1 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:05,560 Speaker 1: Peter Lewis Asia Business correspondent with that's hello, Peter, good evening. 2 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 2: How's China feeling about Marco Rubio? 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 3: Then, well, with some alarm because he hasn't in the 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 3: past been a great friend of China. He was the 5 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 3: guy who sponsored the bill to prevent the import of 6 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 3: goods which are made by China's ethnic Wiga minorities, which 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 3: Joe Biden later signed into law. And he was also 8 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 3: the cauth of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Acts, 9 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 3: which ultimately led to the US Treasury issuing sanctions on 10 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 3: many Hong Kong officials, including the current Chief Executive John 11 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 3: Lee and the Secretary for Security Chris Tang. So he 12 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 3: has formed here and when you look back at some 13 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 3: of his comments and he says the threat from China 14 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 3: is the one that's going to define this century. So 15 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:58,639 Speaker 3: it's a fairly hard line appointment, a very hawkish one. 16 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 3: And you have to combine that also with Trump's National 17 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 3: Security advisor Mike Wolls, who's also extremely outspoken about China. 18 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 3: He describes China as the greater threat to the United 19 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 3: States than any other nation. So this is a very hawkish, 20 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 3: fairly anti China pair. But a lot depends, i think, 21 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 3: because they're obviously not going to make the policy towards 22 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 3: China that's going to come from Trump himself, and a 23 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 3: lot depends upon which version of Trump turns up. Is 24 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 3: it going to be the one who's fairly transactional and 25 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:36,320 Speaker 3: wants to do a trade deal with China and all 26 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 3: of this is just a way of arm twisting them 27 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 3: to come to the table, Or is it going to 28 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 3: be the angry, vengeful Trump who's going to want revenge 29 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 3: on China because they relayed on that first trade deal 30 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 3: that they made in his first presidency. They didn't buy 31 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 3: anything like the two hundred billion dollars worth of goods 32 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 3: that they promised to do. They blame COVID for that, 33 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 3: and Trump also blames China and COVID for ending his 34 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 3: presidency after just one term. So it's very hard to 35 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 3: know what we're going to get. But the way the 36 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 3: fit stars are lining up at the moment, it doesn't 37 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 3: look great for China. And you have to combine that 38 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 3: with the fact that also Marco Ruba himself is sanctioned 39 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 3: by Beijing, so it means he can never actually visit 40 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 3: China as long as he's on that. 41 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 2: Sanctions list, would they take him off? 42 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 3: Well, remember this happened before when John Lee couldn't go 43 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 3: to San Francisco for the APEX summits and the US 44 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 3: refused to take him off the list. They were saying 45 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 3: this was the law. Where you can imagine China saying 46 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 3: the same thing now in retaliation. 47 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, fair enough, okay, And so I understand that 48 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: Beijing actually was prepared for Trump and they have got 49 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 1: a whole bunch of countermeasures. 50 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 2: What are these countermeasures, Well. 51 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:51,679 Speaker 3: They have, I mean, they've spent the last couple of 52 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 3: years sort of almost mirroring the laws that the US 53 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 3: is pot in place. So they've got their own now 54 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 3: anti foreign sanctions law so that it can counter measures 55 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 3: taken by other countries. It's also got its own version 56 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 3: of the entities list that the US has, so it 57 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 3: can put on it foreign companies that it deems to 58 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 3: have undermined its national interests. So it certainly is prepared 59 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 3: for this, and it could do some damage to the US. 60 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 3: A lot of people think that the boys in the 61 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 3: US is caught because it is the buyer ultimately of 62 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 3: Chinese goods, and the buyer tends to have the upper hand, 63 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 3: and that's certainly true, and they're just aren't enough goods 64 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 3: that China exports that buys from the US that it 65 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 3: could put its own sanctions on. But the thing is, 66 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 3: the US does also buy some things from China that 67 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 3: it absolutely needs, So for example, rare earth metals and 68 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 3: lydium that's absolutely crucial to modern technologies and semiconductors, and 69 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 3: really China controls the global supply chains of these, so 70 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 3: it could really go out and sort of weaponize its 71 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 3: dominance of these of these supply chains and refuse to 72 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 3: sell these wearers lithium that are needed for batteries and 73 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 3: solar panels and so on, and in turn caused damage 74 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 3: a fair bit of damage to the US. And it 75 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 3: has shown in the past it's prepared to do that. 76 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 3: It's put sanctions on various US companies. Skydio was the 77 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 3: most recent one, a big US drone maker, and banned 78 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 3: Chinese groups from providing that company with these critical components. 79 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 3: So it is prepared to go and do it. 80 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 2: Peter, tell me what's the feeling within China about how 81 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 2: Trump and his administration his guys would would how strongly 82 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 2: they would protect Taiwan. 83 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 3: Well, this is another area where we really don't know 84 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 3: how weadd is Donald Trump to protecting Taiwan. I mean, 85 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 3: he tends to look at relationships, certainly in his first 86 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 3: presidency with close allies like Japan, like South Korea, as 87 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 3: being very transactional, and one of the things is always 88 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 3: said to them is you've got to pay more for 89 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 3: your own defense. So he sees it as you know, look, 90 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 3: I'll look after you if you basically go and buy 91 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 3: more stuff from US. Now, Taiwan has a very easy 92 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 3: way out of its problems with the US. It runs 93 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 3: also large trade surpluses with the US. Just go and 94 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 3: buy weapons from the US. The US is willing to 95 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 3: sell them if it wants that type of transactional deal. 96 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 3: Taiwan could offer to go and buy them. Now. The 97 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 3: problem is under the Biden administration, it hasn't wanted to 98 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 3: sell some of the things that Taiwan wants, like advanced 99 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 3: fighter jets, because it will be seen as too provocative. 100 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 3: But you could see Trump going down that route now 101 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 3: if he does, and if he gets anywhere near close 102 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 3: to crossing the China's red lines on Taiwan and the 103 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,359 Speaker 3: things that's been threatened, as you know, actually starting to 104 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 3: recognize Taiwan more formally and diplomatically. Then I think it 105 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 3: would close off any space for discussions between China and 106 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 3: the US. They just simply wouldn't come to the table. 107 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 2: Interesting and very very interesting. 108 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: Hey, Peter, thanks very much, Really appreciate you talking us 109 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 1: through that. I can't wait to see how this all 110 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 1: plays out. As Peter Lewis Asia Business Correspondent. 111 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to 112 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,119 Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 113 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.