1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: Ever, Jeremy hasn't lil fed Asset Management is with me. Hello, Jeremy. 2 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: Good evening, Heather. So a bit of a fall in 3 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 1: the US share market overnight. What happened? Yeah, just a 4 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: short reminder that markets just don't go up in a 5 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: straight line. But yeah, short, sharp two percent drop in 6 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: the in the Nasdaq overnight, but just highlighting it's still 7 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: been a very strong year. But overnight, Yeah, there was 8 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 1: the lead market was led down by two market darlings. 9 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 1: This was Pellanter down nine percent and the chip behemoth 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: and Video down three and a half. And it looks 11 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: like it was driven by a short bet in both 12 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: these names that was disclosed by an investor called Michael Bury. Now, 13 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: putting a short bet in is that you're expecting these 14 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 1: stocks to fall and Bury he's a originally famous investor 15 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 1: who shorted the US housing market just before the GFC 16 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: crash in two thousand and nine, and you know that 17 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: led to the famous movie The Big Short. But you know, 18 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: it is just one man's view, one participant's view, and 19 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: shift down on the day. But you know, we'll just 20 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: have to see how this plays out, and there's any 21 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 1: trend here. Yeah, But I mean, it is possible that 22 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: there are a few other risks that are popping into investors' minds, right, yeah, potentially. 23 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: I mean, we have just gone through a reasonably catalyst 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: rich period where you know, we had the third quarter 25 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: earnings of a lot of these big tech and AI companies, 26 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: and once more, they did report really strong numbers, and 27 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: the markets just continued to rally as it has over 28 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: over the year as well. And you know, the strip 29 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:34,040 Speaker 1: feeding of positive AI spend and deals and announcements has 30 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: helped this. But you know, there are a few reminders 31 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: of risks out there still. You know, the US government 32 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: shutdown that's nearing the longest ever. The China US deal 33 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: or trade agreement was pretty lukewarm, pretty light on detail, 34 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: so you know, maybe not cooling the trade war at all. 35 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 1: And then you know, you had this Bury news last night, 36 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: and then some other Wall Street executives too, just calling 37 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: or just warning of a potential AI bubble. And then 38 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: and then finally, you know, market valuation, they are very 39 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: high verse history at the moment, so you don't need 40 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 1: much negative news for a short shut pullback. Here in 41 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: New Zealand, we're seeing some green shoots out we got 42 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,399 Speaker 1: the Freightways and the ports of toating they're having quite 43 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 1: strong updates. Yeah, that's right back in New Zealand. So 44 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 1: starting with starting with Freightways. You know, Freightways is a 45 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 1: career and delivery company, so it is generally seen as 46 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: a really good bow weather for local activity in New Zealand, 47 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: and they had a strong update last week at their 48 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 1: AGM there. Their first quarter profits are up around twenty 49 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 1: percent versus last year, and importantly they're seeing volumes or 50 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: same customer volumes starting to grow versus last year. So 51 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: that's that's pretty clear that there's some cyclical recovery coming 52 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: through there. And then portataroing. Yeah. Also, you know, their 53 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: first guidance in there for the year and then their 54 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 1: first quarter volume update again looking for mid to low 55 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: teens profit growth, and then their volumes are up nine percent. 56 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 1: And we know exports are very strong at the moment dairy, kiwi, 57 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: fruit and the like, but there's also bound to be 58 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: some really good import growth coming through there, so potentially 59 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: that's consumers bringing in some more goods and feeling a 60 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,799 Speaker 1: bit better. So yeah, another couple of data points there 61 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: showing that you know, hopefully we're through the worst of 62 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 1: the economics cycle here in New Zealand. Yeah, good stuff, Jeremy, 63 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: always good to talk to you. Thank you mate. That's 64 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: Jeremy Hutton, Wulford Act Management. For more from Heather Duplessy 65 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: Allen Drive, listen live to news Talks. It'd be from 66 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.