WEBVTT - Henry Olsen: U.S. Pollster previews the election

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks EDB.

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<v Speaker 2>So, yes, all eyes are on the United States. It

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<v Speaker 2>feels like it isn't going to be a long time

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<v Speaker 2>coming as we count down to the final days of

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<v Speaker 2>the election there. And Henry Olsen is, among other things,

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<v Speaker 2>upholster and a political analyst, and he's well known for

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<v Speaker 2>being one of those accurate analysts who's pretty good at forecasting,

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<v Speaker 2>having correctly predicted the last two elections. And Henry joins me, now,

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<v Speaker 2>good afternoon.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you for having me out.

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<v Speaker 4>Good afternoon, Yeah, good afternoon.

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<v Speaker 2>Is there life outside election talk in the USA right now?

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<v Speaker 2>Or is that everything everyone's talking about?

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<v Speaker 4>Pretty much?

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<v Speaker 3>Although we do have college football today, so you're trying

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<v Speaker 3>to get a diversion. You're talking about that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, What is the energy going on at the moment

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<v Speaker 2>leading up to the campaign? Is it getting more and

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<v Speaker 2>more intense with rhetoric and final campaign meetings?

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<v Speaker 3>It's getting frantic more than intense. You've got the candidates

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<v Speaker 3>making multiple appearances in multiple states each day, exhausting themselves

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<v Speaker 3>to try and get the last mile out of the

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<v Speaker 3>time left. Both candidates seem to be projecting confidence. Both

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<v Speaker 3>campaigns are acting as if they think they're going to win,

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<v Speaker 3>and could very well be that their data do tell

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<v Speaker 3>them that, and of course one of them will be wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>How is the rhetoric going from each side in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of the direction each candidate is taking.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, they remain trying to make a contrast,

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<v Speaker 3>which can sometimes be sharp and dark. It's not as

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<v Speaker 3>dark as there was a few days ago with Harris

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<v Speaker 3>talking about Trump being a fascist, but she does talk

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<v Speaker 3>a lot about that he is somebody who's going to

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<v Speaker 3>take office to take care of his enemies, not to

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<v Speaker 3>fight for you. And of course Trump is always somebody

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<v Speaker 3>who is taking the dark view of his opponent. But

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<v Speaker 3>unfortunately in the United States, that is what we have

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<v Speaker 3>become used to. So compare to some of the things

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<v Speaker 3>we've heard, it's not as not as nasty as it

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<v Speaker 3>has been, say.

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<v Speaker 4>A week ago.

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<v Speaker 2>Have there been any particular as you've mentioned one particular

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<v Speaker 2>comment from Harris, Have there been any particular gaffes or

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<v Speaker 2>events in the last week or two that have actually

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<v Speaker 2>really made a difference. Has been talked about the Puerto

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<v Speaker 2>Rico and Trump's recent comments about Liz Chiney, which didn't

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<v Speaker 2>sound too flash, any of those genuinely making any difference

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<v Speaker 2>in what we're seeing.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's not making a difference as far as we

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<v Speaker 3>can tell from the data. I mean, you had Joe

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<v Speaker 3>Biden who said that Trump supporters were garbage, which led

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<v Speaker 3>to Trump having a very interesting stunt where garbage Trump

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<v Speaker 3>picked him up in Green Bay on the airport and

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<v Speaker 3>he wore a sanitation uniform at his rally that day.

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<v Speaker 4>You know.

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<v Speaker 3>But the thing is, ninety something percent of the people

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<v Speaker 3>know what they think. They either love Trump or they

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<v Speaker 3>hate Trump, or they hate the Democrats or they love

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<v Speaker 3>the Republicans. There's a lot of froth. There's a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of signal or noise, but there's not a whole lot

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<v Speaker 3>of signal.

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<v Speaker 1>You know.

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<v Speaker 3>Most people have made their minds up. And this stuff

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<v Speaker 3>is taking the news for focusing the news in a way,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's not moving the numbers very much.

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<v Speaker 4>What is the what is the lightest data?

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<v Speaker 3>The latest data seemed to be that it's a toss up.

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<v Speaker 3>The real Clear Politics average has Trump up by a

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<v Speaker 3>couple of tents of the point, the Cook Politics average

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<v Speaker 3>has Harris up by a couple of tents. With our

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<v Speaker 3>electoral college system, Harris really needs to have a larger

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<v Speaker 3>lead than that to have a good shot at winning.

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<v Speaker 3>But of course the Harris campaign thinks they've got that,

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<v Speaker 3>And there was a poll that came out just a

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<v Speaker 3>couple hours ago that has Harris ahead in Io, which

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<v Speaker 3>everyone thought Trump would win by a large margin. So

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<v Speaker 3>there's dueling polsters and we'll see who ends up being right.

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<v Speaker 3>But the data suggests we're coming down to a dead heat.

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<v Speaker 4>We have quite a lot.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we've got quite a large advanced voting numbers.

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<v Speaker 2>Can you put that in give us the number on

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<v Speaker 2>that and put us in context historically.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So we have about seventy five million people who

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<v Speaker 3>have already cast votes. By the time election day comes around,

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<v Speaker 3>that'll be over eighty maybe as much as eighty five million.

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<v Speaker 3>That is probably the highest number we've ever had. It's

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<v Speaker 3>somewhere around I think fifty five percent of the expected turnout,

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<v Speaker 3>but it could be an indication that turnout will be

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<v Speaker 3>much higher than most people think. We had one hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and fifty nine million votes cast two years ago or

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<v Speaker 3>four years ago. People thought it'd be a little bit less,

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<v Speaker 3>but it might end up being more, and the advanced

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<v Speaker 3>vote might be an indication of that.

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<v Speaker 2>Does the advance vote tell you anything in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>which side that might favor, because my gut reaction in

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<v Speaker 2>New Zealand would be advanced vote tends to go towards

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<v Speaker 2>the more idealistic voters.

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<v Speaker 4>Does that tell you anything, you know?

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<v Speaker 3>In the United States, the advanced vote has historically, in

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<v Speaker 3>the last couple of cycles tended to tilt to the

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<v Speaker 3>Democratic Party and Republicans have caught up on election day.

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<v Speaker 3>The advanced vote in a number of states is more

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<v Speaker 3>Republican than it was in the recent elections, and that

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<v Speaker 3>could indicate a shift to the right. But it's hard

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<v Speaker 3>to know because of course you can't be sure whether

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<v Speaker 3>or not that's an indication of the electorate or if

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<v Speaker 3>that's just a timing issue. You know, like if the

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<v Speaker 3>Democrats who are not voting in Georgia early when they

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<v Speaker 3>voted before, show up on election day, then it'll have

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<v Speaker 3>been a mirage. But the base of the early voting

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<v Speaker 3>so far has been more to the right than historic

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<v Speaker 3>and some people think that might be good news for Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>In terms of the swing states, of course, are there

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<v Speaker 2>any of those that are really coming into the sharpest focus?

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<v Speaker 3>Nevada is coming into sharp focus that we have probably

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<v Speaker 3>seventy five percent of the votes that we expect to

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<v Speaker 3>be cast are in Wow, and it is historically Republican.

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<v Speaker 3>There's only about a day or two left where mailed

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<v Speaker 3>ballots can arrive. If that doesn't change, if the Republicans

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<v Speaker 3>still have a significant lead, which would be is their

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<v Speaker 3>first lead in twenty years in a presidential year, that

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<v Speaker 3>would be a strong sign that there won't be enough

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<v Speaker 3>election day vote to turn it into Harris's corner.

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<v Speaker 2>What's the risk of civil unrest do you think on

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<v Speaker 2>election day?

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<v Speaker 3>I wish I could say that that was an urban legend,

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<v Speaker 3>but I think there's a reasonably high risk of sporadic rioting.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think there's going to be anything organized. Certainly

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<v Speaker 3>neither candidate is going to do that. But when you

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<v Speaker 3>have tensions this high and probably a lot of drinking

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<v Speaker 3>going on during election night, you know this is a

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<v Speaker 3>country where when teams win the Stanley Cup or football,

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<v Speaker 3>their fans go out and riot and trash their city

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<v Speaker 3>when they're happy. Imagine what happens when they think their

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<v Speaker 3>candidate has lost.

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<v Speaker 4>How long do you think it's going to be till

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<v Speaker 4>we know anything?

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<v Speaker 3>You know I am more of an optimist. I think

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<v Speaker 3>we'll have a very strong sense of who is likely

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<v Speaker 3>to win by midnight Eastern Time. It would have to

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<v Speaker 3>be incredibly close for us to not have a direction,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think we'll have a pretty firm sense even

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<v Speaker 3>if the networks haven't called it by six in the

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<v Speaker 3>morning Wednesday Eastern Time.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, well, let's we might as well push you for

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<v Speaker 2>a production, but you prepared to call it for us today.

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<v Speaker 3>My prediction shows up in the New York Post on Monday,

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<v Speaker 3>and I'm not going to scoop myself even though you

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<v Speaker 3>are many thousands of miles away.

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<v Speaker 2>Well we are, But I guess the internet undoes us

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<v Speaker 2>on that school, doesn't it?

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, it does. Wait, will you be on election Nott, Henry.

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<v Speaker 3>I will be at the University of Houston and I'll

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<v Speaker 3>be doing a live stream of my analysis. I do

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<v Speaker 3>live analysis starting from six thirty Eastern time, and I'll

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<v Speaker 3>be doing a live stream I think, on my YouTube channel.

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<v Speaker 3>So people who are interested, can you know me on

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<v Speaker 3>x at Henry Olson EPPC. Get the link and as

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<v Speaker 3>results come in, I'll say what it means and whether

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<v Speaker 3>or not this is good or bad for either candidate

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<v Speaker 3>and give you a little give you more detail than

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<v Speaker 3>you want to know.

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<v Speaker 2>Excellent, And just like you last, where are the candidates

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<v Speaker 2>going to be? Because there was some confusion here. I

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<v Speaker 2>think there was one of the reasons we weren't sending

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<v Speaker 2>one of this one of our people might not be going,

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<v Speaker 2>So I don't know where to go to hang out

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<v Speaker 2>with Harris.

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<v Speaker 4>Do we know where Harris and Trump are going to

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<v Speaker 4>be on election not?

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<v Speaker 3>They haven't told us yet exactly. There's rumors that Trump

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be in West Palm Beach at Maro Lago,

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<v Speaker 3>but that has not been confirmed, and I do not

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<v Speaker 3>think that Harris has said where her election night party is.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, well, he look, we really appreciate your Timmy. You're

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<v Speaker 2>insight this afternoon. And have fun on election night, Henry.

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<v Speaker 3>I always do, even though it's exhausting and grueling. When

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred and sixty million votes in the world's largest

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<v Speaker 3>west d democracy or cast, how can it be anything

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<v Speaker 3>but fun?

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<v Speaker 4>Excellent.

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<v Speaker 2>I really appreciate your time this afternoon. I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>your evening, isn't it. So thanks for much. It is cheers,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you, thank care, bye bye. That is Henry Olsen.

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<v Speaker 2>He is an analyst and polster in the States and

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<v Speaker 2>you will have heard his Twitter details. He has called

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<v Speaker 2>the last he called I mean, I think if you've

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<v Speaker 2>called the first election in twenty sixteen for Trump, he

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<v Speaker 2>called that one, and he called the results of the

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<v Speaker 2>last one. And go and check out his Twitter feed,

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<v Speaker 2>but interesting insight.

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<v Speaker 1>For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News

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