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Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk ZEDB. Follow this

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Speaker 1: and our wide range of podcast now on iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 2: We are going to turn our focus to Iran. The

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Speaker 2: situation there is absolutely appalling. Estimates up to thirty six

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Speaker 2: thousand lives have been lost at the hands of the

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Speaker 2: Islamic regime, yet it hasn't grabbed the same global attention

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Speaker 2: as other crises. Why is that? A little bit later on,

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Speaker 2: we are going to be speaking to doctor Farau Ahman,

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Speaker 2: she is the head and founder of the Islamic Woman's

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Speaker 2: Council here in New Zealand, to discuss what is life

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Speaker 2: like on the ground in Iran right now. But joining

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Speaker 2: us just after the break, we will speak to Professor

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Speaker 2: Ali Ansari. He's going to help us unpack the history

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Speaker 2: surrounding modern Iran. He is a world leader in that area.

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Speaker 2: So that is coming up very news doorg ZB. Iran

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Speaker 2: is facing one of its most serious waves of unrest

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Speaker 2: in years. Protests that began over a collapsing currency and

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Speaker 2: soaring living costs has spread across the country, exposing deep

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Speaker 2: frustration with the government's political and economic direction, with the

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Speaker 2: regime once again using violent force to quell dissent to

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Speaker 2: help us understand how Iran reached this point and what

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Speaker 2: it could mean for the future of the Islamic Republic.

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Speaker 2: Were joined by Professor Ali and Sari, a historian of

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Speaker 2: modern Iran and a leading expert on its politics, society,

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Speaker 2: and international relations. Professor and Sari, welcome.

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Speaker 3: Good to be with you.

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Speaker 4: This is a big question, but can you quickly sum

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Speaker 4: up the history of Iran from the Persian era until

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Speaker 4: the Islamic Revolution.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm not sure. I'm not sure we can do

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Speaker 3: it very quickly. But I mean, up until nineteen seventy nine,

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Speaker 3: Iran was a monarchy, a monarchy that, certainly in the

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Speaker 3: twentieth century and for much of the I mean, I

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Speaker 3: suppose for the previous two hundred years it had contended

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Speaker 3: with the challenge of what was then obviously the British

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Speaker 3: and Russian empires, and then the twentieth century sort of

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Speaker 3: modernize itself. But in modernizing and in moving forward on

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Speaker 3: certain levels, I mean, one of the things that the

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Speaker 3: monarchy failed to do, I think was too although it

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Speaker 3: advanced economically, it didn't do so politically very quickly. And

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Speaker 3: one of the consequences of that course is that people

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Speaker 3: who were becoming educated, were becoming more literate, we're becoming wealthier,

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Speaker 3: were finding that they were cut out from the sort

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Speaker 3: of the political life of the country. And you know,

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Speaker 3: one of the consequences, I suppose was the Islamic Revolution

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Speaker 3: in nineteen seventy nine. So the Islamic Revolution then takes

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Speaker 3: the country down another route. On the one level, it

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Speaker 3: becomes a republic as opposed to a monarchy, but then

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Speaker 3: it's an Islamic republic, and that means that it's a

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Speaker 3: sort of a hybrid, a rather awkward marriage, I think

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Speaker 3: is the best way to look at it, where it's

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Speaker 3: got sort of republican elements which we would find familiar,

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Speaker 3: but overlain over that is this sort of Islamic theocracy.

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Speaker 3: And over the last forty seven years, the republic has

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Speaker 3: essentially faded out of view and the Islamic autocracy has

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Speaker 3: become much much more prominent and is front and center.

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Speaker 3: And it's really that sort of failure yet again to

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Speaker 3: respond to society's needs and to move towards the sort

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Speaker 3: of a political settlement that we might describe as democratic

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Speaker 3: that has resulted in yet more protests, and the protests

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Speaker 3: are now becoming very, very severe, particularly because unlike the

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Speaker 3: monarchy that it overthrew, the Islamic Republic has shown itself

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Speaker 3: to be particularly inept and particularly incompetent, and particularly corrupt

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Speaker 3: in the handling of the economy. So whatever that was

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Speaker 3: wrong with the Shah and the Shah's regime, at the

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Speaker 3: end of the day, the economy wasn't in bad shape.

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Speaker 3: In fact, one would argue that it's precisely because the

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Speaker 3: economy was doing reasonably well that people had attained a

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Speaker 3: certain level of aspiration that had pushed them towards revolution.

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Speaker 3: But now you're finding a situation where on many different

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Speaker 3: levels there's a huge amount of discontent because of the

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Speaker 3: inability of the regime to actually deliver on basic goods

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Speaker 3: for the people. So on every different level there's a

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Speaker 3: sort of a crisis facing the region.

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Speaker 4: Describe the structure of the Iranian political system since then?

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Speaker 4: Was it doomed to fail?

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Speaker 3: I don't think you can ever say that any the

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Speaker 3: collapse of any political system is inevitable. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: think there were opportunities in these forty seven years when

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Speaker 3: the Islamic Republican and its leadership might have taken a

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Speaker 3: different path and certainly, up until two thousand and five,

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Speaker 3: there was the opportunity for the regime to go down

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Speaker 3: a much more open, transparent, accountable you know, we could

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Speaker 3: call it a sort of democratic route. But since two

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Speaker 3: thousand and five it's moved emphatically towards this sort of autocratic,

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Speaker 3: autocratic bend, and that has basically undermined it. Now, you

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Speaker 3: could say the roots of all this were clear from

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Speaker 3: nineteen seventy nine, and I think that's fair. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you can look at the problems. One of the major

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Speaker 3: issues of the Islamic Revolution the Republic that followed it

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Speaker 3: is that cause it inherited a fairly sort of powerful

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Speaker 3: state from the path of the monarchy. So it inherited

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Speaker 3: it a fairly sort of in terms of lives lost,

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Speaker 3: it has to be sold on a fairly cheap price,

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Speaker 3: and so it got this sort of conception of it.

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Speaker 3: So it basically the revolutionary leadership became complacent, became arrogant,

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Speaker 3: became lubistic. They couldn't believe their luck that they'd inherited

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Speaker 3: this rather wealthy state, you know, at a relatively light cost.

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Speaker 3: They obviously ascribed this all to divine providence. You know,

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Speaker 3: this was the This was God bestowing blessings upon them,

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Speaker 3: and they were duty bound to obviously spend these wonderful blessings.

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Speaker 3: But as a consequence of that, they never really learned

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Speaker 3: the value of anything, and they didn't really sort of

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Speaker 3: learn that, you know, the state needs to be built,

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Speaker 3: I mean, the state and its variety of forms. You

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Speaker 3: have to invest in it, and they didn't. And as

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Speaker 3: a consequence of that, you know, they spent down an inheritance.

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Speaker 3: And as I said, you know, really from two thousand

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Speaker 3: and five one was they accelerated down this route of

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Speaker 3: extraordinary hubris and corruption. And this is unfortunately the state

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Speaker 3: we see today where a country that sits on the

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Speaker 3: second largest natural gas reserves in the world, the fourth

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Speaker 3: largest oil reserves in the world, and abundance human and

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Speaker 3: other sort of capital cannot deliver water, gas, electricity whatever

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Speaker 3: to its people because it's failed to failed to invest

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Speaker 3: in basic infrastructure.

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Speaker 2: You've argued the Islamic Republic is likely entering the terminal phase.

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Speaker 2: So with all those elements and mind from a historical bespeact,

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Speaker 2: is this moment different from the crises the regime has

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Speaker 2: survived before.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think all these crises build and reinforce on

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Speaker 3: each other. So as a historian, I have to say

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Speaker 3: I do take the long view, and for me, you know,

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Speaker 3: two thousand and nine is really the inflection point, you know,

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Speaker 3: when things begin to turn. And I think in future

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Speaker 3: historians when they look back at the demise of these

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Speaker 3: Anal republic, they will look at two thousand and nine

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Speaker 3: as that pivot. And that's the moment when people basically

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Speaker 3: decided that reform is impossible. But you know, this is

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Speaker 3: not getting anywhere, and things are going to be difficult.

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Speaker 3: But of course this takes time, and when you have

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Speaker 3: huge resources at your beck and call, you can sort

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Speaker 3: of resist or you can slow the process of decay

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Speaker 3: as far as you as far as you might manage it.

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Speaker 3: But then twenty seventeen, twenty nineteen, twenty twenty two, and

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Speaker 3: again now in twenty twenty six, you get a series

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Speaker 3: of protests, each of which sort of work to, you know,

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Speaker 3: break down the social and political fabric of the state. Now,

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Speaker 3: you know, when we get that tipping point. Who knows?

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Speaker 3: What we do know is that both in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 3: also now they've shown the weakness of the state and

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Speaker 3: also the regime itself has viewed them as in some

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Speaker 3: ways existential. See, you know these could have tipped over.

