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Speaker 1: First, Shane Solely with Harbor acidt Management, Shane good Evening,

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Speaker 1: get it right. So we had the GDP number for

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Speaker 1: quarter two last week. It was soft, but the share

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Speaker 1: marker's been pretty flat. Investors sort of looking through the weakness.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting one. Yeah, So we've seen the

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Speaker 2: shoremaker flat last five days through this GDP shock period.

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Speaker 2: Actually it has been flat year to date and only

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Speaker 2: up five percent of the last twelve months. What would

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Speaker 2: because investors have been seeing this weakness for some time,

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Speaker 2: it's not a new surprise. But we are seeing probably

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Speaker 2: two or three things that are really starting to get

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Speaker 2: people to look back again. These interest rates are starting

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Speaker 2: to get to points where they're attractive cost of borrowing

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Speaker 2: and lower, making investments more attractive. There are some signs

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Speaker 2: that the economy is finding a base. We are seeing

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Speaker 2: this targeted government fiscal sterioally tuned to targeted fiscal stimulus.

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Speaker 2: So we are seeing some signs of things getting less worse.

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Speaker 2: And obviously parts of the economy are actually do okay,

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Speaker 2: others just a bit rough. And finally, the thing that

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Speaker 2: we're most focused on this company doing the companies doing

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Speaker 2: their own self help program, so they're fixing their own

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Speaker 2: businesses by efficiency gains. But unfortunately market was down just

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Speaker 2: und a zero point seven percent today giving back was

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Speaker 2: a bit of a strong day on Friday, so it's

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Speaker 2: giving some of that backupter some indexed weight changes the

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Speaker 2: little way together before. We're a rockstar economy and a

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Speaker 2: rockstar market a y, right, unfortunately, but cely we're in

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Speaker 2: this don't fight the feed, don't fight central banks moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the speaking of the RBNZ here will obviously be cutting.

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Speaker 1: A qwbank came out today, so they might need to

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Speaker 1: go to two percent by February next year. What do

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Speaker 1: you reckon that?

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Speaker 2: Well, look, certainly markets are pricing and official cash right

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Speaker 2: going to two point three percent by May twenty six.

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Speaker 2: That's down zero point seven percent on the current three

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Speaker 2: percent level. We've got cuts priced in for October according

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Speaker 2: to market, So zero point three four percent bat means

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent or point two five percent expected, but

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Speaker 2: it could be half a percent then there isn't It's

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Speaker 2: a bit fluid is because there's some expectation that inflation

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Speaker 2: data they actually just creep up in the next month,

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Speaker 2: holding the bens it back from doing a half percent,

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Speaker 2: but the economy. You know, we certainly needs needs, it

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Speaker 2: would benefit from the liquidit injection, so you know, maybe

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Speaker 2: maybe we do get closer to two than two and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: Interesting. We're also getting an update on US inflation data

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Speaker 1: later this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, last week we saw the Federal of the

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Speaker 2: Market Commission. This is the fed's monetrey policy arm cut

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Speaker 2: by a quarter of a percent. That was expected, but

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Speaker 2: Fed hip power he was quite hawkish. He were sort

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Speaker 2: of holding his cards back, talking about as a risk

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Speaker 2: management cut this week. Later this week, on Thursday, we

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Speaker 2: get the core personal consumption expenditure or PC data. That's

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Speaker 2: the one the FED really favors. So it's actually on Friday, apologies,

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Speaker 2: surveys are shown. We're coming around two point nine percent,

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Speaker 2: that's inside that feed's taget band. Remembering, of course we've

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Speaker 2: got this very unusual time in the US with the

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Speaker 2: data is not exactly great so complete, and what markets

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Speaker 2: are really watching for is a tariff impact. Is it

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Speaker 2: as bad as people have expected? So you know, we

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Speaker 2: have got the potential for some more ammunition for the

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Speaker 2: FED to cut this. Currently, if we look one year

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Speaker 2: forward out to September next year, is about one percent

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Speaker 2: of fewest FED cuts put in place, taking their rates

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Speaker 2: down to three percent. Their official CASHERP and Fed Chiapale.

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Speaker 2: He talks on Thursday. He's going to talk about the

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Speaker 2: economy and market's going to be saying, so things getting worse.

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Speaker 2: Does that mean you have to cut faster and earlier

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Speaker 2: to get to that one percent down?

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Speaker 1: Appreciate that updates Shane Soling Harborraset Management with.

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Speaker 2: Us for more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive.

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