1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,520 Speaker 1: We're back to the vote in the States. How tight 2 00:00:01,560 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: will it be? What do you make of the polls 3 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: and the prediction so far? Will it be clear tonight? 4 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: Mical Rubia's former chief of staff managing partner at fire 5 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: House Strategies, Matt Terrell's beck with us, Matt, very good 6 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:11,159 Speaker 1: morning to you. 7 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 2: Great to be with you. 8 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: There ain't nothing like it you fizzing. 9 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 2: It's a big day, no question, it's an exciting day. 10 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:22,759 Speaker 2: Election day is here. 11 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: As a campaign or as as campaigns? How they compared 12 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: to others in your view? 13 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:31,159 Speaker 2: Well, you know, I'll tell you this is just my 14 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 2: assessment when I'm hearing from people across the country that 15 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 2: I know, I think you are more doubt into this 16 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,919 Speaker 2: race and previous elections I can remember, I think Americans 17 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 2: recognized it's a big election, and so I think people 18 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 2: are dowed in. There's a lot of low propensity voters 19 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 2: who haven't voted before or choosing to vote in this election. 20 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 2: We'll see what that means on election night for these 21 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 2: candidates tonight, but certainly Americans are painful attention to this race. 22 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: Somebody suggested yesterday, I thought it was interesting that the Republicans, 23 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: given the state of the economy. First of all, does 24 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: it all come down to the economy at the end 25 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: of the economy, the economy, economy, Do you think that's it? 26 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 2: Whereas many issues that olver's care about. But I think 27 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 2: you're hitting the nail on the head. You know, look, 28 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: the economy, inflation, border security as well. If you look 29 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 2: at all the point in this race by and large 30 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:17,839 Speaker 2: has shown that those are the top issues that voters 31 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 2: care about. If you're the Trump campaign, you're feeling good 32 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 2: about that. I suspect yeah, simply given that President Trump 33 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 2: has been pulling quite well on those issues. With respect 34 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 2: to the economy, inflation, border security, there's a big issues 35 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 2: in this race. I think that if this race is 36 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 2: about those issues, that's the bare path board for President 37 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 2: Trump tonight. 38 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: Exactly So, the theory being that when so many Americans 39 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: think the economy is not going in the right direction, 40 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: or the country is not going in the right direction, 41 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 1: it's a shoeing for the Republicans. The reason that isn't 42 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: a shoeing for the Republicans is because Trump's a shocking candidate. 43 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: Is that fair or not? 44 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 2: Well, no, tonight, you know the results of this election 45 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 2: will certainly be something that walk unpack here as a nation, 46 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 2: whether President Trump or loses. Here's what I can tell you. 47 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 2: I think that President Trump has more of unified GP 48 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 2: base behind him than he had in twenty sixteen or 49 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 2: twenty twenty. And I also think the Trump campaign feels 50 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 2: good about I suspect the fact that they've been potentially 51 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,239 Speaker 2: making n roads with key voting blocks. It will be 52 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 2: critical in this race that we're traditional Democratic voting blocks. 53 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 2: You know, Democrats typically voted you know, and really made 54 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 2: inroads with Union voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters. 55 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: If you're looking at the polls right now, President Trump 56 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 2: is doing quite well for Republican nominee among Union voters, 57 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 2: black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters. So look, if 58 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 2: you're a Trump campaign, I think you feel a lot 59 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 2: of optimism tonight. They've been making some going instant tonight, 60 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 2: They've been making some inroads into those voting blocks. We'll 61 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 2: see what that means this evening, of course, But I 62 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 2: think for the Trump campaign, you're also feeling good about 63 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 2: early voting. Early voting right now has been truning for Republicans. 64 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 2: You know, Republics been turning out and higher numbers in 65 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 2: this election for early voting in comparison to twenty sixteen 66 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 2: and twenty twenty. But today truly matters. This is a 67 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 2: turnout down. It's election day. Republicans tend to turn out 68 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 2: an election day that's going to matter as well. 69 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 1: Do you believe the polls. 70 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 2: I'm suspicious, particularly given where polls have been and pass 71 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 2: election cycles. I think it's likely a close race, but 72 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 2: there's a good chance that the polls can also be wrong. 73 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,239 Speaker 2: You know. I think there's a good chance that many 74 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 2: voters to be Trump supports could be undersampled. And I 75 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 2: only say that because President Trump in previous elections tends 76 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: to underperform in the polls and overperform on election day. 77 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 2: I think you saw that in a critical state like 78 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 2: Pennsylvania four years ago. President Bien had a fairly significant 79 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: lead in that state in the polls went into election night, 80 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 2: but the heels of the election, he basically won Pennsylvania 81 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 2: by roughly a percentage point. So, you know, look, I 82 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 2: tell people at Tome to adore the polls. I think 83 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 2: the candid should anore the polls and focus today on 84 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 2: voter turnout. You're the Trump campaign I'd say ignore the 85 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 2: polls focused today on turn out every single voter. 86 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: You get what about the money, the money markets, the 87 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: money's heading towards Trump. Do you believe the money. 88 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, So we've seen the betting, Marcus really in favor 89 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 2: of believing that President Trump will win this race. I 90 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 2: think there's a lot of indicators that you would traditionally 91 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 2: look at that show that President Trump farewell could have 92 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 2: a good night tonight, whether it's just the traditional pulling 93 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 2: out there to your point, the betting markets again, that 94 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 2: early vote number, I think is a strong sign for Republicans. 95 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 2: Beny would argue you, and then I just think you 96 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 2: look at the issues and you look at where you 97 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 2: know voters view the country right now. Over seventy percent 98 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:25,919 Speaker 2: of Americans right now get the country's going in the 99 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 2: wrong direction. That's not a good number. If your Vice president, Harris. 100 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 1: What do the dams do if they lose? I mean, 101 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 1: how do I mean just with the whites in the 102 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: inference of that question, you lose to Trump, how do 103 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: you come back from that? 104 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 2: Well, certainly I think if the Democrats lose a night, 105 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 2: you're gonna have the rebrand. And what I mean by 106 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,039 Speaker 2: that is you know, to take two thousand and four, 107 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 2: for example, John Carrey's a Democratic nominee, he loses to 108 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 2: President Bush. I think some of that sentiment debt then, 109 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 2: given how close that race was, and you know, many 110 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 2: voters weren't happy with President Bush. Now elections, some like 111 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 2: present Bush in that election obviously won that election, so 112 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: more did din it. But to your question, I think 113 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 2: it comes down to, you know, just like the Republicans 114 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 2: had to do in twenty twelve, if you have to 115 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 2: rebrand or do almost an autopsy report and think through, Okay, 116 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 2: what is the party going to do going forward to 117 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 2: connect with voters. If you're the Democrat party right now 118 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 2: and it is true that they are losing support among 119 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 2: Union voters and black voters, and young voters and Hispanic voters, 120 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 2: if that's true, that that's a big, big concern. I 121 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 2: think if you're a Democrat out there, not just for 122 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 2: this election but for future elections to count. We'll see 123 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 2: if that's true, and we'll know more tonight. 124 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 1: A couple of scenarios if Trump wins, can they flip 125 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: the Senate? 126 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 2: You know, I think right now the Senate is trending. 127 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 2: I think many would argue, if you look at the polling, 128 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 2: if you believe the polls trending in Republicans favor, I 129 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 2: think there's key races to watch here, such as Montana 130 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 2: and other states that are going to matter. I think 131 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 2: what's interesting to note is that a lot of these 132 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 2: Democrat candidates in places like you know, Pennsylvania, Michigan, they've 133 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 2: been in TV ads with and Trump in them. So 134 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 2: the question is, are these candidates seeing something in are 135 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 2: internal polling that leads in the belief that President Trump 136 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 2: has a lot of momentum in this race. I think 137 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 2: it's a big question mark tradition, these candidates put the 138 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 2: presidential candidates and the Senate candidates and other candidates on ballot. 139 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 2: There are internal pollings gonna be a lot more accurate 140 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 2: than what you and I are seeing in the public. 141 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 2: So I think the question is if you're seeing these 142 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 2: ads that they're putting Trump in, if you're a Democratic candidate, 143 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 2: is at a sign they're seeing something in the water 144 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 2: that Trump has momentum. Here's what I think. I think 145 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 2: whoever wins the presidency tonight, likely the House the Senate 146 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 2: will go with them. President Trump wins, that's gonna be 147 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 2: the case. 148 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: That was my Nix scenario, because the Nick scenario could 149 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: be what if Harris wins, but they flipped the sceenate 150 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: Republican and she's stuck. 151 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,720 Speaker 2: You know, there's there's a chance that could happen with Harris. 152 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 2: I will I will say that just given how the 153 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 2: map is, I think it's more and more likely that 154 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 2: would happen with Harris. Where you have a divided government 155 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 2: here at divide to Congress, excuse me, a divide a 156 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 2: government with respect to the Congress and the presidency and 157 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 2: the Harris win. But look, I think at the end 158 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 2: of the day, it's going to come down to you know, 159 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:01,720 Speaker 2: voters are likely going to go into the voting booth, 160 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 2: and I think most of them are probably going to 161 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 2: vote straight party ticket. You maybe you have a few 162 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 2: voters who cross over. But I think if you're voting Trump, 163 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 2: you're voting down down ballot, and I think if your 164 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 2: voting Harris, you're voting down ballot. That's like what happened 165 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 2: in most cases. I think you're seeing less and less 166 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: crossover appeal of what comes to voters going into the 167 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 2: voting booth. But we'll see. I could be completely wrong 168 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 2: on that. Of course, we can have a different scenario 169 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 2: play out. But I think the best pat of your 170 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 2: trumpet particular or any of these two candidates, you want 171 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 2: to have Congress with you. You can't just do it alone. 172 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 2: It'll be helpful to have full field advantage and includes 173 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 2: control of the set in the House. 174 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 1: I'm getting really carried away here. But Trump's if he wins, 175 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 1: he is done. It's one term for two terms. Does 176 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: ruby a run and does Rubya? Does he set up 177 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,559 Speaker 1: the Republican Party for another crack and might be twelve vs. 178 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 2: Well, that's a question for Senator Rubio. They have to 179 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 2: ask him directly. There's a lot about the people. There's 180 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 2: a lot of to doubt the people in the party. CENTA. 181 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 2: Ruby is certainly one of them, you know, and you're 182 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 2: seeing other obviously out to the people in the party as well. 183 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 2: I think certainly the quest the big question mark will 184 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 2: be what does you know Senator J. D. Vance do 185 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 2: if it is vice president of Vance On the heels 186 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 2: of of this evening's results, I think the big question 187 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 2: will be will be around those contenders as well. Potentially 188 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 2: they choose to run. But look, we got we got 189 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 2: to get through this election. You know, a week is 190 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 2: a lifetime and politics, how we say, we got a 191 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 2: lot of weeks to go between now and the next 192 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 2: presidential election. We've a few hours left in this election, 193 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: so you know, we're gonna have to get through this 194 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 2: one first. And by the way, hopefully we know tonight. 195 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: Maybe we do, maybe we don't, But I think the 196 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 2: country just wants to get through this first election, firs. 197 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: If that makes sense, that's the truth, or I might 198 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: always a pleasure to have you on the progate at matarial. 199 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 1: Who is Mica Rubis woman chief of stuff and so 200 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: so this is cool. For more from the Mic Hosking 201 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: Breakfast listen live to news talks. It'd be from six 202 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.