1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,559 Speaker 1: Good afternoon. So there is confusion this afternoon over whether 2 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:05,000 Speaker 1: we have a cease fire between Israel and Iran or not. 3 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: Donald Trump made the claim earlier that both countries had agreed, 4 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:11,039 Speaker 1: but then Iran's foreign minister earlier said there was no agreement. 5 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Miller is a geopolitical relations expert from Victoria University 6 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: with US. 7 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 2: Now. Hey, Jeffrey, good evening here. 8 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:18,639 Speaker 1: So do we have one or not? 9 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 2: I think we do now at as of four o'clock 10 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 2: New Zealand time. It is all very very strange. I've 11 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 2: been following it all throughout the day and there have 12 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 2: been claims and counterclaims and you just can't work out 13 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: exactly what's going on. But apparently there's now according to 14 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: Donald Trump, you've got a twelve hour window so until 15 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 2: four am New Zealand time tomorrow, in which Israel will 16 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 2: be allowed to strike Iran, but Iran will not be 17 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 2: able to strike that and if that holds, then the 18 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 2: cease fire will a full cease file will be in 19 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: plus from four am tomorrow morning. It's all very strange. 20 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: Why would those be good then? 21 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 2: And hopefully hopefully we do have a cease fire now finally, 22 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 2: why why. 23 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: Would those be the terms that Israel can fire but 24 00:00:57,880 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: not the other way. 25 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,279 Speaker 2: Goodness no, it's goodness No. It's a very strange ceasefire. 26 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 2: And Israel still has not even officially announced or confirmed 27 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:08,400 Speaker 2: the ceasefires in place. It is very difficult to make 28 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 2: out what's going on. But look, let's take Donald Trump 29 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,119 Speaker 2: at his word and we can all watch and see 30 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 2: whether the ceasefire does hold. 31 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: Does this mean that Donald Trump's gamble in bombing those 32 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:19,839 Speaker 1: three sites has paid off? 33 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 2: I don't think so. Look, I think this has been 34 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 2: madness over the last two weeks. I think it's been 35 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 2: incredibly foolish. And what we've seen from both Israel and 36 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 2: the United States, I think none of this is conducive 37 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 2: to Israel's future security, safety, prosperity. And I say that 38 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 2: as a strong supporter of Israel's right to exist and 39 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,040 Speaker 2: right to prosper I just don't think you can get 40 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 2: here with a get there with the military solution. I 41 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 2: think this will only harden Around's desire to build a 42 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 2: nuclear weapon in the future. And if you think they're 43 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 2: really going to take this lying down and just give 44 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 2: up on their ambitions to have a nuclear weapon, I 45 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 2: think you've got another thing coming. You know, they've had 46 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 2: dozens of nuclear scientists now killed, They've had the top 47 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 2: military commands taken out, the top military leadership taken out, 48 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 2: hundreds of ordinary civilians apparently been killed, and many others 49 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 2: in Iran. So look, I don't know why you think 50 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 2: that this is going to make Israel sorry of make 51 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 2: Iran more amenable to Israel or the United States. It's crazy. 52 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 1: What was the alternative? 53 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 2: The alternative was to continue with the negotiations. Look, Donald 54 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,119 Speaker 2: Trump started the negotiations himself, with Steve Whitcoff leading five 55 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 2: rounds of negotiations. There had been in Muscat. Was went 56 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 2: best six round and then Israel came over the top 57 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 2: and bombed I ran. Then last week on Friday, the 58 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,919 Speaker 2: Iranian foreign minister was there with the European foreign ministers 59 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 2: in Geneva, and then the US came over the top 60 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 2: and bombed Iran. And it was all just a great one, 61 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 2: the great deception, the idea that Donald Trump was taking 62 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 2: two weeks, it was none of that. Behind the scenes, 63 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 2: he was scheming with Beniminettino who to join the war. 64 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: Jeffrey, I mean, we can all see that one side 65 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: has behaved, you know, in an unbecoming fashion here. But 66 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: you would if Iran had agreed to something, would you 67 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: really have believed them? 68 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 2: Well, I'll put it to you, why would Iran believe 69 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 2: anything that the US says? Now? After how the US is. 70 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: I'm simply asking the question because it seems to me 71 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: that it doesn't matter which path you pick, they end 72 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: up with a nuke. 73 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 2: Look, let's stop the madness. Look we saw what happened 74 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 2: today with Iran striking cuta one of the Golf States. 75 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 2: It's just never happened before. We haven't had one of 76 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 2: the Golf States targeted quite in this way by Iran, 77 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 2: and it's unprecedented. And these are countries, by the way, 78 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 2: the Golf States that New Zeven gets on very well with. 79 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 2: They're our friends in many ways. And Christopher Luxon was 80 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 2: up there in the United Arab Emirates in January we 81 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 2: signed two trade deals with the Golf States. As I say, 82 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 2: this is all maddeners here, and we absolutely need to 83 00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 2: get back to peace and get back to dialogue de escalation. 84 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: And I think New Zealand really can play a small 85 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 2: but important part in that, just given the connections that 86 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 2: New Zealand has into the Gulf region and that we 87 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 2: shouldn't forget the Katari Prime Minister Shank Muhammad al Thani. 88 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 2: He played a key role in brokering this ceasefire. Apparently 89 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 2: he was in Wellington last August visiting in New Zealand, 90 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 2: so Christopher Luxon has probably got his phone number in 91 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 2: his phone he should use that. 92 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: Hey, I really appreciate your expertise, Jeffrey, thanks so much, 93 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Miller, geopolitical relations expert. For more from Hither Duplessy 94 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: Allen Drive, listen live to news talks it'd be from 95 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.