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Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks ed B.

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Speaker 1: Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 1: It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all

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Speaker 1: the information, all the debates of.

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Speaker 2: The sis, now.

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Speaker 1: The Leighton Smith Podcast powered by News Talks ed B.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to podcasts two seventy three for February twenty six,

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. For those unfamiliar with George Friedman, albeit

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Speaker 2: probably few in number, George has a doctorate and a

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Speaker 2: professorship in his past. He has experience in areas involving defense,

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Speaker 2: and he started two companies Stratford, followed by his present organization,

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Speaker 2: Geopolitical Futures, and of course there are a number of books.

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Speaker 2: My first meeting with him was in nineteen eighty six,

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Speaker 2: and while we all may have differences of opinion, his

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Speaker 2: is worth assessing. Now. We spent most of the first half,

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Speaker 2: if not all of it, on China, New Zealand and

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Speaker 2: the Cook Islands, after which we moved on to the

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Speaker 2: Middle East, to Russia and Ukraine, and a couple of

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Speaker 2: other matters, including on my dad, Donald Trump's IQ. But

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Speaker 2: first there are major issues concerning most of the planet

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Speaker 2: Some are local, others are regional, others are international. New

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Speaker 2: Zealand is not in good shape on many fronts, not

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Speaker 2: helped by political obfuscation. The adern failure speaks for itself.

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Speaker 2: But there's still under present leadership issues being mishandled, including

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Speaker 2: medical issues, climate absurdities, productivity restraints. And I could draw

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Speaker 2: up quite a list. By the way, speaking of productivity,

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Speaker 2: I have an example of that, a personal one in

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Speaker 2: just a moment. Although it's not my intention today to

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Speaker 2: turn climate change issues into a major I do want

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Speaker 2: to cover off a couple of things. Want to quote

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Speaker 2: you something from Roger Scrutin's Green Philosophy, How to Think

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Speaker 2: Seriously About the Planet. In ninety sixty eight, Paul Erlick

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Speaker 2: initiated a worldwide movement of anxiety with his book The

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Speaker 2: Population Bomb, which predicted that global overpopulation would cause massive

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Speaker 2: hamines as early as the seventies. Demographic studies showing that

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Speaker 2: birth rate declines as wealth increases were largely ignored in

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Speaker 2: the ensuing panic, and it only now that the truth

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Speaker 2: is widely accepted that famines are, for the most part

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Speaker 2: political phenomena, the result of military conflict of state control

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Speaker 2: of the food economy, or, as in the Soviet Union,

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Speaker 2: a policy of genocide. Again, in nineteen seventy two, a

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Speaker 2: number of scientists began to predict a catastrophic cooling of

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Speaker 2: the Earth, and in no time the prediction had become

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Speaker 2: a widespread scare. Major cooling, widely considered to be inevitable.

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Speaker 2: Was The New York Times headline and science digest of

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Speaker 2: nineteen seventy three told its readers to brace themselves for

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Speaker 2: another ice age. The Cooling by the American science writer

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Speaker 2: Loull Ponti, published in nineteen seventy six, attempted to summarize

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Speaker 2: the evidence and to prepare us for the worst, informing

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Speaker 2: its readers that the cooling has already killed hundreds of

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Speaker 2: thousands of people in poor nations, and in their entertaining

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Speaker 2: book on mass Panics, Scared to Death, Christopher Booker and

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Speaker 2: Richard North enjoy pointing out that many of those who

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Speaker 2: had devoted their energies to warning the world against global

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Speaker 2: cooling within a year or two spreading alarms about global

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Speaker 2: warming instead. Such examples illustrates something that all wise people know,

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Speaker 2: which is that the truth of a proposition is often

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Speaker 2: the least important among the many motives for believing it.

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Speaker 2: Panics arise where there is an interest in promoting them,

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Speaker 2: and they pass from person to person with the irresistible

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Speaker 2: force of a contagious disease. So let me turn to

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Speaker 2: a couple of current headlines verse from the Epic Times.

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Speaker 2: The world is not going to reach NED zero by

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Speaker 2: twenty fifty. Vaklev Schmil is one of the leading thinkers

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Speaker 2: on energy and environment. Last year, the Distinguished Professor Emeritus

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Speaker 2: in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Manitoba

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Speaker 2: pend an extensive report for the Fraser Institute, a libertarian

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Speaker 2: conservative Canadian public policy think tank. In it, he outlined

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Speaker 2: numerous reasons why NED zero by twenty fifty is highly unlikely,

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Speaker 2: and he began with the glaring fact despite international agreements,

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Speaker 2: government spending and regulations, and technological advancements, global fossil fuel

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Speaker 2: consumption surge by fifty five percent between nineteen ninety seven

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Speaker 2: and twenty twenty three. A second headline, Trump policy will

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Speaker 2: embolden developing world to reject climate agenda, which they're already

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Speaker 2: doing anyway, It'll just give them more weight. And I'm

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Speaker 2: talking countries like Nigeria, West of Africa probably, and the

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Speaker 2: fact that China, India and other countries are ignoring totally

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Speaker 2: and building coal fired power plants by the dozen. And

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Speaker 2: yet here in New Zealand we have a government and

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Speaker 2: a Minister for climate change who was introduced an approach

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Speaker 2: that is even worse than the adern administration had put

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Speaker 2: in place. How idiotic is that? And then there's the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister who says that anybody in the twenty first

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Speaker 2: century who doesn't believe that climate change is man made

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Speaker 2: is an idiot. I think we should turn the pointer

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Speaker 2: around one hundred and eighty degrees. And as for any

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Speaker 2: comment that goes along the lines of we have to

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Speaker 2: do our little bit for the world, I cannot think

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Speaker 2: of a more insane comment to be making at this

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Speaker 2: particular moment. Now, as for my example of productivity failure,

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Speaker 2: it goes like this. On the nineteenth of the month February,

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Speaker 2: I ordered a book. Now, I'd search the internet to

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Speaker 2: find out how quickly I could get my hands on it,

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Speaker 2: because I wanted it fairly urgently, And I looked at

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Speaker 2: Amazon Australia. Then We're going to take a week or so,

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Speaker 2: a couple of other places, and I ended up with

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Speaker 2: Mighty Ape and Mighty Ape were going to get it

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Speaker 2: to me by this was the nineteenth. Mighty eight was

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Speaker 2: going to get it to me by the twenty first,

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Speaker 2: So it was a case of forty eight hours or

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Speaker 2: even less, depending on what time had got here. However,

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Speaker 2: come the day, which was the twenty first of February,

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Speaker 2: it didn't turn up. So I went and checked, and

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Speaker 2: I found the movements the book had made, and it

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Speaker 2: had gone from the Apernall's shore to East Tammocke, for

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Speaker 2: goodness sake, the Apernalls Shore to East Tammockee on the

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Speaker 2: other side of the city by some considerable margin, and

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Speaker 2: there it stayed from the nineteenth to the twenty fifth

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Speaker 2: when it was delivered. So for something that should have

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Speaker 2: taken two days, it took six days or five if

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Speaker 2: you want, I don't mind which.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I don't blame Mighty Ape for it, but I certainly

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Speaker 2: hold the New Zealand Post to account for taking six

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Speaker 2: days to get something that was due to get here

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Speaker 2: in two And if that's not a productivity failure, then

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Speaker 2: I don't know what is. Now. Having got that off

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Speaker 2: my chest and I'll say no more about it. We

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Speaker 2: will talk about far More Important Things with George Friedman

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Speaker 2: in Just a Moment Layton Smith. Leverrix is an antihistamine

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Speaker 2: made in Switzerland to the highest quality. Leverix relieves hay

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Speaker 2: fever and skin allergies or itchy skin. It's a dual

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Speaker 2: action antihistamine and has a unique nasal decongested action. It's

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Speaker 2: fast acting for fast relief, and it works in under

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Speaker 2: an hour and lasts for over twenty four hours. Leverrix

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Speaker 2: is a tiny tablet that unblocks the no deals with

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Speaker 2: itchy eyes and stops sneezing. Levericks is an antihistamine made

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Speaker 2: in Switzerland to the highest quality. So next time you're

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Speaker 2: in need of an effective antihistamine, call into the pharmacy

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Speaker 2: and ask for Leverix lv Rix Leverrix and always read

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Speaker 2: the label. Take as directed and if symptoms persist, see

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Speaker 2: your health professional. Farmer Broker Auckland. George Redman is the

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Speaker 2: author of two major books. He's written more, but these

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Speaker 2: are the two majors. The Next one hundred Years, that

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Speaker 2: was released in two thousand and nine, was a massive

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Speaker 2: seller worldwide. The second book, The Storm Before the cam

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Speaker 2: America's Discord, The Coming crisis of the twenty twenties and

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Speaker 2: the Triumph Beyond was not a failure, but it sold slowly.

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Speaker 2: The interesting thing is the interest in that book is

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Speaker 2: now picking up a pace, as will be revealed sometime

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Speaker 2: in the near future. But nevertheless, the book was as

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Speaker 2: I've said many times on the podcast when it's come up,

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Speaker 2: the book was released the same day that COVID broke,

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Speaker 2: and all American networks wanted to know was about COVID,

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Speaker 2: and so George had a series of major interviews with

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Speaker 2: television and other media canceled simply because it got replaced

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Speaker 2: with COVID, and we all know the damage that COVID did,

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Speaker 2: So with that in mind, from geopolitical futures, George Treatment,

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Speaker 2: it's great to have you back. I wanted you. I

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Speaker 2: wanted you on, particularly because of what's going on in

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Speaker 2: this part of the world. But we shall transfer our attention.

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Speaker 2: After dealing with the South Pacific to the rest of

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Speaker 2: the world and some major issues. The Crook Islands strike

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Speaker 2: a deal with China on seabed minerals is a headline.

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Speaker 2: Struck a five agreement with China to cooperate in exploring

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Speaker 2: and researching the Pacific nations seabed mineral riches. A copy

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Speaker 2: of the deal, which is likely to work. Close partner

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Speaker 2: and former colonial ruler New Zealand showed it covers working

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Speaker 2: together in the exploration and research of seabed mineral resources.

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Speaker 2: Now the rest of the detail doesn't matter because it's

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Speaker 2: been fully publicized. But for about ten days I think

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Speaker 2: maybe even a couple of weeks, we were a bit

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Speaker 2: short on information. Now we have most of it. You've

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Speaker 2: seen the reports. What is your interpretation of China's entry

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Speaker 2: into the South Pacific.

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Speaker 3: Well, firstly, remember the global geopolitical situation. The Russians and

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Speaker 3: the Americans we'll talk about later are believing much closer.

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Speaker 3: Russia is China's enemy. They fought war as being Khrushchev

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Speaker 3: and Mao. In fact, when Kissinger went to China, the

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Speaker 3: Russians attacked at the Yusiri River on the border. So

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Speaker 3: these are not too friendly countries. Communism is an ideology

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Speaker 3: sort of bound them together. So now they're looking at

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Speaker 3: their western frontier and wondering what in God's name the

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Speaker 3: Russians are doing. They're looking at their internal economic problems.

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Speaker 3: They just basically the amounts of the private sector was

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Speaker 3: going to be the major for striving the economy. But

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Speaker 3: it's more important to understand that from their point of view,

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Speaker 3: their threat to them comes through the Pacific, and Australia

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Speaker 3: is becoming a significant naval power, so they have to

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Speaker 3: show their strength. It was really a little, tiny, little

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Speaker 3: intervention by two frigate, a destroyer and a support ship.

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Speaker 3: This was not even a major approach, and at the

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Speaker 3: same time they sent them five fighters down in return

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Speaker 3: for them. They either did or didn't notify the New

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Speaker 3: Zealand government I don't know, but they didn't have to

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Speaker 3: or in international orders they did issue mat Tom's But

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Speaker 3: they're coming down there primarily to remind New Zealand that

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Speaker 3: New Zealand allowing Australia to place forces there or something

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Speaker 3: like that would not be a good idea. I think

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Speaker 3: it's a clumsy move, but they're in a difficult position.

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Speaker 3: They have to show that they're a major power, that

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Speaker 3: they can operate a distance. They didn't show that the

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Speaker 3: big boys any of that today. But they're also looking

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Speaker 3: down at Australia and the submarines they're receiving and everything

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Speaker 3: and are worrying great deal about it. So this was

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Speaker 3: a low cost, reversible event. New Zealand got all excited

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Speaker 3: and that's what they wanted.

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Speaker 2: Well, New Zealand hasn't got as excited as Australia apparently,

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Speaker 2: so you're.

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Speaker 3: Not excited, you're just frightened. I don't want to use

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Speaker 3: the word frightened. It was nothing. Australia is not going

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Speaker 3: to be intimidated. But the Chinese are running out of

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Speaker 3: options of how to play the international game, and so

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Speaker 3: this was a move in that direction, a minor one.

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Speaker 3: We're certainly going others coast Chinee. I'd says all the time.

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Speaker 3: You haven't been used to it.

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Speaker 2: Quite, but you left out the Cook Islands in that description.

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Speaker 2: It's not that the Cook Islands are any danger to anybody.

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Speaker 2: But elsewhere I've seen a suggestion that the Chinese are

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Speaker 2: going to be spending money, some substantial amounts of money

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Speaker 2: in the Cook Islands to build ports and other things

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Speaker 2: as part of this steal. Now, if that is true,

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Speaker 2: and I'm leaving room for maneuvering there. If it's true,

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Speaker 2: then surely the visitation of the three ships is a

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Speaker 2: warning that the Chinese are involved now with the Cook Islands.

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Speaker 2: They are no longer our territory because they're moving in.

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Speaker 2: And this is just a little statement of facts, I

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Speaker 2: mean to be blunt. To be blunt, the three ship

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Speaker 2: Little Crusade is bigger than our navy.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's a problem for New Zealand. But you don't

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Speaker 3: conduct an assault that the country as large as New Zealand,

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Speaker 3: with Australia to your north, you have to pass them,

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Speaker 3: and the US seventh Fleet, which is also an Atlantic

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Speaker 3: has to come through. So I don't think there's a

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Speaker 3: threat to New Zealand security. What it is, however, is

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Speaker 3: there's a worldwide search for rare earths. The Ukrainian War

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Speaker 3: is now a little about rare earths. If the Cook

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Speaker 3: Islands have rare earths, the Chinese wanted to get him first.

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Speaker 3: They needed that, so there's an economic reason to be there.

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Speaker 3: I don't see a major military reason. They didn't really

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Speaker 3: mind shaking up New Zealand a bit to show the

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Speaker 3: Americans they have some long range military naval capabilities, which

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Speaker 3: is unknown whether they really have it or not. I

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Speaker 3: don't think they do. This served a number of purposes, psychological, economic,

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Speaker 3: and it showed three ships how to say, a long

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Speaker 3: distance from.

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Speaker 2: The Australian newspaper. I'm looking at a headline China accused

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Speaker 2: US Australia of hyping up live fire drills in the

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Speaker 2: South China Sea. But moving on a bit ex Australian

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Tony Abbott over the weekend suggested Australia, the UK,

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Speaker 2: Canada and New Zealand should quote become much better at

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Speaker 2: offering the US help rather than rail against the only

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Speaker 2: leader of the free world currently has following China's posturing.

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Speaker 2: Of course, he went on, there is an alternative to

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Speaker 2: renewing alliances built on a shared history and valued cherished values,

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Speaker 2: cherished in common. And he was talking by the way

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Speaker 2: to the Danube Institute Forum in London. Australia caught opt

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Speaker 2: to become an economic colony of China. But in that event,

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Speaker 2: our paymasters in Beijing would hardly allow us a freedom

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Speaker 2: that their own people lack. As last week's life fire

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Speaker 2: exercise off our coast shows, Beijing's expectation is that its

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Speaker 2: clients tremble and obey. Soon enough, we would find that

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Speaker 2: without strength, neither peace nor freedom lasts very long. Now

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Speaker 2: is there anything worthy of night in that?

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Speaker 3: Well? The Chinese want to desperately show that they have

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Speaker 3: not been nerved by what's happening in the rest of

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Speaker 3: the world, with their lives or potential lives moving the directions.

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Speaker 3: They also want to demonstrate that they have capabilities, and

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Speaker 3: they also will take the risk of New Zealand pulling

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Speaker 3: closer to the United States, which it should. There's an interest.

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Speaker 3: But remember the United States military has a problem with

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Speaker 3: New Zealand the expulsion of our naval vessels because they

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Speaker 3: might have nuclear weapons on board. Years back, rankles deeply,

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Speaker 3: and that will be overcome. That's not an issue. I

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Speaker 3: remember then we still mumble about it drinking beer. So

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Speaker 3: New Zealand. Australia is one thing in our mind. Now

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Speaker 3: New Zealand is another thing. You have this psychological problem.

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Speaker 3: It'll be overcome. But certainly New Zealand it has one

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Speaker 3: far out gegraphic advantage. If the Chinese managed to occupy

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Speaker 3: New Zealand, they could threaten Australia from the north and south.

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Speaker 3: But how did the Chinese provide supplies in New Zealand,

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Speaker 3: How do they get there, how did they maintain their force?

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Speaker 3: So that's why I say it's a wild theory. So

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Speaker 3: they may have somebody who has a dream. But I

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Speaker 3: think one thing we know New Zealand, with current technologies

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Speaker 3: and realities and wealth, cannot pretend that they're the little

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Speaker 3: child who is never there. Okay, everybody knows they're there.

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Speaker 3: Life is unpredictable. New Zealand's had a luxurious time since

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Speaker 3: World War Two. At some point it's going to realize

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Speaker 3: that it might be an asset to someone. I don't

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Speaker 3: think this is the time, but it will.

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Speaker 2: So in the interim. Is there any advantage to the

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Speaker 2: Chinese locating themselves in the Cook Islands. Let us just

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Speaker 2: suppose that it came to that, and that was not

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Speaker 2: part of the deal, but it came as a result

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Speaker 2: of it that they were able to that they were

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Speaker 2: able to establish a solid base in the Cook Islands.

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Speaker 2: Would that be the question is would that be any

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Speaker 2: real advantage to them?

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Speaker 3: It would be liability because they're far away from the

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Speaker 3: Cook Islands. The US Navy can interdict any major operation

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Speaker 3: to support Cook Island in the war, and Cook Islands

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Speaker 3: wore place and missiles in Guam and other places could

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Speaker 3: have operated, so it's a highly vulnerable position. I would

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Speaker 3: not base a fleet in there. Plus, building ports is

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Speaker 3: quite a job and it takes a long time. The

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Speaker 3: Chinese don't have much of a workforce. I would assume

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Speaker 3: I don't know Cookland very well, so they would have

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Speaker 3: to take workers and send in there. It's too complex

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Speaker 3: for a military purpose. Okay, that's not a good place

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Speaker 3: to have a port. That's not a good place to

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Speaker 3: have an airbase. It's too easily taken out by the

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Speaker 3: Australians and Americans.

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Speaker 2: One more attempt. The Solomon Islands have done something with

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Speaker 2: the Chinese. The Fijians have done something with the Chinese.

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Speaker 2: What we could be talking about is is a series

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Speaker 2: of island links that would be serviceable, not as many,

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Speaker 2: but as one.

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Speaker 3: Well. This was the Americans that did the Chinese. They

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Speaker 3: have Taiwan. They reversed Philippines relationship with China and hostility

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Speaker 3: to the United States, and now have four bases in

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Speaker 3: the Philippines, Australia to Papua New Guinea, on a line

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Speaker 3: from Anchorage, Alaska to Australia. Every strait that would allow

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Speaker 3: Chinese ships to enter the Pacific is practically under the

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Speaker 3: control of Australian United States. Remember, ships are very very

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Speaker 3: vulnerable to air strikes, missile strikes. It's no longer a

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Speaker 3: surface combat, and any Chinese war in that area as

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Speaker 3: a naval war, their army is not going to swim.

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Speaker 3: So what we did, and this was a couple of

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Speaker 3: years ago under Biden, we got the Philippines to flip.

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Speaker 3: You got Papu in New Guinea. Now that Chinese would

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Speaker 3: love to form another line behind that, all right, and

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Speaker 3: now that's the stake. The problem is they're forming a

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Speaker 3: line behind our line and putting a lot over our line.

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Speaker 3: And you know, this gets real complicated. How deep was

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Speaker 3: the Chinese going to put resources into this when it

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Speaker 3: could be so completely isolated. We can afford the isolation

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Speaker 3: of our force if they put it in, and it

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Speaker 3: would be a problem for us. But I think that's

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Speaker 3: what the Chinese are trying to do.

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Speaker 2: Okay, in associated matters our government is talking now about

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Speaker 2: putting I think the term was a substantial increase into defense.

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Speaker 2: Now substantial is a relative word, because our defense forces are,

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Speaker 2: shall we say, slim at best. Whether or not the

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Speaker 2: money that's spent is going to be worthwhile is for

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Speaker 2: the future to tell, but it's undoubtedly necessary. Going back

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Speaker 2: to the old approach, and that is that you mightn't

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Speaker 2: be the biggest team in the force. But you've got

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Speaker 2: to you've got to show your flag, and New Zealand

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Speaker 2: has been failing and doing that recent times.

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Speaker 3: To show your part of the team. That's where New

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Speaker 3: Jill has been failing at.

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Speaker 2: Yes, didn't I say Didn't I say that differently?

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Speaker 3: You said it somewhat differently, but I said it better.

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Speaker 3: Don't worry. Okay, Look, the United States has no quarrel

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Speaker 3: really with New Zealand, just some old soldiers like me

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Speaker 3: that could be prepared. New Zealand should increase its defense budget,

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Speaker 3: but it cannot build it enough to take care of

349
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Speaker 3: all the potential threats it faces. It has to be

350
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Speaker 3: part of an alliance because no one is bound to

351
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Speaker 3: come to New Zealand's help. It would come to help,

352
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Speaker 3: but New Zealand must now join into the reality that

353
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Speaker 3: it's a prize. It's a very difficult prize to take

354
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Speaker 3: and New Zealand probably can't simply defend itself against the

355
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Speaker 3: power strong enough to come down there. So it needs

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Speaker 3: to come back into a relationship with the United States.

357
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Speaker 3: It needs to come into a relationship with Australia in

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Speaker 3: military relationship. I'll say something that the New Zealanders don't

359
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Speaker 3: want to hear Australia and New Zealand have a coordinated military.

360
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Speaker 3: Now they are, they're dominating their areas together. New Zealand

361
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Speaker 3: has to join that. It's in five eyes, which will

362
00:23:12,973 --> 00:23:15,773
Speaker 3: tell them when they're going to get hit. But they

363
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Speaker 3: must be in a position where the only force that

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Speaker 3: can come to truly defend them in the case of trouble,

365
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Speaker 3: which I don't see coming, but I may be wrong.

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Speaker 3: You must enter into liances. You're not strong enough to

367
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Speaker 3: do it yourself.

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Speaker 2: I think we've always known that, but of more recent

369
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Speaker 2: times things of things have changed, in some cases quite substantially.

370
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Speaker 2: The other aspect to it is trade, of course, and

371
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Speaker 2: the biggest the biggest threat I believe is rather than military,

372
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Speaker 2: is trading routes, because as has been pointed out before

373
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Speaker 2: by you by yourself, in fact, they're very easily disrupted

374
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Speaker 2: some distance from our shore.

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Speaker 3: Well. World War two, in both the I think in

376
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Speaker 3: the Pacific, were naval wars. If the United States had

377
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Speaker 3: lost control of the Atlantic, the Germans would have won

378
00:24:07,853 --> 00:24:11,453
Speaker 3: if Thejapanese which tried to take control of the Pacific one.

379
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Speaker 3: So these are naval battles jumping from island to island

380
00:24:17,373 --> 00:24:20,853
Speaker 3: was to build air bases and some ports, but the

381
00:24:20,933 --> 00:24:26,613
Speaker 3: real battle was naval and this is the thing that

382
00:24:26,613 --> 00:24:29,093
Speaker 3: the Chinese understand that are trying to catch up with.

383
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Speaker 3: They have a strong army, but who We're not going

384
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Speaker 3: to swim with an army over there. So your problem

385
00:24:36,893 --> 00:24:39,573
Speaker 3: is you're in the ocean. Wars are going to be

386
00:24:39,613 --> 00:24:44,013
Speaker 3: fought in the oceans, and in some evolution, not the

387
00:24:44,053 --> 00:24:48,493
Speaker 3: current one, it may be a prize. So the contingency

388
00:24:48,653 --> 00:24:53,253
Speaker 3: for New Zealand is to plan for the improbable. And

389
00:24:53,293 --> 00:24:57,173
Speaker 3: that's also always politically painful because you have to spend

390
00:24:57,213 --> 00:25:02,493
Speaker 3: a lot of money building assets for an improbable event

391
00:25:03,813 --> 00:25:07,453
Speaker 3: and getting yourself involved with the alliances that will ask

392
00:25:07,493 --> 00:25:11,013
Speaker 3: you for separate agreements send your forces here or there.

393
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Speaker 3: So probably the lions for New Zealand is that they

394
00:25:14,173 --> 00:25:18,293
Speaker 3: have obligations to it. Right now, New Zealand doesn't have obligations,

395
00:25:19,533 --> 00:25:22,773
Speaker 3: really has friends who are got are do something anyway,

396
00:25:23,293 --> 00:25:27,253
Speaker 3: and is in a beautiful geographic position. The Chinese now

397
00:25:27,333 --> 00:25:30,973
Speaker 3: want to tell you you're not you're not we can

398
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Speaker 3: come and get you. Well that's not true, but it's

399
00:25:34,693 --> 00:25:37,533
Speaker 3: a good move and the Chinese don't have many good

400
00:25:37,573 --> 00:25:38,373
Speaker 3: moves at this point.

401
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Speaker 2: So the belief is by many that the Chinese have

402
00:25:44,293 --> 00:25:48,813
Speaker 2: now exceeded the American's capacity in naval force.

403
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Speaker 3: Is that correct, Well, I'll use an unkind word preposters.

404
00:25:55,093 --> 00:25:59,013
Speaker 3: The Chinese problem is they're ports. They're all on the

405
00:25:59,093 --> 00:26:03,333
Speaker 3: eastern shore of China, and those ports are carefully watched

406
00:26:03,333 --> 00:26:08,613
Speaker 3: by American satellites and American submarines are out there, so

407
00:26:08,653 --> 00:26:11,693
Speaker 3: the fleet can't flom in taiw War, which is the

408
00:26:11,733 --> 00:26:14,773
Speaker 3: first battle we'll start when the Chinese move out of

409
00:26:14,813 --> 00:26:20,253
Speaker 3: their ports. The reason they didn't invade Taiwan is they can't.

410
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Speaker 3: It takes ten to twelve hours for a landing craft

411
00:26:24,813 --> 00:26:28,653
Speaker 3: to go from China to Taiwan, a longer time to

412
00:26:28,653 --> 00:26:32,773
Speaker 3: build up the force. Our satellites will see them. US

413
00:26:32,853 --> 00:26:36,253
Speaker 3: submarines are in a position and missiles in Guam to

414
00:26:36,333 --> 00:26:40,893
Speaker 3: take out that force militarily, they don't have the power.

415
00:26:41,373 --> 00:26:44,693
Speaker 3: So when you talk about the power of navies or anything,

416
00:26:45,133 --> 00:26:47,293
Speaker 3: you have to think about the geography they exist in.

417
00:26:48,293 --> 00:26:53,013
Speaker 3: The Chinese naval geography, its sports are terribly vulnerable positions.

418
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Speaker 3: They can be closed very easily, just closed over the

419
00:26:56,413 --> 00:26:59,573
Speaker 3: mines and make it very difficult to get let them

420
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Speaker 3: get out. So when they should take Taiwan in their mind,

421
00:27:04,653 --> 00:27:09,813
Speaker 3: but they can't risk it. So you don't count ships.