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Speaker 3: I mean, both of these could have tipped over. They didn't,

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Speaker 3: particularly because in this case they have used extraordinary levels

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Speaker 3: of violence. But my sense is that the level of

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Speaker 3: violence is so excessive on this occasion that they have

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Speaker 3: really indulged in overkill. I mean, there is no going

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Speaker 3: back to them from this. And you listen to people

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Speaker 3: in Iran as well that even people who are sort

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Speaker 3: of loyal in a sense to the political system are

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Speaker 3: really in deep shock at what's happened. I mean one

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Speaker 3: of them I was listening today. I mean he's been arrested, obviously,

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Speaker 3: because that's what happens when you speak out. But he

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Speaker 3: basically said that this is the darkest day in the

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Speaker 3: history of the Unty Republican and one of the darkest

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Speaker 3: days in the history of Iran, and we will never

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Speaker 3: recover from it. I mean he basically he said, you know,

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Speaker 3: the vast majority of people who are killed in the

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Speaker 3: last you know, in January were between the ages of

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Speaker 3: sort of sixteen and twenty five, at possibly thirty, but

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Speaker 3: I mean certainly young. And you know, we are now

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Speaker 3: thinking that probably up to upwards about twenty thousand people

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Speaker 3: were slaughtered. Now that that's an extraordinary, extraordinary level of

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Speaker 3: violence for a state to inflict upon its own population.

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Speaker 3: It's an unarmed population, it has to be said. But

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Speaker 3: you know what the consequence of this, people are arming.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's a natural CONTI it. If you're going

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Speaker 3: to find that, you're going to be vunerable and this

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Speaker 3: sort of thing. People are finding guns and they're beginning

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Speaker 3: to arm themselves. And one of the anxieties that people

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Speaker 3: had is the level of eight between these two groups

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Speaker 3: in society is probably unbridgable. I mean, it's become quite

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Speaker 3: quite disastrous. And he was very much lamenting just how

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Speaker 3: bad everything had become. I mean, he you know, it's

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Speaker 3: quite tragic to hear actually some of the more reflective

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Speaker 3: comments going on about what's happened.

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Speaker 2: We're speaking to Professa Ali Ansari and historian in Iranian history.

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Speaker 2: Thanks again for your time.

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Speaker 4: For if the people overthrow the regime or at a

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Speaker 4: catastrophically fails, what as likely to replace it?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean at the moment, so one of one

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Speaker 3: of the things that we would we were considering was

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Speaker 3: the fact that you know, would their people be people

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Speaker 3: within the system we would come in to sort of

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Speaker 3: like maybe try and save it, you know, maybe more

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Speaker 3: moderate figures. Now what's happened with the last week is

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Speaker 3: they've arrested all these people. I mean they've basically already

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Speaker 3: said that, you know, these people plan to launch a coup.

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Speaker 3: You know. Now, whether they were or not, who knows,

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Speaker 3: but the boind is clearly they're already worried about that.

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Speaker 3: So you know, the most likely thing, unfortunately, in the

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Speaker 3: short term, is that it's going to get much much messier.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they haven't really given themselves options for a

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Speaker 3: sort of a natural replacement to come in. They think

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Speaker 3: they can sustain themselves purely through the use of violence.

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Speaker 3: Some of them are basically angling that, you know, there

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Speaker 3: will be a war. Actually, I mean some of them

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Speaker 3: are quite excited by this fact that they might be

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Speaker 3: a war with the United States. I mean, again, it

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Speaker 3: beggars belief in my mind that they don't really have

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Speaker 3: a compension of what this means. And again, you know,

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Speaker 3: those people who are more aware of what this means

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Speaker 3: are extremely worried. I mean, they're extremely worried about the consequences,

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Speaker 3: for instance, of a Trump attack an American attack. So

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Speaker 3: I think in the short term, I think we have

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Speaker 3: to prepare ourselves in the international community. And I say

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Speaker 3: this also to you know, Arab colleagues, the Turks and others,

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Speaker 3: all of whom are desperately anxious to avoid any instability

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Speaker 3: in the region. I think instability is coming, whether we

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Speaker 3: like it or not, and I think we need to

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Speaker 3: prepare for it. And it's either going to happen quickly

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Speaker 3: or it's going to happen slowly. But the system in

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Speaker 3: Iran at the moment is I think, sort of crumbling

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Speaker 3: from within. Either the Americans will accelerate that process or

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Speaker 3: it will happen a little bit more slowly. But you know,

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Speaker 3: to borrow from that heming Away phrase, you know, how

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Speaker 3: did you go bankrupt slowly and then very quickly? I

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Speaker 3: think we're really on the precipice now in Iran. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's not a it's not unlikely. You know that the

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Speaker 3: currency will will face it, so you know, we'll have

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Speaker 3: a run on the currency and you know inflation will

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Speaker 3: go through the roof. And actually what you'll find is

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Speaker 3: the economy is imploding. An of course, all the things

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Speaker 3: that the regional neighbors are very anxious about you know,

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Speaker 3: refugees and refuge flows, whatever is going to happen. I mean,

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Speaker 3: people are going to start fleeing out. So it's it's,

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Speaker 3: you know, the short term prognosis is not good. But

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Speaker 3: I do think people in the region and abroad need

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Speaker 3: to prepare a little bit better, even psychologically. I have

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Speaker 3: to say for what might happen, because I have to say,

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Speaker 3: at the moment, you know, when you look across the

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Speaker 3: foreign ministries of the world, there's a sort of a

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Speaker 3: head in the sand moment. You know, we were trying

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Speaker 3: to pretend that actually it all be fine. It's it's

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Speaker 3: it's simply not going to be like that. And I

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Speaker 3: don't know how how else to say it, really, I mean,

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Speaker 3: unless the regime has some sort of epiphany and suddenly

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Speaker 3: decides that actually, you know, we've done the last forty

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Speaker 3: seven years have been a fiasco and we need to

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Speaker 3: just be normal, Which is why most people say the

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Speaker 3: rational decision would be come to an agreement with the

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Speaker 3: United States, come to an agree with you know. But

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Speaker 3: that's not the sort of response you're getting from within

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Speaker 3: Iran at the moment, not among that particular group that are,

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Speaker 3: you know, holding the guns and holding the country to

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Speaker 3: ransom effectively.

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Speaker 4: Do you have a theory on why the West seems

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Speaker 4: to be ignoring the situation. There are very few matches

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Speaker 4: and support, very few celebrity outcries and such.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a very natural and somewhat depressing aspect of

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Speaker 3: you know, modern attention spans and journalism and others. I mean,

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Speaker 3: we tend to focus on particular things at particular times.

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Speaker 3: It's a bit like the lighthouse effect. You know, you

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Speaker 3: sort of look at it, and then you know, something

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Speaker 3: will happen in around and obviously everyone will rush back

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Speaker 3: and have a look at it again. But I think

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Speaker 3: those who are keeping an eye on things know that

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Speaker 3: the situation is not settled. But you're quite right that

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Speaker 3: there is a problem. I think in the West that

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Speaker 3: we get we bore very easily. You know, we get

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Speaker 3: bored very easily. Our attention spans are much more limited.

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Speaker 3: But there's also a lot of unfortunately these days are

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Speaker 3: sort of a social media that tends to want to

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Speaker 3: sort of, you know, from either side, that tends to

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Speaker 3: want to effectively whitewash what's gone on. So there are

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Speaker 3: some people arguing that everything's fine. And I think then

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Speaker 3: while I would hesitate to say that, you know, the

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Speaker 3: foreign ministries around the world are not paying it, I

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Speaker 3: mean they clearly are paying attention to it. I think

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Speaker 3: there is certainly some element, some element of people want

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Speaker 3: you know, almost wanting it not to happen, you know,

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Speaker 3: they would prefer it didn't have But now, interestingly, I

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Speaker 3: don't think that's in the West. I think in Western

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Speaker 3: ministries there's a sort of realization that something is happening,

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Speaker 3: but at the moment that's all been transferred into the

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Speaker 3: regional governments who just don't want anything to happen, really

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Speaker 3: desperately bearing their heads in the sand. But you know,

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Speaker 3: there is this issue, and it's an unfortunate thing really,

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Speaker 3: and it happens a lot where you know, we even

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Speaker 3: when these protests happened on it was December the twenty eighth.

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Speaker 3: Of course, in the middle of Christmas. People weren't particularly

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Speaker 3: interested people on holiday. Suddenly in the first week of

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Speaker 3: January people pick up and say, maybe we should pay

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Speaker 3: more attention to this. By the first week of January

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Speaker 3: it becomes horrendous. People start to panic, and then of

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Speaker 3: course it dies down again and you get this sort

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Speaker 3: of sense of people breathing a sigh relief and we

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Speaker 3: can continue with lives of normal, as I say, and

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Speaker 3: I think people are aware of that. You know, we

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Speaker 3: can't do that really anymore. I mean, I think we

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Speaker 3: have to be much much more aware that things are

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Speaker 3: a good deal more fragile and you know, things could

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Speaker 3: trigger any moment. Again. I mean, this is this is

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Speaker 3: the issue with the word we get from contacts in

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Speaker 3: Iran is that people are bruised, people are digesting, people

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Speaker 3: are traumatized, but people are also angry and they're not

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Speaker 3: you know that they're they're down, but they're not out.

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Speaker 3: It is the way that it's coming across. So I

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Speaker 3: think we need to be prepared a little bit better.

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Speaker 3: If you next for the next for the next.

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Speaker 2: Round, yes, professora, and sorry, this has been a fascinating discussion.

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Speaker 2: Really appreciate your insight and it's been great to chip

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Speaker 2: with you and hopefully we'll catch up again.

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Speaker 3: So excellent, Yeah, happy to do so.

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Speaker 1: For more from News Talks, it'd be listen live on

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Speaker 1: air or online and keep our shows with you wherever

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