Speaker 1: You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks EDB.
Speaker 2: So, yes, all eyes are on the United States. It
Speaker 2: feels like it isn't going to be a long time
Speaker 2: coming as we count down to the final days of
Speaker 2: the election there. And Henry Olsen is, among other things,
Speaker 2: upholster and a political analyst, and he's well known for
Speaker 2: being one of those accurate analysts who's pretty good at forecasting,
Speaker 2: having correctly predicted the last two elections. And Henry joins me, now,
Speaker 2: good afternoon.
Speaker 3: Thank you for having me out.
Speaker 4: Good afternoon, Yeah, good afternoon.
Speaker 2: Is there life outside election talk in the USA right now?
Speaker 2: Or is that everything everyone's talking about?
Speaker 4: Pretty much?
Speaker 3: Although we do have college football today, so you're trying
Speaker 3: to get a diversion. You're talking about that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, What is the energy going on at the moment
Speaker 2: leading up to the campaign? Is it getting more and
Speaker 2: more intense with rhetoric and final campaign meetings?
Speaker 3: It's getting frantic more than intense. You've got the candidates
Speaker 3: making multiple appearances in multiple states each day, exhausting themselves
Speaker 3: to try and get the last mile out of the
Speaker 3: time left. Both candidates seem to be projecting confidence. Both
Speaker 3: campaigns are acting as if they think they're going to win,
Speaker 3: and could very well be that their data do tell
Speaker 3: them that, and of course one of them will be wrong.
Speaker 2: How is the rhetoric going from each side in terms
Speaker 2: of the direction each candidate is taking.
Speaker 3: Well, you know, they remain trying to make a contrast,
Speaker 3: which can sometimes be sharp and dark. It's not as
Speaker 3: dark as there was a few days ago with Harris
Speaker 3: talking about Trump being a fascist, but she does talk
Speaker 3: a lot about that he is somebody who's going to
Speaker 3: take office to take care of his enemies, not to
Speaker 3: fight for you. And of course Trump is always somebody
Speaker 3: who is taking the dark view of his opponent. But
Speaker 3: unfortunately in the United States, that is what we have
Speaker 3: become used to. So compare to some of the things
Speaker 3: we've heard, it's not as not as nasty as it
Speaker 3: has been, say.
Speaker 4: A week ago.
Speaker 2: Have there been any particular as you've mentioned one particular
Speaker 2: comment from Harris, Have there been any particular gaffes or
Speaker 2: events in the last week or two that have actually
Speaker 2: really made a difference. Has been talked about the Puerto
Speaker 2: Rico and Trump's recent comments about Liz Chiney, which didn't
Speaker 2: sound too flash, any of those genuinely making any difference
Speaker 2: in what we're seeing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not making a difference as far as we
Speaker 3: can tell from the data. I mean, you had Joe
Speaker 3: Biden who said that Trump supporters were garbage, which led
Speaker 3: to Trump having a very interesting stunt where garbage Trump
Speaker 3: picked him up in Green Bay on the airport and
Speaker 3: he wore a sanitation uniform at his rally that day.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 3: But the thing is, ninety something percent of the people
Speaker 3: know what they think. They either love Trump or they
Speaker 3: hate Trump, or they hate the Democrats or they love
Speaker 3: the Republicans. There's a lot of froth. There's a lot
Speaker 3: of signal or noise, but there's not a whole lot
Speaker 3: of signal.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: Most people have made their minds up. And this stuff
Speaker 3: is taking the news for focusing the news in a way,
Speaker 3: but it's not moving the numbers very much.
Speaker 4: What is the what is the lightest data?
Speaker 3: The latest data seemed to be that it's a toss up.
Speaker 3: The real Clear Politics average has Trump up by a
Speaker 3: couple of tents of the point, the Cook Politics average
Speaker 3: has Harris up by a couple of tents. With our
Speaker 3: electoral college system, Harris really needs to have a larger
Speaker 3: lead than that to have a good shot at winning.
Speaker 3: But of course the Harris campaign thinks they've got that,
Speaker 3: And there was a poll that came out just a
Speaker 3: couple hours ago that has Harris ahead in Io, which
Speaker 3: everyone thought Trump would win by a large margin. So
Speaker 3: there's dueling polsters and we'll see who ends up being right.
Speaker 3: But the data suggests we're coming down to a dead heat.
Speaker 4: We have quite a lot.
Speaker 2: I think we've got quite a large advanced voting numbers.
Speaker 2: Can you put that in give us the number on
Speaker 2: that and put us in context historically.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So we have about seventy five million people who
Speaker 3: have already cast votes. By the time election day comes around,
Speaker 3: that'll be over eighty maybe as much as eighty five million.
Speaker 3: That is probably the highest number we've ever had. It's
Speaker 3: somewhere around I think fifty five percent of the expected turnout,
Speaker 3: but it could be an indication that turnout will be
Speaker 3: much higher than most people think. We had one hundred
Speaker 3: and fifty nine million votes cast two years ago or
Speaker 3: four years ago. People thought it'd be a little bit less,
Speaker 3: but it might end up being more, and the advanced
Speaker 3: vote might be an indication of that.
Speaker 2: Does the advance vote tell you anything in terms of
Speaker 2: which side that might favor, because my gut reaction in
Speaker 2: New Zealand would be advanced vote tends to go towards
Speaker 2: the more idealistic voters.
Speaker 4: Does that tell you anything, you know?
Speaker 3: In the United States, the advanced vote has historically, in
Speaker 3: the last couple of cycles tended to tilt to the
Speaker 3: Democratic Party and Republicans have caught up on election day.
Speaker 3: The advanced vote in a number of states is more
Speaker 3: Republican than it was in the recent elections, and that
Speaker 3: could indicate a shift to the right. But it's hard
Speaker 3: to know because of course you can't be sure whether
Speaker 3: or not that's an indication of the electorate or if
Speaker 3: that's just a timing issue. You know, like if the
Speaker 3: Democrats who are not voting in Georgia early when they
Speaker 3: voted before, show up on election day, then it'll have
Speaker 3: been a mirage. But the base of the early voting
Speaker 3: so far has been more to the right than historic
Speaker 3: and some people think that might be good news for Trump.
Speaker 2: In terms of the swing states, of course, are there
Speaker 2: any of those that are really coming into the sharpest focus?
Speaker 3: Nevada is coming into sharp focus that we have probably
Speaker 3: seventy five percent of the votes that we expect to
Speaker 3: be cast are in Wow, and it is historically Republican.
Speaker 3: There's only about a day or two left where mailed
Speaker 3: ballots can arrive. If that doesn't change, if the Republicans
Speaker 3: still have a significant lead, which would be is their
Speaker 3: first lead in twenty years in a presidential year, that
Speaker 3: would be a strong sign that there won't be enough
Speaker 3: election day vote to turn it into Harris's corner.
Speaker 2: What's the risk of civil unrest do you think on
Speaker 2: election day?
Speaker 3: I wish I could say that that was an urban legend,
Speaker 3: but I think there's a reasonably high risk of sporadic rioting.
Speaker 3: I don't think there's going to be anything organized. Certainly
Speaker 3: neither candidate is going to do that. But when you
Speaker 3: have tensions this high and probably a lot of drinking
Speaker 3: going on during election night, you know this is a
Speaker 3: country where when teams win the Stanley Cup or football,
Speaker 3: their fans go out and riot and trash their city
Speaker 3: when they're happy. Imagine what happens when they think their
Speaker 3: candidate has lost.
Speaker 4: How long do you think it's going to be till
Speaker 4: we know anything?
Speaker 3: You know I am more of an optimist. I think
Speaker 3: we'll have a very strong sense of who is likely
Speaker 3: to win by midnight Eastern Time. It would have to
Speaker 3: be incredibly close for us to not have a direction,
Speaker 3: and I think we'll have a pretty firm sense even
Speaker 3: if the networks haven't called it by six in the
Speaker 3: morning Wednesday Eastern Time.
Speaker 2: Okay, well, let's we might as well push you for
Speaker 2: a production, but you prepared to call it for us today.
Speaker 3: My prediction shows up in the New York Post on Monday,
Speaker 3: and I'm not going to scoop myself even though you
Speaker 3: are many thousands of miles away.
Speaker 2: Well we are, But I guess the internet undoes us
Speaker 2: on that school, doesn't it?
Speaker 4: Yes, it does. Wait, will you be on election Nott, Henry.
Speaker 3: I will be at the University of Houston and I'll
Speaker 3: be doing a live stream of my analysis. I do
Speaker 3: live analysis starting from six thirty Eastern time, and I'll
Speaker 3: be doing a live stream I think, on my YouTube channel.
Speaker 3: So people who are interested, can you know me on
Speaker 3: x at Henry Olson EPPC. Get the link and as
Speaker 3: results come in, I'll say what it means and whether
Speaker 3: or not this is good or bad for either candidate
Speaker 3: and give you a little give you more detail than
Speaker 3: you want to know.
Speaker 2: Excellent, And just like you last, where are the candidates
Speaker 2: going to be? Because there was some confusion here. I
Speaker 2: think there was one of the reasons we weren't sending
Speaker 2: one of this one of our people might not be going,
Speaker 2: So I don't know where to go to hang out
Speaker 2: with Harris.
Speaker 4: Do we know where Harris and Trump are going to
Speaker 4: be on election not?
Speaker 3: They haven't told us yet exactly. There's rumors that Trump
Speaker 3: is going to be in West Palm Beach at Maro Lago,
Speaker 3: but that has not been confirmed, and I do not
Speaker 3: think that Harris has said where her election night party is.
Speaker 2: Okay, well, he look, we really appreciate your Timmy. You're
Speaker 2: insight this afternoon. And have fun on election night, Henry.
Speaker 3: I always do, even though it's exhausting and grueling. When
Speaker 3: one hundred and sixty million votes in the world's largest
Speaker 3: west d democracy or cast, how can it be anything
Speaker 3: but fun?
Speaker 4: Excellent.
Speaker 2: I really appreciate your time this afternoon. I think it's
Speaker 2: your evening, isn't it. So thanks for much. It is cheers,
Speaker 2: thank you, thank care, bye bye. That is Henry Olsen.
Speaker 2: He is an analyst and polster in the States and
Speaker 2: you will have heard his Twitter details. He has called
Speaker 2: the last he called I mean, I think if you've
Speaker 2: called the first election in twenty sixteen for Trump, he
Speaker 2: called that one, and he called the results of the
Speaker 2: last one. And go and check out his Twitter feed,
Speaker 2: but interesting insight.
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