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Speaker 1: Now, Donald Trump, as I told you earlier, has already

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Speaker 1: promised on social media today that he's going to hit

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Speaker 1: Mexico and Canada with a twenty five percent tariff on

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Speaker 1: all all our products coming into the USA. You'll do

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Speaker 1: that on the first day, and if China doesn't stop

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Speaker 1: the illegal drug trade, they're going to hit with ten

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Speaker 1: percent on top of everything else. Informeatric's principal economist, Brad

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Speaker 1: Olson is with us.

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Speaker 2: Hey, Brad, good evening.

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Speaker 1: I didn't realize that we would be exposed to this directly,

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Speaker 1: but I mean by the looks of things, Fisher and

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Speaker 1: pikel they do manufacturing in Mexico and so they and

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Speaker 1: then important to the export into the US, so they

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Speaker 1: could be hit, can't they.

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Speaker 2: That's right? And I think you know, it's becoming clearer

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Speaker 2: and clearer now that any changes or any moves in

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Speaker 2: the trade space do have ramifications for US, either directly

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Speaker 2: or indirectly in terms of how trade activity plays out.

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Speaker 2: I think surprising as well. You'll remember I think he

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Speaker 2: had probably a conversation that we had a couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks back, wondering, you know, would this actually be the

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Speaker 2: sort of policy that Trump would implement quite quickly, because

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Speaker 2: he'd been talking about you know, retribution and deportations and

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Speaker 2: some of quite a lot before then. But it looks like,

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Speaker 2: again the tariff policy is not so much an economic policy.

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Speaker 2: It's more again part of you know, the retribution going on,

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Speaker 2: and in this case it's around open borders and sort

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Speaker 2: of drug access, and Trump saying, well, look, if you

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Speaker 2: know these are fental and similar still comes over the borders,

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Speaker 2: then these tariffs will remain so still big, big ramifications.

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Speaker 2: And the fact that the pre incoming US president wants

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Speaker 2: to do that on day one does highlight that we're

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Speaker 2: in for quite a ride when it comes to these

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Speaker 2: sort of trade flows and trade changes.

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Speaker 1: But okay, so immediately immediately there's reaction, right our dollar

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Speaker 1: drops against the US by something like a third of

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Speaker 1: a US sense, and that it recovers a little bit,

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Speaker 1: and there's a drop off in Fisher and Pickel's it is,

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Speaker 1: are people overreacting to what he says because he might

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Speaker 1: just be chatting like he does, oh exactly.

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Speaker 2: I think, to be honest that the market reaction is

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Speaker 2: probably pricing in a bit of that jitteriness. So I

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Speaker 2: suspect that, you know, if there was. If this was

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Speaker 2: already a signed, sealed, delivered document, they'd probably be a

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Speaker 2: much stronger market reaction than we've seen. So I think

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Speaker 2: what you are seeing is people going okay, this is

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Speaker 2: more of a live conversation than it might have been,

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Speaker 2: say a week ago, but definitely not locked in. You

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Speaker 2: saw that in the likes of the share markets, particularly

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Speaker 2: across parts of Asia as well, going okay, this is

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Speaker 2: going to be a bit more of a direct sort

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Speaker 2: of focus coming through, particularly with their additional ten percent

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Speaker 2: tariff being levied on China apparently, and again we'll sort

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Speaker 2: of wait and see what happens day one, day two,

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Speaker 2: But you're right, there is a lot of uncertainly, a

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Speaker 2: lot of questions out there. I think the thing that

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Speaker 2: probably we're thinking about a lot in New Zealand is one,

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Speaker 2: as you've just profiled with Fish and Parka. You know,

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Speaker 2: where is that exposure for us potentially indirectly, but also

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Speaker 2: if tariffs do come through and they are widened outside

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Speaker 2: of Mexico, Canada and China, what sort of potential is

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Speaker 2: there maybe for New Zealand to get an exemption because

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Speaker 2: that will be probably that's going to be the hot

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Speaker 2: ticket or the hot property item when it comes to

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Speaker 2: trade negotiations, because Trump does look likely to put some

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Speaker 2: of these bigger tariffs.

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Speaker 1: One interesting Brad, Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Brad Awson,

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Speaker 1: Infimetric Principal Economist. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,

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Speaker 1: listen live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays,

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