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Speaker 1: Quarter three GDP up one point one percent. Nikola Willis

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Speaker 1: is cracking the champagne a little early for Christmas. A

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Speaker 1: huge turnaround from the second quarter when the economy shrank

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Speaker 1: one percent. Looking at the past year, we were were

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Speaker 1: actually a bit smaller, point four percent smaller than in

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Speaker 1: the year two September twenty four. Brad Olson, Informetrics principal

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Speaker 1: economist is with me tonight, Brad, good evening, Good evening.

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Speaker 2: A turnaround there, It was quite a turnaround. But you're

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Speaker 2: right that realistically the economy is still not necessarily been

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Speaker 2: growing by leaps and bounds. It's more tried to fill

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Speaker 2: in the hole that we had earlier this year. There

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Speaker 2: was a little bit more activity at the start of

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Speaker 2: the year, of course, a bit more of a cratering

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Speaker 2: in the second quarter, and then abouts back in September.

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Speaker 2: So that's good and I think probably the most pleasing

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Speaker 2: part of that result, and I don't want to overreg it,

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Speaker 2: but you did see that fourteen of the sixteen measured

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Speaker 2: industries that statsn Z looks at did see an improvement,

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Speaker 2: so it was a bit more broad based over all

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Speaker 2: of the figures, which is encouraging, you know, you were

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Speaker 2: seeing a lift in the likes of manufacturing, you were

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Speaker 2: seeing more coming through from professional and business services, so

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Speaker 2: that was encouraging that Again, momentum is starting to build,

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Speaker 2: but it's building from a weak spot. So we're certainly

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Speaker 2: not saying that, you know, the economy is completely back,

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Speaker 2: but it is on a better track.

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Speaker 1: And that's the point important point to make, isn't it

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Speaker 1: that while the numbers, if you look at the number

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Speaker 1: as a nominal figure, we're growing three times as fast

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Speaker 1: in this quarter than as the Australians. We're growing as

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Speaker 1: fast as China in this quarter. But it won't feel

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Speaker 1: like that because we're coming off a very low base,

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Speaker 1: well exactly.

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Speaker 2: And look if you look at you know, the Australian

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Speaker 2: figures are compared to where we were, you know, last time,

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Speaker 2: so you know, New Zealand was down you know, one percent,

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Speaker 2: whereas the Australians they were still growing. And so if

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Speaker 2: you sort of look at them all together, they grew

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Speaker 2: i think, point six percent on the second quarter. We

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Speaker 2: were down one percent. We've then come back one point

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Speaker 2: one percent in this quarter they were up point four

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Speaker 2: So you add them together, we're basically in a pretty

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Speaker 2: similar position. We just had to go through a world

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Speaker 2: of pain to sort of get there where they've had

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Speaker 2: sort of more consistent growth. And that's probably the piece

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Speaker 2: we're looking for a lot more next year, is can

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Speaker 2: we just get a bit more consistency. Everyone's asking, of course,

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Speaker 2: for better economic numbers, and yes, that's totally true, but

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Speaker 2: you also need a bit more of that consistency before

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Speaker 2: businesses and households really buy into an economic recovery and say, look,

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Speaker 2: it's actually happening, happening, I can plan my life around it,

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Speaker 2: rather than everyone going, well, look it was good now,

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Speaker 2: but then it might sort of pull back and then

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Speaker 2: it might be better in the future. That sort of

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Speaker 2: stop start element of the economy is not helpful going forward,

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Speaker 2: and so these figures, being broad based, do support a

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Speaker 2: little bit more of that uptick as we head through

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Speaker 2: into twenty twenty six rare.

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Speaker 1: Do we need to worry too much about Fonterra downgrading

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Speaker 1: it cutting its forecast? I mean, we know the price

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Speaker 1: has been dropping on the global dairy trade options, but

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Speaker 1: do we need to be worried about the fact that

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Speaker 1: this is coming down? Does that affect the growth for

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Speaker 1: next year?

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Speaker 2: Look, it doesn't make it quite as easy to maintain

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Speaker 2: that sort of same growth profile. But equally, look, this

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Speaker 2: has been signaled when Fontira came out with their first

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Speaker 2: price for the year, they deliberately we had it a

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Speaker 2: bit more open and sort of signaled the look of

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Speaker 2: things turned around. Then we could be getting back to

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Speaker 2: these sort of levels. It's still a decent payout, I mean,

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Speaker 2: for goodness sake, it's still over nine bucks. That's a

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Speaker 2: good number, but it does start to again just trim

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Speaker 2: it a back a bit. And we know that the

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Speaker 2: primary sector, although they have had more money in recent

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Speaker 2: times coming through, they haven't necessarily spent it straight away.

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Speaker 2: So look, you've still seen some good recovery in parts

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Speaker 2: of provincial and rural New Zealand. But I think it

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Speaker 2: just goes to show that we sort of can't bank

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Speaker 2: on any one bit being the silver bullet for economic

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Speaker 2: growth in the next year. It does have to be

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Speaker 2: a little bit more across the board, and those global shops,

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Speaker 2: those global factors that we can't control at home are

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Speaker 2: still things that we're going to have to watch out for.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Brad Brad Olson in for metrics. They by

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Speaker 1: the way, the Fonterra price forecast cut from nine point

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Speaker 1: fifty down to nine dollars their midpoint. And as I said,

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Speaker 1: the global dairy trade options have been coming down. But

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Speaker 1: if you look prices down for since the May peak

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Speaker 1: are down a quarter and Fonterra price now down since

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Speaker 1: the start of the season ten percent, and supply obviously

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Speaker 1: has been going up. What does it do to on

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Speaker 1: farm costs, on farm profits. We'll talk to Jami mckaye,

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Speaker 1: host of the Country After Six, on that later.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive.

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