1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,520 Speaker 1: The epic fury, the economic workings here at the bottom 2 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: of the world. The Commerce Commission's been asked to keep 3 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: an eye up for petrol price gouging. Ministerial Oversight Committee 4 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: has been set up fuel stocks both here and on 5 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: the water Seat and Fine Nikola Willis as the Finance 6 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: Minister and is with us. Good morning, Good morning. Make 7 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: I watched what you were trying to do with the 8 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: Prime Minister yesterday afternoon. Do you think you got your 9 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: message across? 10 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 2: Yes? I did. I did. We are very much of 11 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 2: the view that this is a time that calls for 12 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 2: call heads. We could act in haste and regret at leisure. 13 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: We need to take dicisions consistent with the national interest 14 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 2: and to have a stronger prishtful management and ensure that 15 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 2: we are leading our response to potential fuel security issues 16 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 2: and the implications that will have to the economy. We're 17 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 2: doing that, we set out how we're doing it. 18 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: I gave a list of countries that have reacted already 19 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: in fuel caps and prices and discounts in four day 20 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: weeks and universities being closed in various parts of Asia. 21 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: How much pressure do you feel will come on you 22 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: for people who want a quick fix solution to their 23 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: problem of this dregs. 24 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 2: Well, we're very conscious that the price at the pump 25 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 2: is something that impacts not every New Zealander but also 26 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 2: our freight costs and costs across the economy. In the 27 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 2: first instance, however, we do need to see what unfolds internationally, 28 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 2: whether of course stocks are released, but through the International 29 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 2: Energy Agency, what responses the US and others have. We've 30 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,680 Speaker 2: seen the oil price has spiked but then come back again, 31 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 2: and so we're conscious that we need to understand what 32 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:35,199 Speaker 2: that picture looks like before we overreact, and that any 33 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 2: money that we throw at this problem right now is 34 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 2: money that we have to borrow. And so we need 35 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 2: to be prudent about New Zealand's the school position. 36 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: And do you think people get that. 37 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 2: I think people understand that there are international events unfolding 38 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 2: at past and they wouldn't want to see the government 39 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 2: having a knee jerk reaction, but to be considered and 40 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 2: clear about the trade offs and opportunity costs that would 41 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 2: exist with any immediate risk response. 42 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 1: We had given this as early days and given how 43 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: fluid it is, and we won't name names, but there 44 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: was a person questioning desperately yesterday for specifics and numbers 45 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: and facts and stats. Does that mentality worry you that 46 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 1: we go into this blind panic of guessing and second guessing, 47 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: if not third guessing what we can't possibly know. 48 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, I think New Zealanders will be realistic, which is, 49 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 2: of course I can't tell you right now exactly what 50 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 2: this means for the precise inflation number in the next quarter, 51 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 2: nor can I tell you what it means for GDP 52 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 2: growth forecasts for the coming year. Because there are many 53 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 2: events unfolding at pace. We do have an obligation to 54 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 2: share information transparently with New Zealanders, to let them know 55 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 2: of the potential scenarios that can play out, and to 56 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 2: assure them that we're positioning ourselves to respond sensibly and 57 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 2: we'll keep doing that. 58 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: Are you comfortable? And how did we come to the 59 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: twenty five days plus whatever's on the water by way 60 00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: of fuel supply when places like Europe have thirty plus 61 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 1: high thirties effect Well. 62 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 2: That minimum stockholding obligation came into fourth in twenty twenty five, 63 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 2: and at the moment we have around fifty days fuel 64 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 2: combined onshore and very close to arriving on the water 65 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 2: and fuel companies are not reporting issues with supply chains currently, 66 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 2: they're reporting healthy stock levels and shipments preceding as scheduled. 67 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 2: We're also members of the International Energy Agency and that 68 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,079 Speaker 2: requires us to hold fuel stock's equivalent to ninety days 69 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 2: of demand, and we meet that both through the domestic 70 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 2: stockholding are just outlined, but also through the use of 71 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 2: stock reservation agreements that we have with various suppliers and 72 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 2: other countries. So we meet that ninety day obligation that 73 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 2: other countries have in a combination of ways. 74 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,839 Speaker 1: The meeting the G seven finance ministers overnight, they didn't 75 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: pull the trigger on that is that in its own 76 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: way reassuring well. 77 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 2: It tells us that they still think that there are options, 78 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 2: And of course the US Energy Secretary has noted that 79 00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 2: one tanker has transited the strait that they are looking 80 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 2: to restore flows within weeks, not months. All democracies around 81 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 2: the world have an interest in fuel security and not 82 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 2: seeing the price of oil continue to spike, and so 83 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 2: we do expect partners around the world will act sensibly 84 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: in response to these issues. 85 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 1: Do what level of I don't know, optimism do you 86 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 1: have that Trump, Hegseth et cetera. Are right. This is 87 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: a three to six week deal, and we'll be talking 88 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 1: about this in the past tenth in July. 89 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to speculate. I'm conscious there's so much 90 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 2: information they have that I don't have. What I know 91 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: sitting down here in New Zealand is that looking at 92 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 2: a world with countries at war is disturbing, and we 93 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 2: can see that we're not immune from the impacts. This 94 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 2: may a war, but we have a great interest in 95 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 2: peace and normal international relations resuming because we simply can't 96 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: make ourselves immune in the international economic effects. 97 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: Indeed, we cannot. What was sort of yesterday as you 98 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: came up with your forecasts for GDP, forget the war 99 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 1: for a moment. At three percent this year, three percent 100 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: next year, that's about as good as we get, isn't it. 101 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: I mean, it's a good number, and let's celebrate it. 102 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: But that's I mean, that's that's peak times, isn't it. 103 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:19,559 Speaker 2: Yes, Ironically, I got my preliminary budget forecasts last week 104 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 2: and they showed that we were running ahead of schedule. 105 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 2: You'll remember I released forecasts in December. Well, every thing's 106 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 2: been looking better since then, as those numbers had transpired, 107 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 2: with be on track to getting the books back in 108 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 2: balance sooner and net debt would be peaking at a 109 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 2: lower level. That was then This is now. Of course, 110 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 2: events internationally we'll have an impact on those forecasts. But 111 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 2: I simply shared that information to say, well, look, New 112 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,919 Speaker 2: Zealand's coming into this a lot stronger than could have 113 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 2: otherwise been the case. We faced into these challenges from 114 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 2: a good position. 115 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: What's Q four next week? Which comes out? Do you reckon? 116 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,159 Speaker 1: If Q three was one point one? Is Q four closer? 117 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 2: I've been really reluctant to guess the course GDP numbers 118 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 2: because they've been so volatile in recent times, and the Treasury, 119 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank, other bank forecasters haven't picked those numbers correctly. 120 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 2: Treasury are forecasting a zero point seven percent print for 121 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, but we'll wait and see. 122 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,119 Speaker 1: Okay, it's redundant, but I'll ask it anyway, because people 123 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: still raise at Marsden point, was that a catastrophic mistake? 124 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 2: Well, it is the case that not having oil refinery 125 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 2: here does decrease our resilience. It's also the case that 126 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 2: was decisions made under the policy settings of the last government. 127 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,040 Speaker 2: There's no point looking back in anger. We are where 128 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 2: we are and as I say, we do have these 129 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 2: minimum stockholding obligations and good arrangements of countries around the 130 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 2: world that allow us to assure New Zealanders there is 131 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 2: no immediate threat to fuel security. 132 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: Appreciate your time as always, Nicola will as Finance Minister. 133 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: No point looking back in anger. That's pretty much what 134 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: New Zealand First has done for the last three years. 135 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: Of course, I hope be leaving that one go anytime soon. 136 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 1: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 137 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: news Talks at B from six am weekdays, or follow 138 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.