1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,640 Speaker 1: So if you're listening Monday, we were talking to the 2 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Prime Minister about New Zealand aren't growing Australia. If current 3 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: forecasts are correct, if we're on track for two point 4 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: simpercinc growth, we're outgrowing Australia. 5 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:10,479 Speaker 2: Yep. 6 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:13,159 Speaker 1: That seemed to come as some sort of surprise to 7 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: the Prime Minister. But we can back it up this 8 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: morning with a new report from Westpac confirms over the 9 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: next several years, in fact, we should have a divergence. 10 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: So if we outplace Australia on growth, does the brain 11 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 1: drain reverse? In good times? Role in Stephen Joyce, former 12 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: Finance Minister of Courses with a Stephen Morning to you money, 13 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: Mike con do you well? Thank you? 14 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 2: Do you believe it generally? Yes? I do. I've had 15 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 2: a look at the report and look at the graphs. Actually, 16 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,239 Speaker 2: it's a really cool report because it basically puts the 17 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: two countries alongside each other in a whole range of areas, 18 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 2: and it tells the story of basically the whole COVID 19 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 2: period and after that, and I think to summarize it roughly, 20 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 2: we had worse settings during and after the COVID thing 21 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 2: from an economic perspective, and we're getting more sensible pop 22 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: settings now. The Australians had a slightly better set of 23 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 2: settings during the COVID period. They weren't as they weren't 24 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 2: as proplygate on the fiscal side. They didn't they didn't 25 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 2: sort of have those huge quick swings in interest rate 26 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 2: policy that we had, and then they did. They were 27 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 2: doing worse since because I've now opened up the fiscal 28 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 2: floodgates and the net effect of all that is that 29 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 2: will come out of it now quicker than them, but 30 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 2: we're further behind. 31 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: Will we see it and feel it and break out funk? 32 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 2: I think we will. That's my read of it. I've 33 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 2: been early to the downturn. When people have asked me 34 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 2: going through all the COVID period, I was sort of 35 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 2: the negative nelly and probably on one of the first 36 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 2: positive people coming out the other side. In the sense 37 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 2: that I actually do think it's going to turn. It'll 38 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 2: be more like a traditional export lead recovery, and we 39 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 2: haven't had one of those for a while, so we're 40 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 2: not very familiar with it. But with an export lead recovery, 41 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 2: all contends to arrive last to the party, and we're 42 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 2: seeing that here and it's at the moment it's a 43 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 2: it's a bit patchy everywhere else, but it's starting to 44 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 2: come and I think property will be the last to arrive, 45 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 2: largely because we went so nuts during COVID with all 46 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 2: the stimulus that we got. Our property prices up forty 47 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 2: percent and Australians only went up thirty percent, which was 48 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 2: bad enough. So you know we've got that hangover to 49 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 2: deal with. 50 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: Still, do people take that into account when you talk 51 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: about things like a brain drain? Do people go to 52 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: Australia because they go look at the economy and I mean, 53 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:35,639 Speaker 1: I can cite you a million things with the Australian 54 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: economy that are miserable, like the cost of a house 55 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: and the cost of groceries and all the other problems 56 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 1: they've got. But do people actually think about that or 57 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 1: it's just a it's a vibe. 58 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 2: Well it's sort of a vibe, but it's always based 59 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 2: on something, right. So we had a similar sort of 60 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 2: experience when I was in government when we met the 61 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 2: Cannabal earthquakes and a lot of people, particularly from the 62 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 2: South Island left after the Cannibal earthquakes. We had very 63 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 2: bad immigration statistics and then the economy came right and 64 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 2: actually came better than the Australian economy, and yes, people 65 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 2: started to come home. It took a little while for 66 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 2: it to happen, and they stayed Togo. Actually it's better 67 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 2: at home. And I remember going over there and doing 68 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 2: those job expose we did and to encourage people to 69 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 2: come back from Australia because we needed them. And the 70 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 2: Australian media was really confused. It was like why would 71 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 2: you why would people move to New Zealand And that 72 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 2: was the early stages of that, but over time it 73 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 2: happened and I think we're heading into a similar period now. 74 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 1: Politics of it all makes for interesting reading, doesn't it. 75 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 1: I mean, this time's nicely for an election year. 76 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 2: Well I could do. Whether it comes in time to 77 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 2: help the government more the normal or less than normal, 78 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 2: that'll be the That'll be the test. Really. I mean 79 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 2: it's the public are we're looking for proof that things 80 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 2: are working. And it has been a really long, really 81 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 2: tough recession for going back three or four years now, 82 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 2: so it has been really difficult. So everybody will be 83 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 2: a bit cynical and you can see that whenever there's 84 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 2: a green tinge on the economy, Well, that's going to 85 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 2: go bad again, and it did happen this year because 86 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 2: the US tariffs really snuffed out the sort of recovery. 87 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 2: And of course he President Trump hangs over the world 88 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 2: economy again now his behavior with the Federal Reserve. So 89 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 2: that's the wild card in all of this is do 90 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 2: we actually get sufficiently settled economic conditions that our recovery 91 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 2: really does take hold. 92 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,719 Speaker 1: Good stuff. Appreciate you times almost Stephen Joyce, former Finance 93 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:37,919 Speaker 1: minister of course. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, 94 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 1: listen live to news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, 95 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.