422
00:27:10,813 --> 00:27:14,293
Speaker 3: You count the capabilities of the ships, the experience of

423
00:27:14,333 --> 00:27:18,973
Speaker 3: the fleet, and the geography, in this case, the homeland

424
00:27:19,013 --> 00:27:23,933
Speaker 3: geography in which they live. The Chinese are strategically we

425
00:27:24,133 --> 00:27:27,133
Speaker 3: physician and this is one of the points I'd like

426
00:27:27,173 --> 00:27:30,213
Speaker 3: to make for New Zealand. You can build a force,

427
00:27:30,293 --> 00:27:33,133
Speaker 3: but you have to have a national strategy and it

428
00:27:33,293 --> 00:27:36,253
Speaker 3: really has to think through not just as political strategy,

429
00:27:36,613 --> 00:27:38,653
Speaker 3: not just how to train this force, but what its

430
00:27:38,693 --> 00:27:42,333
Speaker 3: mission is. And this is what I think is going

431
00:27:42,373 --> 00:27:46,053
Speaker 3: to be the problem. So in dealing with the Chinese,

432
00:27:46,613 --> 00:27:49,973
Speaker 3: it's not simply a defensive force, but it has to

433
00:27:50,013 --> 00:27:55,293
Speaker 3: have linkages into alliances. But when you speak of naval power,

434
00:27:55,613 --> 00:28:01,173
Speaker 3: things like port security capability, interdiction, intelligence capability, these are

435
00:28:01,413 --> 00:28:06,133
Speaker 3: extremely important things. The navies at this point on any

436
00:28:06,253 --> 00:28:09,573
Speaker 3: continental basis are the key and the Chinese I am

437
00:28:09,613 --> 00:28:12,373
Speaker 3: trying very hard to do this. They would love to

438
00:28:12,413 --> 00:28:15,613
Speaker 3: have ports somewhere else, but the problem is how do

439
00:28:15,653 --> 00:28:18,213
Speaker 3: you supply the ports with what they need? So the

440
00:28:18,293 --> 00:28:21,773
Speaker 3: US has the advantage of inddiction of the seas. And

441
00:28:21,973 --> 00:28:25,213
Speaker 3: even if they had a larger navy than we have,

442
00:28:25,933 --> 00:28:29,453
Speaker 3: which they don't. They have ships, but that's not necessarily

443
00:28:29,493 --> 00:28:32,773
Speaker 3: a navy. Even if they had it, they would be

444
00:28:32,773 --> 00:28:39,173
Speaker 3: attacked by missiles, not fleets. Naval warfare now is missile

445
00:28:39,213 --> 00:28:42,253
Speaker 3: warfare against ships, not ships against ships.

446
00:28:42,533 --> 00:28:46,093
Speaker 2: I was waiting patiently for you to pause before I

447
00:28:46,333 --> 00:28:50,933
Speaker 2: mentioned that precise thing which would give would it not

448
00:28:51,413 --> 00:28:55,893
Speaker 2: the Chinese maneuvering room via space to take care of

449
00:28:56,813 --> 00:28:59,333
Speaker 2: any issues that they wanted to deal with in anywhere

450
00:28:59,333 --> 00:28:59,773
Speaker 2: in the world.

451
00:29:00,893 --> 00:29:02,933
Speaker 3: Well, as a matter of fact, I'm just writing a

452
00:29:02,973 --> 00:29:07,573
Speaker 3: book on that subject. Yes, very much, it's that. And

453
00:29:07,653 --> 00:29:12,373
Speaker 3: we have a program called Artibus that will land has

454
00:29:12,373 --> 00:29:16,013
Speaker 3: already landed on the Moon, but will probably set up

455
00:29:16,053 --> 00:29:18,573
Speaker 3: by the end of this decade a colony on the Moon.

456
00:29:19,573 --> 00:29:23,653
Speaker 3: Now we are very interested in science, certainly, but when

457
00:29:23,693 --> 00:29:27,133
Speaker 3: you think about what the oceans meant, this is what

458
00:29:27,213 --> 00:29:30,613
Speaker 3: space means. Space is an ocean and is the high ground.

459
00:29:31,173 --> 00:29:34,053
Speaker 3: So the Chinese certainly want to go to space. They

460
00:29:34,093 --> 00:29:36,933
Speaker 3: have a space program. They're hoping to land on the

461
00:29:36,973 --> 00:29:41,253
Speaker 3: Moon at the end of the decade without leaving humans there.

462
00:29:42,693 --> 00:29:46,253
Speaker 3: But they're way behind. The Russians don't have the resources

463
00:29:46,253 --> 00:29:48,893
Speaker 3: to really do it. One of their rockets to the

464
00:29:48,933 --> 00:29:52,813
Speaker 3: moon last week, I think it was month certainly blew up.

465
00:29:53,213 --> 00:30:00,213
Speaker 3: It didn't work. So China building a fleet, building a

466
00:30:00,253 --> 00:30:05,573
Speaker 3: space force, bartying is order against Russia. Even vast China

467
00:30:05,933 --> 00:30:09,133
Speaker 3: has this hands full. And we are in a nice

468
00:30:09,173 --> 00:30:13,373
Speaker 3: position because we're breaking out of our alliances, out of

469
00:30:13,413 --> 00:30:16,213
Speaker 3: some of our commitments. We have command of the sea,

470
00:30:16,653 --> 00:30:18,653
Speaker 3: and we are surging into space.

471
00:30:19,853 --> 00:30:23,453
Speaker 2: Looking at the world as a whole. Is the world

472
00:30:23,573 --> 00:30:28,093
Speaker 2: going to be able to afford all of this space maneuvering.

473
00:30:28,533 --> 00:30:33,213
Speaker 3: Well, that's exactly where Columbus tried to convince Queen Isabella.

474
00:30:33,773 --> 00:30:36,773
Speaker 3: We have the money to go to North America, the

475
00:30:36,813 --> 00:30:41,613
Speaker 3: Western hemisphere. Western Hemisphere is there. Europe has spent vast

476
00:30:41,653 --> 00:30:46,173
Speaker 3: amounts of money on navies. The British almost bankrupted themselves,

477
00:30:46,213 --> 00:30:48,693
Speaker 3: and so on, but they knew that to be rich,

478
00:30:48,853 --> 00:30:51,893
Speaker 3: to hold India, to hold North America for a while,

479
00:30:51,933 --> 00:30:57,373
Speaker 3: and so on, navies are essential. So navies, interesting enough,

480
00:30:57,413 --> 00:31:01,893
Speaker 3: are investment that produces the possibility of trade and so on,

481
00:31:02,613 --> 00:31:06,213
Speaker 3: and our essential element space will be the same.

482
00:31:07,653 --> 00:31:10,853
Speaker 2: But you know what I'm driving it the cost to

483
00:31:11,133 --> 00:31:17,373
Speaker 2: individual countries of following through with space programs is ginormous

484
00:31:17,413 --> 00:31:20,973
Speaker 2: and will only get bigger, and one by one they've

485
00:31:21,013 --> 00:31:25,333
Speaker 2: got to eliminate themselves from well, I see what you mean, Yes,

486
00:31:25,453 --> 00:31:29,253
Speaker 2: take take themselves out of play, because they simply can't

487
00:31:29,293 --> 00:31:32,293
Speaker 2: afford to maintain and what they have done in the

488
00:31:32,333 --> 00:31:35,493
Speaker 2: past on Earth, having spent so much or spending so

489
00:31:35,613 --> 00:31:37,533
Speaker 2: much in the clouds.

490
00:31:38,053 --> 00:31:41,493
Speaker 3: Well, in some way we're saying the same thing, they

491
00:31:41,533 --> 00:31:45,573
Speaker 3: can't afford it, and what they can afford they must

492
00:31:45,573 --> 00:31:50,813
Speaker 3: devote to earthside military capabilities. It's interesting that in a

493
00:31:50,933 --> 00:31:56,293
Speaker 3: Musk is now sort of running the country in a way, right,

494
00:31:56,653 --> 00:31:59,253
Speaker 3: but he is the one who's has in its own

495
00:31:59,293 --> 00:32:04,013
Speaker 3: space program. So we have multiple private space programs plus NASA,

496
00:32:04,493 --> 00:32:06,973
Speaker 3: and we have the money to go to space and

497
00:32:07,053 --> 00:32:10,973
Speaker 3: all those workers laid off public paper musks rockets.

498
00:32:10,693 --> 00:32:15,333
Speaker 2: George, tell me this then, an extended question with the debt,

499
00:32:15,373 --> 00:32:20,573
Speaker 2: that America now has so many trillions and no seeming

500
00:32:20,653 --> 00:32:25,053
Speaker 2: way to eliminate it or even drive it down because

501
00:32:25,053 --> 00:32:29,133
Speaker 2: it keeps expanding. How on Earth can how on Earth

502
00:32:29,253 --> 00:32:34,093
Speaker 2: can America at the same time keep expanding its.

503
00:32:33,933 --> 00:32:41,293
Speaker 3: Spending because it has a vast industrial base. Its products

504
00:32:41,293 --> 00:32:45,413
Speaker 3: are sold all over the world and wanted because our

505
00:32:45,453 --> 00:32:48,813
Speaker 3: technology is extraordinary. I mean, when you take a look

506
00:32:48,853 --> 00:32:53,573
Speaker 3: at debt and a company you own, look at your

507
00:32:53,653 --> 00:32:57,933
Speaker 3: probability of paying for it by looking at your assets.

508
00:32:58,693 --> 00:33:04,133
Speaker 3: And we talk about this, but as many economists, it's

509
00:33:04,173 --> 00:33:09,453
Speaker 3: a very good political issue to intimidate. But the point

510
00:33:09,453 --> 00:33:14,293
Speaker 3: of fact, the economy still moves be to one point another,

511
00:33:15,333 --> 00:33:19,093
Speaker 3: not risking starvation, not risking the normal things. So the

512
00:33:19,173 --> 00:33:23,093
Speaker 3: fact is that the numbers are one sided, as if

513
00:33:23,133 --> 00:33:26,573
Speaker 3: you looked at your debts without your assets, well, that's

514
00:33:26,773 --> 00:33:29,133
Speaker 3: how do we pay for it? And the fact is

515
00:33:29,133 --> 00:33:32,733
Speaker 3: we're paying for it. And there's nothing to indicate that

516
00:33:32,813 --> 00:33:34,813
Speaker 3: the US is going to fail of his debt payments.

517
00:33:36,013 --> 00:33:38,093
Speaker 2: What's the biggest expandit you're in the budget.

518
00:33:38,293 --> 00:33:42,013
Speaker 3: The biggest single one, I would guess is a defense.

519
00:33:42,893 --> 00:33:43,573
Speaker 2: What's second?

520
00:33:43,653 --> 00:33:48,133
Speaker 3: And I'm not really sure. I'm not really certain. I

521
00:33:48,133 --> 00:33:49,773
Speaker 3: would social costs.

522
00:33:50,213 --> 00:33:56,693
Speaker 2: Can I help you sure? It's just become the interest

523
00:33:56,893 --> 00:33:58,373
Speaker 2: on the debt.

524
00:34:00,213 --> 00:34:04,773
Speaker 3: We pay it. I have mods look, you have to

525
00:34:04,853 --> 00:34:08,213
Speaker 3: take a look again at the flow of money into

526
00:34:08,213 --> 00:34:11,173
Speaker 3: the government that Trump is trying to cut back on,

527
00:34:12,133 --> 00:34:18,613
Speaker 3: along with expenditures. But it was not a crisis in

528
00:34:18,653 --> 00:34:22,213
Speaker 3: the United States. Many Poles showed that it was inflation

529
00:34:22,373 --> 00:34:26,173
Speaker 3: that went on to office. It was culture wars. It

530
00:34:26,293 --> 00:34:29,693
Speaker 3: was the hyper egalitarianism of the Democrats that have got

531
00:34:29,853 --> 00:34:33,813
Speaker 3: nuts and the company became sick of it. But there

532
00:34:33,813 --> 00:34:38,573
Speaker 3: are other issues here that are much more frightening that

533
00:34:38,773 --> 00:34:42,853
Speaker 3: The most frightening issue is cultural. So I would say

534
00:34:42,893 --> 00:34:48,333
Speaker 3: that looking at the United States, there's talk about the debt,

535
00:34:48,973 --> 00:34:52,413
Speaker 3: but that talk has gone on all my life, whatever

536
00:34:52,453 --> 00:34:55,653
Speaker 3: it was, and the debt never failed to be paid.

537
00:34:56,173 --> 00:34:59,533
Speaker 3: Because of the productivity in the United States, we could

538
00:34:59,533 --> 00:35:04,853
Speaker 3: always raise taxes, so we don't take raise taxes because

539
00:35:04,853 --> 00:35:09,893
Speaker 3: it reduces investment. So we're going to watch what Trump does.

540
00:35:11,213 --> 00:35:15,533
Speaker 2: There's talk at the moment about the government. Trump if

541
00:35:15,573 --> 00:35:22,213
Speaker 2: you like resetting the value of the Donna, not just

542
00:35:22,293 --> 00:35:25,973
Speaker 2: of the Dona, but of gold as well, And I'm

543
00:35:26,013 --> 00:35:28,293
Speaker 2: wondering if you think the same thing in there.

544
00:35:28,613 --> 00:35:33,373
Speaker 3: It may well happen. Look with the Ukrainian War represents

545
00:35:33,413 --> 00:35:37,053
Speaker 3: a turning point, oddly enough, just as much as World

546
00:35:37,093 --> 00:35:41,653
Speaker 3: War two did. World War two ended European in Germany

547
00:35:42,213 --> 00:35:46,133
Speaker 3: and power and buckled it under the United States and NATO.

548
00:35:47,773 --> 00:35:52,413
Speaker 3: Now Russia has shown its weakness and the United States

549
00:35:52,573 --> 00:35:56,533
Speaker 3: is left free to maneuver. What Trump is doing first

550
00:35:56,693 --> 00:35:59,893
Speaker 3: is not just probing. He knows that the opposition to

551
00:35:59,973 --> 00:36:01,813
Speaker 3: him in the United States will grow. I mean the

552
00:36:01,893 --> 00:36:04,253
Speaker 3: idea that he's not going to have a huge opposition.

553
00:36:05,093 --> 00:36:08,173
Speaker 3: You can do this. Roosevelt had his one hundred days

554
00:36:09,093 --> 00:36:13,453
Speaker 3: when he's restructured the banking system completely because he had

555
00:36:13,493 --> 00:36:17,933
Speaker 3: to and before Congress could stop him. Trump is doing

556
00:36:17,973 --> 00:36:21,453
Speaker 3: the same thing. It's a very funny they do. He say, Look,

557
00:36:21,653 --> 00:36:25,013
Speaker 3: I've got about one hundred days before they come and

558
00:36:25,013 --> 00:36:27,853
Speaker 3: get me. I'm going to get everything done before that.

559
00:36:28,413 --> 00:36:31,413
Speaker 3: I'm going to get my foreign policy done. I'm going

560
00:36:31,453 --> 00:36:35,933
Speaker 3: to get my economic reforms done because the rest of

561
00:36:35,933 --> 00:36:39,773
Speaker 3: the time I'm going to be blocked. He's doing pretty well.

562
00:36:40,493 --> 00:36:42,453
Speaker 3: He's smarter than the average bear is.

