WEBVTT - How long will spring’s wild winds keep roaring across the country?

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<v Speaker 1>Kioda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,

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<v Speaker 1>a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. New

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<v Speaker 1>Zealand has been experiencing some wild weather this week. Red

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<v Speaker 1>wind warnings were issued for much of Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington

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<v Speaker 1>and southern Wadded Upper As it yesterday afternoon, flights and

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<v Speaker 1>fairies were canceled and tens of thousands of households have

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<v Speaker 1>been without power. Meanwhile, strong winds have been hampering firefighting

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<v Speaker 1>efforts in several parts of the country. So is this

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<v Speaker 1>usual for this time of year? And how long will

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<v Speaker 1>we have to wait for some sunny days ahead? Today

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<v Speaker 1>on the Front Page, Newer Principal scientist Chris Brandolino is

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<v Speaker 1>with us to take us through what's causing this stormy

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<v Speaker 1>weather and whether there is in fact a lot at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the tunnel. First off, Chris tell us

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<v Speaker 1>why this is happening, what's causing these high winds across

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<v Speaker 1>the country.

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<v Speaker 2>Two words pressure gradient, So you may be wondering what

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<v Speaker 2>the heck is that. Basically, yeah, it describes the change

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<v Speaker 2>of air pressure over distance. So think of it this way.

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<v Speaker 2>Replace the term pressure gradient with elevation change. Imagine, if

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<v Speaker 2>you're a cyclist, you're at the top of a hill,

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<v Speaker 2>right and you're gonna go down the hill. You're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>go a lot faster if the hill is steep, right,

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<v Speaker 2>going from the top of the hill to the bottom

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<v Speaker 2>of the hill, you'll go maybe not as fast. If

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<v Speaker 2>that hill is more gentle or not as steep, that

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<v Speaker 2>elevation change isn't as dramatic. Think of high pressure in

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<v Speaker 2>the atmosphere, like the top of the hill. High pressure

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<v Speaker 2>brings nice weather. And for those listening or watching from

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<v Speaker 2>the upper North Island, Auckland and Hamilton and toward Northland,

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<v Speaker 2>we had some beautiful weather on Sunday, going back to

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<v Speaker 2>the weekend, even better weather on Monday, not so bad

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<v Speaker 2>on Tuesday. That was because of high pressure. Now that's

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<v Speaker 2>one end of the spectrum. On the other end of

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<v Speaker 2>the spectrum, low pressure is like a hole in the

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<v Speaker 2>atmosphere and Mother Nature is trying to fill that hole

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<v Speaker 2>with the fluid called air. And so when you have

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<v Speaker 2>high pressure top of the hill, low pressure kind of

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<v Speaker 2>bottom of the hill, or a hole a valley. If

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<v Speaker 2>they're quite distinct in terms of one being high, one

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<v Speaker 2>being quite lower deep, then your elevation change or your

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<v Speaker 2>pressure gradient could be quite dramatic. And that is what

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<v Speaker 2>causes wind, is pressure gradient, the change in air pressure

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<v Speaker 2>over distance. If you think of it like a mountain

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<v Speaker 2>in a hill, if that makes sense.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, when we hear about wind warnings of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and thirty one hundred and fifty two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>kilometers an hour, what does that actually look like in

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<v Speaker 1>real terms?

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<v Speaker 2>I think you just go on media right now, social

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<v Speaker 2>media to see the impact. You know, when you see

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<v Speaker 2>wing gusts of you know, one hundred and seventy one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and eighty two hundred k you're getting to like,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, category two, category three tropical cyclone intensity. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>this is not a tropical cyclone, but it's the intensity.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, you're trying to wrap your head around this,

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<v Speaker 2>and that is what can cause you know, these bursts

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<v Speaker 2>of wind which are wing gusts to three second bursts

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<v Speaker 2>of win That is what generally causes a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>the damage. And we've seen that play out. We've seen

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<v Speaker 2>wing gusts. I was just looking Invercargo. I had a

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<v Speaker 2>win gus to think of one hundred I'm looking off

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<v Speaker 2>screen here one hundred and thirty seven k and over

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<v Speaker 2>toward Gore a wing gust of one hundred and twenty

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<v Speaker 2>four k I believe, one hundred Yeah, and at Wellington

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<v Speaker 2>at the airport one hundred and twenty six and Cayle

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<v Speaker 2>Cow and Wellington Kyalkou the mountain there one hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>fifty five kilometers per hour. So that type of wing gust.

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<v Speaker 2>If you can't wrap your head around, just go to

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<v Speaker 2>social media and you see like the pine trees leaning down,

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<v Speaker 2>and like a whole row of pine trees over toward

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<v Speaker 2>Hamner Forest leaning down on power lines, you know, or

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<v Speaker 2>roofs being lifted, you know, obviously the trampolines and you

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<v Speaker 2>know any deck furniture things like that that'll be you know,

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<v Speaker 2>that could be k's down the road or you know,

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<v Speaker 2>half k hundreds of meters anyway, Yeah, is.

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<v Speaker 1>This usual for this time of year?

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<v Speaker 2>Uh? Not to this degree. I mean this is what

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<v Speaker 2>the red warning, you know, the red warning kind of

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<v Speaker 2>you know, reflects the unusual nature. We don't see those

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<v Speaker 2>every day, that's for sure. Look, spring is always a

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<v Speaker 2>changeable season. And with that change that that that variety.

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<v Speaker 2>I like to call spring the teenager of season because

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of mood swings ups and downs, and with

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<v Speaker 2>that moodiness comes win. So you know, it's not unusual

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<v Speaker 2>to have windy PIDs in spring. That's part of spring.

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<v Speaker 2>But this is like, this is next level, and what's

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<v Speaker 2>driving that is kind of nerdy. We've had a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of low pressure that whole in the atmosphere I've talked about, right,

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<v Speaker 2>we had a over the subn Ocean, so the Suthern

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<v Speaker 2>Ocean is that big body of water separating New Zealand

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<v Speaker 2>and Antarctica, you know, down to the ice and we've

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<v Speaker 2>had low pressure just favoring and continuously moving through the

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<v Speaker 2>Southern Ocean, brushing against the South Island at times, and

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<v Speaker 2>that has been a big reason for our wind, our

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<v Speaker 2>strong westerly wind. Why is that low pressure in the

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<v Speaker 2>Southern Ocean? Why is it there a lot? Well, believed

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<v Speaker 2>it or not, We can trace that back to Antarctica

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<v Speaker 2>of all places. So at the very top of the atmosphere,

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<v Speaker 2>like way at the very top over the South Pole

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<v Speaker 2>back in September, the temperatures got really warm, really fast,

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<v Speaker 2>at least for that part of the atmosphere. And when

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<v Speaker 2>that happened, kind of jumping to the chase, if you will.

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<v Speaker 2>What that did is that that kind of displaced all

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<v Speaker 2>that low pressure that typically favors the Antarctic region, what

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<v Speaker 2>we call the polar vortex. It basically allowed for that

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<v Speaker 2>low pressure to be displaced into the Southern Ocean, and

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<v Speaker 2>because of that, we now have these strong westerly winds,

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<v Speaker 2>big hole in the atmosphere, if you will, over the

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<v Speaker 2>southern ocean, kind of a decent sized mountain near northern

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<v Speaker 2>New Zealand, and that those two features are creating that

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<v Speaker 2>pressure gradient, that change in pressure or as we said before,

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<v Speaker 2>that change in elevation. And this is why we've seen

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<v Speaker 2>these persistent episodes of high wind. We saw them earlier

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<v Speaker 2>in their week, we see we're seeing them now and

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<v Speaker 2>guess what, we're probably gonna see it again next week

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<v Speaker 2>on Labor Day. So just the heads up for those

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<v Speaker 2>getting a headstart on the unofficial start to the I

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<v Speaker 2>guess summer season, be mindful that Monday of next week

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<v Speaker 2>things are still you know, crystallizing, but there will be

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<v Speaker 2>another low coming from the west and north, and that

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<v Speaker 2>will probably bring with it another round of active weather,

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<v Speaker 2>probably not to the degree we're seeing today, but still

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<v Speaker 2>could be quite impactful because it's a big travel day

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<v Speaker 2>and people will be you know, enjoying the public holiday.

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<v Speaker 2>So that is something we could see again. And we

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<v Speaker 2>could see some really cold temperatures, unusually cold temperatures behind

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<v Speaker 2>that on Tuesday, which could impact farmers and livestock because

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<v Speaker 2>we'renowned to the growing season. So because of these big swings,

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<v Speaker 2>like right now in kai Kota, it got to more

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<v Speaker 2>than thirty degrees today, thirty degrees but yeah, and then

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<v Speaker 2>we're talking about much cooler temperatures tomorrow. Then we're talking

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<v Speaker 2>about temperatures going up on Sunday and Monday, Labor Day,

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<v Speaker 2>then going back down on Tuesday. Those big temperature changes,

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<v Speaker 2>they are congruent with wind. Whenever you have these big

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<v Speaker 2>temperature changes, oftentimes a reflection of those temperature changes up

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<v Speaker 2>and down that roller coaster is strong wind. So what

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<v Speaker 2>we're seeing play out high wind, active weather, big temperature changes,

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<v Speaker 2>they're all kind of connected.

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<v Speaker 1>Have we any idea when things should stabilize?

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<v Speaker 2>That's a great question. Look, if you would have asked

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<v Speaker 2>me that, if we were talking like a month ago,

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<v Speaker 2>if you asked me that question, I would have said,

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<v Speaker 2>with a fair bit of confidence, Oh, it'll come right,

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<v Speaker 2>middle second half of October. Well, guess what. We're in

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<v Speaker 2>the second half of October and we're still talking about it.

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<v Speaker 2>What I talked about over Antarctica, that rapid warming at

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<v Speaker 2>the very tippy top of the atmosphere. That's called a

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<v Speaker 2>sudden stratospheric warming event. We just call it SSW. So

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<v Speaker 2>use an SSW drop that in your dinner time conversation.

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<v Speaker 2>You'll raise some eyebrows. That SSW that tends to have

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<v Speaker 2>lingering effects weeks several weeks after. So it looks like

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<v Speaker 2>this sort of pattern where we have active weather, strong westerlies,

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<v Speaker 2>things like that, up and down with temperature. It's probably

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<v Speaker 2>going to continue through at least the rest of October.

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<v Speaker 2>So we got another week or so, and if you

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<v Speaker 2>look at the long range guidance, it actually may go

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<v Speaker 2>into the first ten days of November, so we may

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<v Speaker 2>have to wait until the middle second week, third week

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<v Speaker 2>of November. Once that happens, it will happen eventually. It's

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<v Speaker 2>a matter of being delayed but not denied. But when

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<v Speaker 2>it does happen, the expectation as will have settled weather

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<v Speaker 2>kick in over the country, high pressure and we should

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<v Speaker 2>see a change in the rainfall patterns. So for the

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<v Speaker 2>past couple months, since the beginning of spring, it's the

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<v Speaker 2>west of the South Island that's been getting hammered with

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of rain, mountains, snow, high wind. That's probably

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<v Speaker 2>gonna and we have dry weather for the eastern part

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<v Speaker 2>of the islands, especially up toward Hawk's Bay where they

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<v Speaker 2>have some pretty dry conditions. Once we see that pattern shift,

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<v Speaker 2>our winds are going to shift. And when our wind shift,

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<v Speaker 2>so does the rainfall pattern. So as we work our

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<v Speaker 2>way into the second half of November and into summer

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<v Speaker 2>proper December, January, and February, odds are we should see

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<v Speaker 2>the areas that have been wet Western and lower South

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<v Speaker 2>Island they should become drier, and areas that have been

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<v Speaker 2>dry Hawk's Bay, Eastern Northland, their odds for rainfall should

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<v Speaker 2>start going up. It may take another two three four weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>That happened.

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<v Speaker 1>Our power has gone out in the big Pine Tree,

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<v Speaker 1>one of them has just gone over. There is flying everywhere,

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<v Speaker 1>plastic milk, things flying.

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<v Speaker 2>From god knows where. Stuff is just coming from everywhere

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<v Speaker 2>that the fences are also down. Those deer are going

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<v Speaker 2>to disappear.

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<v Speaker 1>Up that river, a roof ti up, we just lost

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<v Speaker 1>out of the roof.

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<v Speaker 2>But the pine tree shelter about of the neighbors.

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<v Speaker 1>And the trees are just going over like dominoes dog.

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<v Speaker 1>And we're only at one hundred and six k.

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<v Speaker 2>So if we get up to one fifty's going, oh

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<v Speaker 2>my god, turn the power off.

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<v Speaker 1>That roof's gone.

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<v Speaker 2>That's part of it there, and then the other part

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<v Speaker 2>of it is where over the other side of the road.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we all know that climate change has a huge

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<v Speaker 1>impact on weather patterns. I mean, surely by now everybody

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<v Speaker 1>must know this is that what's at play here? Are

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<v Speaker 1>we still within what's called normal weather patterns.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, climate change doesn't cause extreme weather, just like fertilizer

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't make grass grow. It makes it grow better, makes

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<v Speaker 2>it grow faster and overcome things. But climate change does.

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<v Speaker 2>It makes extreme weather a more extreme, b makes it

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<v Speaker 2>more likely to happen, and c makes it more frequent.

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<v Speaker 2>So climate change in itself isn't the culprit for extreme weather.

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<v Speaker 2>Extreme weather has always happened, as we know, but it

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<v Speaker 2>makes the extremes higher or more extreme, and the frequency

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<v Speaker 2>and the likelihood of them grow with climate change. So

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<v Speaker 2>to your you know, if people are wondering this weather

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<v Speaker 2>event that we're seeing now is that because of climate change. Look,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not a climate change expert. My guess is that

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<v Speaker 2>it's not because of climate change, but there may be

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<v Speaker 2>some footprints of climate change, maybe because of warmer than

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<v Speaker 2>usual oceans around New Zealand the Tasman. See, if you

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<v Speaker 2>have a warmer ocean, warmer than usual, that puts more water, vapor,

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<v Speaker 2>more energy in the air, and that sort of energy

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<v Speaker 2>can help fuel storm. But it's a complex process. No

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<v Speaker 2>one event is caused by climate change, but as I say,

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<v Speaker 2>it makes these events more frequent, more likely, and more intense.

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<v Speaker 1>So easy to think about the damage in sensational terms.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you've got trees falling on cars, roofs being

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<v Speaker 1>lifted off buildings, et cetera. But there's also things like

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<v Speaker 1>planes being grounded, power outages. I mean, Nelson Hospital suffered

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<v Speaker 1>a forty five minute power outage yesterday, and forty five

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<v Speaker 1>minutes might not seem like a lot, but when you've

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<v Speaker 1>got people hooked up to machines or breathing for them,

0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.600
<v Speaker 1>then it's really serious. What are some of the less

0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:02.959
<v Speaker 1>I suppose sensational but still very costly or dangerous risks

0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:04.680
<v Speaker 1>of severe weather well.

0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:07.800
<v Speaker 2>I think people's mental well being is one of them.

0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:12.520
<v Speaker 2>You know, just think about for those who experienced the

0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:16.319
<v Speaker 2>severe weather events back in early twenty twenty three, when

0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.080
<v Speaker 2>we had the Auckland Anniversary flooding, and then we had

0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:22.720
<v Speaker 2>cyclone Gabrielle, and then you know, there are other flooding

0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:25.760
<v Speaker 2>events after that, and you just you start to get

0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.040
<v Speaker 2>a bit jumpy. I mean I did, and I produce

0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:30.920
<v Speaker 2>is my living and every time there'd be a heavy downpour,

0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.120
<v Speaker 2>it kind of triggers you a little bit, you know.

0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:37.280
<v Speaker 2>So I think people's mental health and is one facet

0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:41.680
<v Speaker 2>of how people can be affected adversely by high impact

0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:45.440
<v Speaker 2>weather events. Obviously, your insurance claims, you know, when you

0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:47.520
<v Speaker 2>have to you know, if your house gets destroyed or

0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:49.720
<v Speaker 2>your roof gets torn off, or you have flooding to

0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:51.760
<v Speaker 2>deal with, you're gonna have to put a claim in

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.120
<v Speaker 2>and you know, odds are your claim's gonna your insurance

0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:57.080
<v Speaker 2>premiums are gonna go up, even you know if the

0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.600
<v Speaker 2>claim is sorted, and you know, but it's dealing with

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:01.960
<v Speaker 2>all the sort of those day to day you know,

0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:04.160
<v Speaker 2>your day to day life. I can only imagine, you know,

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:06.199
<v Speaker 2>if my roof is blown off, you know, it's one

0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:08.080
<v Speaker 2>thing you got to make dinner and go about doing

0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:09.880
<v Speaker 2>your business day to day. But if you have no roof,

0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:12.440
<v Speaker 2>it just throws a complete spanner in the works. It

0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:14.720
<v Speaker 2>just and that goes back to the mental health component.

0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:17.520
<v Speaker 1>I suppose that weather fatigue.

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:21.920
<v Speaker 2>Hey yeah, yeah, exactly, great, great term fatigue exactly. So

0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.360
<v Speaker 2>I mean it's things like that. It's things like maybe

0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:27.360
<v Speaker 2>you know, if you know, it could be if trucks

0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:29.920
<v Speaker 2>are driving and they're they're pushed over on the roadway.

0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 2>You know, maybe that's a delivery that doesn't get somewhere,

0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:35.960
<v Speaker 2>so people's businesses, things have to shut down. So maybe

0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 2>there's an impact of the economy. So there's a lot

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.480
<v Speaker 2>of sort of I guess, long reaching things that we

0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:44.760
<v Speaker 2>could probably have a pretty long conversation about that it's

0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:47.600
<v Speaker 2>are hard to maybe quantify without you know, that's probably

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.400
<v Speaker 2>kind of a research or a science questions like how

0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:53.600
<v Speaker 2>do you quantify the impacts of a significant weather event

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.720
<v Speaker 2>or a multitude of significant weather events that are in succession,

0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, how, you know, beside the obvious of you know,

0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.920
<v Speaker 2>people's injury and property damage, And I imagine that would

0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:06.320
<v Speaker 2>be long reaching, and that would be kind of from

0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:08.920
<v Speaker 2>a science perspective, kind of fascinating in some ways. I

0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:09.920
<v Speaker 2>would think we're.

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:13.680
<v Speaker 1>Talking to you on Thursday afternoon, of course, while the

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.720
<v Speaker 1>warnings are still in place. But already there's been a

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.320
<v Speaker 1>tragic death of a man in Willington who was struck

0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:22.080
<v Speaker 1>by a falling branch, and there could be more damage

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:24.440
<v Speaker 1>and injuries by the time this episode is published.

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:25.720
<v Speaker 2>But as a.

0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:29.960
<v Speaker 1>Stark reminder, I think of the power of these systems.

0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 1>Do we take these things seriously enough?

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:37.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's kind of a tough one because I mean,

0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.840
<v Speaker 2>the red warnings are really good, because what's built into

0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:43.160
<v Speaker 2>a red warning is like, oh, this is different. I

0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:45.760
<v Speaker 2>need to behave differently, I need to really think about

0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 2>my decisions if I'm on if I'm in that red

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:51.880
<v Speaker 2>warning area. But when you go to other warnings, potentially

0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:55.760
<v Speaker 2>there is an element of like, well, how does this

0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:59.400
<v Speaker 2>event different from another event that maybe isn't quite so severe.

0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.520
<v Speaker 2>I know MET Service, we're working with met Service. Obviously.

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.520
<v Speaker 2>MET Service is becoming part of the Earth Sciences New

0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:08.160
<v Speaker 2>Zealand Fauna where you know GNS and NEILO they were separate.

0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:10.640
<v Speaker 2>Now we're one met Service coming into the fold, which

0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 2>is great because we need this as a country in

0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:15.480
<v Speaker 2>order to deal with what mother nature throws our away.

0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:17.400
<v Speaker 2>So this is a really good thing. And one of

0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:19.480
<v Speaker 2>the things that I know met Service is doing and

0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:23.320
<v Speaker 2>they're keenon progressing, is kind of changing the warning system

0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:27.000
<v Speaker 2>and improving the warning system. So hopefully those changes will

0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:30.320
<v Speaker 2>will address some of the things that that what your

0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:33.360
<v Speaker 2>question is about. But I think I think at the

0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:35.560
<v Speaker 2>heart of it and any warning system. This could be

0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:37.520
<v Speaker 2>an Aussie, this could be in America, this could be

0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:40.720
<v Speaker 2>in the UK. Is you hear about a warning and

0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:42.880
<v Speaker 2>then oh, yeah, the weather is bad, but maybe you

0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:45.600
<v Speaker 2>didn't have a big impact. Maybe your house didn't get

0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:49.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, damaged, or maybe your property wasn't damaged by

0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 2>falling trees, and so you hear there's another warning coming,

0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.920
<v Speaker 2>and you know you're gonna go by memory. Well, heck,

0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:58.400
<v Speaker 2>the last time there was a warning, nothing really happened

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:00.400
<v Speaker 2>to me. So I don't really you know, I don't

0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:02.960
<v Speaker 2>really need to take any action, or oh yeah, there

0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:06.000
<v Speaker 2>a weather forecasters they get it wrong. You know they're

0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.639
<v Speaker 2>gonna say this and it doesn't really happen. And so

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:10.840
<v Speaker 2>there's a bit of that that's a big social science

0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:13.919
<v Speaker 2>question actually, So this is where social sciences play a

0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:17.320
<v Speaker 2>key role into the development of say, weather warnings, and

0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:20.240
<v Speaker 2>how to communicate them and how to how to basically

0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:22.879
<v Speaker 2>frame them in a lot of ways. So there is

0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:25.199
<v Speaker 2>an element of and hopefully I'm answering your question. I

0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:27.119
<v Speaker 2>realize I'm talking a lot, but maybe not giving you

0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:29.480
<v Speaker 2>a useful answer because it's a hard one to articulate

0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.960
<v Speaker 2>and it's just not my specialty in terms of social science,

0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:35.680
<v Speaker 2>you know, obviously, but I think, you know, just from

0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:38.840
<v Speaker 2>being in the business for so long, people kind of like, ah,

0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:41.320
<v Speaker 2>she'll be right att itude. Well maybe she won't be,

0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:43.959
<v Speaker 2>you know, Like this is where I think there can

0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:47.600
<v Speaker 2>be some improvements from a science and weather provider perspective.

0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:50.080
<v Speaker 2>But I also think there can be some improvements with

0:17:50.200 --> 0:17:54.440
<v Speaker 2>people really taking you know, some education where people do

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:57.240
<v Speaker 2>take the warnings more seriously because they often go by

0:17:57.280 --> 0:18:00.280
<v Speaker 2>what happened before, and just because something happened for it

0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:02.960
<v Speaker 2>and didn't result in a bad impact for you, you know,

0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.680
<v Speaker 2>your roof being torn off, your house being flooded or damaged,

0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:09.800
<v Speaker 2>it doesn't guarantee that will happen again. Unfortunately, weather forecasts

0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:12.639
<v Speaker 2>that can only be so precise. So when the weather

0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.720
<v Speaker 2>warning is issued, they're usually issued for a large area

0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:20.360
<v Speaker 2>like Canterbury. Canterbury is a huge area, but the impacts

0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:23.600
<v Speaker 2>can be quite variable in Canterbury, you know, unless it's

0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:26.760
<v Speaker 2>something has still worked, like Gabrielle, where there was really

0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:30.479
<v Speaker 2>widespread damage. But even then there were you know, not

0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:32.800
<v Speaker 2>you know, there were landslips in one place is but

0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:35.560
<v Speaker 2>not in the other. Some rivers had really really bad flooding,

0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:39.400
<v Speaker 2>some didn't. So part of it, too, is that warnings

0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:42.840
<v Speaker 2>are issued for broad areas, but there can be variable

0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:45.920
<v Speaker 2>impacts within that warning area. Some could have really really

0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:50.040
<v Speaker 2>high impacts and some areas the impacts would be quite pedestrian.

0:18:50.080 --> 0:19:03.800
<v Speaker 2>If at all this is hid, I'll get here. They're

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:10.480
<v Speaker 2>gonna be paid for all, guys. WHOA.

0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:20.679
<v Speaker 1>Look, I've heard a lot of people wondering where is spring,

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:23.560
<v Speaker 1>And I've heard a lot of talk people talk about

0:19:24.240 --> 0:19:28.720
<v Speaker 1>whether the seasons are changing. So at what point do

0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:33.280
<v Speaker 1>you think we scraped with the current season calendar altogether

0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:35.720
<v Speaker 1>and shift everything by a month and call it a day.

0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:42.520
<v Speaker 2>No, I can't do that. Look, seasons are a human construct, right,

0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:46.080
<v Speaker 2>The seasons are changing in the way and we had

0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:49.680
<v Speaker 2>a scientist who since passed on, but doctor Brett Mullen,

0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:51.920
<v Speaker 2>I remember when I first came to at the time NIWA.

0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:56.040
<v Speaker 2>He did a bit of, you know, I guess, a

0:19:56.040 --> 0:20:00.359
<v Speaker 2>bit of an investigation on have has the have the

0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:02.840
<v Speaker 2>seasons changed? And what he did is he looked at

0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:07.560
<v Speaker 2>when the first frost occurred and for select locations around

0:20:07.600 --> 0:20:10.280
<v Speaker 2>the country. And it turned out, and I'm going off

0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:14.280
<v Speaker 2>memory here, hopefully I don't, Butcher his his his findings

0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:20.520
<v Speaker 2>that basically frosts were happening later in autumn. So the

0:20:20.560 --> 0:20:23.760
<v Speaker 2>first frost, you know, it's happening later, deeper into the season,

0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:28.240
<v Speaker 2>and the last frost was happening in springtime was happening earlier.

0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:34.000
<v Speaker 2>So what happens is that the shoulder seasons are getting warmer,

0:20:34.119 --> 0:20:37.880
<v Speaker 2>the shoulder seasons being autumn and spring, right, So what

0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:41.359
<v Speaker 2>we're seeing is that the warmth is lingering longer. So

0:20:41.480 --> 0:20:44.840
<v Speaker 2>when summer ends, we enter autumn, and that warmth is

0:20:44.960 --> 0:20:47.479
<v Speaker 2>lingering a bit longer and longer, and it takes longer

0:20:47.480 --> 0:20:51.200
<v Speaker 2>for that first frost to occur. Also in springtime, we're

0:20:51.240 --> 0:20:54.359
<v Speaker 2>warming up a bit sooner, so the last frost happens

0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:57.440
<v Speaker 2>a bit earlier, so using that as a metric. Yeah,

0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:01.879
<v Speaker 2>the seasons are evolving, but looks people are probably like,

0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:05.320
<v Speaker 2>where a spring? This is spring, man, this is spring. Now,

0:21:05.359 --> 0:21:08.639
<v Speaker 2>I admittedly this is spring kind of next level with

0:21:08.800 --> 0:21:11.439
<v Speaker 2>the high wind and we've seen these damaging wind events.

0:21:11.440 --> 0:21:12.520
<v Speaker 2>We've seen a lot of rain.

0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:17.639
<v Speaker 1>This is spring heating puberty.

0:21:18.040 --> 0:21:21.520
<v Speaker 2>Well said, Yeah, but even even if this spring weren't

0:21:21.520 --> 0:21:25.000
<v Speaker 2>as volatile or as active, and it was maybe a

0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:29.159
<v Speaker 2>notch lower, this would be pretty typical. Acknowledging today and

0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:32.159
<v Speaker 2>Tuesday and other days have not been typical. Just that

0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:34.159
<v Speaker 2>if they were brought down a bit, you know, you

0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:37.280
<v Speaker 2>know that's normal. You know, spring has ups and downs.

0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:39.879
<v Speaker 2>It is the teenager of the seasons.

0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:42.760
<v Speaker 1>Very Moody, thanks for joining us, Chris.

0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:43.600
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for having me.

0:21:46.359 --> 0:21:49.480
<v Speaker 1>That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You

0:21:49.520 --> 0:21:53.280
<v Speaker 1>can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:56.840
<v Speaker 1>at ends a Herald, dot co, dot enz. The Front

0:21:56.880 --> 0:21:59.960
<v Speaker 1>Page is produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who

0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:04.800
<v Speaker 1>also our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front

0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:08.359
<v Speaker 1>Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and

0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:11.760
<v Speaker 1>tune in on Monday for another look behind the headlines,