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Speaker 1: Kiaoa.

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Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and This is the Front Page, a

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Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. The US

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Speaker 2: and Israel have launched a massive assault on Iran. Benjamin

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Speaker 2: Netanyahu has said the strikes will increase over the coming days.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump has said.

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Speaker 2: That they figured it would be about four weeks or

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Speaker 2: so when asked about a potential timeline. Iran has retaliated,

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Speaker 2: unleashing its own strikes on US military bases, Israel, and

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Speaker 2: other targets across the Middle East. The killing of Ayatola

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Speaker 2: al Jameni and many of his senior commanders has left

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Speaker 2: Tedan's future leadership in question, but questions are also swirling

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Speaker 2: about the legality of the strikes. Today on the Front Page,

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Speaker 2: Why cat Tho University International law professor Al Gillespie is

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Speaker 2: with us to discuss how we got here and.

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Speaker 1: Where to next.

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Speaker 2: So our first off, give us a little background.

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Speaker 1: How do we get here? Why is this happening?

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Speaker 3: The animosity between Iran and the West is very long standing,

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Speaker 3: and the undue influence of the West and Iran goes

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Speaker 3: back to be twentieth century, but in betwenty first century

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Speaker 3: and especially since the Revolution in nineteen seventy nine. It's

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Speaker 3: become much more difficult, and the main cause is the

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Speaker 3: race for a nuclear weapon, which they began at the

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Speaker 3: beginning of the twenty first century.

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Speaker 2: So why is it ramped up all of a sudden now.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of opportunity of why you'd want to

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Speaker 3: strike now? There are significant protests, They are weak in

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Speaker 3: terms of the region with the proxies that they support,

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Speaker 3: and they are a repugnant regime in terms of the

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Speaker 3: human rights record. The problem is is that this doesn't

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Speaker 3: give you authority under international law to strike in as

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Speaker 3: the country. But the chance is the best it's been

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Speaker 3: for many years if you are trying to topple the regime.

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Speaker 2: Well, from the perspective of international law, what is the

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Speaker 2: most significant thing that stands out to you in terms of.

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Speaker 3: This strike without Security Council approval? There is nothing in

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Speaker 3: the UN Charter that says you can bomb someone who

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Speaker 3: refuses to negotiate with you, and so this is in

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Speaker 3: theory an illegal action. It's very similar to two thousand

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Speaker 3: and three with the intervention into Iraq, which is also

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Speaker 3: viewed as an illegal action. That the problem is is

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Speaker 3: that there's a very big gap between theory and practice

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Speaker 3: that even though in theory it might be illegal, in

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Speaker 3: practice there will be no repercussions. But the legality question

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Speaker 3: is also important domestically for mister Trump because he has

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Speaker 3: gone around the authority of Congress to do this military strike.

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Speaker 3: And in theory, their constitution says that for offensive actions

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Speaker 3: of war, as opposed to defense of you should get

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Speaker 3: the authority of Congress. Otherwise the president has too much power.

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Speaker 2: Right, So that echoes kind of what Helen Clark has

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Speaker 2: said as well. She's called the our government's response a

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Speaker 2: disgrace and she posted online about knowing full well the

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Speaker 2: international law has been breached, had any legitimate claim to

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Speaker 2: invoking a right of self defense? And be all this

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Speaker 2: chat about self defense?

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Speaker 1: Does that like?

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Speaker 2: Is that a loophole of something an international law to

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Speaker 2: allow you to strike another state?

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Speaker 3: First off, the UN Charter works on the assumption that

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Speaker 3: every country has the right to self defense without having

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Speaker 3: to get Security Council approval. But it must be preemptive

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Speaker 3: or it must be in a situation where you're either

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Speaker 3: you will either strike or that there's no alternative to

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Speaker 3: defend in yourself. And so the question is here it

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Speaker 3: was there an alternative was you're an imminent strike upon

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Speaker 3: America about to happen or Israel, And the answer is

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Speaker 3: that's very unlikely. And that's because their nuclear capability had

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Speaker 3: been damaged recently with the American strikes and also over

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Speaker 3: the relationship that they've had with the international community trying

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Speaker 3: to curtail their build up, and so there was no

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Speaker 3: imminent risk that I can see. And so even in

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Speaker 3: theory that you've got to preemptive right to self defense,

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Speaker 3: you wouldn't have qualified for them. This is much more

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Speaker 3: of an offensive action where their issues to negotiate consistently

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Speaker 3: to be feared, that they are difficult negotiators and that

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Speaker 3: they do play cat and mouse with the international community,

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Speaker 3: and they've done it for decades. And mister Trump is

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Speaker 3: someone who doesn't have a great regard for international law,

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Speaker 3: and he's now brought the issue to ahead well.

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Speaker 2: He has said that Iran's leadership waited too long to talk.

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Speaker 2: Luxel and Peters have said that New Zealand has consistently

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Speaker 2: condemned Iran's nuclear program and the repression of its people.

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Speaker 2: They've called for the resumption of negotiations and adherence to

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Speaker 2: international law. How likely is it, though, that their new

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Speaker 2: Iranian leadership is to seek out these negotiations.

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Speaker 3: Now, starting a war is very easy. Ending a war

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Speaker 3: is much more difficult, and trying to build a new

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Speaker 3: regime is just conjecture. At the moment, we don't know

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Speaker 3: how they will respond with the death of the Ayatola.

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Speaker 3: We don't know who a potential alternative leader could be.

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Speaker 3: We don't know what their system of government could be,

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Speaker 3: and whether it will be peaceful transition. I very much

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Speaker 3: doubt it's potentially quite likely to turn into a civil

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Speaker 3: war in which any future leadership will be contested. And

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Speaker 3: then what in an ideal world they would say, Okay, fairkop,

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Speaker 3: We're now going to change regime. We're at democracy, we're

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Speaker 3: a republic and will negotiate. In reality, you've got ninety

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Speaker 3: million people a deeply religious regime, and at least it's

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Speaker 3: a quarter of these people are going to contest and

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Speaker 3: potentially find very hard against their loss of power. And

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Speaker 3: so if you can achieve regime change just from it

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Speaker 3: bombing them, I'd be amazed. You're very likely going to

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Speaker 3: need boots on the ground to actually try to effect

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Speaker 3: this change, and then you look at all the history,

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Speaker 3: look at recent Afghanistan, look at Libya, look at Syria,

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Speaker 3: look at Iraq, and everyone's a failure. And now we're

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Speaker 3: about to try to multiply that on a bigger scale.

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Speaker 2: And given that all attempts of the West four regime

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Speaker 2: changes have been failures in the past.

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Speaker 1: I noted that Vice President JD.

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Speaker 2: Vance and the Defense Secretary there in the US, Pete Hegseth,

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Speaker 2: they both were pretty careful to publicly state that their.

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Speaker 1: Goal is not a regime change. They said, we are.

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Speaker 2: Not at war with Iran, We're at war with Iran's

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Speaker 2: nuclear program. At one point I think that was at

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Speaker 2: the weekend. But then Trump, on the other hand, has

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Speaker 2: completely contradicted them. He's posted on social media and I quote,

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Speaker 2: if the current Iranian regime is unable to make a

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Speaker 2: Ran great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change?

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Speaker 2: Myga m IgA make a run great again?

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Speaker 4: Now?

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Speaker 1: Is it important? Legally?

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Speaker 2: I suppose to differentiate between pushing for a regime change

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Speaker 2: versus we think that they have the nuclear weapons.

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Speaker 1: Hence this is what we're doing.

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Speaker 3: It's important ethically because it's one thing everyone gets the

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Speaker 3: idea that Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon, and that

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Speaker 3: that's correct. They shouldn't have a nuclear weapon, and it

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Speaker 3: because a veneer of support say we're trying to stop

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Speaker 3: the nuclear weapon. People can understand that.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's taken straight out of the two two thousand

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Speaker 2: and three playbook, isn't it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, the similarities between two thousand and three and

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty six are quite striking because both are continder

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Speaker 3: about weapons of mass destruction. Both have a process of

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Speaker 3: negotiation that that's ongoing. The difference between two thousand and

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Speaker 3: three and now is that there was more un involvement

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Speaker 3: in two thousand and three than there is now. But

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Speaker 3: both end badly and when you get the intervention. But

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Speaker 3: once you've got the intervention, it's easy to intervene or

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Speaker 3: to strike. The hard part is trying to build a

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Speaker 3: regime afterwards. Think about Afghanistan, where you go in there,

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Speaker 3: you try topple the Taliban and it takes you twenty

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Speaker 3: years of warfare and you fail and you end up

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Speaker 3: coming out with your table between your legs. That type

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Speaker 3: of situation could be multiplied here. But it's not just

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Speaker 3: about the regime change. It's about the humanitarian conflict. That

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Speaker 3: will follow, and for the West, the surge of refugees.

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Speaker 3: The last thing in Europe wants right now is millions

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Speaker 3: more people coming towards its border. But that is potentially

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Speaker 3: what you're looking at for civil war breaks out, and

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Speaker 3: that is quite possible.

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Speaker 2: And that's perhaps as well. I mean, in two thousand

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Speaker 2: and three the United States and George Bush had more

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Speaker 2: allies on board. Also, I'm thinking about Tony Blair in

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Speaker 2: the UK, for example, But now they do seem to

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Speaker 2: be quite alone in this battle, if you know, and

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Speaker 2: also with Israel as well. What do you make of

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Speaker 2: the other countries around the world their reaction to this?

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Speaker 3: So fun that other countries in the region are showing

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Speaker 3: restraint because Iran is lashing out, sending out missile's left, right,

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Speaker 3: and center. And the one thing that the Middle East

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Speaker 3: all she is in common is a very deep memory

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Speaker 3: and they all have a lot of remembrances of violations

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Speaker 3: against their sovereignty and against acts of transgression that Iran

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Speaker 3: has done. Iran has been a bad neighbor to a

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Speaker 3: lot of these countries for many decades, but so far

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Speaker 3: America and Israel have stopped the other countries from striking back,

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Speaker 3: but I think there are a fair chance that some

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Speaker 3: of these countries will want to go in and have

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Speaker 3: a little bit of food pro quo for some of

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Speaker 3: the from actions that Iran has done against them. But

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Speaker 3: so far it's under control, but they have not intervened.

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Speaker 3: But I wouldn't be surprised if Iran keeps sending missiles

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Speaker 3: towards some of these countries that they too don't want

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Speaker 3: to join in giving them the thumping.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, one of the first reactions that I was seeking

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Speaker 2: out was from Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 1: But they've been quite quiet off the offset, haven't they.

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Speaker 3: Partly it's self interest to be quiet, but partly it's

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Speaker 3: also a question about waiting. And the challenge will be

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Speaker 3: if it turns to a civil conflict, the intervention in

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Speaker 3: Iran to try to get retime that they want, because

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Speaker 3: none of them are above meddling in each other's domestic politics.

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Speaker 3: But throughout the region, and you could see this with

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Speaker 3: the rise of Islamic state extremism and humanagering catastrophe go

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Speaker 3: hand in hand in that part of the world. This

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Speaker 3: is the easy part of the equation going in there,

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Speaker 3: starting to bombing a lot of high tech visuals. This

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Speaker 3: is easy. The hard part is what happens next, who

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Speaker 3: you negotiate with, and how you build a stable Iran.

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Speaker 1: And how do you see that happening from here on out.

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Speaker 3: I think at the moment this is a remarkable distraction,

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Speaker 3: and I think it will take a few weeks of bombing,

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Speaker 3: maybe up to four, until you've got a complete superiority

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Speaker 3: of American and Israeli air force over the region. But

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Speaker 3: the problem you've got is that this will not break

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Speaker 3: the spirit of the Republican Guard or the Revolutionary Guard.

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Speaker 3: That these people will continue to fight, but they will

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Speaker 3: wait for the opportunity for American boots or Israeli boots

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Speaker 3: to be on the ground and take the fight to them.

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Speaker 3: They can't win superior into the technology war right now,

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Speaker 3: but if they're drawn into the country, they have got

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Speaker 3: a chance of a long conflict that could be drawn out.

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Speaker 3: All of the regions of this part of the world

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Speaker 3: are experts to that type of warfare.

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Speaker 4: They have waged war against civilis itself are resolved. Likewise,

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Speaker 4: that of Israel has never been stronger. America is now

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Speaker 4: again the richest most powerful nation in the world by far,

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Speaker 4: But the only reason we enjoy the quality of life

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Speaker 4: that we do, and the freedom and security is we

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Speaker 4: have done things that others are unable to do. But

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Speaker 4: it's because of warriors who are willing to lay down

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Speaker 4: their lives to do battle with our enemies, and they

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Speaker 4: do battle better than anybody.

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Speaker 2: For months, they say that the Israelian American intelligence agencies

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Speaker 2: had been secretly watching the Supreme leader in Iran. Why

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Speaker 2: might that moment or the right moment be now for them?

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Speaker 3: There's various things that they could be negotiating for, and

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Speaker 3: there's not much transparency over what was going on. But

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Speaker 3: the first one is to removal of a nuclear potential

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Speaker 3: that the second one is removal of ballistic missiles, the

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Speaker 3: third one is control of the proxies in the region,

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Speaker 3: and the fourth one is the right to protest. The

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Speaker 3: right to protest is what seems to have been the

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Speaker 3: catalytic event in recent times because of the repression of

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Speaker 3: those who have tried to express their descent against the regime.

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Speaker 3: There was a heavy handed response. It seems to have

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Speaker 3: been tempered, but then what happened is now it has

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Speaker 3: suddenly sparked up again, and mister Trump is hoping that

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Speaker 3: the people in Iran will rise up and take control

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Speaker 3: of their own destiny. The challenge you've got is that

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Speaker 3: those who want the theocratic regime will find very hard

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Speaker 3: against that. In terms of the timing and two considerations

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Speaker 3: here is you're seeing a lack of good faith on

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Speaker 3: the part of negotiators from America. First off, you should

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Speaker 3: not strike while you're negotiating. In second orf, you should

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Speaker 3: not strike the leaders because if you strike the leaders,

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Speaker 3: you break all good faith between countries. And you can

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Speaker 3: expect now that as much as their supreme leader has

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Speaker 3: been they will try to do the same to mister Trump.

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Speaker 2: I mean, surely I know that along with the Aar tooler,

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Speaker 2: there was a lot of his senior commanders that have

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Speaker 2: been reportedly killed as well. But when we see, you know,

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Speaker 2: in his history and going back to two thousand and three, Saddam,

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Speaker 2: Who's saying, wouldn't there be just someone else waiting in

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Speaker 2: the wings for these kind of regimes.

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Speaker 3: People assumed that this is like Venezuela, where you can

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Speaker 3: go in and you can cut the head off the snake.

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Speaker 3: But this is not one head and one snake. This

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Speaker 3: is an entire ecosystem, and the ecosystem it's not just

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Speaker 3: based around power, it's based around religion. And water around

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Speaker 3: religion are the worst type of conflicts you can get into,

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Speaker 3: because people will fight to the death over what they

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Speaker 3: think is most important to them theologically. And so this

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Speaker 3: regime will fill the spaces and they will wait patiently,

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Speaker 3: and it's their time to strike. And it may be

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Speaker 3: that they will get degraded in terms of their ballistic missiles,

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Speaker 3: but then they will wait for people to come on

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Speaker 3: the ground and they will reply. That reply will not

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Speaker 3: to speak against external enemies or against internal enemies as well.

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Speaker 3: And so all of those who are currently expressing descend

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Speaker 3: against the regime are at extreme risk. If you see

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Speaker 3: that extreme risk, if you see through regime cracking down

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Speaker 3: even harder on protesters and those who express the light

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Speaker 3: at the aetol are being killed, then and you see

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Speaker 3: more blood on the streets, the pressure for America to

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Speaker 3: get involved in for boots on the ground and to

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Speaker 3: stop that will become very high. Even though mister Trump

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Speaker 3: is now in the exact opposite position of where he

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Speaker 3: started out, being they're trying to stop foreign wars, He's

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Speaker 3: now in the cusp. If they're in America into an

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Speaker 3: even bigger one.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting as well.

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Speaker 2: I've read this piece and sorry to bring it back

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Speaker 2: to the comparisons with two thousand and three, but the

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Speaker 2: narrative on even getting the American public on board with

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Speaker 2: these strikes is incredibly similar.

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Speaker 1: You've got a similar narrative like.

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Speaker 2: A rogue regime, secretive kind of seced a looming nuclear threat,

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Speaker 2: you've got a ticking clock, you know, it has to

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Speaker 2: have and now. And then what you saw with two

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Speaker 2: thousand and three is that you know, Dick Cheney out

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Speaker 2: there saying, oh, there will be you know, parades in

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Speaker 2: the streets when American soldiers when their boots get on

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Speaker 2: the ground. But it did actually, nearly, you know, bring

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Speaker 2: the country into an all out civil war. What do

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Speaker 2: you think we have or haven't learned from two thousand

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Speaker 2: and three to now?

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Speaker 3: I think we've forgotten everything and are remarkably short. And

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Speaker 3: you've got the first off, it doesn't begin in two

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Speaker 3: thousand and three. It begins in two thousand and one

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Speaker 3: with the intervention into Afghanistan, and that's a twenty year operation.

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Speaker 3: You change the regime that it unifies the people against

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Speaker 3: the invaders, and eventually you are pushing out the other side.

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Speaker 3: You get to two thousand and three and you go

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Speaker 3: into Iraq, and the result of Iraq wasn't the change

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Speaker 3: in regime, it was the rise of Islamic state and

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Speaker 3: extremists who tried to fill the void. Well, then you

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Speaker 3: go into Libya and you again you end up a

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Speaker 3: broken and chaotic country in the aftermath, or you try

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Speaker 3: to get involved in Syria and you have a humanitarian

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Speaker 3: catastrophe which leads to the biggest refugee seurchs that we've

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Speaker 3: seen towards the West. And I think I am dumbfounded

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Speaker 3: that no one is saying, why are any of these

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Speaker 3: four examples good? Then they're all failures. And yet that's

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Speaker 3: exactly where we're going through right now. But to start

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Speaker 3: the war is easy to finish it that this could take.

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Speaker 2: Years or what tools realistically does the UN Security Council

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Speaker 2: actually have at this point because they're quite constrained given

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Speaker 2: one of their key parties as a permanent member with

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Speaker 2: the VETO.

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Speaker 3: The good news about this conflict is that Russia and

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Speaker 3: China will not get involved and they are not allies

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Speaker 3: of Iran. So despite this being very scary, this is

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Speaker 3: not the third World War, and that's excellent news. The

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Speaker 3: problem you've got, though, is that both Russia and China

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Speaker 3: loaned by experience and by the precedents of other countries.

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Speaker 3: And so you already see Russia in Ukraine, and heaven forbid,

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Speaker 3: China will be thinking what would happen if we now

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Speaker 3: acted without Security Council approval into Taiwan, And so everyone

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Speaker 3: can see the problem of a lawless world. It's okay

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Speaker 3: when it's effectively our team, but what happens when it's

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Speaker 3: the other team and they start acting them the same way?

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Speaker 3: But the Security Council will You might get to a

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Speaker 3: point where the regime is crushed and you try to

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Speaker 3: get some kinds of legitimacy and some kinds of stamp

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Speaker 3: of approval from the Security Council, but that could be

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Speaker 3: a very long time coming, because your best outcome is

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Speaker 3: that you have a multilateral force that's based upon regional

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Speaker 3: peacekeepers trying to rebuild Iran with the consent of the

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Speaker 3: Iranian people. And the Iranian people have transparent democracy. They

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Speaker 3: elect the government they want and select the constitution that

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Speaker 3: they want. But if this is forced on them by

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Speaker 3: anyone else, you will get a very negative reaction, and

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Speaker 3: the Iranian regime is a particular thing, eucratic flavor, which

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Speaker 3: is antagonistic to a lot of similar religions in the region,

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Speaker 3: and they will find tooth and nail, as they did

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Speaker 3: in nineteen seventy nine, to protect their power.

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Speaker 5: Let's be under no illusion. This was not a regime

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Speaker 5: that New Zealand has supported or been in favor of

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Speaker 5: for decades under successive governments. I mean, it's a regime

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Speaker 5: that's brutally repressing its own people, killing tens of thousands

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Speaker 5: of murdering tens of thousands of people. It's one that's

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Speaker 5: actually been arming proxies and terrorism around the world. And

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Speaker 5: we've had years of diplomacy to try and manage the

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Speaker 5: nuclear program, in the ballistic missile program as well, and

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Speaker 5: to no effects. So you know, we won't be mourning

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Speaker 5: the loss of this leader.

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Speaker 1: Do you endorse the attacks?

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Speaker 5: Well, again, I understand why they're doing it, because they

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Speaker 5: are obviously, you know, making sure that Aram, which has

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Speaker 5: been threatening a lot of peace and security in the world,

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Speaker 5: is actually know that stops, and ultimately it's up to

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Speaker 5: the Iranian people now to determine what happens next and

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Speaker 5: where it goes to.

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Speaker 2: Lastly, our do you think that New Zealand's response to

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Speaker 2: this is a good one.

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Speaker 3: I think it's tempered, and I think that the current

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Speaker 3: New Zealand approach is trying very hard not to offend

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Speaker 3: mister Trump. But we know that this is not in

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Speaker 3: accordance with the United Nations Charter, This is not in

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Speaker 3: supportive international law and this will only lead to more instability.

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Speaker 3: To call for more negotiation, to call for adherence to

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Speaker 3: the international humanitarian law and the rights of the Iranian

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Speaker 3: people is correct, but this is another breach to the

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Speaker 3: raw spased order. It doesn't make anyone safer.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us OL, You're welcome, Chelsea.

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Speaker 1: That's it for this.

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Speaker 2: Episode of The Front Page. You can read more about

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Speaker 2: today's stories and extensive news coverage at zidhrald dot co

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Speaker 2: dot nz. The Front Page is hosted and produced by

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Speaker 2: me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky is our studio operator, Richard Martin,

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Speaker 2: our producer and editor, and our executive producer is Jane Ye.

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Speaker 2: Follow the Front Page on the iHeart app or wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, and join us next time for

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Speaker 2: another look beyond the headlines.