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Speaker 1: Let's have a look at housing. We've got new intel

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Speaker 1: into where our housing market is this morning call Logic.

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Speaker 1: Home value growth dipped by zero point two percent in May.

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Speaker 1: That was after the zero point one percent fall in April.

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Speaker 1: So is that a trend? Brings the average property value

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Speaker 1: across the country to a bit over nine hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty one thousand, still eleven percent below the peak. Core

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Speaker 1: Logic's chief property economist Kelvin Davidson back with this, Calvin,

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Speaker 1: very good morning to you. Good morning, although it is

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Speaker 1: up one percent on a year ago. So if we've

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Speaker 1: seen a lift that's now stalling, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 2: Think that's pretty much the way to sum it up.

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Speaker 2: I don't think we've entered a new downturn, but certainly

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Speaker 2: the momentum that we had satal in the last year,

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Speaker 2: in the first few months of this year has gone

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Speaker 2: And so yeah, they have a kind of a mindset shift.

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Speaker 1: Going on the home And I think, and how much

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Speaker 1: weight do you place on a month versus a quarter

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Speaker 1: versus a year.

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Speaker 2: Oh well, I'm going to sound like an economist here.

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Speaker 2: It probably depends a little bit. I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: probably you want to look over three or four or

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Speaker 2: five months. Really, it's tricky. You're dangerous through looking at

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Speaker 2: just one month on its own. So I'm just just saying,

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Speaker 2: not not a trend yet terms of a new downturn, but

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Speaker 2: certainly that momentum has gone, and it's consistent with high

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Speaker 2: mortgage trades, lots of listening, so that those kinds of

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Speaker 2: things which are subsuring prices.

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Speaker 1: And how do we explain say a place like Auckland

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Speaker 1: which is down zero point eight on the month, but

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Speaker 1: we've got all this immigration, we haven't got enough houses,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. How do we explain that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, I think there's there's a few things there.

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Speaker 2: I mean a lot of the migrations going to the

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Speaker 2: rental sectors. So we are still seeing rental pressure in Auckland,

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Speaker 2: but in terms of house prices, there's lots of choice

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Speaker 2: out there for buyers listening to risen no more. We

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Speaker 2: try to still a challenge for affordability as always in

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Speaker 2: au in Auckland. And also there's a lot of new

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Speaker 2: property market in terms of net builds that all those

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Speaker 2: townhouses being built. So yeah, that some of those factors

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Speaker 2: are prevalent elsewhere too, but they are showing up in Auckland,

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Speaker 2: so certainly one to watch.

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Speaker 1: And would you have said that first time grant staff

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Speaker 1: the DCI, which isn't here yet but will be, has

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Speaker 1: that stuff worked its way in yet or not?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean it's early days for those things, and

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Speaker 2: to be fair, I'm not sure they will have much

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Speaker 2: in an impact anyway. I mean first time grants were

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Speaker 2: a nice little top up. I don't think it was

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Speaker 2: the main thing for a lot of buyers, So I

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Speaker 2: suspect your time buyers will carry on. BCI is probably

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Speaker 2: not going to do anything to trade away anyway because

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Speaker 2: rbit rates are the factor there. So so I think

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Speaker 2: a lot of those changes are going to be sealing neutral.

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Speaker 2: WELVR rules are loosen that that might sound positive, but

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Speaker 2: of course if you put in a low deposit and

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Speaker 2: mortgage high orbitrates. So I think mortgage rates are still

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Speaker 2: the challenge.

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Speaker 1: And the good news out of it. Christian Hamilton's needing

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Speaker 1: up what do we what do we put it down to?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's that's a patching just going on

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Speaker 2: at the moment. So you are seeing variability and it's

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Speaker 2: just symptomatic of the high mortgite rates. Again, lots of

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Speaker 2: listings out there. Some markets are up in one month

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Speaker 2: and down the next month. I think that's why it's

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Speaker 2: a little bit dangerous to read too much into this.

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Speaker 2: I think people sort of if anyone's out there jumping

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Speaker 2: up and down about a new downturn, I think that's

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Speaker 2: probably premature, but certain in the momentum has just faded

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Speaker 2: out a little bit in the past couple of months.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff Kelvin appreciated very much. Kelvin Davidson called Lodge.

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Speaker 1: You can't remember which bank was, I think it was

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Speaker 1: wes pat could havebin the being said materially altered their

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Speaker 1: forecast for the rest of the year. They had us

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Speaker 1: up at five percent calendar year, and they've done and

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Speaker 1: that seems to dovetail in with with what's unfolded in

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Speaker 1: those particular numbers. For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast,

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Speaker 1: listen live to News Talks at b from six am weekdays,

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