1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,160 Speaker 1: So fifty points it was. The Reserve Bank tells us 2 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: the cash right remains restrictive, so another fifty next month 3 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: isn't a guarantee, but the momentum appears to be there now. 4 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:09,559 Speaker 1: The politicians leapt all over and of course suggesting better 5 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:12,320 Speaker 1: days are ahead. ASP Chief Executive Victoria short with us 6 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 1: Victoria morning. 7 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, good morning, Mike. 8 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: As an exercise and fiscal management over the last couple 9 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: of years, as we come out the other side of this, 10 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: how would you judge this this move? 11 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 2: Look, I think it's great news for households and it's 12 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: great news for businesses. It means that inflation is getting 13 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:35,279 Speaker 2: down to in that target range, and even though it's 14 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 2: going to take time to flow through. I think the 15 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 2: big question everyone's asking though, is where too from here? 16 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 2: So I think that's the thing that we're really turning 17 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: our attention to. 18 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: Do you have any answers on that? Because the commentary 19 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 1: leading into yesterday was anywhere between twenty five and seventy 20 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: five and I've not seen that before. And there seems 21 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: to be some ankst around what comes next as well. 22 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: Does anyone actually know what's going on? 23 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, obviously the our central bank will make 24 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 2: their own independent decisions. But what we think is that 25 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 2: four seventy five the cash rate is still what we 26 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:12,199 Speaker 2: describe as restrictive, and we think that the neutral rate 27 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 2: is around three point two five. So you can take 28 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 2: from that that there's a bit to go and we 29 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 2: always have to be careful though that. You know, world 30 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 2: events can change. But we do think that there is 31 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: further cuts ahead. We think it could be another fifty 32 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 2: basis points in November, but we think that will continue 33 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 2: next year. You know, we're just going to make sure 34 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 2: that inflation keeps coming down to their target range. 35 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, what's your sense on that? I was reading an 36 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: interesting thing out of Australia. Are the savings rates in 37 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: Australia are way higher there than they have been here 38 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: through this whole COVID period? In other words, are we 39 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: the sort of people who, when given a chance, will 40 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: run with it and start spending with alacrity or not? 41 00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 2: Yes, we do like to spend the care and we 42 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 2: certainly borrow more than we save, so you know, we 43 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 2: would always say that you think about your financial wellbeing 44 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 2: and if you're not sure, come and talk to us 45 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 2: and we can help. 46 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: What I also read yesterday was zero point I think 47 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 1: it was zero point four percent, or might be zero 48 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: point six percent of mortgages were under some sort of 49 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: stress in general, which means the vast majority arn't are 50 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: we actually okay, and that we'll be going into the 51 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: reserve banks thinking. In other words, for all the dire talk, 52 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:31,079 Speaker 1: it's not as dire as it could be. Therefore they 53 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: need to be careful. 54 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, so look, I think that's certainly what we're seeing. 55 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: We're actually seeing that households and businesses have actually navigated 56 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 2: this difficult period pretty well. And when I have a 57 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 2: look at our data of customers who are getting extra support, 58 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 2: those who are feeling stressed because of the interest rates 59 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 2: are about a third of our customers that we're supporting. 60 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 2: The other customers it's for actual sort of life events. 61 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 2: It's health reasons, losing a job, it's divorced, it's things 62 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 2: like that. So it's true that the majority of the 63 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 2: people that we're supporting as a result of life events 64 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 2: rather than interest rates. 65 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: Good insight. I appreciate it very much. Victoria's short Who's 66 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: the ASP chief Executive? 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