1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,040
Speaker 1: Right, we have a number. Inflation is unchanged two point

2
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:05,920
Speaker 1: two percent for the year of December, non tradeables coming down.

3
00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,600
Speaker 1: Economists and the pundits still picking a half a percent

4
00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:11,680
Speaker 1: o CR cut next month. So does this give the

5
00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,319
Speaker 1: banks some confidence start dropping rates? Steve Yukovic is the

6
00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:17,680
Speaker 1: QI Bank CEOs with me this morning. Steve, Good morning,

7
00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:20,360
Speaker 1: morning Ron. Does it give you confidence?

8
00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:22,759
Speaker 2: Yeah? It does? And I think you know where we

9
00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:26,560
Speaker 2: price rates from, which is the two year mark, is

10
00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,040
Speaker 2: actually looking pretty stable. So I think you know, we've

11
00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:30,680
Speaker 2: seen some cuts over the last couple of weeks. I'd

12
00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,680
Speaker 2: expect after this number we'll see some more cuts next week.

13
00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,879
Speaker 2: From you, yeah, I think so it looks very very

14
00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:38,919
Speaker 2: likely for us, but I also think all banks will

15
00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,320
Speaker 2: be in the same. But waiting for that CPI number,

16
00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:43,479
Speaker 2: seeing that it's sort of very very close to that

17
00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:46,880
Speaker 2: RBN zed target being at two percent, I think gives

18
00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:47,919
Speaker 2: ritten a bit of confidence.

19
00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:50,639
Speaker 1: Are you worried about I mean, obviously the non tradeable

20
00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,000
Speaker 1: coming down starting to come down is good, but are

21
00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:54,440
Speaker 1: you worried about the exchange rate?

22
00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,200
Speaker 2: Here we are, I mean, for your listeners, the fact

23
00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:01,000
Speaker 2: that our interest rates are coming down. New Zealand dollar

24
00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,440
Speaker 2: less attractive, which means everything that we import, like petrol

25
00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,960
Speaker 2: and things like that goes up in price. So yeah,

26
00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,640
Speaker 2: that is a worry, But ultimately it looks like people's

27
00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,279
Speaker 2: confidence is picking up slightly and we think the second

28
00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,279
Speaker 2: half of this calendar year will be much better.

29
00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,400
Speaker 1: So you think you'll bring your two year rate down

30
00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:20,039
Speaker 1: next week? How low do you think you'll go?

31
00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:22,880
Speaker 2: Well, I think we should expect to see it come

32
00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,360
Speaker 2: down by half a percent, you know, over the next

33
00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,080
Speaker 2: I think next two to three months. So you know

34
00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:30,120
Speaker 2: that we're really confident that we're going to see a

35
00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,560
Speaker 2: fifty point cut in February, as you mentioned.

36
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,559
Speaker 1: So you'll be down around five Yeah, I think.

37
00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,000
Speaker 2: That's where the rates are going to come down. I mean, well,

38
00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:38,880
Speaker 2: obviously vary by two, but I do think you know,

39
00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,280
Speaker 2: we're going to see sea rates around the five percent

40
00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:44,640
Speaker 2: mark for sure by when. Well, I think we're going

41
00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:46,760
Speaker 2: to see a cut in February of half a percent.

42
00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,320
Speaker 2: I think it's a little less certain about whether the

43
00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,520
Speaker 2: next cut is twenty five points and whether it happens

44
00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,440
Speaker 2: in April or May, but I think that trend is

45
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,000
Speaker 2: absolutely that we're going to see an OCR around you know,

46
00:01:58,080 --> 00:01:59,880
Speaker 2: three point twenty five percent something like that.

47
00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,800
Speaker 1: But are you saying that that will that will you know,

48
00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,760
Speaker 1: percent for percent cut your mortgage rates too?

49
00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,160
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think so. I mean, it won't happen all

50
00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,120
Speaker 2: in one cut, I don't think, Ryan, But I do

51
00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:12,480
Speaker 2: think that's where how rates will come down.

52
00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,360
Speaker 1: Okay, interesting, your one year rate, you haven't I noticed

53
00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,000
Speaker 1: you didn't move it last time five point seven nine percent?

54
00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:19,880
Speaker 1: Why didn't you move that when you move the others?

55
00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,160
Speaker 1: And do you think that will change this time around?

56
00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,440
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think so. I mean, ultimately the shorter term

57
00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,400
Speaker 2: rates like OCA helped that shorter term and mortgage rate

58
00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,280
Speaker 2: come down. So you know, there was still a little

59
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,320
Speaker 2: bit of uncertainty about the CPI and so we've got

60
00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:34,880
Speaker 2: that number in the bag now, so we know what

61
00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:36,839
Speaker 2: we're dealing with. So I think, you know, we will

62
00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,600
Speaker 2: see rates come down across the board. But I do think,

63
00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,760
Speaker 2: you know, longer term, maybe in a couple of years time,

64
00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:44,920
Speaker 2: we're sort of it's a little less certain about you know,

65
00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,160
Speaker 2: whether the rates are sort of going to hang around

66
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:48,919
Speaker 2: where they are now.

67
00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:50,239
Speaker 1: Do you what's going to happen to them?

68
00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,600
Speaker 2: Well? I think you know, we you could see inflation

69
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:55,280
Speaker 2: start to creep back in. You know, we see a

70
00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,520
Speaker 2: bit more activity. The lower dollar will as you say,

71
00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,560
Speaker 2: for tradeaballs and any anything important will be more expensive.

72
00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,440
Speaker 2: That sort of seas inflation creep in. But I mean,

73
00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,360
Speaker 2: if you look at what was involved in the CPI

74
00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,840
Speaker 2: and some of where you know the upward trenders, you know,

75
00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,440
Speaker 2: some quite nasty stuff their household so rentals, rental rates

76
00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,760
Speaker 2: were still at four point two percent. You know, things

77
00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,560
Speaker 2: you can't control, like council rates were up twelve percentF

78
00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,400
Speaker 2: he is internationally app six point six percent, domestic if

79
00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,920
Speaker 2: he is at nine point three percent, so you know,

80
00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,720
Speaker 2: offset by say vegetables because of the season coming down

81
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:30,400
Speaker 2: by eleven and a half percent. So there's quite a

82
00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,440
Speaker 2: lot of moving parts. So you know, I think, as

83
00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:35,520
Speaker 2: I say, confidence coming back, and I think that's positive.

84
00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,080
Speaker 1: Steve, thank you for that. Steve Yukovich KEEI Bank CEO

85
00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,160
Speaker 1: with us. If you're looking to get a home loan,

86
00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,720
Speaker 1: I guess the message is that rates will be coming

87
00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,080
Speaker 1: down next week potentially for Keevy Bank. For more from

88
00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,280
Speaker 1: the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. It'd

89
00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:53,160
Speaker 1: be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio,