1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,680 Speaker 1: Treaty Principles bill that gets debated today, then if it 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,280 Speaker 1: goes to the committee, that will hear a lot of 3 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: fearmongering and winging about how it's the end of the world. 4 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: And after that it will come back to Parliament, a 5 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 1: vote will be had, it won't get the numbers, it'll 6 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: be dead. This is unusual. Governments normally put bills in 7 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: they know are going to pass. And so here is 8 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: why it ties into Trump's victory last week. Trump won 9 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: because he is the repository for grievance. If you don't 10 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 1: like the left, you vote for what's not the left, 11 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: because you've only got a choice of two. Under MMP, 12 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: you got more choices. We've taken a lot of time 13 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: to work that out, but as MMP matures, we are 14 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: reaching a place where more parties will establish themselves as 15 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: ongoing contributors to the system, as opposed to being seen 16 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: as fringe and on the verge of survival. Especially helpful 17 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: will be this government if it performs well as a group, 18 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 1: gets re elected and possibly goes for a third term, 19 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: it will show three parties can coalesce agree to disagree 20 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: while remaining separate and independent. The Greens have already arrived 21 00:00:58,160 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: at this place. Of course, they are a permanent, fixed 22 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 1: your on the landscape. They don't dabble with the five 23 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: percent margins anymore. The point here is, as a result, 24 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: the big parties will shed support. The days of national 25 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: being forty five ish percent that gone because parties like 26 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: ACT in New Zealand first look to head towards ten 27 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: percent of not more. The Treaty Bill might well be 28 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: act's ride to permanence, the same way that Trump hoovered 29 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: up Blacks and Hispanics who are sick of being treated 30 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 1: like a block and not individuals. ACT could hoover up 31 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: New Zealanders sick of raced based policy if NATS the 32 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: NATS don't or won't deal with it, ACT can In 33 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 1: an MMP environment, Trump would not have stood a chance, 34 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: of course, but their system is less sophisticated than ours. 35 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 1: Choice is good. It gets over represented though in jurisdictions 36 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: where the threshold is too low because you end up 37 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: with single issue nutters. But at about five percent it 38 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: looks like we've picked it right. You can be small 39 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: without being too fringe. Hopefully, ACT in New Zealand first 40 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: break the MMP who do where small parties vanish in 41 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: government because there are enough specific issues and enough electoral 42 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: confidence four parties to state claims and bills support. Big 43 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: parties no longer have to be everything to everyone. If 44 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: this is an emerging trend, MMP proper will have arrived 45 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: and we will be all the better for it. For 46 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: more from The mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to News 47 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: Talks at B from six am weekdays, or follow the 48 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: podcast on iHeartRadio