.933 --> 0:11:38.933 more physically than anything. So they've switched out Biden for Harris, 0:11:39.253 --> 0:11:41.693 and they're saying, so there we are, We're right, right, 0:11:41.733 --> 0:11:44.333 we were right. It wasn't about the policies or how 0:11:44.333 --> 0:11:47.373 people felt about the country. About Biden's as a president, 0:11:47.413 --> 0:11:49.733 it was simply, you know, he was too snow seen 0:11:49.733 --> 0:11:51.693 as too old. No, we've got this young, energetic vice 0:11:51.773 --> 0:11:54.053 president and she's going to do really well. 0:11:54.053 --> 0:11:57.093 And look at these polls showing that she's doing really well. 0:11:57.093 --> 0:12:01.293 What those polls The reason those polls are showing that 0:12:01.453 --> 0:12:04.533 Trump's lead has shrunk or you know, might even be 0:12:05.133 --> 0:12:08.053 neck and neck with Harris, is that what those polls 0:12:08.053 --> 0:12:12.453 are doing is they are I don't know if it's intentional, 0:12:12.493 --> 0:12:16.573 but certainly the outcome is that they are over sampling Democrats. 0:12:16.893 --> 0:12:22.173 They're including too many Democrats disproportionate number of Democrats, then 0:12:22.213 --> 0:12:26.653 their size of the electorate. And that means that if 0:12:26.853 --> 0:12:30.493 you have five to ten percent too many Democrats almost 0:12:30.573 --> 0:12:32.493 whom all of whom are going to vote for the 0:12:32.533 --> 0:12:35.893 Democratic candidate, then you get it. Instead of trumping up 0:12:35.893 --> 0:12:37.773 by six, he's up by two, or Istred, of being 0:12:37.813 --> 0:12:39.653 up by four, it's now a tie, or Harris is 0:12:39.733 --> 0:12:42.613 up by one, this kind of thing. If you are 0:12:43.973 --> 0:12:46.773 more careful about these things, as I hope we are 0:12:46.853 --> 0:12:49.893 and some others are, then what you see is what 0:12:49.933 --> 0:12:53.853 we see, which is we see almost no change. So, 0:12:54.013 --> 0:12:59.613 for example, after the convention and the assassination attempt. Our 0:12:59.653 --> 0:13:06.013 second most recent poll, we had Trump up nine against Biden. 0:13:06.813 --> 0:13:11.173 Our first poll, almost recent poll Trump against Harris, Trump 0:13:11.213 --> 0:13:13.293 is up eight and. 0:13:14.693 --> 0:13:17.573 Trump's numbers aren't down significantly. 0:13:17.973 --> 0:13:22.213 What it is is that Democrats were so depressed and 0:13:22.973 --> 0:13:26.733 disenchanted with Biden by the time he dropped out. The 0:13:26.773 --> 0:13:30.493 fact they now have a living, breathing candidate, they are relieved, 0:13:30.933 --> 0:13:34.533 They are at least temporarily energized. And some of them 0:13:34.573 --> 0:13:36.053 who were not going to vote, and some of them 0:13:36.093 --> 0:13:39.253 who are going to vote for Robert Kennedy Junior as 0:13:39.253 --> 0:13:43.853 a sort of sort of protest, I've sort of come back. 0:13:44.173 --> 0:13:47.453 So Harris is the margin between Harris and Trump is 0:13:47.573 --> 0:13:51.733 one point in our polling, different less different than what 0:13:51.773 --> 0:13:54.973 it was, smaller than what it was between Trump and Biden. 0:13:55.533 --> 0:13:58.413 And if you look at, you know, all the demographic breakdown, 0:13:59.533 --> 0:14:01.733 all of those numbers that were looking so good for 0:14:01.773 --> 0:14:05.013 Trump and so bad for Biden among blacks and Hispanics, 0:14:05.613 --> 0:14:08.253 even amongst women, the white working class in the PA, 0:14:08.333 --> 0:14:10.413 and they're all those numbers haven't shifted. 0:14:11.013 --> 0:14:13.093 Those numbers are still the same. Now this is the. 0:14:13.053 --> 0:14:14.893 First poll, you know, we'll be doing lots of polls 0:14:14.933 --> 0:14:17.973 between now and November five. Yep, but there's no Well, 0:14:17.973 --> 0:14:20.173 my point is that we've been told as a search 0:14:20.573 --> 0:14:24.333 that everything's changed now, and what I'm suggesting to your 0:14:24.373 --> 0:14:28.453 audience is that there is no us there's no rigorous 0:14:28.533 --> 0:14:30.093 empirical evidence to support that. 0:14:32.413 --> 0:14:34.853 I'm looking at the the figures that you mentioned. I 0:14:34.893 --> 0:14:36.973 only had to spool down two pages and I found 0:14:36.973 --> 0:14:41.253 it and realized that I was in era. But I 0:14:41.293 --> 0:14:45.573 did wonder. I had wondered that poll was done. I'm 0:14:45.613 --> 0:14:49.453 looking at the demographic subgroups just at the moment, and 0:14:49.493 --> 0:14:52.773 then there's the main one forty eight to forty to 0:14:52.853 --> 0:14:59.253 Harris above it. That was done after after Joe stood 0:14:59.293 --> 0:15:04.773 down and she was declared the runner, or prior to that. 0:15:05.973 --> 0:15:08.813 Yeah, it was afterwards, because he stood down on the Sunday, 0:15:09.413 --> 0:15:11.493 and then in the next forty eight to seventy two hours, 0:15:11.533 --> 0:15:12.453 I mean, she declared her. 0:15:12.493 --> 0:15:14.813 It was immediately she was endorsed by Bob. 0:15:15.053 --> 0:15:16.973 The only thing that hadn't happened by the time we 0:15:17.013 --> 0:15:19.893 took the poll is Obama hadn't endorsed her, but everyone 0:15:19.893 --> 0:15:23.333 had come together. They'd announced that there weren't going to 0:15:23.373 --> 0:15:25.693 be any other candidates allowed at the convention, et cetera, 0:15:25.733 --> 0:15:29.693 et cetera. So at that point, the only shooter drop 0:15:29.973 --> 0:15:33.253 was and I thought this might be possible that Obama 0:15:33.333 --> 0:15:35.893 because he didn't want Harris. But it turns out he's 0:15:35.893 --> 0:15:39.893 been out maneuvered by her and her cabal, that he 0:15:40.373 --> 0:15:43.653 was holding back an endorsement because he had another candidate 0:15:43.653 --> 0:15:45.533 in mind and he was going to jump He's going 0:15:45.573 --> 0:15:47.733 to throw in at the convention. And I thought that 0:15:47.853 --> 0:15:49.853 might be you know that if it was a silver 0:15:49.893 --> 0:15:52.613 bullet for the Democrats, that would be it. Obama being 0:15:52.613 --> 0:15:55.813 a very savvy operator in these in these regards, but 0:15:56.373 --> 0:15:58.213 he saw the writing on the wall. He wasn't able 0:15:58.213 --> 0:16:00.333 to wouldn't be able to get Harris out. So subsequent 0:16:00.333 --> 0:16:04.173 to that poll, he's endorsed. Obviously, he's endorsed Harris. 0:16:04.773 --> 0:16:07.533 I'm interested also in who convinced Biden to leave in 0:16:07.573 --> 0:16:13.533 people's opinion, and that runs from thirty six percent thinks Obama, 0:16:14.133 --> 0:16:18.613 and surprisingly who convinced Biden to leave on four percent 0:16:18.933 --> 0:16:20.093 was Jill Biden. 0:16:21.373 --> 0:16:25.053 Yes, yes, well people recognize, I mean it's you know, 0:16:25.093 --> 0:16:29.493 it's not exactly a secret that Joe Biden didn't want 0:16:29.533 --> 0:16:32.173 to go. But there was a there was a window 0:16:32.213 --> 0:16:37.293 of persuadability there. But Jill Biden everybody knew she had. 0:16:37.413 --> 0:16:40.293 She was gripping on to the furniture in the Oval office. 0:16:40.573 --> 0:16:42.533 She was not going to give up her presidency. I mean, 0:16:42.533 --> 0:16:45.573 I'm sorry, her position is first Lady without a fight, 0:16:45.733 --> 0:16:49.133 right literally, I mean, there are strong rooms. I don't 0:16:49.133 --> 0:16:50.933 know if they're true, but I suspect they may be that. 0:16:51.053 --> 0:16:55.773 For the past two years, Joe Biden was okay with 0:16:56.053 --> 0:16:58.533 leaving as long as he left was able to leave 0:16:58.573 --> 0:17:00.813 with his head held high, but Jill. 0:17:00.613 --> 0:17:02.933 Biden refused to go along with it. 0:17:03.613 --> 0:17:06.573 And more recently, of course, Joe Biden wasn't going and 0:17:06.653 --> 0:17:08.253 didn't go with his head held high. 0:17:08.573 --> 0:17:09.773 And that was his problem. 0:17:09.813 --> 0:17:13.653 He just couldn't bear the thought of being ousted and 0:17:13.693 --> 0:17:15.213 what that would mean for his legacy. 0:17:16.253 --> 0:17:18.853 And of course, it turns out they. 0:17:18.693 --> 0:17:20.893 Were able to get him out because Obama and Harris 0:17:20.933 --> 0:17:24.133 were able to tell him, you know, look, you either 0:17:24.173 --> 0:17:27.533 go now or we're going to, you know, in vote 0:17:27.533 --> 0:17:30.093 the twenty fifth Amendment and we'll get the votes and 0:17:30.133 --> 0:17:32.453 they'll kick you out because you're incapacitated. 0:17:32.893 --> 0:17:34.733 And how that going to look on your legacy? 0:17:34.813 --> 0:17:36.973 So you know, the Letter of two evils as far 0:17:36.973 --> 0:17:39.653 as by Joe Biden was concerned, but I'm sure Jill 0:17:39.733 --> 0:17:44.053 Biden probably had to be medicated in order to get 0:17:44.093 --> 0:17:45.373 her literally out of the building. 0:17:45.973 --> 0:17:48.013 Well, come time for the changeover, I think they should 0:17:48.013 --> 0:17:53.133 have armguards on the on the White House, indeed, especially 0:17:53.213 --> 0:17:57.093 the furniture rooms. Let me just ask you for your 0:17:57.213 --> 0:18:00.933 personal opinion on how this will turn out. I mean, 0:18:00.973 --> 0:18:03.733 I know it's a long call still, but how do 0:18:03.813 --> 0:18:04.693 you think it will end up? 0:18:06.413 --> 0:18:07.733 Strictly the election itself. 0:18:07.933 --> 0:18:16.053 Yeah, with the obvious but necessary caveat that anything can 0:18:16.133 --> 0:18:17.933 happen with ninety nine days out of the time I'm 0:18:17.933 --> 0:18:20.893 speaking with you, Layton, so with less than one hundred days, 0:18:21.133 --> 0:18:23.653 there's plenty of time for something major to happen. And 0:18:23.693 --> 0:18:27.133 obviously the last several weeks tell us that major things 0:18:27.173 --> 0:18:29.013 can happen, some predictable, some not. 0:18:29.973 --> 0:18:32.773 So with that caveat out of. 0:18:32.693 --> 0:18:37.053 The way, I would say it is highly improbable that 0:18:37.293 --> 0:18:41.533 Harris can pull this off. And just to sort of 0:18:41.853 --> 0:18:48.813 hopefully the audience ske sort of Pracie my rationale. If 0:18:48.853 --> 0:18:51.973 you're looking at this, you take the names away, take 0:18:52.053 --> 0:18:55.933 Harris away, and all the pros and the connotations that 0:18:55.973 --> 0:18:58.893 go with that name, and Trump away and the connotations 0:18:58.893 --> 0:19:01.333 that go with his name. You look at the state 0:19:01.373 --> 0:19:04.933 of the country economically, socially, in terms of foreign policy, 0:19:05.133 --> 0:19:08.573 place in the world, all of that, and you look 0:19:08.693 --> 0:19:10.613 not just at the raw numbers, but you look at 0:19:10.853 --> 0:19:14.653 what people what most people, what their quality of life is, 0:19:14.693 --> 0:19:18.813 what their what their fears, frustrations are, their anger, how 0:19:18.853 --> 0:19:20.813 they see the direction of the country, how see their 0:19:20.813 --> 0:19:22.533 own they see their own futures. 0:19:22.733 --> 0:19:23.133 You see. 0:19:23.213 --> 0:19:26.533 You look at how young people are viewing things quite 0:19:26.533 --> 0:19:27.373 differently than they. 0:19:27.213 --> 0:19:29.413 Were when Obama was president. 0:19:30.053 --> 0:19:34.333 You look at how Hispanics are looking at uh looking 0:19:34.373 --> 0:19:37.013 heavily towards the Republicans in a way they happened since 0:19:37.013 --> 0:19:37.533 George W. 0:19:37.653 --> 0:19:41.093 Bush. You look at how arguably a fifth to a quarter. 0:19:40.933 --> 0:19:44.693 Of black voters seriously thinking of voting in a way 0:19:44.693 --> 0:19:48.173 that they ever voted before. And then you say, you 0:19:48.293 --> 0:19:52.733 have a president, if a former president running whose presidency, 0:19:53.293 --> 0:19:56.133 whilst almost would argue it was demonstrably far superior to 0:19:56.173 --> 0:19:59.853 the one that followed it, the current one. The important 0:19:59.853 --> 0:20:04.333 point is that if you ask, if you ask Americans 0:20:04.373 --> 0:20:06.893 what they think of Trump's presidency, was it a success 0:20:06.973 --> 0:20:09.493 or a failure. Was it better or worse than what's come? 0:20:09.613 --> 0:20:15.773 Since they have always been surprisingly positive about Trump's presidency, 0:20:15.853 --> 0:20:19.533 will they be passing month of the Biden presidency, they 0:20:19.613 --> 0:20:22.253 become more favorable. So now the retrospective for you on 0:20:22.413 --> 0:20:26.133 Trump the fore and president is more positive than negative, 0:20:26.213 --> 0:20:30.893 much more. And then you have a vice president attempted 0:20:30.933 --> 0:20:34.293 to succeed the president who. 0:20:34.813 --> 0:20:37.013 Has never run for national office. 0:20:37.053 --> 0:20:40.853 Well, she's run for her party's nomination once, but did 0:20:40.933 --> 0:20:43.493 so poorly. She had to get out before any votes 0:20:43.533 --> 0:20:45.253 were cast because it was going to be a disaster. 0:20:46.133 --> 0:20:51.533 Who who throughout her Korea has never won a competitive race, 0:20:52.533 --> 0:20:54.813 you know, just hasn't it hasn't had that opportunity or. 0:20:54.973 --> 0:20:57.133 Or has failed when she's when she's attempted it. 0:20:57.373 --> 0:21:03.293 And who has historically low favorability ratings, and is ranked 0:21:03.373 --> 0:21:06.333 ranked by the public, not by historians, but it's ranked 0:21:06.373 --> 0:21:09.373 by the public as of the worst vice president anyone 0:21:09.373 --> 0:21:14.253 can remember. You pull that together, and it's hard to 0:21:14.333 --> 0:21:17.813 see how it adds up literally or figuratively in favor 0:21:18.293 --> 0:21:23.773 of Harris. It just, you know, it's just the trends 0:21:23.773 --> 0:21:27.373 aren't there, The signs aren't there. It doesn't you know, 0:21:27.413 --> 0:21:31.213 It just doesn't seem plausible that a race that was 0:21:31.893 --> 0:21:36.693 Trump's almost guarantee to win ten days ago is going 0:21:36.733 --> 0:21:40.133 to be a close run thing because they swapped out 0:21:40.373 --> 0:21:43.853 a very unpopular president for an even more unpopular candidate. 0:21:44.773 --> 0:21:48.133 Now I'm going to count to you because she has 0:21:48.573 --> 0:21:51.533 won something where she was voted in. 0:21:51.973 --> 0:21:54.853 Did you know that which will voted into to which position? 0:21:55.013 --> 0:21:59.653 Well, let me quote you and declare from the current 0:21:59.893 --> 0:22:04.693 Spectator Australia. James Allen, Who's Jim Allen, who is a 0:22:04.693 --> 0:22:09.013 Canadian law professor who works in Well, he was in 0:22:09.053 --> 0:22:11.893 New Zealand for a number of years and now in Queensland. 0:22:12.653 --> 0:22:14.853 I will to quote you a diversity pick in the 0:22:14.893 --> 0:22:19.253 oval office. Carl Harris does have one political victory. It's 0:22:19.293 --> 0:22:23.213 the only democratically chosen office that saw her run required 0:22:23.253 --> 0:22:27.333 actual voters to pick the winner, and she won. That 0:22:27.453 --> 0:22:29.733 was back in twenty ten when Miss Arras ran for 0:22:29.813 --> 0:22:33.133 the office of Attorney General of California. In that election, 0:22:33.293 --> 0:22:37.413 Jerry Brown won the governorship against the Republican by thirteen points. 0:22:38.213 --> 0:22:42.173 Barbara Boxer defeated her Republican opponent for the California Senate 0:22:42.253 --> 0:22:46.533 seat race that year by ten points, and Kamala Harris 0:22:46.533 --> 0:22:52.053 defeated the Republican candidate in twenty ten by wait for it, 0:22:52.453 --> 0:22:58.013 zero point eight percent. Yes, yes, and that's in California. 0:22:58.133 --> 0:23:01.293 Let me remind you exactly. 0:23:02.413 --> 0:23:06.773 She has the unique status of being the only Democrat 0:23:06.813 --> 0:23:10.813 in California to turn and an uncompetitive state wide race 0:23:10.813 --> 0:23:11.893 into a competitive one. 0:23:12.173 --> 0:23:14.093 Yeah, and that you. 0:23:14.013 --> 0:23:17.053 Know, this is this is who they're hanging their hopes upon, 0:23:17.213 --> 0:23:20.533 right and we see, I mean, just we know all 0:23:20.573 --> 0:23:21.853 how wonderful it's going for her. 0:23:21.893 --> 0:23:23.893 We've been told the last few days. But if you 0:23:23.973 --> 0:23:25.853 see what. 0:23:25.053 --> 0:23:28.253 What they're doing, how they're campaigning, it tells us a lot. 0:23:28.333 --> 0:23:32.133 Because the Kamal Harris campaign, they started advertising and they 0:23:32.213 --> 0:23:36.933