1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,880 Speaker 1: America was voting yesterday. It turned out pretty much as expected, 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: givenatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. Went to the 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: dams New York Gottman Army. 4 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 2: Throughout this campaign, I've worked hard to be accessible and 5 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 2: transparent with New Yorkers. That same spirit will animate this 6 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:19,080 Speaker 2: transition and the city Hall we built because New Yorkers 7 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 2: deserve a government that they can trust. 8 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: Prop fifty got up in California. Pennsylvania Supreme Court cemented 9 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: the five to two Democratic majority. So what's Trump think 10 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: of it? All? 11 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 3: This shutdown was a big factor negative for the Republicans. Yeah, 12 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 3: that was a big factor. And they say that I 13 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 3: wasn't in the bat it was the biggest factor. I 14 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 3: don't know about that, but I was. 15 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:44,160 Speaker 1: They said that, Yeah, I don't know that anyway, Polster 16 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: Henry Elsen's back with us, Henry, morning. 17 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 4: To you, after our morning to you. 18 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: What do we read into it? I mean, the results 19 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: came in pretty much as they were expected to come in. 20 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: So did it tell us anything? 21 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 4: I think it did tell us something because while the 22 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 4: victors weren't surprising, the margin were that no poll had 23 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,759 Speaker 4: the Democrat winning New Jersey's governor race. By thirteen points. 24 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 4: The democratic margin in Virginia was much larger than expected, 25 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 4: and it carried down down ballot that lots of Republican 26 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 4: legislatures legislators lost their seats as well. So I think 27 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 4: what it shows is that there is a wish that 28 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 4: Donald Trump would spend more time on domestic issues and 29 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 4: that they were hoping that the economy would get better 30 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 4: and if Trump can pay attention to that, perhaps next 31 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 4: year will be better for the GOP. 32 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 1: Lot of chat about the polls. Were the polls a problem? 33 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 1: Did the polls misread it? 34 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 4: I think the polls will misread it. I think that 35 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 4: there was a problem in the United States is trying 36 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 4: to figure out who's going to vote in lower turnout 37 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 4: elections as opposed to presidential elections, and a lot of 38 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 4: the problems in the polls were because they misunderstood how 39 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 4: many Democrats would come out to vote. The fact is 40 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 4: the electorate was much more democratic than the poll had expected, 41 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 4: and that was a big reason why they underestimated democratic 42 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 4: victoric margin. 43 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:09,239 Speaker 1: I also heard reported saying that historically speaking, when the 44 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: government has closed down, especially in a place like Virginia, 45 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: when the government has closed down, it is always blamed 46 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: on the Republicans, rightly or wrongly. Is that true? 47 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 4: It usually is blamed on the Republicans because they're viewed 48 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 4: as the anti government party. Polling had shown before the 49 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 4: last week or so that it was much less so 50 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:31,519 Speaker 4: this time, but I think it's hard to avoid that conclusion. 51 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 4: One of the things that happened in the last week 52 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 4: before elections is people were talking about the shutdown affecting 53 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 4: forty two million people who get food benefits from the 54 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 4: United States. People were having their airplanes disrupted because there 55 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 4: weren't enough air traffic controllers to put them up in 56 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 4: the sky, and it meant that it was beginning to 57 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 4: affect real people in their real lives, not just an 58 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 4: abstract thing. And that always hurts the party that doesn't 59 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 4: like the government as much. 60 00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: What do the Democrats do about Munda? I mean, shouldn't 61 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: Schumer and no one loved him? Is he trouble or 62 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: is he the nonsense to the Democrats problem? 63 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 4: He's probably not the answer to the Democrats problem. That 64 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 4: the people who led the landslides and more moderate states 65 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 4: are more moderate Democrats. He won a very democratic city 66 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 4: with barely a majority of the vote. It's really a 67 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 4: question of how he's going to govern. If he governs 68 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 4: as a pragmatic left leaning politician, he'll be less of 69 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 4: a problem. If he comes out of the box and 70 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,959 Speaker 4: is somebody who seems to be grabbing for more than 71 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 4: he ought to be getting, pushing to ideological agenda, that 72 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 4: could be a real problem, but real depends on what 73 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 4: Mom Donnie does once he takes office. 74 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: The prop thing Prop fifty in California, we've seen taxas 75 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 1: and things. Is just America going to rewrite itself silly 76 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: between now and twenty six. 77 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 4: Unfortunately, a number of states will. We've got more states 78 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 4: that are trying to redistrict Virginia. The Democrats are trying 79 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 4: to do that to offset some of what's going on 80 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 4: in these states. So I think or at least three, 81 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 4: maybe as many as ten more states will redraw their lines. 82 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 4: And it is crazy. We haven't had this happen in 83 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 4: well over one hundred years. 84 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, they said the economy played upot. I can't get 85 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: a read on the economy, Henry. I mean I read 86 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:17,799 Speaker 1: a lot about what they talk about the K shape. 87 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: In other words, if you've got big jobs and big money, 88 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,840 Speaker 1: you're laughing. If you haven't your own food stamps. You 89 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 1: got trouble. What's the state of the American economy in 90 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: people's minds and how does that affect the abug. 91 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 4: I think for people in the lower third, they the 92 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 4: data show that they have still not recovered their standard 93 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 4: of living that they had before President Biden took office. 94 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 4: I think they expected a return to the fast increases 95 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 4: in real wages that they had in Trump. They're not 96 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 4: getting it, and I think they're frustrated. For the middle 97 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 4: it's a worrying time. You're generally secure, you're keeping ahead 98 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 4: with inflation, but you're not really gaining very much. So 99 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 4: I think for the economy, it's not bad for most people, 100 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 4: but it's not good for most people either. And it's 101 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 4: that luke warmness when people thought Trump would be better 102 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 4: that is disappointing them. 103 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 1: Alan if you were a Republican strategist sitting here right 104 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,239 Speaker 1: now this November morning, would you be freaking out about 105 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: twenty six or not? Right now? 106 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 4: A freaking out is too strong of a word, But 107 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 4: the fact is they got slapped upside the head. The 108 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 4: president's job approval rating nationally is at forty four percent. 109 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 4: That's too low to have any chance of folding the house. 110 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 4: Regardless of how many lines you redraw. What you've got 111 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 4: to do is make some mid course adjustments. This is 112 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 4: like halftime at a rugby match or a football game. 113 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 4: A good coach figures out if they're team's behind, whether 114 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 4: they have to do different, and you've gone in the 115 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 4: second half. Plenty of times we've seen games of two 116 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 4: completely different halves. Could very well be that twenty six 117 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 4: is different from twenty five. If it's not, they're going 118 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 4: to depend on Democratic screw ups to help them, And 119 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 4: I'm not sure it's a good idea to expect your 120 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 4: enemy to go. 121 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: I watched it. I watched Kevin you some speech. Is 122 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: he good for twenty eight? And if he is, does 123 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,039 Speaker 1: he play well? 124 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 2: Wait? 125 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 4: Gavin Newsom is very quickly becoming the favorite for the Democrat. 126 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 4: I think he is playing his party very well. But 127 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 4: the fact is he will have a California to defend. 128 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 4: The California that is high tax, high regulation, often places 129 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:20,039 Speaker 4: high crime. And he is culturally to the left of Americans, 130 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 4: and stylistically he's very smooth on TV, but he's not 131 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 4: the sort of person who dresses, talks, and acts the 132 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 4: way a family making fifty five thousand dollars a year 133 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 4: in a small town does. And that's the swing voter 134 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 4: in a lot of these states, so to be seen. 135 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 4: But he's definitely the Democratic front runner. 136 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 1: Now, I don't know whether you I mean, I'm sure 137 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: you're interested in doing what you view? Is this scouts 138 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 1: thing today? The Supreme Court and the tariffs. Has that 139 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: got the potential to blow up in the Trump administration's 140 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: vice or not? 141 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 4: Well? I have always expected that the Supreme Court would 142 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,359 Speaker 4: rule the tariffs to be an unconstitutional exercise of power. 143 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 4: To me, the question is if they don't do that, 144 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 4: I'll be shocked if there would be a constitutional sea 145 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 4: chain in the way American government works. And then the 146 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 4: question is how does Trump respond? And he could very 147 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 4: well below the response. 148 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:08,559 Speaker 1: All right, nice to talk to Henry. Always a pleasure, 149 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: Henry Alsome American Pulse does. For more from the mic 150 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. It'd be from 151 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.