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Speaker 1: So we've got a fifth round of talks with India

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Speaker 1: on a free trade deal. We've got a senior government

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Speaker 1: minister in town. He's brought forty two of his mates over.

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Speaker 1: This is a good sign of good progress. But dairy farmers,

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Speaker 1: if you're hoping for a pot of gold at the

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Speaker 1: end of this rainbow, I don't think it's going to happen. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: McLay and Luxon promised a deal by the election. Sounds

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Speaker 1: like they're on track to achieve that. But it's a

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Speaker 1: deal worth the paper it's written on if it doesn't

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Speaker 1: unlocked tower free access for milk powder. It's our major

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Speaker 1: commodity we sell to the rest of the world. One

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Speaker 1: of the reasons Fonterra is the cat that got the

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Speaker 1: cream right now. We all know this, but in their haste,

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Speaker 1: their eagerness, these ministers are going for quick and dirty

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Speaker 1: over comprehensive and all encompassing, which begs the question would

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Speaker 1: a deal look good for the government without dairy in

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Speaker 1: it or would you look a bit dumb because you

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Speaker 1: rushed it. You're rushed in to buy something, you know,

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Speaker 1: buy a car without actually having an engine in it

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Speaker 1: and checking first. Here's what I don't think it will

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Speaker 1: include dairy. India is the world's largest consumer of derry.

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Speaker 1: Did you know that it meets its own demand domestically,

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Speaker 1: albeit with much higher emissions. They wouldn't like that At

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Speaker 1: copp and Brazil. They don't want to be import derry.

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Speaker 1: It's have made that very clear time and again. They

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Speaker 1: have ambitions to be a major dairy exporter of their

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Speaker 1: own in the future. The Brits got a deal disappointed

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Speaker 1: farmers there because why it excluded dairy? You fed farmers

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Speaker 1: Scotland put out a press release at the time saying,

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Speaker 1: you know it was a sour deal. They're upset about it.

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Speaker 1: You can probably expect the same reaction here when a

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Speaker 1: deal is done without our big money spin it included.

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Speaker 1: Even our treasury says dairy probably ain't gonna happen. I

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Speaker 1: asked Myles Hurl about this a few months ago. He

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Speaker 1: was realistic, basically said, don't think we'll get it across

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Speaker 1: the line. If we do, it'll be invaluable. Of course,

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Speaker 1: it would growth and global dairy consumption expected to be

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Speaker 1: largely driven out of India and Pakistan. To miss this

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Speaker 1: boat would be disappointing. They could include some nothing clause

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Speaker 1: about wanting to open it up in the future, but

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Speaker 1: there'd be no guarantee of that. And we have learned

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Speaker 1: this lesson from the Brits who've just been through this process,

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Speaker 1: which doesn't make this a deal not worth signing, don't

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Speaker 1: get me wrong, but the speed at which it's being

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Speaker 1: done could actually hurt Luxon's self described business negotiation skills

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Speaker 1: if expectations aren't properly managed. For more from Early edition

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Speaker 1: with Ryan Bridge, listen live to News Talk Set B

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Speaker 1: from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.