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Speaker 1: The cost of living crisis appears to continue to scare

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Speaker 1: kiwi's off. New data shows food prices are up five

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Speaker 1: percent in the year to July. Net migration for the

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Speaker 1: month is down eighty percent on last year. We're getting

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Speaker 1: very close to a new record high of kiwis leaving

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Speaker 1: the country. Brad Olson is a principal economist at Informetrics

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Speaker 1: and with US. Now, hey, Brad, good evening, what's driving

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Speaker 1: the food price up?

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Speaker 2: Well, we're seeing that the same dairy costs that we've

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Speaker 2: been focused on the last couple of months are still

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Speaker 2: a key part of that discussion. Now that's a little

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Speaker 2: bit of an annual comparison thing. Of course, we've talked

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Speaker 2: a lot about butter in recent times. Interestingly, in July,

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Speaker 2: the price of butter, the cheapest butter that the stats

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Speaker 2: in Z investigators could find, was broadly the same as

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Speaker 2: it was last month, so a lot of the big

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Speaker 2: increases having come through not seeing quite as much further.

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Speaker 2: But you're seeing other costs likes of milk now that's

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Speaker 2: up considerably of course as well, but also the likes

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Speaker 2: of meat. You're looking at steak and mints that are

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Speaker 2: both seeing higher in July. And that's consistent with what

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Speaker 2: we saw in the grocery supply cost index when we

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Speaker 2: looked at input costs. Is that those higher meat prices

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Speaker 2: that we're getting overseas good news for exporders, of course,

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Speaker 2: means that some of our domestic prices are heading up

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Speaker 2: to So you're right now seeing those food price inflation

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Speaker 2: figures up to five percent. Probably won't change the dial

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Speaker 2: when it comes to the Reserve Bank meeting next week,

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Speaker 2: but of course very uncomfortable for households who are having

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Speaker 2: to pay more for the essentials.

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Speaker 1: I mean, common sense would dictate this as part of

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Speaker 1: the reason why Kiwis are leaving.

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Speaker 2: Right, I think that partly, But I think we've also

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Speaker 2: got to be clear that some of these increases you're

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Speaker 2: seeing overseas as well, there's still high prices for a

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Speaker 2: number of products. I mean you look at some areas

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Speaker 2: like the UK where their inflation has started to reaccelerate

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Speaker 2: like our, So it's part of the story. I think though,

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Speaker 2: what's interesting looking at those migration numbers that you've highlighted

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Speaker 2: is that you've still got the sort of real divide. Yes,

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Speaker 2: there's a very large number of New Zealanders that are leaving,

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Speaker 2: but there's also quite a large number of people that

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Speaker 2: have still come into the country, at least relative to

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Speaker 2: sort of more normal times before the pandemic. So we

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Speaker 2: do have I think, you know, it's not a one

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Speaker 2: way door policy at the moment, Heather. It's very much

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Speaker 2: sort of two doors at one exit, one enter, but

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Speaker 2: quite a lot of people going through both.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Hey, Brad, thank you as always, Brad Olson, Informetric's

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Speaker 1: principal economist. For more from Heather Duplessy Alan Drive, listen

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