1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to a shares these podcast, So what is 2 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:09,880 Speaker 1: the recommendations for investors? Do you think to see you? Then, 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: I think bonds actually still look good, so yields, and 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: you've got to think about the risks that they're hedging 5 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: you for. If you look back to twenty twenty two, 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:24,280 Speaker 1: everyone says our bonds didn't work. My equities went down, 7 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: my bonds went down. It was just horrible. There's no diversification. 8 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: Bonds don't ensure you for an inflation shock. They ensure 9 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 1: you for a growth shock. And right now, the consensus 10 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: view is that everything goes along really, really well, and 11 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: that's why bond yields are higher than they are. Us 12 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: growth will be pretty robust, but the world is a 13 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 1: mysterious place where things like COVID nineteen happen, and then 14 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: you need your bonds to ensure your portfolio. You are 15 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: getting paid to be there at the moment. The one 16 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:02,639 Speaker 1: caveat i'd really give is that the additional return you're 17 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: getting for buying a corporate bond or a corporate bond 18 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: fund is really really low at the moment. So i'd 19 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: favor I do favor in portfolio is having more of 20 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: a sovereign bent than a corporate bent, because that's rarely 21 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: going to help you with your downside protection. So yeah, 22 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 1: I think they look good, as I said, New Zealand, 23 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: but more relatively attractive compared to global shares. And that's 24 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: largely because of just how wide the breadth of expensiveness goes, 25 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: particularly in the US, to a lesser extent globally as well. 26 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 2: You know, when you talk about downside protection, I think 27 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 2: it's worth thinking hard about that because the one thing 28 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 2: that I think has changed from in the last say, 29 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 2: three or four years compared to almost the whole of 30 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 2: the rest of my career is we've been through a 31 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 2: period of globalization, trade liberalization, internationally accepted rules. We're now 32 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 2: into where economy kind of trumped politics. We're into an 33 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 2: era now where politics trump's the economy and trade. So 34 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 2: there is a lot of uncertainty and baked into that. 35 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 2: It can just be Trump saying something different every day, 36 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,079 Speaker 2: or it can be the Chinese economy tanking so badly 37 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 2: that they need to create a distraction and decide to 38 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 2: invade Taiwan. You know, all sorts of things can happen 39 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 2: when politicians rather than markets are driving things which you 40 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,679 Speaker 2: don't see coming. So I do think that while there's 41 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 2: a lot of upside there in the US story, and 42 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,359 Speaker 2: I really take your point about new Ually it may 43 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 2: not look very exciting, but if it's cheap enough, it's 44 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:50,799 Speaker 2: always exciting. I would be taking a lot of cognizance 45 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 2: of the potential for something to come created by our 46 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 2: fellow man and women, but mainly man, which will up 47 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 2: end the apple cart, and which has nothing to do 48 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 2: with actual economic conditions and has everything to do with geopolitics. 49 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: Investing involves a risk you might lose the money you 50 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. 51 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 1: We also recommend b reading product disclosure documents before deciding 52 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 1: to invest. Everything you're about to see and hear is 53 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: current at the time of recording.