1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,480 Speaker 1: Brad Olson, Infametric's principal economist, is with us. 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 2: Hello, Brad, good evening. 3 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 1: We're moving house a lot at the moment, are we? 4 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 2: It seems that way. The latest census starter out from 5 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: STATSENZ does show that over time we've been seeing quite 6 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 2: a lot of moving. Around forty five percent of New 7 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 2: Zealanders moved addressed over the five years between twenty eighteen 8 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 2: and twenty twenty three, slightly higher than the last five 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 2: year period, so obviously quite a lot of shift. Two 10 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 2: big trends that came through in the numbers, though generally 11 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 2: a bit more of a shift south than we normally see, 12 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 2: particularly into the likes of Otago and Canterbury, but also 13 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 2: a real shift where previously everyone was flocking to the cities. 14 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 2: Now it's a little bit it's not an exodus, but 15 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 2: definitely a bit of a shift where people are trying 16 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 2: to find an option nearby to a city but not 17 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: in the middle of the congestion. People seeming to like 18 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 2: those sort of fringe areas outside the main urban centers 19 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 2: where they can get a better lifestyle offering probably a 20 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 2: slightly cheaper house price. Seems to be sort of a 21 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 2: bit of a sweet spot are. 22 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: We're moving more than we normally would. 23 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 2: We're moving ever so slightly more so. Back in over 24 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:10,199 Speaker 2: the five years to twenty eighteen, about forty four point 25 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 2: six percent of the population shifted address forty five point 26 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 2: two percent, so a little bit more over the five 27 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 2: years to twenty twenty three. Now, of course that's normal, 28 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,839 Speaker 2: like people move, it's just often you don't make huge, 29 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 2: huge moves. Seventy seven percent of New Zealanders who moved 30 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 2: within the last five years, they still stayed within the 31 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: same region, so pretty close to you know, wherever original 32 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 2: home base. Well, this so they're not sort of shifting massively. 33 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 2: Sixteen point six percent moved to a different region on 34 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: the same island. And that so again often people staying 35 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 2: a little bit closer to what they'd normally have. But 36 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 2: put it this way, I think what you're seeing and 37 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 2: what you've really had emerged since COVID has come through, 38 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 2: is that working from home is now much greater focus 39 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 2: for people, and that's opening up a lot of employment opportunities, 40 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 2: a lot of new housing opportunities, which means that the 41 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 2: old idea of go to the cities that's where all 42 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 2: the economic activity is isn't strictly true anymore. 43 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: Okay, Brad, can you please explain how the ratings valuations 44 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 1: work for people who think that their property having fallen 45 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: should lead to a ratings decrease. 46 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 2: Yes, and I can understand because normally, right, we haven't 47 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 2: gone through many periods in New Zealand's history where house 48 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 2: prices have gone down, certainly not by quite as much effectively, 49 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 2: though the council is using the rating valuations to help 50 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 2: split up the rates pie And so because there's an 51 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 2: average increase this year I think in Auckland of around 52 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 2: five point eight percent if you've had a so that's 53 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 2: what the average household would get. Now, we also know 54 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,119 Speaker 2: the average house has fallen in price by around about 55 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 2: nine percent over the period. So if you've had a 56 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 2: nine percent full, you're still going to pay five point 57 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,679 Speaker 2: eight percent more in rates. If you've had a larger 58 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 2: than nine percent fall, you'll probably have a slightly smaller 59 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 2: increase in rates. It'll go up, but maybe by just 60 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:03,399 Speaker 2: a coupleercentage points. If your house hasn't fallen quite as much, 61 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 2: if it's fallen by less than that nine percent, you're 62 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 2: going to pay probably more than a six percent increase 63 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,119 Speaker 2: in rates this year only because the cost of delivering 64 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 2: services has gone up. There's more people. Everything has become 65 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 2: a whole lot more expensive, both for households but also 66 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 2: for councils who've got to buy some of those services. 67 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 2: So the ratings, the cvs, they're not a good measure 68 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 2: of what your house is actually worth at any given time. 69 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 2: They're sort of a snapshot. We almost shouldn't publish them. 70 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:31,519 Speaker 2: You do wonder where a council should sort of say, 71 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 2: look every house and you know your house, Heather is 72 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 2: going to pay zero points zero zero one two percent 73 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 2: of the total rates bill and that's what you get. Yep. 74 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: Is it possible that people that some people may have 75 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 1: had a fall in their house value that is so 76 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: massive that they end up with the rates increase, a 77 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: decrease possibly number of cent falls. 78 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 2: Potentially, But it would also probably depend on the services 79 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 2: that they are getting from the council, where they are 80 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 2: in the city. I mean, one thing that we noted 81 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 2: from all council was that some of the apartments in 82 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 2: the central city have seen some pretty big decreases relative 83 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 2: to otherwise. But again in the city, they're using a 84 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 2: lot of the resources that come through that, you know, 85 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 2: all of the roads, all of the wastewater, stormwater, water 86 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 2: services and that. So it'd be a very unusual situation 87 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 2: that anyone's rates would outright go down. The biggest win 88 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 2: you can probably get is having a larger fall and 89 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 2: not too big of a rates increase this time around. 90 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, Brad, thank you as always appreciated. Brad Olson Informatrix 91 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: Principle Economists. 92 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 93 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 94 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.