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Speaker 1: So the job numbers today, which might indicate a couple

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Speaker 1: of things. One are they up and if so, by

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Speaker 1: how much? And two is that it is today the

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Speaker 1: worst of it and jobs being the last cab oft

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Speaker 1: the old economic turnaround rank? Are we headed for better days?

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Speaker 1: Michael Gordon, Westpac's senior economists, back with this, Michael, morning,

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Speaker 1: Good morning. What you got five point three?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we've got five point three. I think, like most

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Speaker 2: of the market are expecting, we're starting to see a

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Speaker 2: bit of statilization in the employment numbers. It's encouraging, but

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Speaker 2: bear in mind we're still getting people coming out of

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Speaker 2: school coming into the country looking for work. We're not

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Speaker 2: really doing enough to absorb those people into the workforce

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Speaker 2: just yet.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't too long ago that some people were saying

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Speaker 1: five point five and I'll never forget that I read sex.

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Speaker 1: When did that materially change? And do we think five

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Speaker 1: to two five three is about it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think it's been a bit of realization about

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Speaker 2: the effects of basically participation in the workforce is absorbed

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Speaker 2: some and essentially it's really come to the younger people

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Speaker 2: in particular, so as they've been I guess, first on

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Speaker 2: the chopping block. As the economy slowed, a lot of

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Speaker 2: them have gone back to school or stayed in school

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Speaker 2: for longer, so they're showing up in the ranks of

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Speaker 2: not in the workforce as opposed to actively unemployed and

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Speaker 2: seeking work.

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Speaker 1: These last couple of weeks where we've seen the numbers

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Speaker 1: of job ads going up, when does that materially feed

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Speaker 1: through to these sort of numbers we'll see today, I

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Speaker 1: think it will.

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Speaker 2: Take a wee while. I guess while the job ads

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Speaker 2: have been heading up a little bit, they're still at

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Speaker 2: a very low level, so there's always some tune that

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Speaker 2: goes on and so some advertising that's needed. But we're

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Speaker 2: still kind of at levels of job vacancies that are

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Speaker 2: not much above tune. So I think we need to

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Speaker 2: see quite a bit more progress on there.

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Speaker 1: And today how lumpy, how industry region all.

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Speaker 2: Of that, Well, I think with the number today it's

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Speaker 2: always lumpy, just because it is a survey, you have

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Speaker 2: to be a little bit wary of getting some surprises there.

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Speaker 2: But I think if you look at some of the

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Speaker 2: other jobs indicators we've had, there's probably a sense of

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Speaker 2: South Island's doing better than the North Island. Effectively, I

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Speaker 2: think the kind of the rural influence has some decent

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Speaker 2: commodity prices at the moment's helping yell exactly.

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Speaker 1: So the forecast for next year, you think, as you

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Speaker 1: sit here talking to us this morning, is what down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're expecting it to peak by the end of

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Speaker 2: this year. For the unemployment rates about five point four

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Speaker 2: I mean, don't want to be too precise about the

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Speaker 2: exact decimal place, but we do expect it to improve

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Speaker 2: somewhat gradually over next year. But getting below I think

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Speaker 2: five percent marked by the end of next year.

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Speaker 1: And the cut coming, assuming there is one of twenty

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Speaker 1: five points, does that materially play into any of this

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Speaker 1: or not?

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Speaker 2: I think it's I mean, it's all helpful. I think

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Speaker 2: at this point the kinds of interest rates that people face,

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Speaker 2: so your morbit rates, deposit rates, business loan rates, and

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Speaker 2: so on, are baking in that additional twenty five point

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Speaker 2: cut in the b reserve back. If they did more,

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Speaker 2: then we might get a bit more movement on those

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Speaker 2: interest rates and add a bit more juice to the economy.

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Speaker 2: But at the moment, there seems to be a pretty

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Speaker 2: well settled opinion in the market that there will be

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Speaker 2: another twenty five in no end.

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Speaker 1: Okay, appreciate your expertise, Michael Gordon, WISPACT cast Senior Economists.

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