1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,080 Speaker 1: Gavin Gray, the UK correspondents with us right. 2 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 2: Now, Hey, Kevin, Hi there, Heather Devin. 3 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:07,760 Speaker 1: So we are seriously talking now about the possibility that 4 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:12,680 Speaker 1: Kiir Starmer, the most boring man I've seen in ages, 5 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:16,600 Speaker 1: is going to outperform Tony Blair's landslide. 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 2: It's looking that way. So the polls open here for 7 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: the general election in twenty three and a quarter hours. 8 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 2: So very exciting stuff. But the last most recent opinion 9 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 2: poll from a very very well respected Polster group that 10 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 2: the leader of the opposition is on for a massive landslide. 11 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 2: They are predicting that out of the six hundred and 12 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 2: fifty seats in Parliament, the Keir Starmer's Labor Party will 13 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 2: win four hundred and eighty four. Now that'll mean that 14 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: they then possibly have a massive, massive majority of over 15 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: three hundred. I mean normally, when Boris Johnson got elected 16 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: in he won with a majority of eighty people were 17 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: amazed at that. The idea is somebody's going to get 18 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 2: in with a majority of over three hundred is stunning 19 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 2: and deeply worrying for the Conservative Party, the party of power. Indeed, 20 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 2: according to this opinion poll, these latest figures anyway suggest 21 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 2: that the Conservative Party Rishie Sunac's party may be down 22 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 2: to just sixty four MPs. Now that'll mean some very 23 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 2: very big names just disappear off our political map and 24 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 2: it means that they are only just the second biggest party. 25 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 2: So the Liberal Democrats, normally who you know in the 26 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 2: past really really suffered, particularly following the coalition with David 27 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:45,479 Speaker 2: Cameron's government, would get sixty one, so only a little below. 28 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 2: Of course, all these are just forecasts, they aren't accurate votes, 29 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: but they were done on thirty four and a half 30 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 2: thousand different interviews with people up and down the country. 31 00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 2: And yeah, the big question is what will happen tomorrow. Yeah. 32 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: Now, now, obviously there has been a little bit of 33 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: a problem with the polling in the UK and the past. 34 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: Do you think they've got on top of them in 35 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: these poles completely trustworthy? 36 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 2: I think the thing is with British people is we 37 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 2: quite like to be a bit naughty and do you 38 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 2: know what, at the moment, I don't know anyone who 39 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,639 Speaker 2: would really tell me that they're going to vote Conservative. 40 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 2: I think there's a little bit of an era of 41 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 2: embarrassment about it. Certainly I've never seen fewer Conservative posters 42 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 2: going up around, you know, outside people's housing and so forth. 43 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 2: I think it's the fact people are just embarrassed to 44 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 2: admit it. But many are saying there's such a bad 45 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 2: choice between the two main parties, they probably feel they 46 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 2: might be compelled to go for something less palatable. 47 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, I understand that. So, and speaking of elections over 48 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: in France, more than two hundreds of the left wing 49 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: candidates have been. 50 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 2: Withdrawn, have they yees so? On Sundays the second raft 51 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: in the French election, and these of course the votes 52 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 2: for the parliament they have there. What's very interesting is 53 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 2: that as we approach the second round, it normally goes 54 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 2: down to three candidates in each constituency, and normally that 55 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 2: means you get a centrist for the left wing and 56 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 2: then the right wing Marine Le Pennz Party. Now the 57 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 2: far right parties we know did incredibly well in the 58 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 2: first round and it has now really put the scarem 59 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:23,839 Speaker 2: tactics on the others. They the other parties are saying, right, 60 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 2: in a three way race, we want one of the 61 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 2: candidates of the left or the center to drop out 62 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 2: and throw their support behind the other left wing candidate 63 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 2: in order to keep out the far right. So we 64 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 2: believe that some two hundred and maybe more of these 65 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 2: three way races are becoming two way races instead, and 66 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 2: that I mean that it's going to be a very 67 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 2: very interesting, significant runoff vote on Sunday. To add for 68 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 2: that spice, the far right parties say unless they get 69 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 2: an overall majority, they are going to refuse to appoint 70 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 2: a prime minister. It looks like they might be slightly 71 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 2: faltering and waving on that actually in a recent radio 72 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 2: interview that that's the outright attention, which we leave French 73 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: politics in a complete hole and really a constitution on nightmare, 74 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 2: nobody quite knowing what's going on. So they are trying 75 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 2: to strengthen their support. The left wing are trying to 76 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 2: coalesce the different parties to strengthen their support either way. 77 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,919 Speaker 2: Interesting time ahead. Keep a note in the diary for 78 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 2: Sunday and those exit polls. 79 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean for political geeks, this is quite a week, 80 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 1: isn't it. Gavin, Thank you so much, appreciated, Good luck 81 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 1: with the election tomorrow. That's Kevin Gray, are UK correspondent. 82 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 2: For more from Hither duplus e Allen Drive, listen live 83 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 2: to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, Or 84 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 2: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio