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Speaker 1: The latest am Z Business Outlooks Survey, not Consumer Outlooks Survey.

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Speaker 1: Sorry I put you wrong. Earlier Business outlook Survey is

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Speaker 1: out and paint a mixed picture. The overall confidence up

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Speaker 1: four points, but companies confidence in their own futures taking

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Speaker 1: a bit of a hit. Liam Dan's with usny's Allen Herrell,

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Speaker 1: Business Editor at Large, highlyamb good Ryan, Yeah, good to

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Speaker 1: have you on. So what are these figures telling us?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, mixed mixed picture. All right. Look, I wanted

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Speaker 2: to put the most upbeat thing in the headline. So

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Speaker 2: they were telling us that the recession is over probably,

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Speaker 2: I mean that so it measures it also measures past

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Speaker 2: performance and looking back over the last few months, businesses

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Speaker 2: were more upbeat than they had been about what they've

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Speaker 2: just been through. That. So am z's chief economist Sharon

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Speaker 2: Zoel was saying, well, it does look like that points

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Speaker 2: to the recession being over. So that's good news. And

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Speaker 2: then broad confidence, you know about things getting better. I

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Speaker 2: mean we've we've had this before. I mean, things were

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Speaker 2: so bad they had to be had to be getting better, right,

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Speaker 2: So that's up up again four points to plus fifty

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Speaker 2: eight in the net equation that they do, but a

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Speaker 2: little bit of an easing in their own business expectations,

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Speaker 2: So how they think their business might go in the

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Speaker 2: sort of year ahead, just just by one point though,

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Speaker 2: so pretty marginal. I mean it could be margin of

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Speaker 2: ra stuff. And it just is a reminder that this

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Speaker 2: is not a boom we're back in boom times type recovery.

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Speaker 2: This is a bit of a slow grind out. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's definitely going to feel better than recession because we

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Speaker 2: will have some growth, but it's not suddenly back to

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Speaker 2: a sort of a rock star economy so to speak.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to ask you how they could

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Speaker 1: how you can walk into how you both those things

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Speaker 1: can be true at the same time. How business leaders

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Speaker 1: can feel confident about the wider economy but none of

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Speaker 1: them feel good about themselves. But knowing the actual numbers,

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Speaker 1: I can see how you know how that might be.

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Speaker 2: It's sort of it can be the other way around

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Speaker 2: sometimes too. So they are them how they're feeling about

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Speaker 2: the economy overall, and that's I think where they're feeling

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Speaker 2: a bit more upbeat. You can see, you know, lower

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Speaker 2: interest rates starting to have the impact that we'd expect

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Speaker 2: and get things moving a bit make our households feel

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Speaker 2: a bit more secure in their cash flow as mortgage

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Speaker 2: rates come down, But still pretty tough for those businesses,

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Speaker 2: especially when you look at the sectors. So retail and

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Speaker 2: construction still doing it pretty tough as you might expect

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Speaker 2: with the kind of dairy returns and that sort of

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Speaker 2: thing that we're seeing. Agriculture sector is certainly a lot

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Speaker 2: more upbeat. So yeah, look, I think it's going to

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Speaker 2: take a while for retail and construction to sort of

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Speaker 2: grind their way back into positive territory.

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Speaker 1: Is so obviously this year where well we're hoping this

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Speaker 1: year is about recovery. But when will we start we

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Speaker 1: start feeling like it's a rest.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's a good question. I think they have got

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Speaker 2: their consumer confidence. You know, we're all consumers. I think

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Speaker 2: they've got their consumer confidence numbers tomorrow, so that will

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Speaker 2: be a little bit of indication. I think it takes

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Speaker 2: just a bit of time. I mean, I know people

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Speaker 2: are on shorter mortgage rate, fixed terms and things, but

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Speaker 2: it does take a bit of time to get back

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Speaker 2: into feeling confident from you know, even though you might

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Speaker 2: be getting a break on the mortgage or you know,

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Speaker 2: we've still got that job uncertainty is unemployment we know

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Speaker 2: lags a bit in the economic cycle, and that is

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Speaker 2: still probably likely to rise in the next thing, you know,

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Speaker 2: probably next next numbers, and so maybe peaking in the

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Speaker 2: middle of the year, and then we start to see

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Speaker 2: you know, employment come back stronger as well, and that's

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Speaker 2: probably when people are starting to feel a bit more

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Speaker 2: secure to go out and spending to spend on big items.

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Speaker 2: So that's probably more towards the second half of the

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Speaker 2: year realistically.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting stuff. Hey, thanks Liam, good to have you on.

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Speaker 1: As always, Lamb dan insi Herald's Business editor at large.

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Speaker 1: For more from Heather Duplessyellen Drive, listen live to news talks.

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