WEBVTT - Leighton Smith Podcast #273 - February 26th 2025 - George Friedman 0:00:09.093 --> 0:00:11.973 You're listening to a podcast from News Talks ed B. 0:00:12.373 --> 0:00:16.173 Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio. 0:00:16.693 --> 0:00:19.733 It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all 0:00:19.773 --> 0:00:21.973 the information, all the debates of. 0:00:22.053 --> 0:00:24.293 The sis, now. 0:00:24.213 --> 0:00:27.653 The Leighton Smith Podcast powered by News Talks ed B. 0:00:27.973 --> 0:00:30.933 Welcome to podcasts two seventy three for February twenty six, 0:00:31.093 --> 0:00:35.533 twenty twenty five. For those unfamiliar with George Friedman, albeit 0:00:35.893 --> 0:00:39.653 probably few in number, George has a doctorate and a 0:00:39.653 --> 0:00:43.973 professorship in his past. He has experience in areas involving defense, 0:00:44.573 --> 0:00:49.093 and he started two companies Stratford, followed by his present organization, 0:00:49.173 --> 0:00:52.773 Geopolitical Futures, and of course there are a number of books. 0:00:52.973 --> 0:00:55.413 My first meeting with him was in nineteen eighty six, 0:00:56.013 --> 0:00:59.373 and while we all may have differences of opinion, his 0:01:00.053 --> 0:01:04.173 is worth assessing. Now. We spent most of the first half, 0:01:04.213 --> 0:01:07.333 if not all of it, on China, New Zealand and 0:01:07.413 --> 0:01:10.293 the Cook Islands, after which we moved on to the 0:01:10.333 --> 0:01:13.493 Middle East, to Russia and Ukraine, and a couple of 0:01:13.533 --> 0:01:17.493 other matters, including on my dad, Donald Trump's IQ. But 0:01:17.613 --> 0:01:21.173 first there are major issues concerning most of the planet 0:01:21.733 --> 0:01:25.213 Some are local, others are regional, others are international. New 0:01:25.333 --> 0:01:28.373 Zealand is not in good shape on many fronts, not 0:01:28.573 --> 0:01:33.093 helped by political obfuscation. The adern failure speaks for itself. 0:01:33.493 --> 0:01:39.333 But there's still under present leadership issues being mishandled, including 0:01:39.333 --> 0:01:44.853 medical issues, climate absurdities, productivity restraints. And I could draw 0:01:44.933 --> 0:01:48.213 up quite a list. By the way, speaking of productivity, 0:01:48.613 --> 0:01:51.053 I have an example of that, a personal one in 0:01:52.053 --> 0:01:54.533 just a moment. Although it's not my intention today to 0:01:54.573 --> 0:01:58.693 turn climate change issues into a major I do want 0:01:58.693 --> 0:02:00.733 to cover off a couple of things. Want to quote 0:02:00.733 --> 0:02:04.733 you something from Roger Scrutin's Green Philosophy, How to Think 0:02:04.853 --> 0:02:08.133 Seriously About the Planet. In ninety sixty eight, Paul Erlick 0:02:08.373 --> 0:02:11.493 initiated a worldwide movement of anxiety with his book The 0:02:11.493 --> 0:02:16.373 Population Bomb, which predicted that global overpopulation would cause massive 0:02:16.413 --> 0:02:20.573 hamines as early as the seventies. Demographic studies showing that 0:02:20.973 --> 0:02:25.453 birth rate declines as wealth increases were largely ignored in 0:02:25.493 --> 0:02:28.453 the ensuing panic, and it only now that the truth 0:02:28.653 --> 0:02:31.453 is widely accepted that famines are, for the most part 0:02:32.053 --> 0:02:36.733 political phenomena, the result of military conflict of state control 0:02:36.853 --> 0:02:40.333 of the food economy, or, as in the Soviet Union, 0:02:40.773 --> 0:02:44.573 a policy of genocide. Again, in nineteen seventy two, a 0:02:44.653 --> 0:02:48.533 number of scientists began to predict a catastrophic cooling of 0:02:48.573 --> 0:02:51.173 the Earth, and in no time the prediction had become 0:02:51.213 --> 0:02:55.853 a widespread scare. Major cooling, widely considered to be inevitable. 0:02:55.893 --> 0:02:59.173 Was The New York Times headline and science digest of 0:02:59.333 --> 0:03:03.493 nineteen seventy three told its readers to brace themselves for 0:03:03.653 --> 0:03:08.213 another ice age. The Cooling by the American science writer 0:03:08.573 --> 0:03:13.253 Loull Ponti, published in nineteen seventy six, attempted to summarize 0:03:13.293 --> 0:03:16.133 the evidence and to prepare us for the worst, informing 0:03:16.133 --> 0:03:19.853 its readers that the cooling has already killed hundreds of 0:03:19.893 --> 0:03:23.333 thousands of people in poor nations, and in their entertaining 0:03:23.373 --> 0:03:27.573 book on mass Panics, Scared to Death, Christopher Booker and 0:03:27.653 --> 0:03:31.213 Richard North enjoy pointing out that many of those who 0:03:31.253 --> 0:03:35.173 had devoted their energies to warning the world against global 0:03:35.253 --> 0:03:39.653 cooling within a year or two spreading alarms about global 0:03:39.693 --> 0:03:44.813 warming instead. Such examples illustrates something that all wise people know, 0:03:45.573 --> 0:03:48.813 which is that the truth of a proposition is often 0:03:48.813 --> 0:03:52.813 the least important among the many motives for believing it. 0:03:54.053 --> 0:03:57.293 Panics arise where there is an interest in promoting them, 0:03:57.573 --> 0:04:01.093 and they pass from person to person with the irresistible 0:04:01.093 --> 0:04:03.853 force of a contagious disease. So let me turn to 0:04:04.773 --> 0:04:08.853 a couple of current headlines verse from the Epic Times. 0:04:09.213 --> 0:04:11.733 The world is not going to reach NED zero by 0:04:11.853 --> 0:04:16.653 twenty fifty. Vaklev Schmil is one of the leading thinkers 0:04:16.693 --> 0:04:21.133 on energy and environment. Last year, the Distinguished Professor Emeritus 0:04:21.293 --> 0:04:25.453 in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Manitoba 0:04:26.093 --> 0:04:29.533 pend an extensive report for the Fraser Institute, a libertarian 0:04:29.573 --> 0:04:33.333 conservative Canadian public policy think tank. In it, he outlined 0:04:33.413 --> 0:04:37.653 numerous reasons why NED zero by twenty fifty is highly unlikely, 0:04:38.213 --> 0:04:42.733 and he began with the glaring fact despite international agreements, 0:04:43.293 --> 0:04:49.013 government spending and regulations, and technological advancements, global fossil fuel 0:04:49.053 --> 0:04:53.093 consumption surge by fifty five percent between nineteen ninety seven 0:04:53.493 --> 0:04:57.573 and twenty twenty three. A second headline, Trump policy will 0:04:57.573 --> 0:05:02.893 embolden developing world to reject climate agenda, which they're already 0:05:02.893 --> 0:05:05.653 doing anyway, It'll just give them more weight. And I'm 0:05:05.693 --> 0:05:10.773 talking countries like Nigeria, West of Africa probably, and the 0:05:10.773 --> 0:05:16.213 fact that China, India and other countries are ignoring totally 0:05:16.613 --> 0:05:20.973 and building coal fired power plants by the dozen. And 0:05:21.053 --> 0:05:23.973 yet here in New Zealand we have a government and 0:05:24.053 --> 0:05:27.893 a Minister for climate change who was introduced an approach 0:05:28.373 --> 0:05:32.493 that is even worse than the adern administration had put 0:05:32.533 --> 0:05:36.653 in place. How idiotic is that? And then there's the 0:05:36.693 --> 0:05:39.053 Prime Minister who says that anybody in the twenty first 0:05:39.053 --> 0:05:42.533 century who doesn't believe that climate change is man made 0:05:42.613 --> 0:05:44.973 is an idiot. I think we should turn the pointer 0:05:45.213 --> 0:05:49.693 around one hundred and eighty degrees. And as for any 0:05:49.773 --> 0:05:52.973 comment that goes along the lines of we have to 0:05:53.013 --> 0:05:55.573 do our little bit for the world, I cannot think 0:05:55.573 --> 0:05:57.773 of a more insane comment to be making at this 0:05:57.853 --> 0:06:01.853 particular moment. Now, as for my example of productivity failure, 0:06:02.173 --> 0:06:06.813 it goes like this. On the nineteenth of the month February, 0:06:07.413 --> 0:06:11.093 I ordered a book. Now, I'd search the internet to 0:06:11.093 --> 0:06:12.973 find out how quickly I could get my hands on it, 0:06:13.013 --> 0:06:18.293 because I wanted it fairly urgently, And I looked at 0:06:18.853 --> 0:06:20.973 Amazon Australia. Then We're going to take a week or so, 0:06:21.573 --> 0:06:24.733 a couple of other places, and I ended up with 0:06:25.333 --> 0:06:27.613 Mighty Ape and Mighty Ape were going to get it 0:06:27.653 --> 0:06:32.413 to me by this was the nineteenth. Mighty eight was 0:06:32.453 --> 0:06:34.173 going to get it to me by the twenty first, 0:06:35.533 --> 0:06:38.093 So it was a case of forty eight hours or 0:06:38.133 --> 0:06:41.013 even less, depending on what time had got here. However, 0:06:41.093 --> 0:06:45.653 come the day, which was the twenty first of February, 0:06:46.333 --> 0:06:50.133 it didn't turn up. So I went and checked, and 0:06:50.653 --> 0:06:54.173 I found the movements the book had made, and it 0:06:54.253 --> 0:06:58.533 had gone from the Apernall's shore to East Tammocke, for 0:06:58.573 --> 0:07:02.573 goodness sake, the Apernalls Shore to East Tammockee on the 0:07:02.653 --> 0:07:06.013 other side of the city by some considerable margin, and 0:07:06.053 --> 0:07:10.253 there it stayed from the nineteenth to the twenty fifth 0:07:10.333 --> 0:07:12.773 when it was delivered. So for something that should have 0:07:12.773 --> 0:07:15.813 taken two days, it took six days or five if 0:07:15.813 --> 0:07:17.333 you want, I don't mind which. 0:07:17.413 --> 0:07:17.493 Now. 0:07:17.573 --> 0:07:20.533 I don't blame Mighty Ape for it, but I certainly 0:07:20.533 --> 0:07:23.853 hold the New Zealand Post to account for taking six 0:07:23.933 --> 0:07:26.053 days to get something that was due to get here 0:07:25.693 --> 0:07:31.093 in two And if that's not a productivity failure, then 0:07:31.173 --> 0:07:34.213 I don't know what is. Now. Having got that off 0:07:34.213 --> 0:07:36.453 my chest and I'll say no more about it. We 0:07:36.533 --> 0:07:39.613 will talk about far More Important Things with George Friedman 0:07:39.813 --> 0:07:45.333 in Just a Moment Layton Smith. Leverrix is an antihistamine 0:07:45.373 --> 0:07:49.213 made in Switzerland to the highest quality. Leverix relieves hay 0:07:49.253 --> 0:07:53.133 fever and skin allergies or itchy skin. It's a dual 0:07:53.173 --> 0:07:58.933 action antihistamine and has a unique nasal decongested action. It's 0:07:59.013 --> 0:08:02.493 fast acting for fast relief, and it works in under 0:08:02.533 --> 0:08:06.293 an hour and lasts for over twenty four hours. Leverrix 0:08:06.413 --> 0:08:09.493 is a tiny tablet that unblocks the no deals with 0:08:09.653 --> 0:08:14.173 itchy eyes and stops sneezing. Levericks is an antihistamine made 0:08:14.253 --> 0:08:17.573 in Switzerland to the highest quality. So next time you're 0:08:17.613 --> 0:08:21.333 in need of an effective antihistamine, call into the pharmacy 0:08:21.493 --> 0:08:27.453 and ask for Leverix lv Rix Leverrix and always read 0:08:27.453 --> 0:08:31.013 the label. Take as directed and if symptoms persist, see 0:08:31.053 --> 0:08:45.453 your health professional. Farmer Broker Auckland. George Redman is the 0:08:45.493 --> 0:08:48.573 author of two major books. He's written more, but these 0:08:48.573 --> 0:08:51.053 are the two majors. The Next one hundred Years, that 0:08:51.253 --> 0:08:53.413 was released in two thousand and nine, was a massive 0:08:53.493 --> 0:08:57.373 seller worldwide. The second book, The Storm Before the cam 0:08:57.413 --> 0:09:00.973 America's Discord, The Coming crisis of the twenty twenties and 0:09:01.093 --> 0:09:05.973 the Triumph Beyond was not a failure, but it sold slowly. 0:09:06.253 --> 0:09:09.653 The interesting thing is the interest in that book is 0:09:09.693 --> 0:09:13.093 now picking up a pace, as will be revealed sometime 0:09:13.133 --> 0:09:17.333 in the near future. But nevertheless, the book was as 0:09:17.373 --> 0:09:19.733 I've said many times on the podcast when it's come up, 0:09:20.333 --> 0:09:25.093 the book was released the same day that COVID broke, 0:09:25.493 --> 0:09:29.693 and all American networks wanted to know was about COVID, 0:09:29.893 --> 0:09:33.813 and so George had a series of major interviews with 0:09:33.893 --> 0:09:38.973 television and other media canceled simply because it got replaced 0:09:38.973 --> 0:09:42.053 with COVID, and we all know the damage that COVID did, 0:09:42.333 --> 0:09:46.573 So with that in mind, from geopolitical futures, George Treatment, 0:09:46.653 --> 0:09:50.213 it's great to have you back. I wanted you. I 0:09:50.333 --> 0:09:53.293 wanted you on, particularly because of what's going on in 0:09:53.333 --> 0:09:56.653 this part of the world. But we shall transfer our attention. 0:09:56.813 --> 0:10:00.013 After dealing with the South Pacific to the rest of 0:10:00.053 --> 0:10:03.973 the world and some major issues. The Crook Islands strike 0:10:04.013 --> 0:10:07.413 a deal with China on seabed minerals is a headline. 0:10:07.693 --> 0:10:10.773 Struck a five agreement with China to cooperate in exploring 0:10:10.773 --> 0:10:14.653 and researching the Pacific nations seabed mineral riches. A copy 0:10:14.653 --> 0:10:17.413 of the deal, which is likely to work. Close partner 0:10:17.493 --> 0:10:21.653 and former colonial ruler New Zealand showed it covers working 0:10:21.693 --> 0:10:26.573 together in the exploration and research of seabed mineral resources. 0:10:27.413 --> 0:10:30.093 Now the rest of the detail doesn't matter because it's 0:10:30.133 --> 0:10:34.333 been fully publicized. But for about ten days I think 0:10:35.293 --> 0:10:38.173 maybe even a couple of weeks, we were a bit 0:10:38.213 --> 0:10:41.853 short on information. Now we have most of it. You've 0:10:41.893 --> 0:10:46.933 seen the reports. What is your interpretation of China's entry 0:10:46.973 --> 0:10:48.453 into the South Pacific. 0:10:49.213 --> 0:10:54.253 Well, firstly, remember the global geopolitical situation. The Russians and 0:10:54.293 --> 0:10:58.213 the Americans we'll talk about later are believing much closer. 0:10:58.973 --> 0:11:03.213 Russia is China's enemy. They fought war as being Khrushchev 0:11:03.213 --> 0:11:08.413 and Mao. In fact, when Kissinger went to China, the 0:11:08.493 --> 0:11:12.373 Russians attacked at the Yusiri River on the border. So 0:11:12.413 --> 0:11:15.773 these are not too friendly countries. Communism is an ideology 0:11:16.053 --> 0:11:19.053 sort of bound them together. So now they're looking at 0:11:19.053 --> 0:11:22.693 their western frontier and wondering what in God's name the 0:11:22.773 --> 0:11:26.933 Russians are doing. They're looking at their internal economic problems. 0:11:27.253 --> 0:11:30.973 They just basically the amounts of the private sector was 0:11:31.013 --> 0:11:34.613 going to be the major for striving the economy. But 0:11:34.653 --> 0:11:37.973 it's more important to understand that from their point of view, 0:11:38.093 --> 0:11:41.733 their threat to them comes through the Pacific, and Australia 0:11:41.813 --> 0:11:45.653 is becoming a significant naval power, so they have to 0:11:45.773 --> 0:11:49.053 show their strength. It was really a little, tiny, little 0:11:49.093 --> 0:11:53.533 intervention by two frigate, a destroyer and a support ship. 0:11:54.093 --> 0:11:57.853 This was not even a major approach, and at the 0:11:57.853 --> 0:12:03.013 same time they sent them five fighters down in return 0:12:03.093 --> 0:12:05.893 for them. They either did or didn't notify the New 0:12:06.013 --> 0:12:08.133 Zealand government I don't know, but they didn't have to 0:12:08.453 --> 0:12:12.573 or in international orders they did issue mat Tom's But 0:12:12.653 --> 0:12:18.213 they're coming down there primarily to remind New Zealand that 0:12:18.853 --> 0:12:23.813 New Zealand allowing Australia to place forces there or something 0:12:23.893 --> 0:12:26.573 like that would not be a good idea. I think 0:12:26.573 --> 0:12:30.853 it's a clumsy move, but they're in a difficult position. 0:12:30.933 --> 0:12:33.133 They have to show that they're a major power, that 0:12:33.173 --> 0:12:36.613 they can operate a distance. They didn't show that the 0:12:36.653 --> 0:12:40.293 big boys any of that today. But they're also looking 0:12:40.333 --> 0:12:44.493 down at Australia and the submarines they're receiving and everything 0:12:44.533 --> 0:12:48.053 and are worrying great deal about it. So this was 0:12:48.093 --> 0:12:53.453 a low cost, reversible event. New Zealand got all excited 0:12:53.653 --> 0:12:54.573 and that's what they wanted. 0:12:55.413 --> 0:12:59.013 Well, New Zealand hasn't got as excited as Australia apparently, 0:13:00.133 --> 0:13:00.653 so you're. 0:13:00.533 --> 0:13:03.053 Not excited, you're just frightened. I don't want to use 0:13:03.093 --> 0:13:08.093 the word frightened. It was nothing. Australia is not going 0:13:08.173 --> 0:13:12.893 to be intimidated. But the Chinese are running out of 0:13:12.893 --> 0:13:17.253 options of how to play the international game, and so 0:13:17.453 --> 0:13:19.773 this was a move in that direction, a minor one. 0:13:19.893 --> 0:13:23.533 We're certainly going others coast Chinee. I'd says all the time. 0:13:24.253 --> 0:13:25.613 You haven't been used to it. 0:13:26.093 --> 0:13:29.813 Quite, but you left out the Cook Islands in that description. 0:13:30.173 --> 0:13:32.973 It's not that the Cook Islands are any danger to anybody. 0:13:33.293 --> 0:13:38.013 But elsewhere I've seen a suggestion that the Chinese are 0:13:38.053 --> 0:13:41.173 going to be spending money, some substantial amounts of money 0:13:41.173 --> 0:13:44.093 in the Cook Islands to build ports and other things 0:13:44.853 --> 0:13:47.453 as part of this steal. Now, if that is true, 0:13:47.973 --> 0:13:51.733 and I'm leaving room for maneuvering there. If it's true, 0:13:52.493 --> 0:13:57.933 then surely the visitation of the three ships is a 0:13:58.053 --> 0:14:02.413 warning that the Chinese are involved now with the Cook Islands. 0:14:02.853 --> 0:14:05.933 They are no longer our territory because they're moving in. 0:14:06.573 --> 0:14:09.093 And this is just a little statement of facts, I 0:14:09.093 --> 0:14:11.453 mean to be blunt. To be blunt, the three ship 0:14:11.493 --> 0:14:13.893 Little Crusade is bigger than our navy. 0:14:15.173 --> 0:14:18.293 Well, that's a problem for New Zealand. But you don't 0:14:18.333 --> 0:14:21.293 conduct an assault that the country as large as New Zealand, 0:14:21.613 --> 0:14:24.453 with Australia to your north, you have to pass them, 0:14:24.653 --> 0:14:27.333 and the US seventh Fleet, which is also an Atlantic 0:14:27.373 --> 0:14:29.493 has to come through. So I don't think there's a 0:14:29.533 --> 0:14:33.333 threat to New Zealand security. What it is, however, is 0:14:33.373 --> 0:14:37.853 there's a worldwide search for rare earths. The Ukrainian War 0:14:38.413 --> 0:14:42.693 is now a little about rare earths. If the Cook 0:14:42.693 --> 0:14:46.733 Islands have rare earths, the Chinese wanted to get him first. 0:14:47.453 --> 0:14:50.733 They needed that, so there's an economic reason to be there. 0:14:51.253 --> 0:14:55.213 I don't see a major military reason. They didn't really 0:14:55.573 --> 0:14:58.653 mind shaking up New Zealand a bit to show the 0:14:58.693 --> 0:15:03.413 Americans they have some long range military naval capabilities, which 0:15:03.493 --> 0:15:08.373 is unknown whether they really have it or not. I 0:15:08.373 --> 0:15:13.013 don't think they do. This served a number of purposes, psychological, economic, 0:15:14.413 --> 0:15:17.533 and it showed three ships how to say, a long 0:15:17.573 --> 0:15:18.773 distance from. 0:15:18.613 --> 0:15:22.453 The Australian newspaper. I'm looking at a headline China accused 0:15:22.493 --> 0:15:25.093 US Australia of hyping up live fire drills in the 0:15:25.133 --> 0:15:28.813 South China Sea. But moving on a bit ex Australian 0:15:28.853 --> 0:15:33.853 Prime Minister Tony Abbott over the weekend suggested Australia, the UK, 0:15:34.133 --> 0:15:38.813 Canada and New Zealand should quote become much better at 0:15:38.813 --> 0:15:42.253 offering the US help rather than rail against the only 0:15:42.373 --> 0:15:46.893 leader of the free world currently has following China's posturing. 0:15:47.893 --> 0:15:49.853 Of course, he went on, there is an alternative to 0:15:49.893 --> 0:15:54.253 renewing alliances built on a shared history and valued cherished values, 0:15:54.413 --> 0:15:56.733 cherished in common. And he was talking by the way 0:15:56.773 --> 0:16:00.813 to the Danube Institute Forum in London. Australia caught opt 0:16:00.973 --> 0:16:04.773 to become an economic colony of China. But in that event, 0:16:05.013 --> 0:16:08.093 our paymasters in Beijing would hardly allow us a freedom 0:16:08.493 --> 0:16:12.333 that their own people lack. As last week's life fire 0:16:12.413 --> 0:16:16.693 exercise off our coast shows, Beijing's expectation is that its 0:16:16.773 --> 0:16:20.253 clients tremble and obey. Soon enough, we would find that 0:16:20.293 --> 0:16:24.933 without strength, neither peace nor freedom lasts very long. Now 0:16:25.213 --> 0:16:26.733 is there anything worthy of night in that? 0:16:27.253 --> 0:16:32.533 Well? The Chinese want to desperately show that they have 0:16:32.693 --> 0:16:36.813 not been nerved by what's happening in the rest of 0:16:36.853 --> 0:16:41.133 the world, with their lives or potential lives moving the directions. 0:16:41.813 --> 0:16:46.013 They also want to demonstrate that they have capabilities, and 0:16:46.093 --> 0:16:49.333 they also will take the risk of New Zealand pulling 0:16:49.333 --> 0:16:52.693 closer to the United States, which it should. There's an interest. 0:16:52.933 --> 0:16:55.893 But remember the United States military has a problem with 0:16:55.973 --> 0:17:00.573 New Zealand the expulsion of our naval vessels because they 0:17:00.653 --> 0:17:04.853 might have nuclear weapons on board. Years back, rankles deeply, 0:17:05.173 --> 0:17:08.893 and that will be overcome. That's not an issue. I 0:17:08.973 --> 0:17:13.853 remember then we still mumble about it drinking beer. So 0:17:13.973 --> 0:17:17.213 New Zealand. Australia is one thing in our mind. Now 0:17:18.253 --> 0:17:21.253 New Zealand is another thing. You have this psychological problem. 0:17:21.333 --> 0:17:25.133 It'll be overcome. But certainly New Zealand it has one 0:17:25.333 --> 0:17:31.573 far out gegraphic advantage. If the Chinese managed to occupy 0:17:31.613 --> 0:17:34.813 New Zealand, they could threaten Australia from the north and south. 0:17:35.373 --> 0:17:39.213 But how did the Chinese provide supplies in New Zealand, 0:17:39.293 --> 0:17:42.093 How do they get there, how did they maintain their force? 0:17:42.733 --> 0:17:45.053 So that's why I say it's a wild theory. So 0:17:45.093 --> 0:17:48.973 they may have somebody who has a dream. But I 0:17:49.013 --> 0:17:52.933 think one thing we know New Zealand, with current technologies 0:17:53.013 --> 0:17:57.413 and realities and wealth, cannot pretend that they're the little 0:17:57.493 --> 0:18:01.853 child who is never there. Okay, everybody knows they're there. 0:18:02.093 --> 0:18:06.373 Life is unpredictable. New Zealand's had a luxurious time since 0:18:06.453 --> 0:18:09.973 World War Two. At some point it's going to realize 0:18:10.053 --> 0:18:12.733 that it might be an asset to someone. I don't 0:18:12.733 --> 0:18:17.093 think this is the time, but it will. 0:18:16.013 --> 0:18:19.093 So in the interim. Is there any advantage to the 0:18:19.933 --> 0:18:24.333 Chinese locating themselves in the Cook Islands. Let us just 0:18:24.373 --> 0:18:28.213 suppose that it came to that, and that was not 0:18:28.293 --> 0:18:30.173 part of the deal, but it came as a result 0:18:30.173 --> 0:18:32.653 of it that they were able to that they were 0:18:32.693 --> 0:18:36.373 able to establish a solid base in the Cook Islands. 0:18:36.733 --> 0:18:39.253 Would that be the question is would that be any 0:18:39.293 --> 0:18:40.693 real advantage to them? 0:18:41.653 --> 0:18:44.573 It would be liability because they're far away from the 0:18:44.613 --> 0:18:49.973 Cook Islands. The US Navy can interdict any major operation 0:18:50.133 --> 0:18:53.973 to support Cook Island in the war, and Cook Islands 0:18:54.053 --> 0:18:58.293 wore place and missiles in Guam and other places could 0:18:58.293 --> 0:19:01.693 have operated, so it's a highly vulnerable position. I would 0:19:01.733 --> 0:19:04.573 not base a fleet in there. Plus, building ports is 0:19:04.653 --> 0:19:07.893 quite a job and it takes a long time. The 0:19:08.053 --> 0:19:11.773 Chinese don't have much of a workforce. I would assume 0:19:11.853 --> 0:19:14.453 I don't know Cookland very well, so they would have 0:19:14.493 --> 0:19:18.413 to take workers and send in there. It's too complex 0:19:18.453 --> 0:19:22.253 for a military purpose. Okay, that's not a good place 0:19:22.293 --> 0:19:24.093 to have a port. That's not a good place to 0:19:24.133 --> 0:19:26.973 have an airbase. It's too easily taken out by the 0:19:27.013 --> 0:19:28.213 Australians and Americans. 0:19:29.093 --> 0:19:35.333 One more attempt. The Solomon Islands have done something with 0:19:35.413 --> 0:19:38.853 the Chinese. The Fijians have done something with the Chinese. 0:19:39.373 --> 0:19:43.213 What we could be talking about is is a series 0:19:43.253 --> 0:19:49.533 of island links that would be serviceable, not as many, 0:19:49.773 --> 0:19:50.773 but as one. 0:19:51.493 --> 0:19:54.453 Well. This was the Americans that did the Chinese. They 0:19:55.053 --> 0:20:02.053 have Taiwan. They reversed Philippines relationship with China and hostility 0:20:02.213 --> 0:20:05.773 to the United States, and now have four bases in 0:20:05.813 --> 0:20:10.773 the Philippines, Australia to Papua New Guinea, on a line 0:20:10.813 --> 0:20:15.653 from Anchorage, Alaska to Australia. Every strait that would allow 0:20:15.853 --> 0:20:19.413 Chinese ships to enter the Pacific is practically under the 0:20:19.413 --> 0:20:24.813 control of Australian United States. Remember, ships are very very 0:20:24.893 --> 0:20:28.853 vulnerable to air strikes, missile strikes. It's no longer a 0:20:28.933 --> 0:20:32.453 surface combat, and any Chinese war in that area as 0:20:32.493 --> 0:20:35.893 a naval war, their army is not going to swim. 0:20:36.213 --> 0:20:38.733 So what we did, and this was a couple of 0:20:38.813 --> 0:20:42.093 years ago under Biden, we got the Philippines to flip. 0:20:42.493 --> 0:20:45.533 You got Papu in New Guinea. Now that Chinese would 0:20:45.573 --> 0:20:50.333 love to form another line behind that, all right, and 0:20:50.413 --> 0:20:54.533 now that's the stake. The problem is they're forming a 0:20:54.613 --> 0:20:58.653 line behind our line and putting a lot over our line. 0:20:59.133 --> 0:21:02.693 And you know, this gets real complicated. How deep was 0:21:02.733 --> 0:21:07.293 the Chinese going to put resources into this when it 0:21:07.333 --> 0:21:10.773 could be so completely isolated. We can afford the isolation 0:21:10.893 --> 0:21:12.613 of our force if they put it in, and it 0:21:12.693 --> 0:21:14.933 would be a problem for us. But I think that's 0:21:14.933 --> 0:21:16.013 what the Chinese are trying to do. 0:21:16.093 --> 0:21:21.413 Okay, in associated matters our government is talking now about 0:21:21.933 --> 0:21:26.013 putting I think the term was a substantial increase into defense. 0:21:26.653 --> 0:21:30.813 Now substantial is a relative word, because our defense forces are, 0:21:31.933 --> 0:21:35.213 shall we say, slim at best. Whether or not the 0:21:35.253 --> 0:21:39.173 money that's spent is going to be worthwhile is for 0:21:39.213 --> 0:21:44.813 the future to tell, but it's undoubtedly necessary. Going back 0:21:45.093 --> 0:21:48.053 to the old approach, and that is that you mightn't 0:21:48.053 --> 0:21:50.133 be the biggest team in the force. But you've got 0:21:50.133 --> 0:21:53.493 to you've got to show your flag, and New Zealand 0:21:53.533 --> 0:21:56.373 has been failing and doing that recent times. 0:21:56.893 --> 0:21:59.733 To show your part of the team. That's where New 0:21:59.813 --> 0:22:00.853 Jill has been failing at. 0:22:01.013 --> 0:22:03.853 Yes, didn't I say Didn't I say that differently? 0:22:04.893 --> 0:22:06.853 You said it somewhat differently, but I said it better. 0:22:06.893 --> 0:22:12.373 Don't worry. Okay, Look, the United States has no quarrel 0:22:12.453 --> 0:22:15.093 really with New Zealand, just some old soldiers like me 0:22:15.893 --> 0:22:19.973 that could be prepared. New Zealand should increase its defense budget, 0:22:19.973 --> 0:22:23.173 but it cannot build it enough to take care of 0:22:23.293 --> 0:22:26.333 all the potential threats it faces. It has to be 0:22:26.413 --> 0:22:30.453 part of an alliance because no one is bound to 0:22:30.493 --> 0:22:35.053 come to New Zealand's help. It would come to help, 0:22:35.093 --> 0:22:39.653 but New Zealand must now join into the reality that 0:22:39.773 --> 0:22:42.893 it's a prize. It's a very difficult prize to take 0:22:43.373 --> 0:22:46.413 and New Zealand probably can't simply defend itself against the 0:22:46.493 --> 0:22:50.013 power strong enough to come down there. So it needs 0:22:50.053 --> 0:22:52.293 to come back into a relationship with the United States. 0:22:53.173 --> 0:22:55.933 It needs to come into a relationship with Australia in 0:22:56.053 --> 0:22:59.373 military relationship. I'll say something that the New Zealanders don't 0:22:59.373 --> 0:23:03.053 want to hear Australia and New Zealand have a coordinated military. 0:23:03.093 --> 0:23:09.933 Now they are, they're dominating their areas together. New Zealand 0:23:10.013 --> 0:23:12.933 has to join that. It's in five eyes, which will 0:23:12.973 --> 0:23:15.773 tell them when they're going to get hit. But they 0:23:15.893 --> 0:23:18.413 must be in a position where the only force that 0:23:18.453 --> 0:23:21.693 can come to truly defend them in the case of trouble, 0:23:21.693 --> 0:23:24.933 which I don't see coming, but I may be wrong. 0:23:25.653 --> 0:23:28.333 You must enter into liances. You're not strong enough to 0:23:29.013 --> 0:23:29.733 do it yourself. 0:23:30.093 --> 0:23:33.053 I think we've always known that, but of more recent 0:23:33.093 --> 0:23:37.413 times things of things have changed, in some cases quite substantially. 0:23:38.173 --> 0:23:41.333 The other aspect to it is trade, of course, and 0:23:41.373 --> 0:23:45.413 the biggest the biggest threat I believe is rather than military, 0:23:45.613 --> 0:23:50.173 is trading routes, because as has been pointed out before 0:23:50.213 --> 0:23:54.373 by you by yourself, in fact, they're very easily disrupted 0:23:55.173 --> 0:23:56.453 some distance from our shore. 0:23:56.973 --> 0:23:59.533 Well. World War two, in both the I think in 0:23:59.573 --> 0:24:03.533 the Pacific, were naval wars. If the United States had 0:24:03.573 --> 0:24:06.893 lost control of the Atlantic, the Germans would have won 0:24:07.853 --> 0:24:11.453 if Thejapanese which tried to take control of the Pacific one. 0:24:12.653 --> 0:24:17.213 So these are naval battles jumping from island to island 0:24:17.373 --> 0:24:20.853 was to build air bases and some ports, but the 0:24:20.933 --> 0:24:26.613 real battle was naval and this is the thing that 0:24:26.613 --> 0:24:29.093 the Chinese understand that are trying to catch up with. 0:24:29.453 --> 0:24:32.613 They have a strong army, but who We're not going 0:24:32.613 --> 0:24:36.773 to swim with an army over there. So your problem 0:24:36.893 --> 0:24:39.573 is you're in the ocean. Wars are going to be 0:24:39.613 --> 0:24:44.013 fought in the oceans, and in some evolution, not the 0:24:44.053 --> 0:24:48.493 current one, it may be a prize. So the contingency 0:24:48.653 --> 0:24:53.253 for New Zealand is to plan for the improbable. And 0:24:53.293 --> 0:24:57.173 that's also always politically painful because you have to spend 0:24:57.213 --> 0:25:02.493 a lot of money building assets for an improbable event 0:25:03.813 --> 0:25:07.453 and getting yourself involved with the alliances that will ask 0:25:07.493 --> 0:25:11.013 you for separate agreements send your forces here or there. 0:25:11.453 --> 0:25:14.013 So probably the lions for New Zealand is that they 0:25:14.173 --> 0:25:18.293 have obligations to it. Right now, New Zealand doesn't have obligations, 0:25:19.533 --> 0:25:22.773 really has friends who are got are do something anyway, 0:25:23.293 --> 0:25:27.253 and is in a beautiful geographic position. The Chinese now 0:25:27.333 --> 0:25:30.973 want to tell you you're not you're not we can 0:25:31.013 --> 0:25:34.693 come and get you. Well that's not true, but it's 0:25:34.693 --> 0:25:37.533 a good move and the Chinese don't have many good 0:25:37.573 --> 0:25:38.373 moves at this point. 0:25:39.773 --> 0:25:44.133