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Speaker 1: I think Winston Peter's ruling out ever going into coalition

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Speaker 1: with Chippy after the next election is actually more significant

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Speaker 1: than many people will realize, because Winnie was actually Chippy's

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Speaker 1: only credible path back to being prime minister again. Right

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Speaker 1: without Winnie, Chippy is completely stuffed because the alternatives are

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Speaker 1: not real options. I mean, the alternatives are one being

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Speaker 1: a coalition with a couple of looney parties, which you

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Speaker 1: center votes are absolutely not going to go for, so

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Speaker 1: you can absolutely forget about that. The other alternative is

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Speaker 1: that Labour is returned as a majority government again, which

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Speaker 1: is I think, after what happened last time, not going

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Speaker 1: to happen for a very long time again. So basically

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Speaker 1: there is no way back for Chippy. He will not

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Speaker 1: be Prime minister after twenty twenty six. If ever. Now,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people would say to me at this juncture, well,

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Speaker 1: of course, not National were always going to win the

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Speaker 1: next election anyways, this is just a completely spurious argument.

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Speaker 1: But I would say to you Labour's chances are actually

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Speaker 1: a little bit better than you might think, because what

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Speaker 1: we have right now is hardly a wildly popular government.

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Speaker 1: I mean, these guys were elected, remember telling us they

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Speaker 1: were going to turn this economy. Around eighteen months later,

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Speaker 1: they have not turned this economy. Around eighteen months later,

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Speaker 1: we are still in the economic doldrums. We are yet

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Speaker 1: to see a vision economically from the coalition government. The

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Speaker 1: right track wrong track indicator that comes out in multiple

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Speaker 1: polls now is heavily negative for this government. Thousands of

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Speaker 1: people voting with their feet and leaving the country altogether.

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Speaker 1: People vote with their hip pocket, right forget about everything else.

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Speaker 1: If you just look at the economy, that is your

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Speaker 1: greatest determiner of what happens at the election. People vote

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Speaker 1: with their hip pocket, and right now the hip pocket

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Speaker 1: is suffering. It is not looking good for the economy.

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Speaker 1: But also there should be a target right now on

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Speaker 1: Chippy's back in labor, because Winnie's problem is not with labor.

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Speaker 1: Winnie's problem is with Chris Hopkins, which means different leader,

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Speaker 1: and Winston Peters is back in the game as a

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Speaker 1: possibility for labor. Now that requires right That requires labor

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Speaker 1: to roll Chris Hipkins and then their chances are good again. However,

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Speaker 1: that requires Labor actually realizing that they need Winston Peters

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Speaker 1: to coalition government. After twenty twenty six and that requires

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Speaker 1: them also realizing there is no way they can coalesce

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Speaker 1: with the Maori Party because most voters are allergic to

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Speaker 1: the shenanigans that that party get up to. But I

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Speaker 1: don't think Labor is smart enough to realize that yet.

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Speaker 1: Do you. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen

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Speaker 1: live to news Talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays,

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Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio