1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,759 Speaker 1: Right from Ji Wealth. Andrew Kello A very good morning. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:03,840 Speaker 2: Good morning, Mike. 3 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: So the good news. Let's start with the good news 4 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:09,480 Speaker 1: manufacturing as opposed to consumer confidence, which isn't up. Manufacturing 5 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:09,879 Speaker 1: is up. 6 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,119 Speaker 3: It is hey before we do that, though, fifteen dollars, 7 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 3: that's what the warriors are paying to win the whole thing. 8 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 3: Fifteen bucks, Sharks, panthers, bulldogs and stormer in front of them. 9 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 2: What do you reckon? 10 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: What are the bulldogs paying? 11 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,119 Speaker 2: Not sure, I think, but they're all bout, they're all less. 12 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: Fifteen is not bad, not bad. With a shout, Andrew. 13 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 2: Anyway, let's talk manufacturing. 14 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 3: This is also going to start the week on a 15 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 3: positive note because last week we had some sort of 16 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 3: softish starter like things like cards spending that was a 17 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 3: bit weaker than we thought. So we've got the green 18 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 3: shoots that we're not really following through with the spending. 19 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 3: There was a number of companies who've been commenting on 20 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 3: week discretionary spending migration was a bit soggy than we thought, 21 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 3: and then Fletcher Building that the restructure at the end 22 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 3: of the weekend. In their comments, they said there is 23 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 3: a lack of any material momentum in the recovery of 24 00:00:57,560 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: New Zealand's economies. So that was a little bit of 25 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 3: a downer, but manufacturing is not. I mean a year 26 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 3: ago it was looking pretty sick. But if we look 27 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 3: at the Business New Zealand B and Z performance of 28 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,759 Speaker 3: manufacturing headline number fifty three point nine up point seven 29 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 3: of a point. That is an uptick in an already 30 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 3: expanding sector. So you've got four months in a row 31 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 3: of expansion. And I look into the subcategories production, new orders, employment, 32 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 3: all in positive territory. As I said, a year ago 33 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 3: or not even a year ago. Last June, this indext 34 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 3: at forty one point four, So we've got a really 35 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 3: good indication that there is a manufacturing recovery. 36 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 2: We can't ignore that. 37 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 3: I sort of tend to agree with a bit of 38 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 3: a view out there that there's an underlying issue now 39 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 3: is whether we can sort of sustain these little pockets 40 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 3: of momentum that we do have. You know, AGRI looks 41 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 3: good and manufacturers looking good. But Mike, I think global 42 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 3: events do seem to potentially play a big role in 43 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 3: that whether or not we can keep that momentum going 44 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 3: because we've got you know, you've got the concerns around 45 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 3: a US recession, you got concerns around the impact of 46 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 3: global trail tariffs are not but on an international comparison 47 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 3: we look good. JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI is at 48 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 3: forty nine point one. Now, admittedly the global sort of 49 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 3: tariff uncertainty that'll be impacting these larger manufacturing economies to 50 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 3: a fire great extent than US, but at fifty three 51 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 3: point nine we're looking pretty good on a global comparison 52 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 3: at the moment. 53 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I reckon. Now, these inflation expectations are so that's bad. 54 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: But within the band, so does that negate that or not? 55 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: Well, I think there will be. This is potentially a 56 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 2: little bit of concern for the RBNZ. 57 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 3: So on Friday, the RBNZ released there may survey of expectations, 58 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 3: and inflation expectations have picked up right across the all 59 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 3: of the time horizons, So specifically, one year has gone 60 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 3: from two point one five to two point four one, 61 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 3: two years has gone from two point oh six to 62 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 3: two point twenty nine. So you're right, they're not massive moves, 63 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 3: still in the one to three percent band, but they're 64 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 3: sort of heading the wrong way in the year's time. 65 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 3: Respondents also expect the OCI to be at. 66 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 2: Two point nine one per cent of one. That seems reasonable. 67 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 3: Look, it's just not a good sign that inflation expectations 68 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 3: are lifting. I think this will be noted by the 69 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,799 Speaker 3: rbnzed Monetary Policy Committee. 70 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 2: They'll also have to weigh up what I was. 71 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 3: Talking about before, the headlines, the concerns around the tariff 72 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 3: global tariff landscape, and I think that will have played 73 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 3: on these responses. But Mike, you look at that selected 74 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 3: price and those selective price indexes last week. Those outcomes 75 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 3: there suggest that inflation will creep up this year. It'll 76 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 3: get into the high twos, it'll be closer to three. 77 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 3: And I think you, look, there is the chance that 78 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 3: this will elicit some caution on the OCI. Moves from 79 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 3: the abbey and said, the good thing, Mike, is on 80 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 3: twenty eight the May, next week, we'll get. 81 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 2: An answer to this. We'll potentially get an answer. 82 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: We will double A plus A. 83 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, very quickly. 84 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 3: US federal government credit rating A change seems dramatic, doesn't it. 85 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 2: But this is Moody going from triple A to double 86 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 2: A plus. 87 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 3: But that just moves Moody in line with the other 88 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 3: credit agencies I mean Fitch down grade at the US 89 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 3: and twenty twenty three S and P of BENI since 90 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 3: twenty eleven, but the downgrade reflects the increase over more 91 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 3: than a decade in government debt, interest and payment ratios 92 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 3: to levels that are significantly higher than similar rated sovereigns. Look, 93 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: it's not it's it's not the end of the world, 94 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 3: but it is sort of a pointer that they've got 95 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 3: to do something about that deficit. 96 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:20,679 Speaker 1: You cannot live beyond your means, no ever, our numbers please. 97 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, So a good week last week, a good week. 98 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 3: The recovery from sort of April the ninth continues. The 99 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 3: Dale Jones was up three hundred and thirty two points 100 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 3: forty two thousand, six hundred and fifty four. 101 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 2: That's over three coars. 102 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 3: Of percent, the S and P five hundred gain forty one, 103 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 3: closing the week just under six thousand, five nine five eight. 104 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 3: That was up point seven percent, and the Nasdaq also 105 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 3: up half a percent ninety eight points nineteen thousand, two 106 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 3: hundred and eleven forty one hundred up point five nine 107 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 3: percent eight six eighty four. The Nike vich I changed 108 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 3: three seven seven five four. Shanghai Composite was down point 109 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 3: four percent three three six seven. The Aussie's gained point 110 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 3: b five six percent forty six points eight three four 111 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 3: to three on the A six two hundred and then 112 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,599 Speaker 3: sex fifty actually fell to close the week ninety four 113 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 3: points point seven three percent four twelve thousand, seven hundred 114 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 3: and eighty six. 115 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 2: We're starting the week with. 116 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 3: Kimi dollar at point five eight seven seven against the 117 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 3: US point nine one four seven against the ossie point 118 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 3: five to six five euro point four four one two 119 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 3: pounds eighty five point five in Japanese yen gold three thousand, 120 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 3: two hundred and four dollars, and oil finished the week 121 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,600 Speaker 3: last week at sixty five dollars and forty one cents. 122 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: Go well, have a good week and we'll catch up 123 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 1: next time. Andrew kellerhead Jomiwelth dot co dot nziit he's 124 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 1: im sure for the rest of the week. For more 125 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: from the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news Talks 126 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: it'd B from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast 127 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.