563
00:36:42,493 --> 00:36:44,933
Speaker 2: He also smarter than the average beer because he's surrounding

564
00:36:45,013 --> 00:36:50,493
Speaker 2: himself with people who are, in many cases brighter than

565
00:36:50,533 --> 00:36:50,853
Speaker 2: he is.

566
00:36:52,253 --> 00:36:56,173
Speaker 3: That's the brightest thing, the brightest bears could do, surround

567
00:36:56,213 --> 00:37:01,413
Speaker 3: himself with people who. Firstly, don't they talk about violating

568
00:37:01,453 --> 00:37:05,933
Speaker 3: the norms right, well, the norms needed to be violated,

569
00:37:06,933 --> 00:37:11,653
Speaker 3: so no, no one says, don't develop a new computer

570
00:37:11,933 --> 00:37:17,853
Speaker 3: because violates the norm. Our political system goes undergoes every

571
00:37:17,973 --> 00:37:22,973
Speaker 3: fifty years, a massive jefficient. You mentioned my books, I

572
00:37:23,173 --> 00:37:25,613
Speaker 3: predicted that this was going to come at about this time.

573
00:37:26,533 --> 00:37:29,973
Speaker 3: So all of the old order is being shifted. The

574
00:37:30,053 --> 00:37:34,773
Speaker 3: old order is screening uncontrollably to what's happening. Calling him

575
00:37:34,773 --> 00:37:38,093
Speaker 3: a dictator. Franklin Roosevelt was called a dictator for what

576
00:37:38,133 --> 00:37:43,013
Speaker 3: he did. We have opera, not politics, And what's happening

577
00:37:43,053 --> 00:37:46,013
Speaker 3: here is the pressures that built up in America partly

578
00:37:46,133 --> 00:37:49,973
Speaker 3: came from the way we related to the world and

579
00:37:50,053 --> 00:37:54,453
Speaker 3: our political structure. And there's been a revolution, and this

580
00:37:54,613 --> 00:37:58,613
Speaker 3: violates the norm, and that will coalesce against him. So

581
00:37:58,693 --> 00:38:00,653
Speaker 3: he knows he has so much time.

582
00:38:01,213 --> 00:38:02,333
Speaker 2: And do you think he's doing well?

583
00:38:02,893 --> 00:38:06,573
Speaker 3: Well, I think he's doing well or else he's lead.

584
00:38:07,213 --> 00:38:12,013
Speaker 3: Now he may do badly, but he's taking the necessary,

585
00:38:12,093 --> 00:38:19,013
Speaker 3: ruthless chances, building new coalitions, abandoning old alliances, restructuring the government.

586
00:38:19,813 --> 00:38:23,133
Speaker 3: I worry a little that he overestimates that, but I

587
00:38:24,333 --> 00:38:26,853
Speaker 3: was in the government, and the inefficiency of the government

588
00:38:26,933 --> 00:38:31,213
Speaker 3: is breathless. To order, a new rifle had to go

589
00:38:31,253 --> 00:38:36,213
Speaker 3: through three layers This is no joke. The US government

590
00:38:36,333 --> 00:38:40,493
Speaker 3: has grown out of the Roselt period to an unmanageable mess.

591
00:38:41,693 --> 00:38:45,493
Speaker 3: Now inevitably, Musk was sent in there to take care

592
00:38:45,493 --> 00:38:48,293
Speaker 3: of it, and he's going to overshoot. He can't help that.

593
00:38:49,213 --> 00:38:52,493
Speaker 3: He'll be blamed for it, not Musk, So he's going

594
00:38:52,533 --> 00:38:56,173
Speaker 3: to push this very far and look very frightening. But

595
00:38:56,213 --> 00:38:57,973
Speaker 3: he's not going to hold on to most of this.

596
00:38:58,973 --> 00:39:02,133
Speaker 3: But he has to be able to maneuver in the

597
00:39:02,133 --> 00:39:06,453
Speaker 3: first hundred days and then retreat as he has to Georgie.

598
00:39:06,493 --> 00:39:11,213
Speaker 2: I want to get to the Masaudi situation, but first

599
00:39:11,293 --> 00:39:15,973
Speaker 2: of all we need to cover off Ukraine and Russia.

600
00:39:16,733 --> 00:39:20,693
Speaker 2: And I'm just I'm intrigued to know your thoughts on

601
00:39:21,333 --> 00:39:24,533
Speaker 2: what the outcome of the Ukraine War is going to be.

602
00:39:25,013 --> 00:39:29,093
Speaker 3: Well, we know one uncome. Russia suffered a massive defeat.

603
00:39:29,973 --> 00:39:34,613
Speaker 3: The Russian Army, the Red Army, the defeated Hitler could

604
00:39:34,613 --> 00:39:38,853
Speaker 3: not take Ukraine in three years of fighting. That and

605
00:39:38,933 --> 00:39:43,133
Speaker 3: the world doesn't noted enough is extraordinary. It should have

606
00:39:43,173 --> 00:39:47,293
Speaker 3: been as in Hungary, a two day battle and he

607
00:39:47,333 --> 00:39:50,253
Speaker 3: couldn't do it. And he had an attempted kude Ta

608
00:39:50,413 --> 00:39:54,853
Speaker 3: at the same time. So what he discovered I don't

609
00:39:54,853 --> 00:39:58,093
Speaker 3: think he knew is that his military doesn't have the

610
00:39:58,173 --> 00:40:03,573
Speaker 3: capabilities it had under communism, was unable to do this.

611
00:40:04,893 --> 00:40:09,373
Speaker 3: At this point, the American view of Russia changes. We

612
00:40:09,453 --> 00:40:14,333
Speaker 3: built our foreign policy around fighting communism wherever it is,

613
00:40:14,853 --> 00:40:20,253
Speaker 3: hence Russia. Russia no longer represents a threat to Europe.

614
00:40:20,413 --> 00:40:25,293
Speaker 3: Therefore NATO is obsolete and the Europeans are fragmenting as

615
00:40:25,293 --> 00:40:29,093
Speaker 3: it did. And you notice the Europeans said troops the

616
00:40:29,173 --> 00:40:34,453
Speaker 3: police said literally the President said hell no. So they

617
00:40:34,573 --> 00:40:38,813
Speaker 3: understand the decline to the threat of Russia. They also

618
00:40:38,853 --> 00:40:43,733
Speaker 3: decline to see that they have their own internal issues

619
00:40:43,773 --> 00:40:47,173
Speaker 3: to settle. Europe is a mess. The EU doesn't work.

620
00:40:48,173 --> 00:40:56,173
Speaker 3: And Trump understood that NATO was obsolete, archaic. The Russians

621
00:40:56,213 --> 00:40:59,133
Speaker 3: were good attack The Europeans are quite capable of defending

622
00:40:59,173 --> 00:41:02,213
Speaker 3: themselves and did not. It's not because they can't afford it,

623
00:41:03,213 --> 00:41:09,013
Speaker 3: so we built NATO. NATO was designed because the Europeans

624
00:41:09,053 --> 00:41:11,613
Speaker 3: could not possibly defend themselves, and the Russians really had

625
00:41:11,613 --> 00:41:15,933
Speaker 3: an army. Now, the Russian army was a failure. They

626
00:41:16,253 --> 00:41:19,893
Speaker 3: lost many, many people. We don't know the count because

627
00:41:19,933 --> 00:41:22,693
Speaker 3: the Russians don't release it, but they lost a lot,

628
00:41:23,853 --> 00:41:26,333
Speaker 3: and the United States now has a free hand to

629
00:41:26,413 --> 00:41:28,813
Speaker 3: reshape the world, which goes into the question you asked

630
00:41:28,813 --> 00:41:35,213
Speaker 3: about will they reprice the dollar? Will they reprice these things?

631
00:41:35,853 --> 00:41:37,933
Speaker 3: And the answer is, at this point we have a

632
00:41:37,933 --> 00:41:42,213
Speaker 3: free hand. That freehand will disappeirit over time. But Trump

633
00:41:42,293 --> 00:41:45,973
Speaker 3: is trying to take this opening that was left for

634
00:41:46,053 --> 00:41:53,013
Speaker 3: him and manage it on all aspects, cutting the Defense Department,

635
00:41:53,853 --> 00:41:59,133
Speaker 3: reshaping the economic system, and to his joy because he

636
00:41:59,213 --> 00:42:02,613
Speaker 3: doesn't like them throw into Europeans into chaos.

637
00:42:03,093 --> 00:42:05,653
Speaker 2: I'm not going to challenge it. How much gold is

638
00:42:05,653 --> 00:42:06,333
Speaker 2: there in thought.

639
00:42:06,253 --> 00:42:12,213
Speaker 3: Knox, I wish a lot. We don't know. There are

640
00:42:12,213 --> 00:42:14,733
Speaker 3: those who say there is none, and they won't leticine

641
00:42:14,773 --> 00:42:15,173
Speaker 3: to see it.

642
00:42:15,613 --> 00:42:17,853
Speaker 2: Well, he's going to he's going to do it.

643
00:42:18,973 --> 00:42:21,253
Speaker 3: Well, he's certainly going to do it, and he'll find out.

644
00:42:21,533 --> 00:42:26,053
Speaker 3: But remember, an economy is the standard of living. You

645
00:42:26,173 --> 00:42:30,333
Speaker 3: measure the economy not by the abstract members of economists.

646
00:42:32,373 --> 00:42:36,733
Speaker 3: He's measured the economy by the manner in which people live,

647
00:42:36,853 --> 00:42:39,933
Speaker 3: the products that are available, security and so on and

648
00:42:40,013 --> 00:42:45,773
Speaker 3: so forth, and that is not declining at all. There's pressure,

649
00:42:46,053 --> 00:42:49,853
Speaker 3: There's was pressure during the bond crisis and everything else.

650
00:42:49,933 --> 00:42:54,453
Speaker 3: We live with cycles. But whether there's gold or not,

651
00:42:54,613 --> 00:42:58,213
Speaker 3: you can't eat gold. Some people like it for jewelry,

652
00:42:58,213 --> 00:43:03,533
Speaker 3: I guess, but the basic economic structure is your production

653
00:43:03,653 --> 00:43:05,653
Speaker 3: and consumption, and that's maintaining itself.

654
00:43:05,773 --> 00:43:10,733
Speaker 2: Okay. By the same token, from my perspective, never underestimate

655
00:43:10,813 --> 00:43:16,013
Speaker 2: the power of gold. So, just just having visited Ukraine,

656
00:43:16,293 --> 00:43:17,173
Speaker 2: how's it going to end?

657
00:43:17,853 --> 00:43:22,573
Speaker 3: Well? When one side defeats the other, it ends in

658
00:43:22,613 --> 00:43:28,853
Speaker 3: the winning side deciding what happens when there's but basically

659
00:43:28,933 --> 00:43:33,213
Speaker 3: a in the ability to win the war by either side.

660
00:43:33,813 --> 00:43:39,533
Speaker 3: There's a negotiation. So Russia can't take Ukraine. It has

661
00:43:39,573 --> 00:43:43,253
Speaker 3: a bit of it, not a small point, but it

662
00:43:43,373 --> 00:43:48,133
Speaker 3: failed to do the whole thing. Ukraine can't push Russia out.

663
00:43:48,613 --> 00:43:50,773
Speaker 3: The United States has no desire to get involved in

664
00:43:50,773 --> 00:43:54,453
Speaker 3: this war. They don't care how big Ukraine is. The

665
00:43:54,533 --> 00:43:57,293
Speaker 3: Ukraine is now saying we have precious medals, come to

666
00:43:57,373 --> 00:44:02,973
Speaker 3: war with us. Sorry, guy, not precious medals, but rare earths.

667
00:44:04,053 --> 00:44:08,133
Speaker 3: So the war ends with negotiations. There's no other way.

668
00:44:08,853 --> 00:44:12,333
Speaker 3: You can keep fighting it dying. The Russians approved, they

669
00:44:12,333 --> 00:44:16,613
Speaker 3: can't win all of what they wanted. The Ukrainians proved

670
00:44:16,613 --> 00:44:19,653
Speaker 3: they could stop them with Western weapons, which that we

671
00:44:19,773 --> 00:44:24,173
Speaker 3: get about Western lives. And so they are negotiations, and

672
00:44:24,213 --> 00:44:26,533
Speaker 3: that's where the world is now. That's the center of

673
00:44:26,573 --> 00:44:31,373
Speaker 3: the world, the negotiations over Ukraine. This war was not

674
00:44:31,493 --> 00:44:37,213
Speaker 3: about Ukraine. This war was about Russian American relationships. This

675
00:44:37,493 --> 00:44:40,293
Speaker 3: was about what the end of the Cold Wars really

676
00:44:40,373 --> 00:44:45,173
Speaker 3: ended here, not back when the Colimans fell, what it meant,

677
00:44:45,533 --> 00:44:49,533
Speaker 3: and the Russians proved of limited power, and the Americans

678
00:44:49,533 --> 00:44:51,573
Speaker 3: are now prepared to deal with them because they might

679
00:44:51,653 --> 00:44:54,053
Speaker 3: emerge again. They're a major power. They have a different

680
00:44:54,133 --> 00:44:57,053
Speaker 3: understanding of the Russians. You know, Trump really had an

681
00:44:57,133 --> 00:45:00,133
Speaker 3: understanding that of Putin. America has the understanding of Russia.

682
00:45:01,653 --> 00:45:03,773
Speaker 3: And this is what's going on.

683
00:45:04,693 --> 00:45:07,693
Speaker 2: You were detrimental a short while ago to Europe as

684
00:45:07,693 --> 00:45:10,933
Speaker 2: a whole. Is it in decline? And I'll say the

685
00:45:10,973 --> 00:45:13,773
Speaker 2: answers yes, But is it going to collapse?

686
00:45:14,893 --> 00:45:18,813
Speaker 3: I don't know how Europe collapses. I know what I means.

687
00:45:19,293 --> 00:45:22,493
Speaker 3: It means that they've returned to pre Cold War model.

688
00:45:23,373 --> 00:45:27,413
Speaker 3: Europe is a continent, not a nation. It's a name.

689
00:45:27,493 --> 00:45:30,013
Speaker 3: We use to talk about a whole bunch of different

690
00:45:30,053 --> 00:45:34,133
Speaker 3: countries who never liked each other, have competing interests, but

691
00:45:34,213 --> 00:45:35,893
Speaker 3: aren't going to get to war with each other. They've

692
00:45:35,933 --> 00:45:38,773
Speaker 3: done that twice. It doesn't work. So it is a

693
00:45:38,853 --> 00:45:45,333
Speaker 3: continent of highly literate, competent, technical people with great economic powers.

694
00:45:45,733 --> 00:45:50,413
Speaker 3: They have economic competition and they have internal political rivalries.

695
00:45:50,653 --> 00:45:52,853
Speaker 3: You know within the countries. The Germans are holding an

696
00:45:52,853 --> 00:45:57,213
Speaker 3: election now, So what will happen to Europe is it

697
00:45:57,253 --> 00:46:02,133
Speaker 3: will become a well to do place with economic influence,

698
00:46:02,773 --> 00:46:06,933
Speaker 3: no geopolitical influence or little geopolitical influence. Do they want

699
00:46:06,973 --> 00:46:09,653
Speaker 3: to spend the money? So it doesn't decline. I mean,

700
00:46:09,693 --> 00:46:15,493
Speaker 3: it declines as a force in international politics, but it's economy,

701
00:46:15,613 --> 00:46:21,773
Speaker 3: well that's declining, but reversible. But the EU itself as

702
00:46:21,773 --> 00:46:25,733
Speaker 3: an institution is non functional the interests.

703
00:46:25,413 --> 00:46:28,693
Speaker 2: Of the bulgar When I when I when I said Europe,

704
00:46:28,693 --> 00:46:30,413
Speaker 2: that's that's what I was referring to.

705
00:46:31,253 --> 00:46:34,853
Speaker 3: Okay, Well, in that sense, Europe is fragmenting back to

706
00:46:34,933 --> 00:46:38,933
Speaker 3: what it is a continent of the nation states with

707
00:46:39,013 --> 00:46:43,973
Speaker 3: different interests and very different needs. Europe goes from poor

708
00:46:44,093 --> 00:46:50,373
Speaker 3: countries like the Balkans or Bulgaria, to France, which nobody likes,

709
00:46:51,413 --> 00:46:54,733
Speaker 3: to the British, which you know, these are very different

710
00:46:54,733 --> 00:46:58,053
Speaker 3: countries that are very small place. They fought many wars,

711
00:46:58,853 --> 00:47:00,973
Speaker 3: but there is no such thing as Europe until the

712
00:47:01,053 --> 00:47:03,893
Speaker 3: United States imposed it on them. They're going back to

713
00:47:03,893 --> 00:47:07,693
Speaker 3: what they were to continue trade and everything else. But

714
00:47:07,813 --> 00:47:11,053
Speaker 3: the period that a European nation has gone.

715
00:47:11,293 --> 00:47:15,093
Speaker 2: The cultures of those countries, independent as they have been,

716
00:47:15,293 --> 00:47:17,853
Speaker 2: are they able to be sustained under the threat of

717
00:47:18,573 --> 00:47:21,933
Speaker 2: the current threat, the long lived threat now of the

718
00:47:22,333 --> 00:47:23,213
Speaker 2: African invasion.

719
00:47:23,773 --> 00:47:28,253
Speaker 3: Well, the African invasion is immigrants. And one of the

720
00:47:28,293 --> 00:47:31,373
Speaker 3: issues in Europe, as in the United States, is immigration.

721
00:47:32,053 --> 00:47:36,493
Speaker 3: Victor Orban, who I first thought was way out, who

722
00:47:36,573 --> 00:47:40,373
Speaker 3: is right. He has a country of nine million open,

723
00:47:40,453 --> 00:47:44,533
Speaker 3: and you can easily get nine million Africans or Asians

724
00:47:44,613 --> 00:47:48,293
Speaker 3: or what have you to overwheam the native population. This

725
00:47:48,373 --> 00:47:50,013
Speaker 3: is where the Germans are experiencing now.

726
00:47:51,053 --> 00:47:55,973
Speaker 4: The position, the liberal position to fill in Europe that

727
00:47:56,093 --> 00:48:01,013
Speaker 4: we are the home starving of the world is unsustainable,

728
00:48:01,493 --> 00:48:02,573
Speaker 4: So that will be stopped.

729
00:48:03,773 --> 00:48:09,013
Speaker 3: But the Europe itself is not fairly. Remember we also

730
00:48:09,053 --> 00:48:13,453
Speaker 3: have a counterforce, a demographic problem, an aging population and

731
00:48:13,493 --> 00:48:17,413
Speaker 3: a falling birth rate. So these industrial nations are going

732
00:48:17,493 --> 00:48:22,013
Speaker 3: to have to have population. The US is counter to

733
00:48:22,093 --> 00:48:27,173
Speaker 3: what Trump is saying dependent on migration. His father was

734
00:48:27,213 --> 00:48:31,213
Speaker 3: a migrant from Germany. That's what's kept our workforce steady.

735
00:48:31,653 --> 00:48:35,173
Speaker 3: Europe doesn't have a culture of migration, and this past

736
00:48:35,253 --> 00:48:37,693
Speaker 3: period has proven it's not very good at it.

737
00:48:38,053 --> 00:48:42,213
Speaker 2: My suggestion is that it's culture rather than race that matters,

738
00:48:42,653 --> 00:48:47,973
Speaker 2: and the culture that's arriving in Europe by the millions

739
00:48:48,453 --> 00:48:49,653
Speaker 2: is not compatible.

740
00:48:50,013 --> 00:48:53,973
Speaker 3: I agree that it's not race, but the culture from

741
00:48:54,013 --> 00:48:58,693
Speaker 3: Latin America, which is not a different race by and large,

742
00:48:59,293 --> 00:49:02,773
Speaker 3: is frequently incompatible with the culture of the United States.

743
00:49:03,413 --> 00:49:07,693
Speaker 3: So the problem of migration is this stage migration. With

744
00:49:07,773 --> 00:49:10,333
Speaker 3: our democrat problem is indispensable.

745
00:49:11,333 --> 00:49:13,053
Speaker 2: Sorry say that again.

746
00:49:13,133 --> 00:49:20,413
Speaker 3: Stage migration, staged migration, you know, slow, careful, where assimilation

747
00:49:20,653 --> 00:49:24,133
Speaker 3: is made, where the children grow up to be engineers

748
00:49:24,133 --> 00:49:29,893
Speaker 3: and doctors as we all became. I mean, this is necessary.

749
00:49:30,493 --> 00:49:33,373
Speaker 3: The Europe has to have that it has in the

750
00:49:33,413 --> 00:49:37,653
Speaker 3: future declining populations. United States has the same problem, mass

751
00:49:37,773 --> 00:49:41,453
Speaker 3: population of the illiterate of being capable, who were only

752
00:49:41,453 --> 00:49:46,333
Speaker 3: going to be consuming and becoming criminals of need. That's insane.

753
00:49:47,293 --> 00:49:50,573
Speaker 3: So what the United States had was staged population. When

754
00:49:50,853 --> 00:49:54,773
Speaker 3: the first people came to Scots, Irish. They were considered

755
00:49:54,813 --> 00:50:00,333
Speaker 3: unassimblable because they were drinking, nasty fighters and everything, and

756
00:50:00,453 --> 00:50:03,773
Speaker 3: every wave of immigration into the United States was on

757
00:50:04,893 --> 00:50:09,813
Speaker 3: can't be assimilated. Now the Cubans in flow are wealthy

758
00:50:09,853 --> 00:50:13,093
Speaker 3: beyond belief. The Europeans will have to look at the

759
00:50:13,173 --> 00:50:17,213
Speaker 3: United States to see how immigration is managed at a

760
00:50:17,293 --> 00:50:21,013
Speaker 3: time where they will need more labor. The Europeans are

761
00:50:21,133 --> 00:50:25,973
Speaker 3: disorderly people. They seem very neat, but they disorderly, and

762
00:50:26,013 --> 00:50:28,933
Speaker 3: they don't know how to really look at the world.

763
00:50:29,333 --> 00:50:31,813
Speaker 3: They're still looking at the world as that each country

764
00:50:31,933 --> 00:50:36,093
Speaker 3: thinks the other country is the danger. Well, they don't

765
00:50:36,093 --> 00:50:38,653
Speaker 3: have to be one country, but they have to understand

766
00:50:38,653 --> 00:50:42,733
Speaker 3: and all them share the same problem. The cultural problems

767
00:50:42,733 --> 00:50:48,733
Speaker 3: solved by not surging migration, not allow unallowed migration.

768
00:50:48,973 --> 00:50:52,893
Speaker 2: I get that, I get that, and I agree with it.

769
00:50:53,653 --> 00:50:56,733
Speaker 2: But the surging migration has been going on for some

770
00:50:56,773 --> 00:50:59,053
Speaker 2: considerable time, and the numbers tell the story.

771
00:51:00,133 --> 00:51:05,653
Speaker 3: Well, they're there. They can deport them. That's very costly

772
00:51:05,853 --> 00:51:09,173
Speaker 3: because they are making a living there and part of

773
00:51:09,213 --> 00:51:12,773
Speaker 3: their economy depends on them, part of our economy depends

774
00:51:12,853 --> 00:51:15,653
Speaker 3: on them. What Trump is trying to do in the

775
00:51:15,733 --> 00:51:19,733
Speaker 3: United States is the surplus, the immigrants who really haven't

776
00:51:20,213 --> 00:51:24,613
Speaker 3: taken jobs. The American industry could not run without immigrants,

777
00:51:24,853 --> 00:51:28,093
Speaker 3: Never in its history could it do that. The Europeans

778
00:51:28,453 --> 00:51:32,453
Speaker 3: don't have this cultural You're right, the cultural mechanism. All

779
00:51:32,493 --> 00:51:35,853
Speaker 3: that Trump is trying to do is bounce out the

780
00:51:35,973 --> 00:51:38,853
Speaker 3: rapid surplus that was allowed by the Democrats.

781
00:51:38,933 --> 00:51:42,373
Speaker 2: View another headline, Poland is once again poised to become

782
00:51:42,493 --> 00:51:44,213
Speaker 2: Washington's top partner in Europe.

783
00:51:44,413 --> 00:51:50,693
Speaker 3: How come well I once forecasted it would. Poland is strategic.

784
00:51:51,853 --> 00:51:54,253
Speaker 3: If you look at a way to model Poland, you

785
00:51:54,293 --> 00:51:56,293
Speaker 3: don't want the Germans and the Russians to get together.

786
00:51:57,253 --> 00:51:59,973
Speaker 3: Poland sits in the middle. In all the wars we

787
00:52:00,053 --> 00:52:06,133
Speaker 3: had Poland European wars, Poland was the block between a coalition.

788
00:52:07,013 --> 00:52:10,253
Speaker 3: If we make Poland's longer, we can go away and

789
00:52:10,293 --> 00:52:13,893
Speaker 3: not worry about it because Poland is incredibly pro American.

790
00:52:14,853 --> 00:52:19,533
Speaker 3: Poland is warlike. And remember that through his first administration,

791
00:52:19,773 --> 00:52:22,933
Speaker 3: he sent tanks to Poland and they wanted a named

792
00:52:22,973 --> 00:52:27,253
Speaker 3: for Trump after him. So this is a very close relationship.

793
00:52:27,653 --> 00:52:31,853
Speaker 3: But Poland is strategically necessary power because of its position.

794
00:52:32,093 --> 00:52:35,173
Speaker 3: So if Russia weakens it becomes not the Soviet Union,

795
00:52:35,213 --> 00:52:39,573
Speaker 3: but Russia again a country, and Germany strengthens, it becomes

796
00:52:39,653 --> 00:52:43,933
Speaker 3: not the Third Reiche, but a powerful country again. What

797
00:52:44,173 --> 00:52:46,653
Speaker 3: keeps them apart? Poland?

798
00:52:47,213 --> 00:52:51,453
Speaker 2: You said that you predicted that once. I saw that

799
00:52:51,493 --> 00:52:55,093
Speaker 2: I need this morning shortly before we started recording. Actually,

800
00:52:55,133 --> 00:52:58,773
Speaker 2: I was flicking through I pulled out the next one

801
00:52:58,853 --> 00:53:01,253
Speaker 2: hundred years, the forecast for the twenty first century. I

802
00:53:01,333 --> 00:53:04,573
Speaker 2: keep it in my museum section of the library, and

803
00:53:05,013 --> 00:53:09,173
Speaker 2: I pulled it out and flicked through it, and I

804
00:53:09,373 --> 00:53:13,933
Speaker 2: came across Poland being featured lots of other countries as well.

805
00:53:14,613 --> 00:53:18,213
Speaker 2: How it just cast in mind back because this was

806
00:53:18,293 --> 00:53:21,253
Speaker 2: two thousand and nine the book was released, and like

807
00:53:21,253 --> 00:53:23,053
Speaker 2: I said at the top, it was it was a

808
00:53:23,133 --> 00:53:27,573
Speaker 2: very big setup. How would you say your accuracy was?

809
00:53:28,373 --> 00:53:32,653
Speaker 3: I was very good on declining countries, I called them right,

810
00:53:33,973 --> 00:53:39,813
Speaker 3: and the ascending countries they have quite materialized, Turkey, Japan

811
00:53:39,893 --> 00:53:44,253
Speaker 3: didn't become a military power and so on. But on Poland,

812
00:53:44,333 --> 00:53:48,213
Speaker 3: I was right because I foresaw the fragmentation of Europe,

813
00:53:48,773 --> 00:53:51,693
Speaker 3: the re emergence of Germany and the decline of Russia.

814
00:53:52,813 --> 00:53:56,093
Speaker 3: And that led me to a map and said, what

815
00:53:56,733 --> 00:54:00,093
Speaker 3: divides them? And what will the United States want more

816
00:54:00,133 --> 00:54:02,853
Speaker 3: than anything else to keep the Russians and the Germans

817
00:54:03,133 --> 00:54:03,973
Speaker 3: from ganging up.

818
00:54:04,773 --> 00:54:08,133
Speaker 2: Actually, you've given me a sidebar question with that answer.

819
00:54:08,893 --> 00:54:12,773
Speaker 2: The African invasion, let's stay with that is a terminology.

820
00:54:13,133 --> 00:54:17,373
Speaker 2: How much is that affecting and is it likely to

821
00:54:17,493 --> 00:54:22,333
Speaker 2: infect or affect the relations between the nation states of

822
00:54:22,373 --> 00:54:28,813
Speaker 2: Europe because it's diluting the old numbers.

823
00:54:29,293 --> 00:54:34,733
Speaker 3: Well, something's happening in Europe. As I mentioned Victor Ruban Hungary,

824
00:54:35,693 --> 00:54:40,173
Speaker 3: and he had the first anti effective, anti immigration program

825
00:54:40,813 --> 00:54:45,493
Speaker 3: and was ostracized by the Europeans. Now the European political

826
00:54:45,533 --> 00:54:51,013
Speaker 3: mood has shifted toward that position. He's now a profit,

827
00:54:51,173 --> 00:54:54,733
Speaker 3: not an outcast in that sense. So when you look

828
00:54:54,773 --> 00:54:57,773
Speaker 3: at the situation, just as the United States had a

829
00:54:57,813 --> 00:55:00,333
Speaker 3: shift away from what it had to be after World

830
00:55:00,373 --> 00:55:04,013
Speaker 3: War Two, now it has a shift to what it

831
00:55:04,053 --> 00:55:08,293
Speaker 3: has to be after the Cold War, and that includes

832
00:55:08,493 --> 00:55:12,173
Speaker 3: at your political shift, but also a cultural shift. You

833
00:55:12,213 --> 00:55:13,293
Speaker 3: watch the German.

834
00:55:12,973 --> 00:55:17,813
Speaker 2: Elections, all the results around who won the right the

835
00:55:17,853 --> 00:55:19,213
Speaker 2: AfD times sicken.

836
00:55:20,733 --> 00:55:24,173
Speaker 3: And yes the right, Yeah, so the moderate right one

837
00:55:25,413 --> 00:55:28,973
Speaker 3: and the hard right emerged. So you have a completely

838
00:55:29,053 --> 00:55:34,213
Speaker 3: different political structure in Europe. In Germany and that structure

839
00:55:35,413 --> 00:55:41,333
Speaker 3: is from hostile to uneasy with immigration, and all of

840
00:55:41,373 --> 00:55:45,573
Speaker 3: Europe will have this evolution, not because they're racist, not

841
00:55:45,733 --> 00:55:49,453
Speaker 3: because of any of these reasons, but that they're consumers

842
00:55:49,533 --> 00:55:57,693
Speaker 3: not producers. And Europe's economic balance is declining somewhat, not catastrophically,

843
00:55:58,253 --> 00:56:01,013
Speaker 3: and they can't afford this anymore. So what you have

844
00:56:01,133 --> 00:56:05,613
Speaker 3: as a worldwide shift in the liberalism that emerged, I

845
00:56:05,613 --> 00:56:08,613
Speaker 3: mean that the good sense to liberalism that emerged after

846
00:56:08,973 --> 00:56:13,813
Speaker 3: World War Two, that ideology is dead, a different ideologies

847
00:56:13,893 --> 00:56:17,253
Speaker 3: emerging of the nation state nationalism.

848
00:56:17,693 --> 00:56:23,093
Speaker 2: I saw a pole let's see two days ago with

849
00:56:23,173 --> 00:56:25,413
Speaker 2: regard to the AfD and where it was at and

850
00:56:25,453 --> 00:56:28,693
Speaker 2: how well it was going to do. The prediction of

851
00:56:28,733 --> 00:56:34,613
Speaker 2: that pole or the organizers is that next time around

852
00:56:34,653 --> 00:56:36,413
Speaker 2: the AfD will take over.

853
00:56:37,813 --> 00:56:41,893
Speaker 3: They have no idea what will occur Bolsters between now

854
00:56:41,893 --> 00:56:51,133
Speaker 3: and then do I economically, politically, geopolitically. But there's also

855
00:56:51,373 --> 00:56:55,613
Speaker 3: a remembrance in Germany, not of what they did to

856
00:56:55,653 --> 00:56:58,253
Speaker 3: the Jews. That wasn't the issue, but what happened to

857
00:56:58,333 --> 00:57:02,093
Speaker 3: Germany when Europe and the United States and Russia ganged

858
00:57:02,173 --> 00:57:04,293
Speaker 3: up on it, not for the Jews, but for their

859
00:57:04,293 --> 00:57:08,293
Speaker 3: own sake. The Germans are very wary of going too far.

860
00:57:08,773 --> 00:57:13,533
Speaker 3: The German public is very weary. So I think that

861
00:57:14,053 --> 00:57:17,573
Speaker 3: the idea that we're going to get a fascist government

862
00:57:17,613 --> 00:57:21,493
Speaker 3: in Germany is not right. There'll be a fascist element

863
00:57:21,573 --> 00:57:25,893
Speaker 3: in Germany. And does it be the loop right wing?

864
00:57:26,413 --> 00:57:30,213
Speaker 3: Not the Allives. They'll be the right wing bouncers. So

865
00:57:30,653 --> 00:57:34,013
Speaker 3: I think that poll overshoots. What's going to happen? All right?

866
00:57:34,933 --> 00:57:39,373
Speaker 2: Let us wind up with the situation in Saudi Arabia,

867
00:57:39,533 --> 00:57:43,733
Speaker 2: where there is activity and a three sided deal.

868
00:57:43,853 --> 00:57:49,173
Speaker 3: Talk to me, well, what's happening in Saudi Arabia is

869
00:57:49,213 --> 00:57:54,453
Speaker 3: not a negotiation of Ukraine. That's settled. Ukraine remains as

870
00:57:54,493 --> 00:57:58,893
Speaker 3: it is and so on. The negotiation is this The

871
00:57:59,013 --> 00:58:01,973
Speaker 3: United States does not want us be the guaranter of

872
00:58:02,013 --> 00:58:04,813
Speaker 3: the world, so we'd like to go world to shut

873
00:58:04,893 --> 00:58:09,813
Speaker 3: up for a while. The Gaza proposal Trump laid out,

874
00:58:09,893 --> 00:58:12,933
Speaker 3: what could happen, We come in and take asa in

875
00:58:12,933 --> 00:58:15,733
Speaker 3: wish Hey, Saudi Arabia has a lot of trouble, or

876
00:58:15,973 --> 00:58:21,093
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia's joined the Abraham Accords. Why did you think

877
00:58:21,133 --> 00:58:25,053
Speaker 3: about taking responsibility for shutting down Arab opposition to Israel?

878
00:58:25,413 --> 00:58:28,253
Speaker 3: So every ten to fifteen years, we don't have one

879
00:58:28,293 --> 00:58:33,253
Speaker 3: of these things. Dessali's said. If I take the burden

880
00:58:33,373 --> 00:58:36,853
Speaker 3: of being the monitor of the Middle East, and I

881
00:58:36,893 --> 00:58:40,093
Speaker 3: can do that, I become a great power. I have

882
00:58:40,133 --> 00:58:42,453
Speaker 3: the Middle East, I have their resources and everything else.

883
00:58:42,893 --> 00:58:45,773
Speaker 3: Russia's declining, I don't have to worry about them. The

884
00:58:45,813 --> 00:58:49,053
Speaker 3: Americans are not a threat. They want to lie. So

885
00:58:49,093 --> 00:58:54,173
Speaker 3: I see a three part heip world system approaching, one

886
00:58:54,213 --> 00:58:57,573
Speaker 3: in which the Russians still matter. They're a major country,

887
00:58:58,253 --> 00:59:03,733
Speaker 3: need American investment, Saudi Arabia, which is also a major country,

888
00:59:04,133 --> 00:59:07,533
Speaker 3: and the United States, with the United States not taking

889
00:59:07,613 --> 00:59:11,893
Speaker 3: responsibility for everything that happens in the world because less happens.

890
00:59:13,253 --> 00:59:15,453
Speaker 3: I think that's what Trump is planning on. And that's

891
00:59:15,453 --> 00:59:18,333
Speaker 3: what the Gaza proposal was about. Yeah, don't intend you

892
00:59:18,373 --> 00:59:20,933
Speaker 3: to go to Gaza, but he sure have caught the

893
00:59:20,933 --> 00:59:21,733
Speaker 3: Saudi's attention.

894
00:59:22,333 --> 00:59:23,173
Speaker 2: Anything else on that.

895
00:59:24,053 --> 00:59:27,693
Speaker 3: We have to understand that the global system has changed

896
00:59:28,373 --> 00:59:32,653
Speaker 3: as radically as World War two changed it. The Saudis

897
00:59:32,693 --> 00:59:36,533
Speaker 3: have emerged as the major power in the Middle East.

898
00:59:36,973 --> 00:59:39,773
Speaker 3: They always were, they never wanted to play the role.

899
00:59:40,133 --> 00:59:42,893
Speaker 3: Now they're ready. Now that it's not caught being a

900
00:59:42,973 --> 00:59:47,733
Speaker 3: Russian American war, cold war, whatever you want to call it.

901
00:59:48,893 --> 00:59:52,853
Speaker 3: So they're sitting down at a table and reodd The

902
00:59:52,933 --> 00:59:55,853
Speaker 3: Russians are happy that the Americans are willing not to

903
00:59:55,933 --> 01:00:00,893
Speaker 3: press their advantage in Russia. We couldn't. They still are

904
01:00:00,893 --> 01:00:06,093
Speaker 3: a strong contrentty just lost this war. The Americans are

905
01:00:06,293 --> 01:00:10,173
Speaker 3: looking at the opportunity to back out of the Eastern hemisphere,

906
01:00:10,773 --> 01:00:15,293
Speaker 3: except with the Chinese, which now will be no problem.

907
01:00:15,653 --> 01:00:21,613
Speaker 3: And finally the Russians see that the Americans don't want

908
01:00:21,653 --> 01:00:24,813
Speaker 3: to destroy them, but become partners. So we have a

909
01:00:24,893 --> 01:00:31,053
Speaker 3: very different order the Middle East, Russia, the United States,

910
01:00:31,693 --> 01:00:32,533
Speaker 3: and Europe.

911
01:00:32,253 --> 01:00:34,693
Speaker 2: Left out and what follows.

912
01:00:36,253 --> 01:00:42,093
Speaker 3: What follows is a period where there's much internal unrest

913
01:00:42,133 --> 01:00:46,293
Speaker 3: in countries. Like the interwar period between World War One

914
01:00:46,293 --> 01:00:50,693
Speaker 3: and World War Two. It was short, this could be longer.

915
01:00:51,533 --> 01:00:56,453
Speaker 3: There was economic issues and social issues that tore apart

916
01:00:56,653 --> 01:01:02,973
Speaker 3: the world, and international politics was less important. And then

917
01:01:03,013 --> 01:01:07,133
Speaker 3: they re emerged full blast with the later part of

918
01:01:07,133 --> 01:01:08,053
Speaker 3: the nineteen fifties.

919
01:01:09,253 --> 01:01:12,533
Speaker 2: So in the conclusion of your book, The Storm before

920
01:01:12,533 --> 01:01:17,613
Speaker 2: the Calm, you get to the conclusion the American age,

921
01:01:18,093 --> 01:01:20,613
Speaker 2: the year twenty twenty six will be. This is after

922
01:01:20,653 --> 01:01:22,893
Speaker 2: you've predicted the twenties were going to be rocking and rolling.

923
01:01:23,613 --> 01:01:25,973
Speaker 2: The year twenty six will be momentous for the US.

924
01:01:26,693 --> 01:01:29,173
Speaker 2: It'll be two hundred and fifty years since the signing

925
01:01:29,173 --> 01:01:31,933
Speaker 2: of the Declaration of Independence, two fifty years since the

926
01:01:31,933 --> 01:01:36,173
Speaker 2: American settlers declared themselves a people and set themselves on

927
01:01:36,213 --> 01:01:40,133
Speaker 2: a course that led to war, to improbable victory, and

928
01:01:40,293 --> 01:01:43,893
Speaker 2: to the writing of a constitution that turned them from

929
01:01:44,013 --> 01:01:47,813
Speaker 2: becoming a people into creating a regime. It all began

930
01:01:47,853 --> 01:01:50,213
Speaker 2: on July four of that year, and the story is

931
01:01:50,253 --> 01:01:53,973
Speaker 2: still unfolding. As I have shown in a distinct and

932
01:01:54,093 --> 01:01:59,533
Speaker 2: uniquely American way. What would you say now is the

933
01:01:59,613 --> 01:02:01,653
Speaker 2: likelihood of the events of twenty six?

934
01:02:02,293 --> 01:02:04,933
Speaker 3: Well, the events of twenty six already beginning to play

935
01:02:04,973 --> 01:02:10,373
Speaker 3: themselves out. The United States is emerging as obviously the

936
01:02:10,453 --> 01:02:15,613
Speaker 3: major power, but instead of moving quickly to dominate countries,

937
01:02:16,053 --> 01:02:21,173
Speaker 3: it seeks not to dominate countries. I suspect that we

938
01:02:21,293 --> 01:02:24,813
Speaker 3: will have an extended period of prosperity, but we've been

939
01:02:24,853 --> 01:02:29,653
Speaker 3: prosperous except for the depression, a long time. But I

940
01:02:29,653 --> 01:02:32,013
Speaker 3: think what will change in the world as the world

941
01:02:32,013 --> 01:02:36,533
Speaker 3: will have to start taking responsibility for itself. Israel can't

942
01:02:36,573 --> 01:02:39,213
Speaker 3: count on us for everything, so don't have a war.

943
01:02:40,133 --> 01:02:42,613
Speaker 3: We're not going to go into Iraq, so Saudi Arabia

944
01:02:42,773 --> 01:02:46,013
Speaker 3: deal with it. They're already Saudi Iraqi talks going on today.

945
01:02:47,373 --> 01:02:51,253
Speaker 3: Azerbaijan asked to join the Abraham Accords. The movement has

946
01:02:51,293 --> 01:02:57,213
Speaker 3: already begun. The smart players already reposition themselves. For the

947
01:02:57,333 --> 01:03:01,453
Speaker 3: United States, this will be a period of great stress,

948
01:03:01,973 --> 01:03:06,973
Speaker 3: demographic stress and not enough workers of radical technical evolution,

949
01:03:08,453 --> 01:03:12,133
Speaker 3: leading to another fifty years and we'll have another cycle

950
01:03:12,733 --> 01:03:18,693
Speaker 3: with chaos, the Americans collapsing, you know, just like under

951
01:03:19,813 --> 01:03:23,933
Speaker 3: the period before this one, which was the Vietnam War

952
01:03:24,733 --> 01:03:30,373
Speaker 3: and economic crises and will never survive. So America is

953
01:03:30,413 --> 01:03:34,293
Speaker 3: a suicidal nation. We're already always prepared for the worst,

954
01:03:34,933 --> 01:03:36,773
Speaker 3: and that makes us come out on the top. That's

955
01:03:36,813 --> 01:03:40,293
Speaker 3: a good way to be. So we're not confident, but

956
01:03:40,453 --> 01:03:44,133
Speaker 3: the world will be a better place for this because

957
01:03:44,253 --> 01:03:48,293
Speaker 3: unlike Russia that had to be imperialist, or Europe that

958
01:03:48,333 --> 01:03:52,733
Speaker 3: had to be imperialist, we don't care. We're at home

959
01:03:53,613 --> 01:03:57,613
Speaker 3: and we'll fight with Canada, and you'll fight with Canada.

960
01:03:58,453 --> 01:04:04,373
Speaker 2: Oh, Canada, the fifty first state, fifty fifty.

961
01:04:04,413 --> 01:04:07,693
Speaker 3: First, the Canadians went nuts. They thought we were serious.

962
01:04:09,093 --> 01:04:13,773
Speaker 3: I thought it was hilarious. So it was a joke, Yes,

963
01:04:14,533 --> 01:04:18,933
Speaker 3: so a joke. He puts out these jokes. It's taken

964
01:04:19,053 --> 01:04:21,693
Speaker 3: seriously because the American President said it, and then he

965
01:04:21,813 --> 01:04:24,693
Speaker 3: uses it as a wedge to get what he wants.

966
01:04:24,973 --> 01:04:28,413
Speaker 2: What do you think his i Q is?

967
01:04:28,493 --> 01:04:31,573
Speaker 3: His i Q is he has I think a very

968
01:04:31,653 --> 01:04:35,893
Speaker 3: high i Q and a badly damaged personality. He's a

969
01:04:35,973 --> 01:04:37,053
Speaker 3: crazy uns.

970
01:04:37,773 --> 01:04:42,133
Speaker 2: At which point I will thank you profusely, and I

971
01:04:42,173 --> 01:04:45,493
Speaker 2: hope I haven't planted you the storm before the calm.

972
01:04:45,653 --> 01:04:48,413
Speaker 2: And like I said, you can still buy the book.

973
01:04:49,613 --> 01:04:50,973
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, you guys.

974
01:04:51,773 --> 01:04:53,573
Speaker 2: You can buy it online or you can buy it.

975
01:04:53,693 --> 01:04:57,973
Speaker 2: You can, you can. You can get it from Amazon, Amazon, Amazon,

976
01:04:58,573 --> 01:05:04,613
Speaker 2: and it's and it's well worthy of your investment. So, George,

977
01:05:04,613 --> 01:05:07,853
Speaker 2: the next book will be out eventually.

978
01:05:08,773 --> 01:05:10,573
Speaker 3: I'm going to be fitted by the end of.

979
01:05:10,573 --> 01:05:13,373
Speaker 2: March, okay, but it'll take a year to be published.

980
01:05:13,693 --> 01:05:16,653
Speaker 3: Well, given the time frame, they're going to hurry it up.

981
01:05:16,853 --> 01:05:20,773
Speaker 2: Okay, Well we shall interview again on that. So I

982
01:05:20,773 --> 01:05:22,653
Speaker 2: appreciate your time. And it's a.

983
01:05:22,573 --> 01:05:25,933
Speaker 3: Pleasure and a pleasure to hear your voice. You take care.

984
01:05:41,973 --> 01:05:45,893
Speaker 2: Now, missus producer. After your abrupt departure last week, I

985
01:05:46,013 --> 01:05:50,813
Speaker 2: have kept your score to a minimum today later, and

986
01:05:50,893 --> 01:05:53,013
Speaker 2: that's very because I know that you've got things to do.

987
01:05:53,573 --> 01:05:56,613
Speaker 5: No, no, we're all busy people. But I'm very happy

988
01:05:56,653 --> 01:05:58,173
Speaker 5: to be here, as you well know.

989
01:05:58,373 --> 01:06:02,253
Speaker 2: Yes, well it's a better of For how long anyway

990
01:06:03,253 --> 01:06:04,613
Speaker 2: would you like to lead?

991
01:06:05,653 --> 01:06:09,773
Speaker 5: Layton no says Muriel was nothing short brilliant. Her ability

992
01:06:09,813 --> 01:06:13,653
Speaker 5: to explain issues and their long term implications is amazing.

993
01:06:14,293 --> 01:06:16,453
Speaker 5: Seems to me we need her back in Parliament in

994
01:06:16,533 --> 01:06:19,613
Speaker 5: a very senior all this time. Well done once again,

995
01:06:19,973 --> 01:06:20,493
Speaker 5: that's from.

996
01:06:20,413 --> 01:06:24,173
Speaker 2: Nol Noel, Thank you, Graham, right, so, thank you for

997
01:06:24,253 --> 01:06:28,253
Speaker 2: this interview. He's referring to Peter Bagotian. Thank you for

998
01:06:28,293 --> 01:06:32,293
Speaker 2: this interview. We greatly appreciate his rational and critical thinking.

999
01:06:32,373 --> 01:06:35,173
Speaker 2: I would love to hear a debate with a Christian apologist.

1000
01:06:36,013 --> 01:06:37,893
Speaker 2: I've been a listener of yours for many years. I

1001
01:06:37,933 --> 01:06:41,493
Speaker 2: hope that you have a successor in the pipeline, although

1002
01:06:41,493 --> 01:06:43,413
Speaker 2: I hope that you go on for many years yet.

1003
01:06:44,693 --> 01:06:46,293
Speaker 2: From Graham, so.

1004
01:06:46,253 --> 01:06:50,773
Speaker 5: Do I what trying to secure up my personal future

1005
01:06:51,013 --> 01:06:54,613
Speaker 5: having you around for many of you? Laydon g says

1006
01:06:54,733 --> 01:06:58,093
Speaker 5: another reason New Zealand needs its own Trump. The Arts

1007
01:06:58,173 --> 01:07:00,853
Speaker 5: Council in the New Zealand on air are just some

1008
01:07:00,933 --> 01:07:05,973
Speaker 5: of New Zealand's own USAID money pipeline that's constantly flowing

1009
01:07:06,053 --> 01:07:09,013
Speaker 5: out to left wing causes. Even with this new government

1010
01:07:09,093 --> 01:07:12,093
Speaker 5: in place, the entire industry needs to be shut down

1011
01:07:12,213 --> 01:07:13,853
Speaker 5: then rebuilt.

1012
01:07:14,653 --> 01:07:18,933
Speaker 2: I try and favor with that commentary. You see what

1013
01:07:18,973 --> 01:07:22,933
Speaker 2: I'm holding here? Yes, See how long that is? See

1014
01:07:22,933 --> 01:07:26,213
Speaker 2: how difficult it is to read. Yes, it's in sort

1015
01:07:26,253 --> 01:07:29,293
Speaker 2: of I don't know what sort of prince you'd caught it,

1016
01:07:29,333 --> 01:07:34,533
Speaker 2: but it's very black, it's very close type, and it's

1017
01:07:34,573 --> 01:07:38,493
Speaker 2: difficult to read. So I'm going to save this until

1018
01:07:40,093 --> 01:07:43,453
Speaker 2: we have concluded, and I'll keep going and you can

1019
01:07:43,533 --> 01:07:46,653
Speaker 2: keep going and hang on. But it is I just

1020
01:07:46,653 --> 01:07:50,733
Speaker 2: want to say this, it's long, starts out. Sorry, this

1021
01:07:50,773 --> 01:07:53,133
Speaker 2: is a bit of a long one. But I've read

1022
01:07:53,133 --> 01:07:57,693
Speaker 2: it and it's well worthy of going public with it.

1023
01:07:58,173 --> 01:08:01,573
Speaker 5: So latent finally from Mejian, says the activist New Zealand

1024
01:08:01,613 --> 01:08:05,493
Speaker 5: Supreme Court illustrates what hell whole America would have been

1025
01:08:05,933 --> 01:08:08,293
Speaker 5: if the US Supreme Court had a majority of day

1026
01:08:08,333 --> 01:08:13,693
Speaker 5: Democrat elected activist judges. Fortunately for the United States, Donald

1027
01:08:13,733 --> 01:08:17,093
Speaker 5: Trump appointed three of the Supreme Court judges who uphold

1028
01:08:17,133 --> 01:08:22,413
Speaker 5: the Constitution without bias. Unfortunately for New Zealand, we instead

1029
01:08:22,573 --> 01:08:26,453
Speaker 5: have activist Supreme Court judges who uphold the spirit of

1030
01:08:26,493 --> 01:08:30,973
Speaker 5: Three Waters, have per Per and Teacunger. As doctor Muriel

1031
01:08:31,013 --> 01:08:35,213
Speaker 5: Newman said, Tea Kunger can't be defined, so incorporating Maurrai

1032
01:08:35,293 --> 01:08:39,813
Speaker 5: law into common law makes our justice system unpredictable and uncertain.

1033
01:08:40,493 --> 01:08:43,893
Speaker 5: What surprised me most from your interview with Muriel is

1034
01:08:43,893 --> 01:08:46,533
Speaker 5: that the New Zealand Parliament is meant to be supreme

1035
01:08:46,813 --> 01:08:50,573
Speaker 5: over the Supreme Court. Yet Parliament has no clue on

1036
01:08:50,693 --> 01:08:55,693
Speaker 5: what to do to restrain an activist Supreme Court running amok. Thankfully,

1037
01:08:55,973 --> 01:08:59,333
Speaker 5: just last October, Roger Partridge wrote a great New Zealand

1038
01:08:59,413 --> 01:09:03,533
Speaker 5: initiative article entitled Who Makes the Law? Reigning in the

1039
01:09:03,533 --> 01:09:07,693
Speaker 5: Supreme Court, where he detailed how we can and should

1040
01:09:07,773 --> 01:09:11,733
Speaker 5: reign in an activist New Zealand Supreme Court. He proposed

1041
01:09:11,853 --> 01:09:15,853
Speaker 5: five options for Parliament to restore balance to our legal system.

1042
01:09:16,453 --> 01:09:21,453
Speaker 5: Number one targeted legislation that overturn court decisions that go

1043
01:09:21,573 --> 01:09:24,853
Speaker 5: too far. Number two defining the rule of law, which

1044
01:09:24,973 --> 01:09:29,893
Speaker 5: clearly defines guardrails to keep courts in their lane. Number

1045
01:09:29,933 --> 01:09:35,613
Speaker 5: three tightening statutory interpretation rules to discipline the misuse of

1046
01:09:35,693 --> 01:09:40,853
Speaker 5: law interpretation. Number four reforming section six to stop courts

1047
01:09:40,893 --> 01:09:46,093
Speaker 5: from adopting unreasonable or inconsistent meanings in rulings. And number

1048
01:09:46,173 --> 01:09:51,093
Speaker 5: five reforming judicial appointment processes to prioritize candidates who have

1049
01:09:51,213 --> 01:09:56,453
Speaker 5: demonstrated judicial restraint and respect for Parliament. And then Jin

1050
01:09:56,533 --> 01:09:59,213
Speaker 5: goes on to say Roger Partridge has done the hard work,

1051
01:09:59,493 --> 01:10:02,933
Speaker 5: Parliament just needs to implement them. My dead to Parliament

1052
01:10:03,013 --> 01:10:05,813
Speaker 5: is this, do you politicians have the guts to uphold

1053
01:10:05,813 --> 01:10:07,333
Speaker 5: democracy in New Zealand?

1054
01:10:08,533 --> 01:10:11,613
Speaker 2: I have a question about that, as in a question

1055
01:10:11,733 --> 01:10:15,213
Speaker 2: hanging over that some of them do, but I have

1056
01:10:15,293 --> 01:10:17,213
Speaker 2: a feeling there are too many of them that don't.

1057
01:10:18,493 --> 01:10:22,373
Speaker 2: Gutlass is the word. So that takes us out for

1058
01:10:22,413 --> 01:10:25,453
Speaker 2: the mail room. Although this is this is coming as

1059
01:10:25,493 --> 01:10:29,093
Speaker 2: an exit for the podcast, right, but it's it's worth

1060
01:10:29,253 --> 01:10:31,653
Speaker 2: it's worth hearing, So even though you're not going to

1061
01:10:31,653 --> 01:10:33,533
Speaker 2: hear it now, you can listen back to it later.

1062
01:10:33,653 --> 01:10:34,493
Speaker 5: I certainly shall.

1063
01:10:34,693 --> 01:10:36,973
Speaker 2: I shall read it with the best of the best

1064
01:10:36,973 --> 01:10:38,213
Speaker 2: of structure I can.

1065
01:10:38,653 --> 01:10:40,333
Speaker 5: Thanks Lady see you next week.

1066
01:10:40,213 --> 01:11:03,013
Speaker 2: See you next week very likely. And now there's been

1067
01:11:03,053 --> 01:11:06,133
Speaker 2: a change of plan. The letter I intended to read,

1068
01:11:06,253 --> 01:11:08,973
Speaker 2: I can't. I've said it back to the to the

1069
01:11:09,013 --> 01:11:12,453
Speaker 2: author and ask them to rewrite it with double spacing,

1070
01:11:12,973 --> 01:11:16,453
Speaker 2: because it is so close, so tight on the page,

1071
01:11:17,013 --> 01:11:20,533
Speaker 2: that after a few lines your eyes starts spinning, or

1072
01:11:20,533 --> 01:11:24,693
Speaker 2: your head does, or both together. Not his fault, but

1073
01:11:25,093 --> 01:11:27,453
Speaker 2: I've asked him to redo it, and I hope he

1074
01:11:27,493 --> 01:11:31,933
Speaker 2: does because it's worthy of quoting. So I'm replacing it

1075
01:11:31,973 --> 01:11:34,733
Speaker 2: with something that I think you'll enjoy it. It's written

1076
01:11:34,773 --> 01:11:39,013
Speaker 2: by the New Zealand author whose pen name is A. I. Fabler,

1077
01:11:39,653 --> 01:11:42,373
Speaker 2: and that speaks for itself. AI Fabler has appeared on

1078
01:11:42,413 --> 01:11:46,013
Speaker 2: the podcast a couple of times for interviews on books

1079
01:11:46,013 --> 01:11:48,613
Speaker 2: he's written, and he's a very good writer, and he's

1080
01:11:48,653 --> 01:11:52,453
Speaker 2: a very clever writer too. So under the heading of

1081
01:11:52,533 --> 01:11:58,213
Speaker 2: satire and the title of the piece to follow, the

1082
01:11:58,213 --> 01:12:02,853
Speaker 2: publishing world is on heat, I quote we forget most

1083
01:12:02,893 --> 01:12:05,893
Speaker 2: of what we read. For instance, it is said that

1084
01:12:05,933 --> 01:12:08,333
Speaker 2: we all share the same DNA if we go back fast,

1085
01:12:09,333 --> 01:12:14,573
Speaker 2: which means we're all related. I'd forgotten that. Consider the

1086
01:12:14,613 --> 01:12:18,133
Speaker 2: Ossie comedian Kevin Bloody Wilson, who makes his living by

1087
01:12:18,293 --> 01:12:22,613
Speaker 2: being outrageously rude and is currently singing What's Donald going

1088
01:12:22,693 --> 01:12:25,733
Speaker 2: to do today? Are we doomed or are we safe?

1089
01:12:26,013 --> 01:12:29,533
Speaker 2: On YouTube? Then consider Simon Bloody Wilson, economist on the

1090
01:12:29,573 --> 01:12:32,773
Speaker 2: New Zealand's only daily newspaper, the New Zealand Herald, who

1091
01:12:32,813 --> 01:12:35,853
Speaker 2: is so admired by the papers management that he's been

1092
01:12:35,893 --> 01:12:38,853
Speaker 2: given a full page per week for many years to

1093
01:12:38,893 --> 01:12:42,933
Speaker 2: be rude about anyone he considers to be conservative. Knowing

1094
01:12:42,973 --> 01:12:46,013
Speaker 2: what we know about DNA, it's fascinating to think that

1095
01:12:46,093 --> 01:12:49,653
Speaker 2: these two Wilsons are related, though I can see the connection.

1096
01:12:50,613 --> 01:12:53,413
Speaker 2: But that's a digression. What I really wanted to say

1097
01:12:53,613 --> 01:12:57,133
Speaker 2: is that the world of publishing is in meltdown. So

1098
01:12:57,293 --> 01:13:01,573
Speaker 2: called legacy media, after feasting on government COVID funding, are

1099
01:13:01,613 --> 01:13:05,053
Speaker 2: currently losing money as fast as they're losing readers in

1100
01:13:05,173 --> 01:13:08,493
Speaker 2: search of the truths. But the real action is in

1101
01:13:08,813 --> 01:13:12,573
Speaker 2: book publishing, peopled as it is by left wing progressives,

1102
01:13:12,613 --> 01:13:15,933
Speaker 2: of whom ninety two percent are reported as identifying as

1103
01:13:16,213 --> 01:13:20,133
Speaker 2: she her. The industry has been suffering from acute apoplexy

1104
01:13:20,173 --> 01:13:22,973
Speaker 2: over recent months as a result of the American people

1105
01:13:23,013 --> 01:13:27,413
Speaker 2: having rotted the system by electing a Nazi dictator as president.

1106
01:13:28,093 --> 01:13:33,133
Speaker 2: But hold on, all is not lost. Pandemonium has just

1107
01:13:33,213 --> 01:13:37,493
Speaker 2: broken out, and suddenly they them are all acting as

1108
01:13:37,493 --> 01:13:42,453
Speaker 2: if on heat. Why well, you may remember that Michelle Obama,

1109
01:13:42,653 --> 01:13:45,773
Speaker 2: famous for being married to a black president, gave name

1110
01:13:45,853 --> 01:13:49,493
Speaker 2: to an autobiography that garnered millions of readers and dollars,

1111
01:13:50,333 --> 01:13:53,413
Speaker 2: So you'll understand why the publishing industry is on heat

1112
01:13:53,533 --> 01:13:57,573
Speaker 2: at the news that not one, but two of the

1113
01:13:57,613 --> 01:14:02,253
Speaker 2: greatest left wing progressive heroes of our time are negotiating

1114
01:14:02,493 --> 01:14:08,213
Speaker 2: mega deals for upcoming autobiographies. What is particularly exciting is

1115
01:14:08,213 --> 01:14:11,533
Speaker 2: the realization that we now know the two heroes are

1116
01:14:11,573 --> 01:14:15,693
Speaker 2: related by DNA, even though one is black and the

1117
01:14:15,733 --> 01:14:19,853
Speaker 2: other is white. You guessed it. Vice President Kamala Harris

1118
01:14:19,933 --> 01:14:24,693
Speaker 2: and Dame Jacinda Adirn are busy writing about themselves. News

1119
01:14:24,773 --> 01:14:28,493
Speaker 2: is tightly embargoed and opinions are free, so I'll place

1120
01:14:28,533 --> 01:14:32,653
Speaker 2: what follows under the heading of rumors. It is rumored

1121
01:14:32,653 --> 01:14:36,973
Speaker 2: that the two big blockbusters have been tentatively titled The

1122
01:14:37,133 --> 01:14:40,973
Speaker 2: Joy of Kamala Harris as Told to Oprah Winfrey and

1123
01:14:41,413 --> 01:14:45,093
Speaker 2: Being Cruel to Be Kind Jasindra Adirn's Life lessons from

1124
01:14:45,213 --> 01:14:48,613
Speaker 2: the pulpit of truth. Everything is hush hush, of course,

1125
01:14:49,133 --> 01:14:52,813
Speaker 2: but secrets will always out. And I've been lucky enough

1126
01:14:52,853 --> 01:14:55,853
Speaker 2: to see the initial dust Jagget designs, which I share

1127
01:14:55,893 --> 01:15:00,093
Speaker 2: with you here no questions asked, paused for input. I

1128
01:15:00,133 --> 01:15:02,173
Speaker 2: have to say that I can't show them to you,

1129
01:15:02,253 --> 01:15:06,133
Speaker 2: of course, but you can find them for yourself. We continue.

1130
01:15:06,493 --> 01:15:10,493
Speaker 2: Dame Jacinda herself is rumored to have chosen the front

1131
01:15:10,533 --> 01:15:15,293
Speaker 2: cover picture of her investiture as a Dame Grand Companion

1132
01:15:15,333 --> 01:15:18,133
Speaker 2: of the New Zealand Order of Merit by Prince William

1133
01:15:18,213 --> 01:15:21,973
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three. Although it was she who recommended

1134
01:15:22,013 --> 01:15:25,493
Speaker 2: herself for the title, it was as a staunch anti

1135
01:15:25,773 --> 01:15:29,573
Speaker 2: monarchist that she accepted it on behalf of the people.

1136
01:15:30,013 --> 01:15:32,573
Speaker 2: It's the good of the people which always inspired her

1137
01:15:32,813 --> 01:15:36,733
Speaker 2: and it lies at the heart of her autobiography. Always

1138
01:15:36,773 --> 01:15:40,293
Speaker 2: known for her advocacy of kindness, Dame er Sindon has

1139
01:15:40,333 --> 01:15:44,413
Speaker 2: now matured into a thoughtful and wise international voice for hire.

1140
01:15:45,213 --> 01:15:48,053
Speaker 2: It was out of kindness that she forbade people to

1141
01:15:48,133 --> 01:15:51,693
Speaker 2: visit their dying parents or attend their funerals during COVID,

1142
01:15:52,213 --> 01:15:54,933
Speaker 2: After all, fathers were not allowed to see their newborn

1143
01:15:54,973 --> 01:15:59,133
Speaker 2: babies in hospital, so it was only fair, and denying

1144
01:15:59,173 --> 01:16:01,933
Speaker 2: the right to work or travel if people refused the

1145
01:16:02,053 --> 01:16:05,973
Speaker 2: vaccination that neither prevented them catching the virus nor passing

1146
01:16:05,973 --> 01:16:10,093
Speaker 2: it on to others was also an active kindness, because,

1147
01:16:10,093 --> 01:16:13,493
Speaker 2: as she says in her forthcoming book, there are times

1148
01:16:13,533 --> 01:16:16,973
Speaker 2: when one must be cruel to be kind. It's a

1149
01:16:17,053 --> 01:16:19,253
Speaker 2: lesson that the country needed to learn the hard way.

1150
01:16:19,693 --> 01:16:23,893
Speaker 2: As her friend Justin Trudeau wrote in his forward, her

1151
01:16:24,253 --> 01:16:28,053
Speaker 2: smile says it all. But will her keenly anticipated blogbaster

1152
01:16:28,493 --> 01:16:32,013
Speaker 2: have the gravitas and clouts of the rumored soon to

1153
01:16:32,053 --> 01:16:37,093
Speaker 2: be candidate for the governorship of California, Kamala Harris. Joy

1154
01:16:37,453 --> 01:16:40,733
Speaker 2: is the title of her forthcoming autobiography, and it is

1155
01:16:40,893 --> 01:16:44,333
Speaker 2: joy and good vibes that she brings wherever lovers of

1156
01:16:44,333 --> 01:16:48,533
Speaker 2: freedom and social justice gather. As doctor Jill Biden says

1157
01:16:48,613 --> 01:16:52,053
Speaker 2: on the Dust Jacket, we taught her everything we know,

1158
01:16:52,573 --> 01:16:55,893
Speaker 2: but was her wisdom properly understood? There was her speech

1159
01:16:55,893 --> 01:16:58,973
Speaker 2: in July twenty twenty three when she said culture is

1160
01:16:59,693 --> 01:17:02,493
Speaker 2: It is a reflection of our moments in our time

1161
01:17:02,733 --> 01:17:06,093
Speaker 2: right and in present. Culture is the way we express

1162
01:17:06,133 --> 01:17:09,413
Speaker 2: how we're feeling about the moment. This was after saying

1163
01:17:09,533 --> 01:17:12,853
Speaker 2: in April twenty three. So I think it's very important,

1164
01:17:13,093 --> 01:17:16,013
Speaker 2: as you have heard from so many incredible leaders for

1165
01:17:16,173 --> 01:17:19,213
Speaker 2: us at every moment of time, and certainly this one,

1166
01:17:19,813 --> 01:17:22,373
Speaker 2: to see the moment in time in which we exist

1167
01:17:22,453 --> 01:17:26,453
Speaker 2: and are present, and to be able to contextualize it,

1168
01:17:26,653 --> 01:17:29,853
Speaker 2: to understand where we exist in the history and in

1169
01:17:29,893 --> 01:17:32,533
Speaker 2: the moment as it relates not only to the past

1170
01:17:32,613 --> 01:17:36,573
Speaker 2: but the future. These are direct quotes, and they make

1171
01:17:36,653 --> 01:17:38,853
Speaker 2: me want to burst out laughing, but I guess that's

1172
01:17:38,893 --> 01:17:44,013
Speaker 2: the purpose of the article. Maggie Goldstein, the highly respected

1173
01:17:44,013 --> 01:17:47,413
Speaker 2: deputy editor and opinion columnist of The New York Times,

1174
01:17:47,973 --> 01:17:51,813
Speaker 2: wrote that America failed to understand the joyous truth in

1175
01:17:51,893 --> 01:17:56,173
Speaker 2: Kamada Harris's words and suffered as a result. The good

1176
01:17:56,213 --> 01:17:58,453
Speaker 2: news is that America may get a chance to correct

1177
01:17:58,493 --> 01:18:01,693
Speaker 2: its mistake in twenty twenty eight, if the rumor is

1178
01:18:01,733 --> 01:18:04,853
Speaker 2: true that she intends to run for president again. So

1179
01:18:04,973 --> 01:18:08,293
Speaker 2: there we are two great books from two great women,

1180
01:18:08,973 --> 01:18:12,893
Speaker 2: joined by their DNA. No wonder the book publishers of

1181
01:18:12,933 --> 01:18:17,533
Speaker 2: New York Ron Heat can't wait. A I Tabler, February

1182
01:18:17,533 --> 01:18:24,053
Speaker 2: twenty four, twenty twenty five now AI Favorless substack is

1183
01:18:24,093 --> 01:18:27,573
Speaker 2: available for all and sundry to read. I suggest maybe

1184
01:18:27,573 --> 01:18:29,853
Speaker 2: you should have a look at it. You may find

1185
01:18:29,933 --> 01:18:33,733
Speaker 2: that there is a permanent, a permanent input of shall

1186
01:18:33,773 --> 01:18:38,453
Speaker 2: we say things to keep you enlightened? And that will

1187
01:18:38,453 --> 01:18:41,453
Speaker 2: take us out for podcasts two hundred and seventy three.

1188
01:18:42,333 --> 01:18:44,413
Speaker 2: If you would like to correspond with us, love to

1189
01:18:44,453 --> 01:18:47,533
Speaker 2: hear from you. Layton at Newstalks ab dot co dot

1190
01:18:47,613 --> 01:18:50,533
Speaker 2: NZ Latent at Newstalks av dot co dot M said,

1191
01:18:50,573 --> 01:18:55,613
Speaker 2: and please remember to space you your letters, and preferably

1192
01:18:56,893 --> 01:19:02,453
Speaker 2: in print number eighteen, although fourteen will get by if

1193
01:19:02,493 --> 01:19:04,573
Speaker 2: you're using see I don't know what the difference is

1194
01:19:04,613 --> 01:19:07,853
Speaker 2: between printing methods in Apple from Apple which I have

1195
01:19:08,453 --> 01:19:12,133
Speaker 2: and whatever else is available, but I'm guessing that they vary.

1196
01:19:12,693 --> 01:19:14,853
Speaker 2: But keep it, keep it big enough in double space

1197
01:19:14,973 --> 01:19:18,453
Speaker 2: is best and then I won't have to send it

1198
01:19:18,493 --> 01:19:20,813
Speaker 2: back to you and ask you to redo it. And

1199
01:19:20,853 --> 01:19:24,093
Speaker 2: I say that with the very best of appreciations. So

1200
01:19:25,173 --> 01:19:28,213
Speaker 2: you can also write to Carolyn at newstalksb dot co

1201
01:19:28,453 --> 01:19:31,973
Speaker 2: dot nseid So as always, only one thing left to say,

1202
01:19:31,973 --> 01:19:33,853
Speaker 2: and that is thank you for making it this far.

1203
01:19:34,013 --> 01:19:37,573
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening and we shall talk soon. Yes,

1204
01:19:38,613 --> 01:19:41,093
Speaker 2: I do love a bit of satire. See what you

1205
01:19:41,133 --> 01:19:48,813
Speaker 2: can do.

1206
01:19:49,373 --> 01:19:52,973
Speaker 1: Thank you for more from News Talks, ed B. Listen

1207
01:19:53,053 --> 01:19:56,013
Speaker 1: live on air or online, and keep our shows with

1208
01:19:56,133 --> 01:19:59,293
Speaker 1: you wherever you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio.