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Speaker 1: AP's latest update, inflation peaks at four percent mid year

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Speaker 1: growth down one point six points from two point nine

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Speaker 1: to one point three. So basically we go for the

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Speaker 1: year and growth from nearly three to a little over one.

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Speaker 1: Cameron Bagri independent economists with us, is that a conservative

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Speaker 1: number from numbers from ASP or about where you would

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Speaker 1: think it should be at.

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Speaker 2: It's probably around your central scenario at the moment. But look,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of variance around that central scenario. If

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Speaker 2: anybody can give me a sort of firm idea or

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Speaker 2: any economists in regard to how long moves is going

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Speaker 2: to be closed or how on this event is going

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Speaker 2: to last for all, we'll start to put some firm

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Speaker 2: numbers at the moment. But in all, honestly, at the

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Speaker 2: moment we're whistling, Dixie, how long this thing is going

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Speaker 2: to take place?

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Speaker 1: It called me battle hardened. But at least we're not

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Speaker 1: talking about recession.

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Speaker 2: Oh I guess yeah, hens a your definition of recession.

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Speaker 2: So if you have a look at what's called GDP capita, Ryan,

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Speaker 2: it's still down three point four percent speak around three

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Speaker 2: years ago. So in the terms of level of GDP,

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Speaker 2: we're still climbing out an economic hole, and obviously the

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Speaker 2: ASP's forecast, which I agree with, time is going to

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Speaker 2: move backwards in the gym quarter. Now that my technically

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Speaker 2: not technically buying the a recession, because for to get

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Speaker 2: a recession you need to go back of the two

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Speaker 2: quarters in a row. But you've got the level of

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Speaker 2: GDP still three point four percent down from your feek.

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Speaker 2: It's still going to feel like it's pretty tough out there.

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Speaker 1: Break crude price futures before I came on this morning

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Speaker 1: about one hundred and twelve bucks in barrel. If we

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Speaker 1: get a headline that says boots on the ground, what

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Speaker 1: happens to that price.

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Speaker 2: I saw a headline over the over the weekend, which

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Speaker 2: is one of the reasons we're seeing all the prices

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Speaker 2: move back up, is that your ground evasion, you've got

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Speaker 2: to build up the troops in the Middle East. And

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Speaker 2: the commentary around that was that if you're going into

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Speaker 2: a ground invasion, while you're talking months, you're not talking

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Speaker 2: weeks in regard to the how long this thing's going

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Speaker 2: to last. So yeah, let's go on in regards the

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Speaker 2: markets are thinking, if you look at the forward price

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Speaker 2: for crude oil, you know the forward price is still

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Speaker 2: what's called down and sloping I e. And six months,

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Speaker 2: we're expecting lower oil prices as opposed to higher all prices.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's anybody's guest now in regard to what's

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Speaker 2: going on. You love the Whoshi's down and Yemen and

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Speaker 2: there opening up. What looks like it could be a

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Speaker 2: seeking potential. You choke points so that the world's on edge.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm fiersty. I'm a little bit surprised well markets,

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Speaker 2: particular equities have taken this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they've been pretty resilient. Would you be rationing already?

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Speaker 2: I'd be at level two.

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Speaker 1: Cameron Begory. Appreciate your time this morning. Cameron Begory, Independent Economists.

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Speaker 2: For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge.

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