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Speaker 1: Afternoon, it looks like there may be trouble for the

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Speaker 1: Orca security pack. The US is reviewing it to make

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Speaker 1: sure it aligns with Donald Trump's America First Agenda agenda. Now.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Michael fully Up is the executive director of the

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Speaker 1: Loewe Institute in Australia. Michael, Hello, Hello, Heather Michael. Central

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Speaker 1: to the still, obviously, are those hugely expensive submarines. Is

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Speaker 1: Australia still going to be buying those?

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Speaker 2: I think at this stage, I mean, there's the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration has called a thirty day review into the Orcus arrangement,

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Speaker 2: but it's not that unusual for new governments to review

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Speaker 2: adeals that have been made by their predecessors. I note

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Speaker 2: that all of the most senior people around President Trump

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Speaker 2: are in favor of AUCUS, including his National Security Advisor

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Speaker 2: and Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Defense Secretary

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Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth. The Australian government says it's full steam ahead.

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Speaker 2: We release polling today that shows at sixty seven percent

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Speaker 2: of Australians think it's in Australia interest to have to

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Speaker 2: acquire nuclear powered submarine. So I think at this stage

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Speaker 2: it's important not to freak out. And at this stage, yes,

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Speaker 2: I think it is going ahead.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I mean we had all just assumed that this

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Speaker 1: was their way of getting out of it, So you're

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Speaker 1: pretty confident it's going to keep going. What is the

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Speaker 1: reason then for the review? Is it to apply pressure

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Speaker 1: to Australia?

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Speaker 2: Well, I yeah, I mean it's a matter of speculation.

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Speaker 2: It's possible, of course that the review comes out in

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Speaker 2: a negative way for August. But when I spoke to

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Speaker 2: my Washington contacts this morning, for example, most people think

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Speaker 2: the Trump administration is unlikely to kill Aucus. They're more likely,

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Speaker 2: I think, to use this as leverage, perhaps to encourage

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Speaker 2: Australia to spend more on defense.

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Speaker 1: Right, And do you think that'll be enough to get

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Speaker 1: them to basically commit to this pact?

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Speaker 2: To get the Trump administration?

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Speaker 1: Yes, If Australia was to lift its spending on defense,

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Speaker 1: which is clearly what Trump wants everyone basically to do,

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Speaker 1: would that be enough for Trump to commit to this pack?

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Speaker 2: Well, I wouldn't. I wouldn't present it quite in that way, Heather.

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Speaker 2: I think Australia. I think Australia should increase its defense spending.

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Speaker 2: The reason for that is not to give a trophy

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Speaker 2: to Donald Trump or to win an argument over Ucus.

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Speaker 2: But the reason for that is that the world is

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Speaker 2: much more dangerous than it has been for a long time,

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Speaker 2: and almost all of our like minded countries and democracies

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Speaker 2: around the world, in response to the kind of behavior

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Speaker 2: from Russia and China, are increasing their defense budgets and

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Speaker 2: improving the capabilities of their defense force. So I think

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Speaker 2: we should be doing that in our own interest. I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't say that's part of the quid pro quo on

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Speaker 2: Orcus from the Australian point of.

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Speaker 1: View now, But notwithstanding whether it's the right thing to do,

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Speaker 1: and I agree with you obviously, I mean, the world

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Speaker 1: is a different place to what it was thirty years ago.

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Speaker 1: Let's say everybody should be thinking about this. But notwithstanding

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Speaker 1: whether it's the right thing to do. That is clearly

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Speaker 1: what Trump wants, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is all speculation. We don't really know what

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Speaker 2: Trump thinks about this. You might remember that President Trump

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Speaker 2: was asked about Aucust I think it was in February,

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Speaker 2: and he didn't recognize the acronym. So I don't I

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Speaker 2: suspect he doesn't have a settled view on Aucus. And

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Speaker 2: I think, to answer your question, it depends on how

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Speaker 2: on how his officials present Aucust to him. If an

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Speaker 2: Orcust skeptic like Elbridge Colby, who is running this review,

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Speaker 2: says look, boss, this is not in our interests because

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Speaker 2: we don't have enough submarines to go around, then mister

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Speaker 2: Trump won't like it. It won't appeal to the America

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Speaker 2: First mentality. If, on the other hand, his Secretary of State,

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Speaker 2: his National Security Advisor, his Defense secretary say this is

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Speaker 2: in our interest because the Australians are investing in the

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Speaker 2: defense industrial base and this will strengthen the alliance with

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Speaker 2: Australia and there'll be more allied capability to ter poor

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Speaker 2: behavior by China, then that feels like a win for

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Speaker 2: an America First to like President Trump. So I think

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Speaker 2: a lot of it, As with everything in this administration,

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Speaker 2: a lot of it comes down to President Trump's personal response,

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Speaker 2: and we don't yet know what that is on ORCT.

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Speaker 1: Michael, thanks for your time. I really appreciate it, Doctor

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Speaker 1: Michael fully Love, who's the executive director at the Lowe Institute.

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