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Speaker 1: Back to the German election they've been voting. Although it's

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Speaker 1: a cliche, it feels like one of the most consequential

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Speaker 1: elections in a very long time. Odds on favorite to

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Speaker 1: try and be chancellor, as Frederic Mertz of the Christian

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Speaker 1: Democrat Union CDU. Anyway, Torsten Benna is co founder and

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Speaker 1: director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin and

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Speaker 1: as well us very good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Wonderful good morning Mike.

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Speaker 1: So the numbers come out the way everyone I assume

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Speaker 1: I'm correct and saying this is the way most people

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Speaker 1: thought they were going to How do they form a

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Speaker 1: government and who do they form it with?

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Speaker 2: That's the big open question.

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Speaker 3: Indeed, no huge surprises in the results so far, except

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Speaker 3: for a mini surge of the Left Party that very

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Speaker 3: few expected that way.

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Speaker 2: But the big question now is it's too early.

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Speaker 3: It's too early to call, and took close to call

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Speaker 3: whether two of the smaller parties make the five percent threshold.

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Speaker 3: If they indeed pass the five percent threshold, that means

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Speaker 3: that we need three governor of three parties to form

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Speaker 3: a collision that will be protracted. Will take quite a

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Speaker 3: long time. If they don't make it, then I think

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Speaker 3: the odds are that Fred Dechmertz the chancellor, the new

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Speaker 3: chancellor can govern with the outgoing Social Democrats.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so let's just work through a couple of the

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Speaker 1: issues for people who don't necessarily follow the CDUCSU twenty

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Speaker 1: nine percent, they're in the box seat. The parties you

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Speaker 1: refer to, I think are the BSW and the FDP

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Speaker 1: four point seven exactly your four point seven and four

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Speaker 1: point nine percent. Who are they and what sort of

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Speaker 1: policies do they offer and how closely aligned to the

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Speaker 1: cduc SU are they.

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Speaker 3: The FDP is a liberal pro business party and BSW

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Speaker 3: is a new party that hasn't been It's a party

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Speaker 3: formed by a former Left Party member who pursue some

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Speaker 3: sort of pro Kremlin, anti walk but kind of pro

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Speaker 3: social welfare issues agenda.

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Speaker 1: Wow, that sounds confusing SPD and Schultz does he is? He?

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Speaker 3: Well, national social has been a tradition in Germany, kind

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Speaker 3: of marrying the two.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, Yeah, so the SPD. Is Shultz happy to

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Speaker 1: go from being chancellor to the third wheel.

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Speaker 2: No, No, it's clear that Charts is out.

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Speaker 3: He said, like he will not join a new government.

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Speaker 2: It's not like in new Zealand.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes you know, the foreign ministers, the former prime minister, whatever,

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Speaker 3: like those things don't happen. Usually in Germany he's into

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Speaker 3: retirement and then it's a new cast of leaders. Maybe

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Speaker 3: for the Social Democrats. Their result is disastrous, they lost

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Speaker 3: about ten percent, so there might well be a leadership

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Speaker 3: upheaval also in the party. Beyond charts, you know, saying

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Speaker 3: that he will not join a new government.

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Speaker 1: But at twenty nine percent, I'm just doing the rough

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Speaker 1: math here. The CDUC is here at twenty nine percent,

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Speaker 1: even if they go with the SPD sixteen, there's still

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Speaker 1: not fifty. Is that a minority government.

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Speaker 2: No, it's not a minority government.

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Speaker 1: It's the two other Are you talking about a five

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Speaker 1: party four party.

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Speaker 2: Exactly?

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Speaker 3: So if if they don't, if they don't make it

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Speaker 3: into parliament, but that's they will not govern with the CDU,

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Speaker 3: then these two small parties the government will then be

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Speaker 3: most likely either CDU Social Democrats Green or CDU Social

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Speaker 3: Democrats and this liberal party bs W will not.

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Speaker 2: Be in government. But anyway, we're talking a lot about

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Speaker 2: the options.

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Speaker 3: But I think it's it's really important that new government

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Speaker 3: has its work cut out for it. We need to

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Speaker 3: invest massively into security spending with Donald Trump pulling the

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Speaker 3: rug from under our feet and put in advancing on us.

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Speaker 1: But isn't that the point? Isn't that the point? If

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Speaker 1: you've got some sort of jury manned three or four

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Speaker 1: party coalition, can they agree on anything sustintive, like you know,

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Speaker 1: the issues you've just right, it will.

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Speaker 2: Be, as you know, will be very tough.

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Speaker 3: And and and the past government felt because it couldn't

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Speaker 3: agree on a solid fiscal base to kind of agree

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Speaker 3: on spending goals. It won't be easy for a three

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Speaker 3: party coalition. For a two party coalition, I think it

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Speaker 3: might well be in the cards.

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Speaker 2: That it's somewhat easier.

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Speaker 1: Can we definitely one hundred percent hand on hard rule

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Speaker 1: out a deal with the ifd.

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Speaker 3: Well, I can't, you know, I would say ninety nine

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Speaker 3: point nine percent or one hundred percent, because.

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Speaker 2: That will you know, if him does that.

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Speaker 3: For the Christian Democrats, he'll instantly split his party, I think,

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Speaker 3: because there's many in the Christian Democratic Union that would

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Speaker 3: object to such a move, and they would you know,

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Speaker 3: that would achieve the very goal of this extreme right

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Speaker 3: wing AfD party. They want to split the Christian Democratic

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Speaker 3: Union as a party.

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Speaker 1: What about the alternative though? If the AfD, what was

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Speaker 1: as a voter? Why would I have voted for the AfD?

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Speaker 1: Got my nineteen and a half twenty percent? Know that

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Speaker 1: I don't get into government, and what's preventing me from going?

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Speaker 1: You know what, as much as I might like them,

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Speaker 1: they're not going anywhere, and no one wants to deal

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Speaker 1: with them. I'll wander off and vote for somebody else.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's a protest board, right, it's not unheard of.

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Speaker 3: And you send a message that you don't like the

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Speaker 3: migration policy that Europe and Germany is pursuing, You're angry

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Speaker 3: at the massive inflation that has hurt your pocket book,

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Speaker 3: and you don't like the pro Ukraine policy that the

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Speaker 3: government and the mainstream parties have pursued. And if you

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Speaker 3: say stop and I'm angry with you, then it's a

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Speaker 3: you know, it's a nice way to you know, show

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Speaker 3: the middle finger to the establishment.

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Speaker 2: It's not a new phenomenon.

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Speaker 1: What, Torsten, how's the campaign gone? What's the vibe in Germany?

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Speaker 1: It seems like a really troubled time in the world

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Speaker 1: at the moment. Is that what you're getting?

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Speaker 2: Yes?

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Speaker 3: But the campaign was totally disconnected from the seriousness of

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Speaker 3: the kind of security situation in the economic situation that

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Speaker 3: Germany is facing. Germany's we didn't discuss China at all

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Speaker 3: in the campaign, which I find personally quite ludicrous, given

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Speaker 3: that our core industries is expected to suffer from a

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Speaker 3: China shock, China eating our lunch in terms of our

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Speaker 3: core industry, in terms of unfair competition, and of course

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump is wreaking havoc, the biggest crisis of the

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Speaker 3: Alliance in eight decades, and we have no clue how

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Speaker 3: we are going to deal with it and provide for

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Speaker 3: our own security and fend off this trade war that

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Speaker 3: Trump is starting. So but we didn't really discuss this

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Speaker 3: during the campaign. We kind of indulged in a bit

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Speaker 3: of a nostalgic self referential campaign.

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Speaker 2: But hey, here we are.

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Speaker 3: We now need to form a government and Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: is certainly not waiting for us.

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Speaker 1: I like your style, mate, We'll get you on again.

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Speaker 1: Torston Benner, who's the co founder and director of the

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Speaker 1: Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin's For more from the

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Speaker 1: Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news Talks at b

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Speaker 1: from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio,