1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:04,680 Speaker 1: The Huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty Unique Homes 2 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: Uniquely for you on. 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 2: The huddle with me this evening. Thomas Scringer of the 4 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 2: Maximum Institute and Phil GoF, former High Commissioner to the UK, 5 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 2: former Labor Partty leader, former foreign mister, former Auckland mayor. Hello, 6 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 2: are you two good? 7 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 3: I Heather? Hi? Thomas? 8 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,240 Speaker 2: Now Sky TV Thomas? How good is this deal? 9 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:23,959 Speaker 4: Well, they probably overpaid them then A dollar seems a 10 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 4: bit steep. 11 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 5: TV three has always been a bit broke. 12 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 4: I could end up being a good, good deal in 13 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 4: the long term, but it's only a Sky fines efficiencies, 14 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 4: which is to say, you know, job cuts, So it's 15 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 4: sort of if it's good for Sky's business, it's not 16 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 4: good for people who currently work for TV three. This 17 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 4: won't prevent any of that kind of decline there in 18 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 4: terms of jobs available. I mean, if you're SkyTV, you're 19 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 4: in the business of a linear domestic TV programming. 20 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 5: This is a hail Mary. It might not work, but 21 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 5: what else would you do as best? 22 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 2: In my take, yeah, I think so. I think the 23 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 2: people who will be the most gutted about this today, 24 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 2: Phil will be TV and Z. 25 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 3: Don't you think, Well, it ups the level of competition 26 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 3: with TV and Z and that's probably not a bad thing. 27 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 3: The Commerce Commission is clearly okay with it. Warner Brothers 28 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 3: couldn't make a go of it and make it financially. 29 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 3: The Sky people think that they can, and it gives 30 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 3: them real advantages. My worry is what then happens to 31 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 3: the TV three News. I think the decline of TV 32 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 3: three and one less really well resourced news outlet is 33 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 3: never a good thing for coverage of current events and politics. 34 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 3: So I'm hoping that this won't be a further narrowing 35 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 3: of news outlets and where people can get news information from. 36 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 2: Do you watch the TV three news film? 37 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 3: I watch TV and Z on demand largely because then 38 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 3: I can watch it whatever time I want. I probably 39 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 3: could do the same with three. But TV one News 40 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 3: is the resourced news channel. 41 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 2: Well, this is the trouble. This is the trouble, Phil, 42 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 2: what's the point in having TV three News? I mean, 43 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 2: let's be honest about it. It's a pretty cruddy. It's 44 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 2: about I'd give it about a six out of ten 45 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 2: at the moment. So what's the point in having it 46 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 2: if it's just doing a kind of half last job. 47 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:13,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean when I used to watch TV 48 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 3: one and three, you know, particularly when I was in politics, 49 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 3: you'd look avidly at what was showing on each and 50 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 3: how and they did show different perspectives on the same 51 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 3: issues and that was quite useful, and some picked up 52 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 3: issues that the other channel had ignored. And I thought 53 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 3: that diversity of news was a really good thing. Now, 54 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 3: you know, because I've cut back on what, you know, 55 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 3: stuff news can provide for TV three, it's less valuable 56 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 3: than it was, but I think it's still valuable to 57 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 3: have some competition in providing news and different perspectives. 58 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 5: Yeah. 59 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,359 Speaker 2: Now, Thomas, let's talk about the situation in Gaza. How 60 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 2: do you see this actually in reality ending. 61 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 4: Well, I'm not really one to make predictions about how 62 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 4: it will end, but my observation would be is that 63 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 4: I don't think we have any clear light at the 64 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:04,679 Speaker 4: end of the tunnel. Honestly, I was a bit disappointed 65 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 4: with the quality of the statement that New Zealand signed 66 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 4: up to. I think it was somewhat confused, and so 67 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 4: the specific concern I have is that there are kind 68 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 4: of several different parts in the statement. Early on it 69 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 4: talks about the hostages that Hamas currently holds of Israeli nationals, 70 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 4: and it says that a negotiated ceasefire offers the best 71 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 4: hope of bringing them home and ending their agony of 72 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,799 Speaker 4: their families. So the statement is calling for a negotiated 73 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 4: ceasefire to bring the hostages home. But by the end 74 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 4: of the statement it says that we urge the parties 75 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 4: and the international community to unite in the common effort 76 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 4: to bring this terrible conflict to an end through an immediate, 77 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 4: unconditional and permanent ceasefire. 78 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 5: Are they calling for a negotiated cease fire or an 79 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 5: immediate unconditional one? Those are not the same thing. 80 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 2: Fair criticism, phil. 81 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 3: Well. My focus is on the well I would now 82 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 3: turn I'd never view to previously, but the genocide that's 83 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 3: happening against Palestinians in Gaza. You can't starve people to 84 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 3: death and then shoot the people that are desperately seeking 85 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 3: food aid as they go to pick up that aid. 86 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 3: You can't kill over seventeen thousand children and maim tens 87 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 3: of thousands of children and still claim to be a 88 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 3: state that works on the basis of decency and morality. 89 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 3: You can't talk as or it's not more. It's more 90 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 3: than talk. You can't plan to move six hundred thousand 91 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 3: Palestinians and then the entire two point one million population 92 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 3: of Palestinians in Gaza into what former Israeli Prime Minister 93 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 3: Ihud Olmot has called a concentration camp, in which the 94 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 3: Israeli Defense Minister calls a humanitarian city. I know which 95 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 3: person I believe in terms of what that city will be. 96 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 3: It will be a concentration camp, a transit camp. 97 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 1: The huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty, the ones 98 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 1: one MA results Right, we're. 99 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 2: Back with Phil Golf and Thomas Thomas. Okay, so how 100 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 2: I know you don't want to make predictions, but can 101 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 2: you see this ending without the hostages being released? 102 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 4: First? Honestly, I don't see any way in which Israel 103 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 4: is giving up without those hostages either retrieved, alive or deceased. 104 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 4: Israel seem pretty well set on that approach and aren't 105 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 4: amenable to international I guess statements or criticisms. They have 106 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 4: clearly got a plan in mind, and I think part 107 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 4: of the challenge here is that they have entered into 108 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 4: an incredibly destructive war without a clear exit plan, because 109 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 4: if they're aiming for total retrieval of the hostages, that 110 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 4: doesn't seem like a goal that is achievable. And so 111 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:50,479 Speaker 4: for a war to be just you have to have 112 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 4: a clear metric for success. And so basically I'm very 113 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 4: pessimistic about what the prospects are for peace. 114 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 2: Phil Do you see any way that this ends without 115 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 2: the hostages first being released? 116 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 3: Well, I think the hostages can be released if they 117 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 3: still alive after the further bombardments that are still going 118 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 3: on in the Gaza Strip, most of the hostages. You know, 119 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 3: no way justifying Harmas and the other organizations taking hostages, 120 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 3: but most of the hostages will have been killed in 121 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 3: the Israeli stride. 122 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 2: Now I know, I know this, And look, let's accept 123 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 2: Hamas does not care about what happens with the Palestinian people, 124 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 2: and the Israeli government does not actually care about what 125 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 2: happens with the hostages, right, They're using them as means 126 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 2: to further their own ends. But can this thing end? 127 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 2: Like I feel like we're putting a lot of pressure 128 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 2: on Israel quite rightly for the crimes that they are committing, 129 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 2: which they are, but actually should the pressure be put 130 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 2: on Hammas because actually, until those hostages are released, this 131 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 2: does not stop. 132 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, releasing all the hostages is one of the 133 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:56,599 Speaker 3: conditions of a ceasefire, and that can happen. My question 134 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 3: really is whether the Natana who wants it to happen. 135 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 3: As soon as the war is over, there will be 136 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 3: a resumption of the criminal charges for corruption against Netan 137 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 3: Yahoo and that will be the end of his career 138 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 3: and it will be a fair held. 139 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 2: Which brings us to the next more miserable point, which 140 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 2: is that we can say all we like that this 141 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 2: needs to stop. It will not stop because neither of 142 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 2: these sides actually wanted to stop. Do that they want 143 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 2: this to continue. 144 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 3: There's an absence of leadership and it's long been a 145 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 3: problem in the Middle East on the side of the 146 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 3: Israelis and the Palestinians. In terms of finding a decent settlement, 147 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 3: you have to go back to Rabin, I think, to 148 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 3: find a leader of Israel that actually genuinely wanted to 149 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 3: find a long term and sustainable solution. But the tragedy 150 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,239 Speaker 3: has to stop. The question is where the twenty seven countries, 151 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 3: and good on them for signing the letter I totally 152 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 3: approve of the letter, but whether they can make a difference. 153 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 3: The Israelis have just come back and said, you don't 154 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 3: know the reality on the ground, actually the truth as 155 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 3: we do it. We watch it every night on TV 156 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 3: as another atrocity happens, more kids have killed and maimed, 157 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 3: more civilians die, Rubble has turned into even smaller pieces 158 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 3: of rubble. It's got to stop. But the United States 159 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 3: is the key to this, and Trump doesn't have an 160 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 3: interest in reigning in ans in Yahoo, and that's the problem. 161 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. Now, Thomas, listen at that pole that was 162 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 2: leaked today, the Talbot Mills pole. I think the thing 163 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 2: that was the most interesting out of it was when 164 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 2: New Zealand first supports it. 165 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 4: What do you think, Oh, I'm quite confident that Winston 166 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 4: can convince his supporters of just about anything. So Winston's 167 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 4: getting his numbers and his polling really well, you know, 168 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 4: as far as he's entered into a government, and minor 169 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:35,679 Speaker 4: parties often struggle there. 170 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 5: So Winston will get his votes and then he can 171 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 5: make his call. 172 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 4: You know, if he's got Stuart Nash as his wingman 173 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 4: at the next election, he might decide he wants to 174 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 4: go back with the Red team. 175 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:49,439 Speaker 5: But I think the coverage of the polling is really strange. 176 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 5: If we look at the politics has two blocks, a 177 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 5: left block and a right block. The right block was 178 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 5: doing its worst back in February. 179 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 4: They have gained relative to the block for the past 180 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 4: four or five months and the gap is now the 181 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 4: largest it's been if you look at a polling amorrhage. 182 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 4: Suddenly this poll comes out and the media has picked 183 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 4: up on the story as if we have this new 184 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 4: struggle even though the gap is widening, not shrinking. 185 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 3: Interesting point, what do you think, Phil, Yeah, well, look 186 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 3: with the New Zealand first voters the populist though you know, 187 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 3: New Zealand's first appeal is the populist one to their voters, 188 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 3: and the voters, the alienated voters that they appeal to, 189 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 3: don't like any government, whoever's in government. That's the truth 190 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 3: of it. Peters has got the ability to pull some 191 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 3: of his people on side. A lot of it will 192 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 3: hinge on the cost of living, and you know at 193 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,559 Speaker 3: the moment, well two things actually. One, I'm actually doing 194 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 3: the shopping now as a retired gentleman, and I can 195 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,559 Speaker 3: just see what the rise in the cost of living 196 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 3: has been Secondly, I actually know several people who have 197 00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 3: been made redundant. Now that's pretty unusual. Generally, you know 198 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 3: it's somebody else that you don't know that gets made redundant. 199 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 3: I've got a son that's in business as a trade 200 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 3: in the construction trade. I know that these are the 201 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 3: worst conditions that he's faced in more than a decade. 202 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,959 Speaker 3: If those things persist, then the government may be in trouble, 203 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 3: but it's premature to say that it is. 204 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, guys, it's good to talk to you. Have a 205 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 2: lovely evening. Phil Goff, former Everything you Know, and Thomas 206 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 2: Scrrimer of the Maximum Institute. 207 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,719 Speaker 1: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive. 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