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Speaker 1: Lots of texts coming on China, Taiwan, China's surrounding Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: and basically military drills yesterday. Good morning, Ryan. With America

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Speaker 1: currently led by a politically weak, lame duck president and

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Speaker 1: preoccupied with its election, it makes sense for China to

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Speaker 1: try and push the line of what's acceptable to try

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Speaker 1: and force political concessions from Taiwan right now, certainly before

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Speaker 1: a possible Trump presidency. Thanks Peter, Peter, thanks for your

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Speaker 1: call your text this morning. Robert Patman, the Ottaga University

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Speaker 1: international relations experts with me this morning. Robert, Good morning

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Speaker 1: to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Ryan.

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Speaker 1: Do you reckon Pete's got a point?

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Speaker 2: I think he's got a point. We certainly are entering

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Speaker 2: what may be described as lame duck territory. But it's

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Speaker 2: fair to say that China has been quite concerned about

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Speaker 2: the president the administration running Taiwan for some time. William Lai,

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Speaker 2: who's thought following in the steps of his predecessor in

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Speaker 2: saying that Taiwan is an independent country and that China

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Speaker 2: has no right to speak twenty three million people who

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Speaker 2: live in Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's saying, you won't annex us. Basically and that's

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Speaker 1: ut China is. Would they have done this if the

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Speaker 1: US wasn't busy in the Middle East, in Ukraine and

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Speaker 1: everywhere else, or would you think they would have done

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Speaker 1: this anyway?

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Speaker 2: I think they're testing the waters. This is part of

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Speaker 2: the long term policy. I mean, ideally, China would like

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Speaker 2: Taiwan to fall into their lap without the use of force.

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Speaker 2: It's an attempt at political intimidation having these drills involving

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Speaker 2: warships and fipro jets. But Taiwan's having none of it.

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Speaker 2: It condemned the drills, and so it's military are holding

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Speaker 2: its positions at sea and in the air. And if

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Speaker 2: China hasn't ruled out use of force in the future,

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Speaker 2: if it did decide to use force, it would find

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Speaker 2: out that Taiwan is formable faux potential foe if it

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Speaker 2: used force. Of course, Taiwan doesn't want that and China

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Speaker 2: doesn't want that, but they have inflicting political objectives. I

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Speaker 2: think the Chinese leadership is testing America's result. As you

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Speaker 2: quite rightly say, America's distracted, particularly by the events in

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Speaker 2: the Middle East recently, but before and to some degree

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Speaker 2: also by the Ukraine situation and the Chinese are very

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Speaker 2: mindful that mister Trump will be cutting America's commitments to Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: and that would give mister Putin a China ally unti

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Speaker 2: factor of victory in Ukraine. And this is something to watch.

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Speaker 2: I think it's not just the lamb Duck actor, which

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Speaker 2: I think is real, but I think even Biger factor

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Speaker 2: is a doubt whether mister Trump, despite his rhetoric, would

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Speaker 2: actually have the same determination to support allies as mister Biden.

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Speaker 2: At least see mister Trump as much more of a

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Speaker 2: transactional president who moves from issue to issue and studies

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Speaker 2: everything case by case.

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Speaker 1: Can you give us a very quick update Ukraine? Obviously

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Speaker 1: these oil energy prices outside of the human cost of

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Speaker 1: these wars. But for little old place like New Zealand,

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Speaker 1: you know Ukraine, you get your changes to oil prices

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Speaker 1: the Middle East. We've got our trade routes affected. What

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Speaker 1: would a blockade of Taiwan mean for New Zealand financially.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's a very bad news. We have excellent relations

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Speaker 2: so in Taiwan. I think it's the sixth or seventh

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Speaker 2: biggest trade partner of New Zealand. And of course China

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Speaker 2: is our biggest trade partner, so it's potentially a double

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Speaker 2: where me if those two countries got involved in conflict

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Speaker 2: and the other thing is At the moment, New Zealand

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Speaker 2: is struggling to maintain what's called international rules based order,

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Speaker 2: and the conflict there would only further who rode that process.

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Speaker 2: Why doesn't you need an international rules based order because

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Speaker 2: we trade with more than one hundred countries around the

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Speaker 2: world and we need rules. Rules are there for the week,

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Speaker 2: not for the strong. And if you had a superpower

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Speaker 2: flecting its muscles and ignoring international law, again a pattern

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Speaker 2: we've seen with Ukraine now, Gaza now and possibly Taiwan,

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Speaker 2: that would be very bad news for small and middle

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Speaker 2: powers in the world, which are the majority but don't

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Speaker 2: actually have majority saying what happens.

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Speaker 1: Robert Petman, thank you very much for your time. I

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Speaker 1: Tiger University International Relations expert responding near to the military

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Speaker 1: drills being conducted by China around Taiwan yesterday.

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Speaker 2: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live

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Speaker 2: to News Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or

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Speaker 2: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.