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Speaker 1: So to epic fury where things continue to unfold in

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Speaker 1: the fast and possibly haphazard way. Claims this morning, the

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Speaker 1: Iranian presidents asked for a ceasefire, but the Americans want

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Speaker 1: the straight open first. Claims this has a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks to run and they can quote see the finish line.

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Speaker 1: Claims that NATO's a paper tiger, and increasingly America looks

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Speaker 1: like it out. It's out and tonight, of course, the

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Speaker 1: President addresses the will now. Malcolm Ntz is an intelligence

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Speaker 1: foreign policy analyst, former USNavy senior chief and hews, Well,

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Speaker 1: there's Malcolm. Morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, How are you very well?

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Speaker 1: From your point of view, how solid and specific has

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Speaker 1: this American plan in Iran been?

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, I have a great history with this,

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Speaker 2: almost forty years in the region and fought the Iranians

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Speaker 2: indirect naval combat in the nineteen eighties. I've been through

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Speaker 2: this before, and it appears that whatever we've learned over

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Speaker 2: the last forty years, someone throughout the window when they've

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Speaker 2: planned this operation. It's almost as if they didn't care

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Speaker 2: that the straight up homes was closed. They didn't take

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Speaker 2: into consideration around strength is actually asymmetric small boats, missiles,

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Speaker 2: cruise missiles, terrorism, they and ballistic missiles. They are strictly

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Speaker 2: attacking conventional military materials. That does not inhibit Iran's ability

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Speaker 2: to impact its neighbors in the Gulf.

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Speaker 1: No, so explain to me, because two of the most

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Speaker 1: surprising things from my observation. One, they didn't think that

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Speaker 1: Gulf states would be attacked too. They didn't think the

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Speaker 1: strike would be in play.

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Speaker 3: How's that possible, between you, me and a fence post.

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Speaker 3: This is impossible, literally impossible. I'm sixty four years old now,

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Speaker 3: forty years ago. We planned for all of this even

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Speaker 3: when Iran had just a basic ballistic missile capability. I mean,

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Speaker 3: there was a war between Iran and Iraq where they

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Speaker 3: literally bombarded each other's capital city with ballistic missiles. We

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Speaker 3: always knew this was a component of it, and even

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Speaker 3: we had experienced in the Iran Iraq war I'm sorry,

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Speaker 3: in Desert Storm, where the first thing Iraq did was

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Speaker 3: bumped at all of the nations that were involved in it.

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Speaker 2: Of course Iran was going to use this. This White

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Speaker 2: House really does not appear to care about history. It

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Speaker 2: does not listen to its intelligence personnel. You notice we've

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Speaker 2: never heard from Dulca Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence.

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Speaker 2: We just hear from Pete Exeth, who doesn't appear to

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Speaker 2: have any skill or purpose as Secretary of Defense.

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Speaker 1: What's your Saints of the soufternoon, all the savening your time?

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Speaker 1: And that speech? Is it more about NATO? And if

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Speaker 1: it is, is the ounce or is it more about

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Speaker 1: a name to the war? And bicicly he's going to

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Speaker 1: buy it.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's not going to be about NATO. This is

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Speaker 2: obviously about the war. But the question is there's only

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Speaker 2: two things on the table. What we in the States

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Speaker 2: call taco, which is Trump always chickens out, or tactics,

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Speaker 2: which means he's going to escalate this by announcing some

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Speaker 2: sort of campaign. There's been a lot of speculation that

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Speaker 2: the United States is winding down, but this is where

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Speaker 2: people start doing desperate hail Mary's, like saying they're going

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Speaker 2: to seize this or they're going to clear open the

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Speaker 2: straight orform mood. I have fought in the Strait of Hormones,

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Speaker 2: I have been in direct naval combat, been around minds,

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Speaker 2: struck a mind. At one point, you cannot just say

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Speaker 2: it's open. It's the insurance companies that open the Strait

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Speaker 2: of Hormas when free passage of the average one hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty eight ships can start going through back and

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Speaker 2: forth unmolested. You cannot do that with warfare, because with

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Speaker 2: warfare it's always risk.

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Speaker 1: Could he lead. Could the announcement today be wear out,

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Speaker 1: He gives a diet, wear out and the strike somebody

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Speaker 1: else's problem. We're done.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he could say that. That would be considered a

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Speaker 2: loss for him. It would be essentially, you know, he

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Speaker 2: would have to redefine the terms. Like he's saying that

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Speaker 2: there's a new Iranian regime. They're talking to us. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's your problem. We don't get oil from there. Every

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Speaker 2: resource in the world comes from there, directly or indirectly.

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Speaker 2: Twenty percent generic drugs that all those chemicals go to India.

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Speaker 2: India produces all the generic for most of the world,

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Speaker 2: helium for advanced technologies and for MRI machines urea for

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Speaker 2: farmers that you know all over Asia and Africa may

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Speaker 2: go into famine if this isn't open. Donald Trump doesn't

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Speaker 2: particularly care about that, but if he does leave, it'll

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Speaker 2: be very interesting. There's also one other possibility he may

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Speaker 2: do a small military operations with the United Arab Emirates

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Speaker 2: to seize three islands that the Shavran took in nineteen

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Speaker 2: seventy one, and try to force the straight open for

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Speaker 2: twenty four hours. Who knows at this point.

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Speaker 1: Malcolm. Good to have you on, Probably I appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: Malcolm Nant's intelligent foreign policy analysts form a US Navy

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Speaker 1: senior chief. We'll get him.

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Speaker 2: Back for more from the Mic Hosking Breakfast. Listen live

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Speaker 2: to news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or

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Speaker 2: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio