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Speaker 1: Jamie. Hello, Hello Hea. Do you reckon this war is

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Speaker 1: good for dairy prices? Well, I don't know. I'll be

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Speaker 1: interested with tonight's Global Dairy Trade auction. Incidentally, heather useless

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Speaker 1: trivia time, the four hundredth Global Dairy Trade events since

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Speaker 1: we kicked them off in two thousand and eight. They

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Speaker 1: used to be on a once a month basis. These

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Speaker 1: days thereon twice monthly, the first two Tuesday or Wednesday mornings,

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Speaker 1: or first and third Wednesday mornings of the month. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So as Trump's wore good for dairy prices, there's long

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Speaker 1: been a theory of correlation between whole milk powder and oil,

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Speaker 1: and if you believe the futures market, my guy at

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Speaker 1: at Jarden, Mike McIntyre said, whole milk powder could be flat,

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Speaker 1: but skim milk powder up two percent. Isn't it amazing

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Speaker 1: that things could possibly go up when we're in such

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Speaker 1: uncertain times? Apparently on the OTAR on the Chicago Mercantile

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Speaker 1: ex has been a massive price lift for skim milk powder.

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Speaker 1: They're currently getting nearly four thousand US dollars per ton.

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Speaker 1: Our last auction for skim milk powder was it three

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Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty dollars us potent, so there's a

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Speaker 1: fair bit of upside their futures market also picking amf

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Speaker 1: and butter to lift by one to one and a

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Speaker 1: half percent. So we'll watch this one with interest, Heather.

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Speaker 1: But it looks like there may be a correlation between

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Speaker 1: the price of oil and whole milk powder. Okay, and listen,

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Speaker 1: can you explain to me what is going on. What

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Speaker 1: do you think is going to happen to fertilizer as

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Speaker 1: a result of the war. Well, I can tell you

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Speaker 1: one thing that's going to happen to fertilizer as a

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Speaker 1: price of the as a result of the war, and

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Speaker 1: it's already happened. It's going to get a hell of

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Speaker 1: a lot more expensive. I spoke to Calvin Wickham, who's

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Speaker 1: the chief executive of Balance Agre Nutrients, our biggest fertilizer

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Speaker 1: co op in this country. I think they're responsible for

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Speaker 1: roughly fifty percent of the market share. The other big

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Speaker 1: players Raven down there slightly less than that. Look, they've

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Speaker 1: got enough fertilized for our autumn needs traditionally on sheep

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Speaker 1: and beef farms. Anyhow, that's when the super phosphate, the

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Speaker 1: maintenance fertilizer would go on, and the superphosphate hasn't been

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Speaker 1: as affected as badly as the nitrogenous fertilizers. And we're

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Speaker 1: a bit different from Australia as well here in New

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Speaker 1: Zealand because the climate. We plant most of our crops

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Speaker 1: in the spring, whereas in Australia, they do all their seeding,

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Speaker 1: especially for grain, in the autumn, and they're heading into

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Speaker 1: that season right now and they're really worried about a

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Speaker 1: not having enough diesel and b not having enough especially

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Speaker 1: nitrogen fertilizers like UREA and DAP in that so we're

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Speaker 1: worried about more importantly what's going to happen in springtime.

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Speaker 1: Apparently well, I was told today that fertilizer is subject

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Speaker 1: to the same pricing effectively as oil. It's priced at

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Speaker 1: the time of shipment. You can't buy it in advance. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: there's significant nutrient commodities shipped through the Strait of Hermuz.

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Speaker 1: Something like forty percent of the world's supply of nitrogenous fertilizers,

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Speaker 1: that's the stuff that's responsible for feeding half the people

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Speaker 1: in the world, goes through that passage of water or

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Speaker 1: from that region fifty percent of ours does. Already we've

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Speaker 1: seen prices increase for nitrogenous fertilizers circa thirty percent, and

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Speaker 1: Calvin said today it could go It looks like it's

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Speaker 1: going to go as high as fifty percent. However, a

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Speaker 1: final comment here that there could be some good news

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Speaker 1: on the horizon because Balanzagri Nutrients has a urea plant

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Speaker 1: in Capuni Taranaki. There there was talk of it closing down,

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Speaker 1: especially when the previous government decided to limit the gas

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Speaker 1: supplies and all that sort of stuff. They were running

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Speaker 1: out of gas. They've managed to get some more. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: what's happening at the moment A bit like I guess

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Speaker 1: Marsden point. This could be another Marsden point. We need

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Speaker 1: to keep plants like Pooney and Marston point open. We

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Speaker 1: need to be more resilient when it comes to fertilizer

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Speaker 1: and fuel. So watch the space with Capooney. A plant

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Speaker 1: that was going to be mothboard might make a renaissance.

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Speaker 1: That's a very good point that you make, Jamie. Thanks

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Speaker 1: very much, Jammick Mackay, Host of the Country. For more

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Speaker 1: from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive listen live to news talks.

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