WEBVTT - How potential Lotto changes could affect your chances of winning

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<v Speaker 1>Hilda.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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<v Speaker 2>daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Your chance

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<v Speaker 2>of winning powerball is one in thirty eight million.

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<v Speaker 1>And it could be about to get a lot harder.

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<v Speaker 2>The Herald has revealed Lotto and z bosses are keen

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<v Speaker 2>to increase the number of balls in the powerball draw

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<v Speaker 2>and are already seeking permission from the government for what

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<v Speaker 2>has been described as a matrix change for the game.

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<v Speaker 2>But how will this affect your odds and why do

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<v Speaker 2>they want to change the game anyway? Today on the

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<v Speaker 2>front Page ends at Herald's senior reporter, Neil Readers here

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<v Speaker 2>to crunch the numbers and tell us more about these

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<v Speaker 2>potential changes on the way. So, Neil, how does the

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<v Speaker 2>Lotto matrix currently work?

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<v Speaker 3>At the moment?

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<v Speaker 4>To win Powerball, you've got to have six first division

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<v Speaker 4>numbers and then get the powerball. And at the moment

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<v Speaker 4>there's ten balls and powerball number one through ten, and

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<v Speaker 4>the odds of winning Lotto Powerball currently are one and

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<v Speaker 4>thirty eight million, But potentially by twenty twenty nine that

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<v Speaker 4>could be quite harder.

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<v Speaker 2>So that old adage of you're more likely to die

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<v Speaker 2>in a plane crash than win lotto.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that still the deal?

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<v Speaker 3>I think definitely.

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<v Speaker 4>Our numbers guru Chris Knox ran some potential Lotto powerball

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<v Speaker 4>changes through his matrix machine. Last time there was a

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<v Speaker 4>powerball change was in two thousand and seven, so I

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<v Speaker 4>went to ten balls. So currently it's one in thirty

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<v Speaker 4>eight million with six first division numbers in the power ball.

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<v Speaker 4>Shouldlow added an additional powerball number, the odds would decrease

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<v Speaker 4>to one and forty two point two million on previous

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<v Speaker 4>track records, where the previously other two numbers. If they

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<v Speaker 4>added twelve numbers to the powerball, kissy, your odds would

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<v Speaker 4>it would decrease even further to one and forty six million.

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<v Speaker 4>And if the Loto en Ze bosses went all the

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<v Speaker 4>way out and added five extra numbers to the powerball, kidd,

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<v Speaker 4>you'll be looking at one in fifty seven point five million.

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, way more likely to die on a plane

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<v Speaker 3>creation than win lotto.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So tell me about these proposed changes. What's the

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<v Speaker 1>thinking behind it?

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<v Speaker 4>Around the world, it's no sort of shortage of changes

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<v Speaker 4>to different lotto games or powerball games. In particular, Australia

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<v Speaker 4>changed their Powerball matrix in twenty eighteen in America's Mega Millions,

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<v Speaker 4>which has got a record payout of two point five billion,

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<v Speaker 4>which is a bit bigger than our Lotto Powerball's fifty

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<v Speaker 4>million record. They changed their matrix simply waiting a price

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<v Speaker 4>change earlier this year to make the tickets more expensive.

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<v Speaker 4>Games are always looking to evolve. I think in New

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<v Speaker 4>Zealand there's obviously added competition of sports betting now more

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<v Speaker 4>horse betting options. Lotto end zet are very keen to

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<v Speaker 4>make sure that they don't reduce the financial returns to

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<v Speaker 4>the community, but via the Lotteries Trust at the moment,

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<v Speaker 4>that's four hundred and thirty four million that they pump

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<v Speaker 4>back into the community. So they're trying to safeguard well,

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<v Speaker 4>they're trying to say, they're trying to safeguard both the

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<v Speaker 4>game's financial future and also the returns to the community

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<v Speaker 4>by making Blotto Powerball even more attractive.

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<v Speaker 3>For the future.

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<v Speaker 2>What are the risks here with changing it? I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>problem gambling is a bit of an issue at the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>It always has been. Could this be a problem?

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<v Speaker 4>Problem gaming foundation they do, I mean, they've made no

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<v Speaker 4>secret in the past about people being hopped on lotto.

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<v Speaker 4>Their research, The Problem Gambling Foundation's research shows about twelve

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<v Speaker 4>percent of their client owl who have received gambling harm

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<v Speaker 4>treatment services, lotto was their primary mode of gambling. Just

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<v Speaker 4>for context that that compares with fifty percent of listed

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<v Speaker 4>playing the pokeys in nine percent said they're impacted by

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<v Speaker 4>gambling on sports or horse racing with the TB. But

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, definitely if these changes do have been which

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<v Speaker 4>will mean more bigger jackpots such as the fifty million

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<v Speaker 4>must be one, I mean, I think the Problem Gaming

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<v Speaker 4>Foundation will be quite concerned about that. You know, a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of people will be keen to buy tickets for

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<v Speaker 4>the big draws.

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<v Speaker 5>In terms of those that play all the time, there's

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<v Speaker 5>what we call a near miss phenomenon, which is maybe

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<v Speaker 5>I got three numbers last week or four the week before,

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<v Speaker 5>and therefore, in my brain, I think that increases my

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<v Speaker 5>odds of winning the big time, which we all know

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<v Speaker 5>every time you play you back at square one.

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<v Speaker 4>It seems while we're playing lotto, our brain's playing games

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<v Speaker 4>with us.

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<v Speaker 5>If I can remember other people winning the lotto, which

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<v Speaker 5>we see all over the news, actually makes my brain

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<v Speaker 5>I think that I've got higher chance or higher of.

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<v Speaker 2>So there are already some rules around how the game

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<v Speaker 2>is played. Hey at the like how much the jackpot

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<v Speaker 2>can actually get up to? How much does it cap

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<v Speaker 2>off at now? And if they were to add more numbers, say,

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<v Speaker 2>have they talked about how much we could possibly win?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>At present, the maximum that loto can get to before

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<v Speaker 4>it has to be struck as fifty million, so sort

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<v Speaker 4>of jackpots every week that it's not drawn, And the

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<v Speaker 4>mount that a jackpots kind of depends on how many

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<v Speaker 4>tickets they sell for the previous draw. So last week

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<v Speaker 4>you obviously rows to thirty million dollars that was split

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<v Speaker 4>by between two lucky winners. I think that week lotoside

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<v Speaker 4>about one point five million tickets, which is quite a

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<v Speaker 4>big upturn on what they'd sell for say a four

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<v Speaker 4>or a ten million dollar draw. For the figure to

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<v Speaker 4>be the maximum payout limit to lift that would take

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<v Speaker 4>approvabley internal affairs in the government.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot of New Zealand aren't trying to seek that

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<v Speaker 3>at the moment.

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<v Speaker 4>What they are trying to work through is if they

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<v Speaker 4>can increase the numbers and the power ball to change

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<v Speaker 4>the matrix. But I mean, I think if you look

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<v Speaker 4>at our powerball lot, it's fifty million. In America, you

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<v Speaker 4>can win billions and their powerball. Australia's got a record

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<v Speaker 4>powerball payout of one hundred and sixty two million, so

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<v Speaker 4>we're still still kind of small frin terms of payouts.

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<v Speaker 1>Really, what's the most someone's won in New Zealand?

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<v Speaker 4>The record PAOUD is just over forty four million, which

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<v Speaker 4>is pretty mouth watering and could change your life in

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<v Speaker 4>so many ways. There have been two previous fifty million

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<v Speaker 4>dollar jaws which have been shared by multiple winners. Twenty

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<v Speaker 4>twenty four there were seven players that shared that fifty

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<v Speaker 4>million prize for when they got just over seven million

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<v Speaker 4>dollars each, which I wouldn't.

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<v Speaker 3>Say no to seven million. I don't know if you

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<v Speaker 3>would either. Chelsea.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you've spoken about some of the global lotto trends

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<v Speaker 2>and how they compare to New Zealand. Is there any

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<v Speaker 2>reason why, say, America goes into the billions, Australia goes

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<v Speaker 2>over one hundred million, and why do we cap it?

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<v Speaker 3>The big reason is population.

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<v Speaker 4>We've got sort of a fifth of quarter of the

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<v Speaker 4>population of Australia, so when you sort of maybe leverage

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<v Speaker 4>it out that way, our payments. Probably maximum payment proportionally

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<v Speaker 4>is fairly even with Australia.

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<v Speaker 3>America or America is a whole different beast all together.

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<v Speaker 4>Obviously a huge country which has got multiple gambling options.

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<v Speaker 4>Probably that American dream that everyone wants to get rich there.

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<v Speaker 4>The A Lotto games are huge over the air, and

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<v Speaker 4>it's not just the mega millions. For New Zealand, the

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<v Speaker 4>fifteen million limit. Part of that is to do with

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<v Speaker 4>problem gambling. I think if it would be pretty hard argument,

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<v Speaker 4>I think for a lot of New Zealand to put

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<v Speaker 4>forward and I don't know even if they want to

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<v Speaker 4>put it forward to increase that level. I think if

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<v Speaker 4>they did, they're probably be quite a bit of blowback

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<v Speaker 4>from Problem Gambling Foundation and other community organizations about the

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<v Speaker 4>potential risks that could could pose with gambling traits.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that makes sense because I saw that the forty

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<v Speaker 2>four million dollar one that was in twenty sixteen in

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<v Speaker 2>November that was actually the greatest number of tickets sold

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<v Speaker 2>for a draw was that draw. And I suppose as

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<v Speaker 2>soon as it gets up to fifty everyone, even even

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<v Speaker 2>people who don't usually buy a Lotto tickets want to

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<v Speaker 2>get involved.

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<v Speaker 4>Hey, absolutely, family's going away on holidays, always want to

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<v Speaker 4>buy a ticket for those big draws when they're in

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<v Speaker 4>a different place.

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<v Speaker 3>For luck.

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<v Speaker 4>Last weekend when Lotto had thirty million, it's the first

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<v Speaker 4>time for a while that has actually been sort of

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<v Speaker 4>if you drive past lot of outlets, and I did,

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<v Speaker 4>there were lines and queues outside some of the lotto

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<v Speaker 4>sellers at supermarkets and different places around town.

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<v Speaker 3>When it really does drive a bus.

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<v Speaker 4>I remember sort of the other those two weekends when

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<v Speaker 4>there were fifty million dollar draws.

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<v Speaker 3>It was massive.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, they'd be driving past a stationary store or

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<v Speaker 4>bookshop or a supermarket and gave sort of lines of

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<v Speaker 4>ten twenty people longer waiting to get a ticket to

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<v Speaker 4>potentially change their life.

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<v Speaker 6>Wouldn't I have got the money I put all the

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<v Speaker 6>tune deposits, which was suggested by the Lotto commission. Then

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<v Speaker 6>I started getting all these friends coming in and people

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<v Speaker 6>and people are asking me, and these new people I

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<v Speaker 6>didn't even know, and hey, can I have, can I have?

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<v Speaker 1>Can I borrow?

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<v Speaker 6>Can I learn? And I was doing I was giving them,

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<v Speaker 6>I was answering them, and all of a sudden, have

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<v Speaker 6>got too much. I'm not seeing the results of what

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<v Speaker 6>they wanted the money for and things like that. So

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<v Speaker 6>that sort of turned me upside down of it. I

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<v Speaker 6>sort of had to stop doing that, and I felt

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<v Speaker 6>quite distinct stopping that.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course we've heard some horror stories, but also

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<v Speaker 2>some real success stories from winners.

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<v Speaker 1>It really depends what kind of road you go down.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, I mean, you hear stories and I'm thinking of

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<v Speaker 2>one in the UK, I think where somebody won lotto

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<v Speaker 2>and just completely wasted all their money. I mean it's heartbreaking.

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<v Speaker 2>And you see those kinds of things in the news A.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, I think the things you imagine.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, if I won touch Wood forty million dollars,

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<v Speaker 4>it would change my life. And most people just aren't

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<v Speaker 4>prepared for that overnight sensation of, you know, never having

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<v Speaker 4>to work again. Really, you know, some people there's been

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<v Speaker 4>winners in New Zealand that have taught previously confidentially about

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<v Speaker 4>it that people came out of the woodwork that you

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<v Speaker 4>didn't really know before. They want money, you're not used

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<v Speaker 4>to budgeting for what to do with it. I think

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of news doing a lot more proactive now

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<v Speaker 4>than maybe what they were earlier on. I know it's

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<v Speaker 4>the big winners they're given opportunities for counseling, for financial literacy,

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<v Speaker 4>the Office of Financial Coaching. You know what potentially what

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<v Speaker 4>to do with their money in terms of what your

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<v Speaker 4>ISSUA could invest in. But you think, sort of if

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<v Speaker 4>your bank account went from Jesus one hundred and fifty

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<v Speaker 4>bucks in your bank account on a Saturday morning to

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<v Speaker 4>potentially thirty million dollars when your bank your winning ticket

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<v Speaker 4>and it's it's a hell of a life style change.

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<v Speaker 4>It'd be pretty hard not to go on a bit

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<v Speaker 4>of a slurge. I know, I'd probably buy a couple

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<v Speaker 4>of nice cars and go on holiday and waste the rest.

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<v Speaker 1>Of it and give me a couple of meal, wouldn't you?

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely? Chelsea?

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<v Speaker 2>How do you think that these changes might go down

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<v Speaker 2>with the general public? Noil, I think we all know

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<v Speaker 2>that people are obsessed with lotto at the moment. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you think a bigger jackpop could outweigh a harder chance

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<v Speaker 2>of winning.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, there's a.

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<v Speaker 4>Real cruck sort of if these number change the matrix

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<v Speaker 4>change goes ahead, Loto were very happen with me when

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<v Speaker 4>I talk to them that a matrix change of me

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<v Speaker 4>at a be tougher to win lotto when it's like

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<v Speaker 4>a four million dollar draw, six million dollar draw, et cetera,

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<v Speaker 4>et cetera.

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<v Speaker 3>But the flip side is that there are going to

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<v Speaker 3>be bigger, more regular, bigger jackpots.

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<v Speaker 4>So and the last almost decad there's only been two

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<v Speaker 4>fifty million dollar draws. You could have a fifty million

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<v Speaker 4>dollar drawer every year, potentially every couple of years, which

0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:56.360
<v Speaker 4>is what Lotto would love to have. I think that

0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:59.000
<v Speaker 4>the punters would definitely like it. I think the dream

0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:02.160
<v Speaker 4>of getting rich from Lotto. People probably stick with Lotto

0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:04.360
<v Speaker 4>if they think that he you know, is a chance

0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.640
<v Speaker 4>we could win, they get even though it's probably least

0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:09.040
<v Speaker 4>likely we're going to win the big prize every week

0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:12.040
<v Speaker 4>or for for six million dollars every weekend of course

0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:14.760
<v Speaker 4>is that they're going to change Powerball, so things with

0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:18.640
<v Speaker 4>like fierce Division or strike for those other options won't

0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:19.160
<v Speaker 4>be changing.

0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:20.600
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for joining us, Neil.

0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:28.079
<v Speaker 2>Lotto and Z's chief innovation and product Officer Ben Coney

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:31.160
<v Speaker 2>said the ideas about evolving the game so that it

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:34.760
<v Speaker 2>can remain compelling to players. The prize value is not

0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:38.079
<v Speaker 2>eroded through inflation, and the odds of winning move in

0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:39.760
<v Speaker 2>line with population growth.

0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:42.920
<v Speaker 1>He said, Our enduring interest is.

0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:46.800
<v Speaker 2>In having a powerball game that is appealing to our customers,

0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:51.240
<v Speaker 2>generates consistent profit for distribution to the community, and allows

0:12:51.360 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 2>for responsible growth over time. The details of exactly what

0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.680
<v Speaker 2>they'll change and what it would mean for customers is

0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:03.240
<v Speaker 2>still to be confirmed, as they are subject to regulatory

0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:11.000
<v Speaker 2>consultation and ministerial approval. That's it for this episode of

0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:14.520
<v Speaker 2>The Front Page. You can read more about today's stories

0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:18.840
<v Speaker 2>and extensive news coverage at enzedherld dot co dot nz.

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:23.400
<v Speaker 2>The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin,

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:25.520
<v Speaker 2>who is also our sound engineer.

0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:27.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm Chelsea Daniels.

0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:31.240
<v Speaker 2>Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you

0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:35.080
<v Speaker 2>get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look

0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:36.400
<v Speaker 2>behind the headlines.