1 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: Cura and welcome to Shared Lunch, brought to you by Chase's. 2 00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: My name is Helen Madison, and today we talk about 3 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: the US markets. But don't worry, this episode is not 4 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: all about the election. In particular, we'll discuss the Vanguard 5 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: S and P five hundred ETF index from near Philadelphia. 6 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: I'm joined by David Sharp, who is a senior ETF 7 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: capital market specialist at Vanguard, Vanguard being one of the 8 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: largest and probably most well known fund managers in the world. 9 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: But before we get started, here's some important information. 10 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 2: Investing involves the risk you might lose the money you 11 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 2: start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. 12 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 2: We also recommend reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. 13 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 2: Everything you're about to see and here is current at 14 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: the time of recording. 15 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 1: So good evening, David, thanks for being with us. It's 16 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: you're just out of Philadelphia, is that right. 17 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, Allen, Thanks for having me. Yeah, we 18 00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 3: are just west of Philadelphia, about forty five minuts. It's 19 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 3: worse in Pennsylvania in terms of elections. 20 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: Typically, when I ask commentators about whether or not they 21 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: move markets, they pretty much say, look, they've factored it 22 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: all in. But I do wonder if this one is 23 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: a bit different because we've had a few kind of 24 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: things to think about. For example, I know, Robin Hood, 25 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: the US trading platform in the US has given the 26 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,320 Speaker 1: opportunity for people to buy event derivatives where you can 27 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: bet each way on which who will win. You've also 28 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: had Donald Trump's social media platform go sky high in 29 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: terms of its value. And also have seen that with 30 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 1: the markets, crypto and some of the small cap sort 31 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 1: of stocks have supposedly done well because we have this 32 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 1: election fever. But I was keen to get your perspective 33 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:50,559 Speaker 1: working in the capital markets in the US, to see 34 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: whether or not you've noticed anything different. 35 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I would say again, I mean, it 36 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 3: has been a noisy election season. But what we look 37 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 3: out through our investment strategy research group, where we look 38 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 3: at just researching over you know, time period as h 39 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 3: as different administrations are in in office, we find that 40 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 3: presidential elections can be, although hugely consequential on the direction 41 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,399 Speaker 3: of public policies, you know, they often aren't a good 42 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 3: guide for you know, dictating your investment decisions. You know, certainly, 43 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 3: as you mentioned, there is you know sometimes particular sectors 44 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 3: that could outperform others. We did see uh, you know, 45 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 3: solar energy trading at a higher amount today in the 46 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 3: US market on Monday. That could be an indication that 47 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 3: maybe the market is seeing, you know, a potential for 48 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 3: for Harris victory. But last week we saw you know, 49 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 3: Bitcoin hitting new highs, which were you know, I think 50 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 3: generated somewhat by some of what the Trump administration has 51 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 3: said that they potential Trump administration has said that they 52 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 3: would look to do in that space. So it's really 53 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 3: going back and forth. It is, you know, a tight market, 54 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 3: and when we look back to research dating back to 55 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 3: all the way back to eighteen sixty, we really find 56 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 3: no statistical relationship between the performance of a sixty forty 57 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 3: portfolio in presidential election or non election years. So, you 58 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 3: know what we've really encouraged clients over the last couple 59 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 3: of weeks as we build up to this election is 60 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 3: to really just try to tune out some of that noise, 61 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,640 Speaker 3: really stick to your long term investment plan, and not 62 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:24,799 Speaker 3: make big changes based on policy proposals or election results 63 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,399 Speaker 3: because we just don't know. What we know for sure 64 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 3: is the market will go up, and the market will 65 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 3: go down. But outside of that, you know, all the 66 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 3: rest is purely speculation. 67 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: So that portfolio that you're talking about over that long 68 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: period from eighteen sixty I think to about twenty twenty two, 69 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: because I did read that article put out by Vanguard, 70 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: was that a portfolio with it sixty percent shares forty 71 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: percent bonds? Was that right? 72 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 3: That's right? Yep, correct? 73 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: Okay, So is that more typical for now though? Something 74 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 1: like that? Was it sort of more traditionally what people 75 00:03:58,280 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: would have had as a portfolio. 76 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 3: So we still think that the sixty forty portfolio has 77 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 3: has value for the right investor. You know, certainly it 78 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 3: has to be you know, kind of related to what 79 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 3: your investment needs are, what your risk tolerance is, where 80 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 3: you are in your investment journey. For younger folks that 81 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 3: are just getting started in their retirement plan, then forty 82 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 3: percent bond allocation would certainly be too much in our viewpoint. 83 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 3: But the sixty forty ends up being kind of a 84 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:31,279 Speaker 3: good dictation for where institutions can find the right balance, 85 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 3: even more so than retail And it just tends to be, 86 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 3: you know, a portfolio that gives you a little bit 87 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 3: more neutral risk relative to you know, maybe somewhat muted 88 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 3: performance by having that bond allocation we've seen in most 89 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 3: year sixty forty ends up being a pretty productive portfolio 90 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 3: to have. There are some years that that is off. 91 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 3: Twenty twenty two, with the raising rate environment, we did 92 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 3: see stocks be depressed in value and bonds get depressed 93 00:04:59,880 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 3: in value the same year, which is rare. Usually see 94 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:07,359 Speaker 3: those correlated in opposite directions. So for that to occur 95 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two was kind of more anomalists that 96 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,679 Speaker 3: it was, you know, what we'd expect for the future, 97 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 3: and it really just was the speed of the rates 98 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 3: that were taking place that affected both sides of the 99 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 3: investment landscape. 100 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: So, David, let's roll back to what Van Guard does. 101 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 1: I think it was established back in nineteen seventy five, 102 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: so nearly fifty years. You're sort of known as a 103 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: passive index manager, low cost being a big part of that. 104 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 1: Give us some idea of what you're doing today in 105 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 1: and has that changed over that period. 106 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, they were exactly right. We're found in nineteen seventy five. 107 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 3: So we're coming up on our fifty year anniversary next May, 108 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 3: which we're looking forward to. We actually just passed in 109 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 3: September our fifty years of incorporation, so our official incorporation 110 00:05:56,480 --> 00:06:00,279 Speaker 3: before we launched that following May. But you know, the 111 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 3: way that you know, we often will describe ourselves is 112 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 3: just you know, one of the world's you know, largest 113 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 3: and hopefully most respected investment management companies. You know, we 114 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 3: offered a lot of different investments, advice, retirement services, insights 115 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:19,039 Speaker 3: to individuals, institutions and financial professionals through thought leadership, through 116 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 3: other research avenues, and we we really are a worldwide firm. 117 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 3: Obviously we're known for our US presence, but we do 118 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 3: manage over ten trillion dollars ten trillion US dollars assets 119 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 3: under management, and we have more than fifty million clients, 120 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 3: and it's really all around the world. Even our ETF specifically, 121 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 3: we have domiciled in the US, in Canada, in Mexico, 122 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 3: in Europe and Australia. So even in our ETF realm specifically, 123 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 3: we are you know, broadly diversified. And I think, as 124 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 3: you mentioned, we are known to be an index shop. 125 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 3: That is what we're most famous for, launching the first 126 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 3: retail UH investment fund that follow on an index, which 127 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 3: we're certainly going to talk more about in the next 128 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 3: you know, half hour to an hour year. But you 129 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 3: know what I think is surprising to a lot of 130 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 3: folks is we still we have one point eight trillion 131 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 3: dollars in active management as well. We do see ourselves 132 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 3: as having an active prowess, and we do subadvise a 133 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 3: lot of our equity to active managers, but we do 134 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 3: in house fixed income active management, and we are really 135 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 3: proud of that active franchise that we have within fixed 136 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 3: income because it is, you know, a bit unique, and 137 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 3: that that unique investor owned structure that we have where 138 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 3: our clients own our funds and the funds own the 139 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 3: company allow us to really operate at cost and keep 140 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 3: our costs very low. In our ETF lineup in the US, 141 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 3: no product has an expensory issue over twenty two basis points, 142 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 3: and you know they're as low as for our five 143 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 3: hundred index fund VOO or we affectionately call VOO on 144 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 3: the desk, we are down to just three basis points 145 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 3: for that product. 146 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: Let's peg what the vote is for a stat because 147 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: if we're tracking that index and it being I think 148 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: one of your most famous what's it all about? 149 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 3: It's a great question and you know, I think when 150 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 3: we look at the five hundred index that we have 151 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 3: in our ETF FOO or VU as I mentioned earlier, 152 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 3: it really dates back to August thirty first in nineteen 153 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 3: seventy six in the mutual fund wrapper or that open 154 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 3: ended wrapper. So that ETF really is a share class 155 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 3: of that portfolio that is almost fifty years old now 156 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 3: that tracks the S and P five hundred index and 157 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 3: buys all the five hundred companies within the S and 158 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 3: P five hundred at the weights within the index. So 159 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 3: that fund from nineteen seventy six all the way to 160 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 3: twenty ten was just a open ended fund and index 161 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 3: fund mutual fund that you couldn't buy on exchange. On 162 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 3: September seventh of twenty ten, we launched a share class 163 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 3: of that five hundred index and that was our ETF. 164 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 3: So that is a unique style that we have at Vanguard. 165 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: That is a patented approach that we had with our 166 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 3: first ETF we launched our Total stock market ETF in 167 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:15,559 Speaker 3: two thousand and one that we actually had patented and 168 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 3: no one else could do this multi share class strategy 169 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 3: in ETFs until our patent expired last May, and it 170 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 3: still is awaiting other approvals. So what the great advantage 171 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 3: that that actually provides us to have an ETF share 172 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 3: class is that we got instant scale in that product. 173 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 3: The economies of scale that allows us to keep our 174 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 3: costs very low, and it allows us to keep our 175 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 3: tracking are very low as well. Because the fund is 176 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 3: so large across all share classes, over a trillion dollars 177 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 3: in this fund in total assets, that the ETF was 178 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 3: able to basically get that history of getting exposure there 179 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:56,559 Speaker 3: in that fund at a really cheap cost with low tracking, 180 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 3: right out of the gate in twenty ten. So what 181 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 3: we've seen that time period since that launch now about 182 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 3: fourteen years ago, is just incredible growth on the product, 183 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 3: especially over the last few years the cash flows that 184 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 3: have entered that product as the megacap and large cap 185 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 3: companies have performed so well. In the US, we've seen 186 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 3: Voo actually lead flows this year with close to almost 187 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 3: eighty six billion dollars in flows so far this year, 188 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 3: which is put us up as the close to the 189 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 3: second largest ETF in the world, now only behind SPY 190 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 3: and you know we are you know, it's certainly not 191 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 3: focused on flows, but we're proud to see that adoption 192 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 3: of our products really, you know, showing a testament to 193 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 3: that low cost that we try to create within that product. 194 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 1: One thing must be said though about any market, but 195 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 1: particularly the US markets in recent times, is the volatility. 196 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: There's there's a fear bit. It seems to happen pretty 197 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: much all the time. So I suppose from Vesta's thinking 198 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 1: about the vou if you like, they would really have 199 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: to be able to stomach volatility as it were. 200 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean certainly, you know, as as the S 201 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 3: and P goes, this product will go. So you know, 202 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 3: there's certainly been you know, some level of volatility in 203 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 3: the market. You know that has ramped up a little 204 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,320 Speaker 3: bit as we go into this election cycle that we 205 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 3: spoke about earlier. You know, the the good news is 206 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 3: again though it even though it's just five hundred companies 207 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 3: of around thirty seven hundred public companies in the US, 208 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 3: it is the five hundred largest, and you know, there 209 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 3: is some level stability that does come with that, I 210 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 3: believe relative to some of the lower market capitalizations that 211 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 3: naturally have a little bit higher volatility profile, It's still 212 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 3: something that exists. It is still the stock market. The 213 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 3: stock market still will go up and go down and 214 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 3: the five hundred index no different. So there is absolutely 215 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 3: that you know, potential of volatility in the market and 216 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 3: especially during times of you know of stress in the markets, 217 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 3: which hopefully we don't see in the near term. 218 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 1: What it's the wasting at the moment for the vo 219 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 1: around about for the tech stocks as it used to 220 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 1: be almost up to a shood with things like the 221 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 1: Magnificent seven. So we're talking like Alphabet Tesla, Microsoft and 222 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 1: the like. 223 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, it is. The portfolio is about thirty one point 224 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 3: seven percent technology at this point, and it is driven 225 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 3: by those mag seven. When you look at the Mag 226 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 3: seven alone, they make up you know, a very large 227 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 3: percentage of the portfolio, about twenty eight percent of the 228 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 3: S and P five hundred is actually in those Mag seven. 229 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:39,959 Speaker 3: That's how strong their performance has been over the last 230 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 3: you know, close to two years now, driven heavily by 231 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 3: you know, DA Video as the leader there as that's 232 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 3: come up that that that board. So you know, when 233 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 3: we look at it, the second largest you know holding 234 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 3: there is still financials, but it's all the way to 235 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 3: twelve point nine percent. So you know, one argument that 236 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 3: could be mean to your point is that although it's 237 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 3: diversified across all the major sectors. It is heavily weighted 238 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 3: to technology at this time. 239 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 1: I mean in some of the other big sectors would 240 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 1: be banking, and is healthcare perhaps another I'm just trying 241 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 1: to think, Yes, it has diversified as five hundred companies, 242 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 1: but actually there's all sorts of good and bad in there. 243 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:23,719 Speaker 1: Is there in terms of depending on your value when 244 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:25,199 Speaker 1: when you're investing. 245 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, certainly, you know, it's broadly the five 246 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 3: hundred you know, largest market cap companies in the in 247 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 3: the US. Sometimes there is you know, naturally some additions 248 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 3: and deletions around the the the bottom of that, but 249 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 3: you know, for the most part it is that so 250 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 3: you do get you know, over seventy nine percent of 251 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 3: the portfolio has a market cap that's greater than you know, 252 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 3: seventy two you know, billions, So you know, you're you're 253 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 3: there's some really large companies in that portfolio. But the 254 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 3: diversification does change across sectors as certain sentiment comes into 255 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 3: the market. It at times, you know, we look at 256 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 3: last year and energy was actually one of the leading 257 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,319 Speaker 3: sectors last year, but it still makes up only about 258 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,839 Speaker 3: three point three percent of the portfolio, but it actually 259 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 3: had a really good year last year, close through a 260 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 3: thirty five percent return. So you really have when you 261 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 3: map it out over time that what sector bubbles up 262 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 3: to the top tends to rotate at some level of frequency. 263 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 3: It's just been a strong couple of years for technology. Frankly, 264 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 3: one thing. 265 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: I wandered with Vanguard earlier in the year, you said 266 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: you wouldn't be doing cryptocurrencies. I think that was when 267 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: the Securities Exchange Commission approved bitcoin as ETFs. There was 268 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: a lot of interest in that, and you know, we've 269 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: seen markets sort of go up even with this election fever. 270 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 1: As I said before, is that still something that you 271 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: are not going to be going into or you're thinking 272 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: more about it as perhaps it becomes more if you 273 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: like mainstream. 274 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say, you know, wouldn't speculate too much on, 275 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 3: you know, if the future would change our view, just 276 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 3: because changing market conditions can certainly, you know, change our position. 277 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 3: But at the current time it still stays stable in 278 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 3: the fact that we don't plan to launch a bitcoin ETF, 279 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 3: and it's really just related directly to our viewpoint on 280 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 3: the importance of intrinsic value in a security. And and 281 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 3: our fear that that might be you know, a tougher 282 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 3: to determine within bitcoin or cryptocurrencies relative to high quality 283 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 3: stocks or you know, or the bond market, you know, 284 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 3: quality within the bond market. So that's one of the 285 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 3: challenges when we look at that asset class. The other 286 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 3: one is just the volatility that is naturally inherent there 287 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 3: is much greater We have a retail focused client base 288 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 3: that we want to make sure is thoughtful for long 289 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 3: term investing and is you know, considering you know, where 290 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 3: their their goals are for the long term is paramount 291 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 3: to us, and we just you know, do have some 292 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 3: fear that the volatility inherent in that product could send 293 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 3: some of our clients kind of off of that trail. 294 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 3: So we are a little bit tepid and you know, 295 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 3: relative to sell of our issuer partners to bring a 296 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 3: product to market for those reasons. But I am not 297 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 3: in the case to say, you know, I would I 298 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 3: would definitely say never, say never, but you know, it 299 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 3: is something that isn't high on our list at the 300 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 3: current time. 301 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: A lot of Cheesy's investors tend to hold their et ifs, 302 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 1: but there is a number two who like to buy 303 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: and sell. Have you got any kind of sort of 304 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: tips I suppose you'd say for thinking about timing with 305 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: et ifs, because obviously they're quite different to manage fund 306 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: as such. 307 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say, I mean, we are, you know, 308 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 3: certainly believe the buy and hold strategy is really important 309 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 3: because any sales and subsequent buys. Besides the difficulty of 310 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 3: actually market timing, which we've proven, you know, over time, 311 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 3: it's just if you do try to market time that 312 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 3: the challenge to do that is great. You know. What 313 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 3: we tend to see is, you know, low cost long 314 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,919 Speaker 3: term investing usually will have a better payoff than then 315 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 3: more frequent changes in different market conditions. The other part 316 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 3: of that is just the cost that you incur the 317 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 3: more you rebalance, the more you have to pay that 318 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 3: spread to be able to buy and sell the security 319 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 3: that will distract from some of your returns and make 320 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 3: some of those returns harder to accomplish the you know, 321 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 3: the same way you would in a buy and hold. 322 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:33,479 Speaker 3: So we really you know, preach the idea of having large, 323 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 3: diversified portfolios that give you exposure to many parts in 324 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 3: the market and then holding on to those for a 325 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 3: longer period of time and and you know, be thoughtful 326 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 3: of costs. That's thoughtful of cost when it relates to expense. 327 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,920 Speaker 3: Ratios is very explicit how much you pay. Our founder 328 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 3: has a great quote, Jack Bogol that says, in investing, 329 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 3: you get exactly what you don't pay for. So you know, 330 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 3: that is, you know, really at the heart of our 331 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 3: strategy to give you. If you have one hundred basis 332 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 3: points of return in the s and P. Five hundred, 333 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,400 Speaker 3: if we only charge you three basis points, you keep 334 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 3: ninety seven basis points of that and that compounds over time. 335 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 3: We think that's really important for clients to achieve their 336 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 3: investment success over the long run. 337 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:19,880 Speaker 1: What about in terms of sort of assessing your portfolio, 338 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 1: I mean, yes, to hold seit and forget if you like, 339 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 1: over a period of time. I mean, how often would 340 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 1: you suggest people need to have a look about maybe rebalancing. 341 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, rebalancing is still important for sure. You know what 342 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 3: is what your target allocation is, and determining that target 343 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 3: allocation up front allows you to ensure that you're rebalancing 344 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 3: back to that target allocation. So we do say that, 345 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 3: you know, quarterly is a good opportunity to kind of 346 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 3: take a look and see how much your how far 347 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 3: away you are from your target allocation. If it's only 348 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 3: a percentage or two, that could quickly go back the 349 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 3: other way. What we really like to see before you 350 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 3: would spend the potential transaction costs to rebalance that would 351 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 3: be to start to stray about five percent away from 352 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:12,199 Speaker 3: your target allocation at that point, which if you're reviewing 353 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,120 Speaker 3: on a quarterly basis, allows you to tie that back 354 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 3: in and ensure that if equities have the run they 355 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 3: have this year relative to bonds being a bit flat, 356 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 3: and now your equity position is greater than your target allocation, 357 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 3: then it is a good idea to rebalance that back 358 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 3: and stay focused on that long term strategic allocation that 359 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:30,680 Speaker 3: you hope to have in your portfolio. 360 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 1: One of the criticisms often leveled at the US markets 361 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: is that they're topping out. They're just keeping on going, 362 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden there's going to be a 363 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: crash and people are going to burn as a result. 364 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: I mean, what do you sort of say to investors 365 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:47,120 Speaker 1: in terms of keeping that longer term view, knowing that markets, 366 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 1: as you said before, go up and go down. 367 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's important to just think of that long term 368 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 3: time horizon. If we look at twenty twenty two, the 369 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,399 Speaker 3: sixty to forty portfolio we mentioned earlier had one of 370 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 3: its worst years and since nineteen thirties because both stocks 371 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 3: and bonds were down together, which is rare. So you know, 372 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 3: that was a clear example of a time where people 373 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 3: were feeling a little bit of the pain of the 374 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:14,159 Speaker 3: market and having that drawl down. But those that stayed 375 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 3: in it, that return we've seen since twenty twenty two 376 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,639 Speaker 3: is almost forty five percent in the S and P 377 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,400 Speaker 3: five hundred, and it is sixty to forty portfolio would 378 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,679 Speaker 3: be muted a bit to that, but it's still you know, 379 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 3: that growth that you've had in that time period by 380 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,920 Speaker 3: just staying the course and staying focused on your long 381 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,200 Speaker 3: term plan and not reacting to short term market events 382 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 3: even if they aren't you know, it's not easy to 383 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 3: see on your portfolio when the number goes down, but 384 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 3: it's really important, and we've showcased over time this. You 385 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 3: know what happens when you get out of the market 386 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 3: when the time is in stress and you miss that 387 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 3: you know, return to positive returns. What that does with 388 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 3: the long term investment because of the impact of compounding 389 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 3: is quite great, So we really try to reinforce to 390 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 3: tune out the noise that's in the market and really 391 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 3: just be focused on if your plan is twenty years 392 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 3: from now, your portfolio doesn't need a lot of change 393 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,679 Speaker 3: right now to be able to achieve the goals that 394 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 3: you have for your long term investment returns. 395 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,919 Speaker 1: What would you say to New Zealand investors who are 396 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: thinking for the first time to invest in the US market. 397 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: So might have played around a little bit with individual stocks, 398 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: but perhaps now they're thinking exchange traded funds is probably 399 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: an easier, cheaper, maybe safer way to go. 400 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think that's we do. You know, 401 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 3: stress the importance of diversification, and that is something that 402 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 3: ETF gives you. You can trade it like a stock 403 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 3: within the market, but it still gives you the broad 404 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 3: exposure of what the underlying portfolio is made up of, 405 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 3: and in this case the five hundred largest companies in 406 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,160 Speaker 3: the US. So that diversification that you get over choosing 407 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 3: one single stock really is an important risk mitigation tool. 408 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 3: When we look at securities over time, the number one 409 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 3: secure already in the S and P five hundred at 410 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,359 Speaker 3: you know, in two thousand and five, in nineteen ninety 411 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 3: five and nineteen eighty five. It's different every time you look, 412 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 3: because you know markets are going to you know, there's 413 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 3: just different situations for different securities that are going to 414 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 3: increase their value or decrease. So having that broad exposure 415 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 3: instead of maybe even looking at you know, everybody looks 416 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 3: at We just take na Vidia as an example because 417 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 3: of the great ride that it's had. Everybody wants to 418 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,879 Speaker 3: have the number one stock in the market, but the 419 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 3: video won't always be the number one stock in the market. 420 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 3: And how are you diversified when there is a drawl 421 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 3: down there if the valuation might get too high, the 422 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 3: rest of the portfolio helps to kind of pick that up. 423 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 3: So we really just stress that diversification. We think this 424 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 3: gives a great opportunity to get that and a wrapper 425 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 3: that again is really low cost and easy to access. 426 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 1: Diabet there's a phrase online where people say voo and chill. 427 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: Just wondering what your take on that is. 428 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a funny phrase that you know, I 429 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 3: think we are starting to see following the Alexicond a 430 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 3: little bit more and it's really to me it resonates 431 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 3: a lot of what I just mentioned. It's you know, 432 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,439 Speaker 3: you don't have to get complicated in the market. You 433 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 3: don't have to be chasing returns or looking for opportunities 434 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 3: to maybe find the next hot product. Just buy voo, 435 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,199 Speaker 3: buy vu and and chill, just you know, kind of 436 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 3: sit on that, continue to invest it as you have 437 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 3: new monies go into it. And because what we see 438 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 3: is over the course of you know, long dated period, 439 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 3: say fifty years as the longest, only about two percent 440 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 3: of active managers can beat the index. So instead of 441 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 3: chasing some of those returns from that active management or 442 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 3: some of those strategies, buying the index, that whole index 443 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,399 Speaker 3: and just you know, sitting it out and just waiting 444 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 3: for the long term or vo and chill, as as 445 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 3: ken Be said, is really a you know, we think 446 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,640 Speaker 3: a really great strategy to just get those long term 447 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 3: investment returns that we talked about. 448 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 1: Thanks for your in science today, David, and thanks to 449 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: everyone else for joining in too. You can watch Sheared 450 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 1: Lunch on YouTube or follow us on your favorite podcast app. 451 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 1: Leave us a rating and a comment about what you'd 452 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 1: like to hear next. Ma Tewa