1 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:08,440 Speaker 1: Kyoda. I am Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, 2 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. New 3 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:20,440 Speaker 1: jobs data out today's spells worry for New Zealand's economy. 4 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: The unemployment rate was five point four percent in the 5 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: December twenty twenty five quarter, the highest since September twenty fifteen. 6 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,880 Speaker 1: Most banks had expected unemployment to hold steady at five 7 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: point three percent, ASB was a bit more bullish picking 8 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: five point two. But it means one hundred and sixty 9 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 1: five thousand people were unemployed last quarter, a quarterly increase 10 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: of about five thousand people. But what does it all mean? 11 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: And can the government keep calling it all the mess 12 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: they inherited today on the front page Endzed Herald Business 13 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: Editor at Large Liam dan is with us to dive 14 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: into the data. Liam, first and foremost, what was your 15 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: first reaction when you. 16 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: Saw that, Well, unemployment went up, not down, and we 17 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:16,040 Speaker 2: like it going down, and so up's bad and down's good? 18 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: Is it as bad as it looks? Look? There are 19 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 2: a lot of reasons why maybe it isn't as bad 20 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 2: as it looks when you consider job losses and job creations. 21 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: So the thing that's had the big influence actually over 22 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 2: the last several months or the last several quarters even 23 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 2: is that being the participation rate in the New Zealand 24 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 2: lighbor market. And so most of last year the unemployment 25 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 2: rate was kind of flattered by the number of people 26 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: not looking for work, so they don't count on the 27 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 2: surveys as unemployed. They've gone back into training or back 28 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 2: and stayed at school and that sort of thing. But 29 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 2: this time around we saw the participation rate and increase, 30 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 2: which you know, at the margins might be a you 31 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: could say, is a good thing that people are engaging 32 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 2: with the job market. They see some hope there around 33 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 2: job creation, but that means more people in the job market, 34 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 2: more people to be unemployed, and so that's that's kind 35 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 2: of what's happened here. There has been a slight rise 36 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 2: in employment in the December quarter, so not as much 37 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 2: as we'd like to see for a really strong economy, 38 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 2: but the employment rate did go up by you know, 39 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:27,239 Speaker 2: a fraction, so that's positive. It means that we're seeing 40 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 2: some job growth or at least that's starting to stabilize. 41 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 2: But yeah, the top line number, I guess is the 42 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,119 Speaker 2: one that you know people grab and that's the one 43 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 2: that's the political football and makes things interesting when if 44 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 2: you're a government trying to sell the idea of a recovery. Well, 45 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 2: you look at. 46 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 1: That top line number when you get through the stats. 47 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: I mean, what's the second thing that you look at? 48 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 2: Well, I quite like the underutilization rate. That is because 49 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 2: you know, the unemployment rate is very black and in 50 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 2: the sense that if you work an hour or two 51 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 2: then you're employed and you're not in the unemployment rate. 52 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,519 Speaker 2: But there are a lot of people in this economy 53 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: that work as contractors and have part time jobs and 54 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 2: would like more work. And so you know that is 55 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 2: thirteen point one percent, and that's a lot higher. That's 56 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 2: the number of people who consider themselves underutilized, would like 57 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 2: to have more work in this economy, but don't. So 58 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 2: those people may well be really struggling with the cost 59 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 2: of living and so on and not be counted as unemployed. 60 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 1: Tell me a little bit about youth unemployment. 61 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's typically a lot higher, and it does vary 62 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 2: a lot depending on what people are doing in terms 63 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 2: of you know, staying in further education. And I mean, 64 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 2: it doesn't actually affect the participation rate because they're all 65 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 2: in or all out if they leave the country. But 66 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 2: the number of people leaving to go to Australia in 67 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 2: a lot of cases does have an impact. And so 68 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: we saw a sort of a slow down in the 69 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 2: rate at which people are leaving for Australia. Last year 70 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 2: was seeing some stabilization and those migration numbers. That will 71 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 2: also be sort of boosting the size of the labor force, 72 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 2: which means that sort of the job creation has to 73 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 2: do more work. You know, the bigger the labor force, 74 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 2: the more jobs you've got to create to sort of 75 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 2: bring that unemployment rate down. Yeah, and so they have 76 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 2: a youth not an Employment Educational Training number and NEAT 77 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 2: and that for fifteen to twenty four year olds is 78 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 2: thirteen point two percent, so close to that under utilization rate. 79 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 2: That's actually compared to thirteen point seven percent in the 80 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 2: September quarter. So you know, I guess you could say 81 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 2: that that's positive, but you know, still a lot higher 82 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 2: in that category fifteen to twenty four. You imagine that 83 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 2: people do have more discretion about what they're going to do, 84 00:04:56,560 --> 00:05:00,040 Speaker 2: more freedom to travel or to get into education. It 85 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,479 Speaker 2: can be a trap and so you would hope that 86 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 2: people aren't getting stuck on the benefit at that age group. 87 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: Well, speaking of that, I mean it's the end of 88 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: this year, actually, I think November when it kicks in, 89 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 1: we're essentially eighteen and nineteen year olds will become adult 90 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 1: dependents instead of young adults on their parents. Do you 91 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 1: reckon people are gearing up for perhaps those changes coming in? 92 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that is sort of a get tough thing, 93 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 2: isn't it. It's the idea that you know, in opposition 94 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 2: National talked a lot about job seeker benefits rising under 95 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 2: labor and there's this sort of implication and it comes 96 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 2: through and comment sections and so on that by being 97 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:44,840 Speaker 2: too soft, we're allowing people to sort of stay on 98 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 2: welfare and not look for work. I think, yeah, it'll 99 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,919 Speaker 2: be interesting to see how that affects things at the margins. 100 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 2: I mean, it's a tough thing to do in an 101 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 2: environment where you don't have a great deal of growth 102 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 2: in the job market. So you know, you'd hope that 103 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 2: things would look a lot better by the end of 104 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:06,720 Speaker 2: the year. It you know, the economists are still saying 105 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 2: the signs of recovery are there. It just takes a 106 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 2: long time on the unemployment sort of labor market side. 107 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 2: It's always a lagging indicator. You know, there's a lot 108 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,280 Speaker 2: of looking for positives in this. But I think if 109 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 2: you step back, though, well that's it. I think if 110 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:23,159 Speaker 2: you actually step back, you've got to say, this is 111 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 2: pretty lousy. This this far into the economic cycle. I mean, 112 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 2: it is just taking too long, I think. And you know, 113 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 2: we've got interest rateslow, we've got record exports, dairy boom, 114 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 2: beef sector boom, you know, eighty billion dollars record export 115 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 2: earnings in New Zealand last year. How come that's not 116 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 2: translating to a stronger economy. 117 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: Well, what will give businesses the confidence to hire out again? 118 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean hopefully that's that's starting to happen. 119 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 2: It's the sense that there'll be a sustained recovery because 120 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 2: you don't want to commit to more staff and you know, 121 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 2: grow if it's only going to be a short lift recovery. 122 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 2: So I think things have been looking good. There was 123 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 2: a little bit there is some concern about inflation and 124 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 2: then therefore the need for interest rates to go up 125 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 2: again later this year, and that might be making businesses 126 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 2: think twice as well. So it's a sort of an 127 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 2: endless cycle of trying to sort of get momentum into 128 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 2: the business confidence and get some sort of feeling that 129 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 2: there will be stability and some long term growth, even 130 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 2: if it's not a huge boom, that we're not going 131 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 2: to suddenly get hit with another recession, and so that 132 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 2: you're not going to have to get rid of staff 133 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 2: after you've just just hired staff. That's that's really the 134 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 2: issue for businesses, and it's one of the reasons that 135 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 2: the labor market is slow to move in an economic cycle. 136 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 2: It's much easier for a business to suddenly start spending 137 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 2: on advertising or marketing. That tends to be a front 138 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 2: end thing, you know, and then you cut that when 139 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 2: things get bad, but you hold on to staff. You 140 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 2: don't want to cut staff, and therefore you also take 141 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 2: your time deciding whether you can afford to take on 142 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 2: more staff. So I really hope that we do start 143 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 2: to see that the momentum build. The issue around inflation 144 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 2: is a very serious one. The economists are already saying, well, 145 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:14,119 Speaker 2: you know, it's a perverse upside of seeing more slack 146 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 2: in the labor market. The fact that things haven't been 147 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 2: as good today means that it does take a little 148 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 2: bit of pressure off the reserve bank. We've seen financial 149 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 2: markets pair back a little bit on when they expect 150 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 2: to see or what the odds are of an interest 151 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 2: rate hikesa and September, so maybe that does mean we 152 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 2: will see interest rates stay down a little bit longer, 153 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 2: and that's sort of positive for businesses, although you know, 154 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 2: we want to see some economic growth coming through and 155 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,959 Speaker 2: you know, ideally interest rates could go up to about 156 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 2: three percent, that the ocr could go up to about 157 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 2: three percent, and that should be sustainable for an economy 158 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 2: like New Zealand. But we are still battling some problems 159 00:08:55,120 --> 00:09:00,199 Speaker 2: with overall productivity in the economy and that limit it's 160 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 2: the capacity for the economy to grow very fast before 161 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 2: we start hitting inflation. 162 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 3: Well, we are working very hard to get unemployment to 163 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 3: come down. What is positive to see is that fifteen 164 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 3: thousand more jobs were created in the past three months, 165 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 3: that the hours people are working are increasing, that more 166 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 3: people are feeling optimistic about getting a job so are 167 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 3: entering that workforce. So that's really positive to see. And 168 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 3: what economists are interpreting that data to mean is that 169 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 3: we are getting that stabilization and recovery in the economy. Now, 170 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,959 Speaker 3: the thing we want to see is that that leads 171 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 3: to a lower unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is tracking 172 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 3: a little bit lower right now than Treasury we're forecasting. 173 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 3: They thought there could be more people unemployed today than 174 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 3: they're in fact are, and they are continuing to be 175 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 3: confident in their forecasts that the number will track lower. 176 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 1: Still, when it comes to the unemployment rate, you've got 177 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: the job seeker benefit slowly going up, obviously over the 178 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: course of a couple of governments. I mean, how long 179 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:11,559 Speaker 1: do you give National saying we've inherited this mass. Is 180 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: Luxon allowed to say that after these numbers have come out. 181 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,959 Speaker 2: I don't think it makes a great press release anymore. 182 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 2: You know, National was very hot on the idea, particularly 183 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 2: that not so much the unemployment numbers, but that the 184 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 2: job seeker benefits, the number of people on benefits in 185 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 2: this country was too high, and that you know, that 186 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 2: was something to do with the way that labor was managing, 187 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 2: managing the whole situation. I think, you know, they haven't 188 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:41,079 Speaker 2: succeeded in bringing those down, so the job seeker benefit 189 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 2: is still you know, we've only got that the latest 190 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 2: numbers through till the end of September twenty five at 191 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 2: the moment. But on that job seeker Support benefit work Ready, 192 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 2: which I tend to look at because I think, you know, 193 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 2: if you're in a health condition or disability, that's a 194 00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 2: sickness benefit and they shouldn't be mixed up. But even then, 195 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:05,079 Speaker 2: on the work Ready, we've seen that rise from ninety 196 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 2: eight thousand, or around ninety nine thousand and September twenty 197 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 2: two up to one hundred and twenty one three hundred 198 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 2: and fifty at the end of September twenty five, and 199 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 2: that's increases every September year that this government's been in power. 200 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 2: So okay, yep, big turnaround job. But I think when 201 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 2: they are in opposition they talked up the area they 202 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:26,559 Speaker 2: would turn this around quicker than that. 203 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: And when it comes to the government as well, do 204 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: you reckon it's the sea word as well, and truly 205 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: in the bean, and by sea word I mean COVID. 206 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 2: Well, I guess it should be. It's a long time 207 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 2: now actually. 208 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: As he's doing way better than us at the minute. 209 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 2: That yeah, I was just talking to my colleague Jamie 210 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 2: Gray and he was suggesting We haven't checked the numbers 211 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 2: on this. You'd have to look around the world. But 212 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 2: in some ways New Zealand's recovery has been maybe the 213 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 2: worst economic recovery post COVID, you know, certainly in terms 214 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 2: of our international peers. And that is pretty tough. And 215 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 2: you know, is that all because of our COVID response, 216 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 2: or is that around some of the choices that were 217 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 2: made in the period after we were through the worst 218 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 2: of the COVID by both governments. Possibly, you know, people 219 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 2: will point to what looked like some continued excess spending 220 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 2: by labor in the last year or so of their term. 221 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 2: But then you know, somehow we decided that it was 222 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 2: a good idea to do tax cuts, you know, or 223 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 2: the coalition national government decided tax cuts were ago, and 224 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 2: they don't seem to have stimulated the economy or done 225 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 2: anything much to help us along either. So it's a difficult, 226 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 2: difficult position that New Zealand finds itself in, and you 227 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 2: do look at the politicians and say, well, there's some 228 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 2: choices being made there that maybe aren't the ones that 229 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 2: were right for long term growth. 230 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 4: Treasury suggests that unemployment has yet to peak. Nicola Willis 231 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:07,959 Speaker 4: has made things worse rather than better. I don't think 232 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 4: the government can spin their way out of this. They've 233 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 4: been saying for over a year now that unemployment had 234 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 4: peaked and that things were getting better, that there were 235 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 4: green shoots in the economy, and for so many New 236 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 4: Zealand families things have continued to get worse. There are 237 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 4: thirty two thousand fewer jobs today than there were when 238 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 4: Nicola Willis became the Minister of Finance. It's about time 239 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 4: she stopped living in denial and started to accept responsibility 240 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,119 Speaker 4: for the consequences of her decisions. 241 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: And when it comes to the recovery of our economy, 242 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 1: do we have the same tools in our toolkit as 243 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: say Australia does. Yeah, I'm everything's pretty similar. 244 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm immediately thinking of like mining tools versus milking 245 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 2: sheds or the literal tools are that Australia does have 246 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 2: slightly better earner, you know, export earnings because of you know, 247 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 2: per capita, because of the mind industry. But New Zealand's 248 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 2: not bad as I talked about earlier. You know, we've 249 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:08,559 Speaker 2: had an export boom. When you look around the world 250 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 2: and sort of global at our global peers, what we 251 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 2: earn in the world as an exporting nation is pretty 252 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 2: good per capita. So my view is that it's not 253 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 2: about getting the amount of money coming into the country 254 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 2: that we should be thinking is the problem necessarily. So 255 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 2: you've got I guess people like Shane Jones and New 256 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 2: Zealand first saying, look, we need to mine more, we 257 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 2: need to catch up with Australia. Maybe we need to 258 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 2: look at you know, it's this extractive industries and so 259 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 2: there are limits to that. And when you look at 260 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 2: what New Zealand's missing, it's not the goods exports from 261 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 2: primary sector industries like you know, it certainly not agriculture. 262 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 2: Maybe we could find some more money from mining, but 263 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 2: you know, we've got to offset against environmental damage. It's 264 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 2: really things like our services sector, you know, exporting services 265 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 2: like financial services, which we don't really compare you know 266 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 2: Australia as a big financial service sector. We don't have that. 267 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 2: And then it's what we do with the money, how 268 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 2: we invest it, saving and spending and all those things. 269 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 2: I mean, it makes me think of New Zealand as 270 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 2: as kind of like the you know, you see those 271 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 2: personal we hear those personal finance podcasts and it'll always 272 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 2: be not always, but there'll be some couple and they'll 273 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 2: be saying, oh, we're earning over to our households, earning 274 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 2: over two hundred thousand, but we still need to we 275 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 2: still can't manage our budget. And you think, well, it's 276 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 2: not a case of the getting more money coming in. 277 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 2: It's what you do with the money and how you 278 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 2: organize your finances internally, and I think those are New 279 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 2: Zealand's problems at the moment. 280 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Liam cheers. That's it for this 281 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: episode of the Front Page. You can read more about 282 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzidhrald dot co 283 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: dot nz. The Front Page is hosted and produced by 284 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky is our studio operator, Richard Martin, 285 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: our producer and editor, and our executive producer is Jane Ye. 286 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: Follow the Front Page on the iHeart app or wherever 287 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, and join us next time for 288 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: another look beyond the headlines.