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Speaker 1: It is Monday morning. Grigsmith here, Devin Funds Management, Greg,

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Speaker 1: Good morning mornings. You're right, the PMI is a bit

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Speaker 1: of a mixed bag stand out the US.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, this is manufacturing and services activity globally, so

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Speaker 2: we've seen a number of prints here, so EU US

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Speaker 2: is going pretty well. That will will be pleasing to

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Speaker 2: trump the manufacturing sector that's no longer going backwards. Services

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Speaker 2: sector at nine months low, but still an expansion territory.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, optimism is pretty high in the US. You know,

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Speaker 2: the trump up appears to be wide ranging. If you

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Speaker 2: look at the joint services and manufacturing outlock, it's actually

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Speaker 2: the highest since May twenty twenty two, So yeah, US

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Speaker 2: based businesses have got a positive view of things. A

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Speaker 2: little bit of a different story in Europe this is

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Speaker 2: activity did get back to grow for the first time

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Speaker 2: in five months, but yeah, a bit of a mixed bag.

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Speaker 2: Germany doing well, France less, so the factory sector can

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Speaker 2: stall in contraction mode, but a little bit less than

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Speaker 2: it was in the UK. The things in positive territory,

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Speaker 2: but again just obviously concerns over the budgets still in

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Speaker 2: a bit of a case of the manufacturing sector remaining

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Speaker 2: contract in the services sector expanding more. So it's a

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Speaker 2: bit of a theme outside of the US. Generally Japanese

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Speaker 2: factory activity that contracted a bit more services did a

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Speaker 2: bit better than expected. This has given the central making

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Speaker 2: a bit more Wiggorouno raised rates, so they did so

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Speaker 2: on Friday, increased rates to zero point five percent. But

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Speaker 2: that's the highest in seventeen years. China is still a

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Speaker 2: picture of weakness, particular in the manufacturing sectors. That's a

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Speaker 2: little bit of odds of some of the positive data

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Speaker 2: that I've seen lately on those stimulus impacts. And looking

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Speaker 2: across the Tasman the factory p MI in Australia contracted

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Speaker 2: lease in January and in fact it's barely contracting at

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Speaker 2: all now. Services sector expanded at a slower pace, and

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Speaker 2: then we all compare this to a least positive situation.

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Speaker 2: Of course, New Zealand we talked about that last week.

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Speaker 2: Manufacturing sector year in contraction for twenty two consecutive amnths.

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Speaker 2: Services sector is a bit of a standout amongst their partners,

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Speaker 2: but in a bad way, and that it's still going

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Speaker 2: backwards for ten months now. So let's get those rate

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Speaker 2: cats going one.

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Speaker 1: I'm speaking my language, Berbery. Their demand is up for

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Speaker 1: their goods and their share price has jumped as well.

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Speaker 1: Obviously the host has been busy on his holiday.

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Speaker 2: Clearly he has been. Yes, she's a ten percent there

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Speaker 2: on Friday. Year back in Vogue, it's had a bit

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Speaker 2: of a checkered time of it over the last year

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Speaker 2: or so. But sales and three months of deceend but

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Speaker 2: they declined four percent, but they had forecasts to a

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Speaker 2: decline of twelve percent, so that was a lot better

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Speaker 2: than expected. The festive shopping period went pretty well. And

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Speaker 2: again I suppose consistent with some of the avadad and

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Speaker 2: just talked about sales ticked up in America America. This

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Speaker 2: is a bit of a resurgency here across the luxury

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Speaker 2: could set down as a view that you know, Trump's

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Speaker 2: initials will keep that spending go. I mean, when we

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Speaker 2: look at Bary in particular, it's had four CEOs of

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Speaker 2: the past decade, actually been around for in the nearly

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Speaker 2: one hundred and seventy years, so they've got another CEO

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Speaker 2: having a crack trying to reinvigorate things. I mean, Data

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Speaker 2: of course very much an iconic brand, but did get

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Speaker 2: dealt a bit of a blow to its image as

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Speaker 2: the working class sort of got into the check and

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Speaker 2: stuff from the nineties and two thousands. But they're looking

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Speaker 2: to appeal to wider market, it seems, are lowering pricing,

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Speaker 2: they're focusing on promoting quality in the heritage of its products.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see how it goes. But generally the actually

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Speaker 2: a good sector rund appears to be turning around here.

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Speaker 2: Carti owner Richmond also have the highest quarterly sales ever,

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Speaker 2: so yeah, things are turning around.

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Speaker 1: Of bit interesting back home. Things looking up for the

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Speaker 1: red meat sector.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. So yeah, we know that pricing is

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Speaker 2: going pretty well in the dairy sector, but it's also

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Speaker 2: looking up for red meats. This is rubberbanks twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: five Global Animal Protein Outlook, and it just talked about

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Speaker 2: pricing picking up on a low production Smaller herds sees

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Speaker 2: beef production declining six percent, and twenty twenty five points

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Speaker 2: out that beef was a money maker for New Zealand

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Speaker 2: red meat exports last year. Farmgate returns climb to twenty

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Speaker 2: percent above five year averages. It's on track to remain

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Speaker 2: there this year. There's some moftionial drivers here to production

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Speaker 2: in the US that's contracting, also slowing the likes of

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Speaker 2: Brazil and China. That's good news for our red meat

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Speaker 2: farmer is going to help them. In a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a different story. For sheep, meat returns were down

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Speaker 2: seven percent last year despite volumes being up. Prices at

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Speaker 2: are cyclical lower. In fact, there as much as twenty

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Speaker 2: percent below five averages. But yeah, good news here as well.

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Speaker 2: Ryan pricing has improved recently, and we've also got higher

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Speaker 2: volumes going to markets outside of China, particularly the US,

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Speaker 2: Europe and the UK. And also we've got declining cheap

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Speaker 2: numbers as well, so that's sort of flying through to pricing.

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Speaker 2: They also pointing out the animal production. Animal protein production

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Speaker 2: over all this year is set to grow, driven by poultry.

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Speaker 2: Also a bit of a rebound in seafood, and I

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Speaker 2: guess the week of Kiwi dollar is also good news

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Speaker 2: for our egg exporters. The wild card and all this.

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Speaker 2: You know, what does Trump do and what have had

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Speaker 2: a protections measures play out? Well, I guess we have

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Speaker 2: to wait and see there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll take the good news for now, though, won't we.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a look at the numbers green.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So the US markets paused on Friday in terms

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Speaker 2: of the rally, but ye had a good week, back

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Speaker 2: to back weekly gains. So downdown point three percent, forty

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Speaker 2: four four to two four s and P five hundreds

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Speaker 2: down point three percent, Nare's thatck down half percent, foot

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Speaker 2: Sea down points seven percent, the NICKA was down point

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Speaker 2: one percent in Japan. The ASEX two hundred was down

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Speaker 2: point four percent. Across the Tasman INSX fifty we were

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Speaker 2: down point three percent thirteen zero two four. Notable movie

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Speaker 2: was similarly it was nineteen percent. Back to profitability, it seems.

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Speaker 2: And the commodity markets goal was at fifteen dollars twenty

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Speaker 2: seven hundred and seventy and ounce oil flat seventy four

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Speaker 2: spots sixty six a barrel. Just in the currency market,

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Speaker 2: it's the key. We was up against the US fifty

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Speaker 2: seven point one, were also up against Ozzie ninety point

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Speaker 2: four and against stealing were down half percent forty five

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Speaker 2: point seven. This week plenty going on. We've got trade data,

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Speaker 2: business consume conference reads, it's naturally. We've got OS inflation,

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Speaker 2: US inflation, European GBGDP. We've got the ECB rate decision.

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Speaker 2: Of course, we've got the FED meeting as well, and

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Speaker 2: you look at earnings. Lots going on in big tech thereon.

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Speaker 2: We've got numbers from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and Apple.

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Speaker 1: All the big ones. Thanks so much, Greg, Greg Smith,

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Speaker 1: Devins Funs Management.

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