1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Now, annual food prices have dropped, as I was telling 2 00:00:02,800 --> 00:00:04,680 Speaker 1: you for the first time as success, which was fantastic, 3 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: and the degree decrease was driven by lower prices for tomatoes, 4 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: cheese and potatoes. Liam dan is The Herald's Business editor 5 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: at large and. 6 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 2: With us now Alim good A Heather. 7 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: How big is this in terms of the factoring that 8 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: the decision making for the Reserve Bank, this particular set 9 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:20,079 Speaker 1: of data. 10 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 2: Well, it's a subset, I guess, so it's not as 11 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,279 Speaker 2: big as what we get next Wednesday. So what we 12 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 2: got today, I think we're all learning about you. You know, 13 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 2: people know the difference now non tradable and tradable. You've 14 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 2: got your domestic inflation and your stuff that comes in 15 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 2: from imported prices and so on, and so the Reserve 16 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 2: Bank's worried about the non tradable stuff. There's a lot 17 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 2: of tradable stuff in here. So we knew it was 18 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 2: coming off. We knew, you know, after the sight clones 19 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 2: of last year, that fruit and vege was going to 20 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,919 Speaker 2: look a lot better. Cheese prices are looking pretty good 21 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 2: in the supermarket right now, which you know, ironically is 22 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 2: not great for the economy because you'll probably hear a 23 00:00:56,600 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 2: bit later that it's not good for the farmers. But so, 24 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 2: you know, we're seeing that stuff. Petrol was down across 25 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 2: the year, that's good. But what the Reserve Bank really 26 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 2: needs to see is the service sect, the rates, the insurance, 27 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 2: all that non tradable stuff, and we get most of 28 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 2: that next week in the full CPI inflation data. So 29 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 2: that's when we'd you know, possibly get some numbers that 30 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 2: might justify that kind of sort of optimistic turn we've 31 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 2: seen in the last twenty four hours or so. 32 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 1: So the reason it's come back largely is fruit and 33 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 1: veggies down sixteen percent. But then on the other side, 34 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: olive oil has it a massive price surge. One leader 35 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 1: is up nearly fifty percent to twenty bucks. Has your 36 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:44,040 Speaker 1: family switched away? Have you guys gone rape seed oil? 37 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 2: Yet? Good? Good, good point. I've been talking about the team, go. 38 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: With with the missus, go with it. 39 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, well no, actually I did the cooking, so but 40 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 2: the team at worked, you know, go with the cheap oil, 41 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 2: put a splash of extra vergin, and then you've kind 42 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 2: of cut yourself a cheap olive oil substitute. Well, I 43 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 2: don't know if it's a fact. I just made it up, 44 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:08,079 Speaker 2: but it seems to work. I mean, you know, Olive 45 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 2: the extra Virgin's got all the flavor and it's priced, 46 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 2: it's slightly more expensive, but you use a tiny bit 47 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 2: of that with some cheaper, cheaper oils. But you know, 48 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 2: that's crazy. That's down to you know, that's down to 49 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 2: what's what's happened in Spain and Italy and it's it's 50 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 2: one of those shocks, and it's an interesting shot because 51 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 2: it's one of those things that reminds us that we 52 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 2: need to get our own domestic inflation down because we 53 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 2: have no control over the stuff that goes on around 54 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 2: the world. You know, we could we could see petrol 55 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 2: prices spike again, something bad could or probably will happen 56 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 2: in the world in the next year or so. So 57 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 2: you know, we can't rely on just you know, global 58 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: prices going our way. We've we've kind of got to 59 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 2: get it under control in New Zealand and yeah, hopefully 60 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 2: we're nearly there. 61 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, I know what you're going to say, Liam, 62 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: You're going to say, hither you always talk smack about 63 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: Adrian or but Liam, this flip flop is credibility damaging, 64 00:02:58,680 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 1: isn't it. 65 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,959 Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I thought about this. I mean, look, I 66 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 2: was I was a little confused like everyone about the 67 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 2: September you know that that September forecast, And I guess 68 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 2: it was trying to talk tough to you know, to 69 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 2: get get to put the fear of God, I get 70 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 2: into the everyone in the economy, and it kind of worked, 71 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 2: and maybe it works too well. But look, it's it's 72 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: it's it's all a bit of a strategic game. All 73 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 2: the talking and speculating and what the markets do. In 74 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 2: the end, you've got to look at the results. And so, Okay, 75 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 2: there's a fair bit of criticism for inflation going too high, 76 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 2: that's that's one thing. But if you can get inflation 77 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 2: back in its blocks by the end of the year, 78 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 2: that's that's a result. So yeah, you know why what 79 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: they played it really tough and then they've softened it. 80 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: No one they were going to it's the problem, no no. 81 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 2: No one, No one believed it was going to. 82 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 1: So they didn't have credibility. So you basically you agree 83 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: with me, they didn't have credibility. 84 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 2: Well, I think it's part of the game. I don't 85 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 2: know if it's I don't know if that, you know, 86 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 2: like again, what what counts is? Then if you're going 87 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 2: to argue the credibility line, I would say. 88 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 1: The most important thing is the inflation. 89 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, so that is a fair argument. That is around 90 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 2: what happened over the last year and a half. I mean, 91 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 2: you can talk about the global context and all that 92 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 2: sort of stuff, but it was well outside the box, 93 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 2: you know. But can they get it back down? That 94 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 2: will be that will be I mean, I think that'll 95 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 2: be a victory if they can get it back down 96 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 2: this year and they can keep unemployment under five something 97 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 2: like that, five point three, you know. Yep, But that's 98 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 2: that's me. Yep. You can have an opinion. That's that's 99 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 2: why it's. 100 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: Allowed on opinion, and I appreciate that your opinion is 101 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: a positive opinion. Liam. Thank you, Liam Dan the Heralds 102 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: Business editor at large. For more from Hither duplessy Alan Drive, 103 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: listen live to news talks. 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